Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Exhibit 2-2: The Real Estate System: Interaction of the Space Market, Asset Market, & Development Industry
SPACE MARKET
SUPPLY
(Landlords)
ADDS
NEW
LOCAL
&
NATIONAL
ECONOMY
DEMAND
(Tenants)
RENTS
&
OCCUPANCY
FORECAST
FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT
INDUSTRY
ASSET MARKET
IF
YES
IS
DEVELPT
PROFITABLE
?
CONSTR
COST
INCLU
LAND
SUPPLY
(Owners
Selling)
CASH
FLOW
PROPERTY
MARKET
VALUE
MKT
REQD
CAP
RATE
CAPI
TAL
MKTS
DEMAND
(Investors
Buying)
= Causal flows.
= Information gathering & use.
Development is important:
From a finance & investment perspective, but also
From an urban development (physical, social, environmental)
perspective
Development is a multi-disciplinary, iterative process . . .
Political and
Legal Analysis
Physical and
Design Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Market and
Competitive
Analysis
Image by MIT OCW.
R
I
S
K
C
U
M
U
L
A
T
I
V
E
VERY
HIGH RISK
e.g.: 40%
OCC
I
N
V
E
R
S
E
HIGH RISK
I
N
V
E
S
T
M
E
N
T
$
A
S
S
U
C
C
MODERATE RISK
E
e.g.: 10% OCC
S
LOW RISK
S
e.g.: 20%
OCC
e.g.: 8% OCC
CONSTRUCTION
Time
LAND
PURCHASE
SHELL
COMPLETION
Time 0
Time T1
CUMULATIVE
INVESTMENT
LEASE-UP &
TENANT FINISHES
STABILIZED
OPERATION
DEVLPMT
COMPLETION
Time T2
P
R
O
B
5
RISK LEVEL
SOURCES OF
CAPITAL:
E
DEVLPT CAPITAL
Betw 0 & T
FROM COMMERCIAL
BANKS:
TRADITIONAL
CONSTRUCTION LOAN
DEBT,
FROM Time 0 TO Time T1;
AND/OR
MINI-PERM LOAN DEBT
FROM Time 0 TO Time T2.
$
C
U
M
U
L
A
T
I
V
E
PERMANENT FINANCE
Beyond Time T
FROM LICs, PFs, PRIV
EQUITY :
L.T. EQUITY
OR
COMMERCIAL
MORTGAGE (EITHER
CMBS CONDUIT OR
WHOLE LOAN)
I
N
V
E
S
T
M
E
N
T
CONSTRUCTION
Time
EXTERNAL EQUITY
&/OR MEZZ DEBT
INVESTORS:
OPPTY FUNDS,
INSTNS, FOREIGN
INVSTRS, WEALTHY
INDIVIDUALS, REITS
ENTREPRENEURIAL
DEVLPR SEED EQUITY
O
R
D
E
R
O
F
O
R
D
E
R
P
R
I
O
R
I
T
Y
O
F
I
N
V
E
S
T
M
E
N
T
I
N
P
A
Y
B
A
C
K
STABILIZED
OPERATION
LAND
PURCHASE
SHELL
COMPLETION
DEVLPMT
COMPLETION
Time 0
Time T1
Time T2
0%
Entitlem e nt R is k
Development Risk
30%
C o ns truc tio n R is k
33%
39%
45%
52%
Le a s ing/S a le s R is k
70%
C re dit R is k
82%
C a pital M a rke t R is k
P ric ing R is k
100%
Eve nt R is k
OngoingRisk
Valuatio n R is k
P a rtne rs hip R is k
Ope ra ting Expe ns e R is k
Partnership Risk
Capital Market Risk
Entitlement Risk
Valuation Risk
Credit Risk
Event Risk
Leasing/Sales Risk
100%
80%
82%
33%
30%
20%
52%
45%
40%
ea
nd
nd
ut
llo
Se
g/
sin
a
ts
en
n
tio
n
io
ct
em
itl
nt
c
tru
ns
co
u
str
on
eL
et
pl
om
-C
La
le
al
ce
en
ec
et
pl
om
-C
m
om
-C
re
ui
cq
e
iz
al
in
-F
-A
-20%
Loss
0%
0%
70%
60%
39%
Profit
r
pe
it s
m
Entitlement Risk
Risk of obtaining appropriate land entitlements, construction permits, and possibly zoning variances.
