TURMOIL IN EGYPT: A CRITICAL

PERSPECTIVE

JUMAIDAH MOHD GAMBAR (MD

121055 )
SAHEEDA SALEH (MD )
UMMI HURAIZAH RAMIN (MD
121015)
SECTION : 2
SEMESTER 2 2013/2014

INTRODUCTION - EGYPT

Picture 1: Map of Arab Countries

Egypt is a transcontinental country spanning the northeast corner of Africa and

southwest corner of Asia, via land bridge formed by the Sinai Peninsula. The Sinai Peninsula
is the northeaster extremity of Egypt and adjoins Israel and the Gaza Strip on the east. The
Sinai is administratively divided into two mu fa as (governorates):Shaml Sn in the
north and Janb Sn in the south. The