2.
Construction Risk
Materials pricing risk that the cost of materials may change significantly from the original construction
Scheduling risk that planned construction completion could be prolonged due to weather delays, labor
disputes, material delivery delays, etc.
3.
Leasing/Sales Risk
Risk that forecasted absorption (leasing or unit sales) volume will not be realized.
Risk that early termination clauses would be invoked or that the property becomes encumbered by a longlease with below-market rent escalation provisions (frequency and/or amount of increase).
Risk of a market-driven restructure of leasing or sales commission rates.
4.
5.
Credit Risk
Risk that pre-lease tenants and/or tenants industry segment is negatively impacted during development.
6.
Continued . . .
7.
8.
Pricing Risk
Supply Risk risk that unanticipated competitive supply will enter the market before lease-up or sellout is
achieved resulting in short-, mid-, or long-term concessions, absorption, pricing, etc.
Real Estate Cycle Issues risk that rental rates may be negatively affected by changes in market
dynamics.
9.
Event Risk
Risk of a material physical, economic, or other event occurring that significantly impacts asset operations
value. Weather, discovery of previously unknown environmental contamination, exodus of major employment
providers, and terrorism comprise a sampling of such events.
10.
Valuation Risk
Risk that a lack of applicable, current market data exists to accurately value the subject property.
Risk that a lack of competency exists with the appraiser engaged to specifically address issues of property
geography, valuation analytics, market research, etc.
11
Operating Budget:
Covers stabilized period of building operation after leaseup is complete;
Typically developed for a single typical projected stabilized
year;
Relates to the BENEFIT side of the NPV Equation.
14
16
Lease-Up
Stabilized Operation
Construction Loan
Bridge Loan
Permanent Mortgage
Commercial
Bank
Comm. Bank
Insur Co.
C.O.
Financing:
Source:
17
Example:
Commitment for $2,780,100 of future advances in a
construction loan to cover $2,750,000 of actual construction
costs over a three month period. 8% interest (nom.ann.),
compounded monthly, beginning of month draws:
Month
New Draw
Current Interest
$500,000
$3,333.33
$503,333.33
$750,000
$8,355.55
$1,261,688.88
$1,500,000
$18,411.26
$2,780,100.14
and so on
Construction schedule must estimate the amount and timing of the draws.
The accumulated interest (8333+8356+18411 = $30,100 in this case) is a
very real part of the total cost of construction. AKA Financing Cost.
Typically a commitment fee is also required, up front (in cash).
19
21
Example:
Class B office building rehab project: 30,000 SF (of which 27,200 NRSF).
Acquisition cost = $660,000;
Rehab construction budget: $400,000 hard costs + $180,000 soft costs.
Estimated operating costs (to landlord) = $113,000/yr.
Projected stabilized occupancy = 95%.
Permanent loan available on completion @ 11.5% (20-yr amort) with 120% DSCR.
Estimated feasible rents on completion = $10/SF.
What major
issue is left
out here?
Lender will
base mortg on
Mkt Val, not
constr cost.
22
Example:
Office building 35,000 SF (GLA), 29,750 SF (NRA) (85% Efficiency Ratio).
$12/SF (/yr) realistic rent (based on market analysis, pre-existing tenant wants space).
Assume 8% vacancy (typical in market, due to extra space not pre-leased).
Preliminary design construction cost budget (hard + soft) = $2,140,000.
Projected operating expenses (not passed through) = $63,000.
Permanent mortgage on completion available at 9% (20-yr amort), 120% DCR.
Site has been found for $500,000: Is it feasible?
Potential Gross Revenue = 29,750 x $12 = $ 357,000
Less Vacancy at 8% =
- 28,560
= Effective Gross Income
$ 328,440
Less Operating Expenses
- 63,000
= Net Operating Income
$ 265,000
1.20 = Required Debt Svc:
$ 221,200
12 = Monthly debt svc:
$ 18,433
Supportable mortgage amount =
$ 2,048,735
0.75 LTV = Min. Reqd. Value:
$ 2,731,647
Less Construction Cost
- 2,140,000
--------------------- Supportable site acquisition cost:
$ 591,647.
18433 1
=
1
.09 / 12 1 + .0912
240
$500000 =
(1 + 0.11)1
(1 + 0.06)1
= $2387000 $2019000 $500000
= $132000
=
$2650000 $2140000
$500000
1.11
1.06
27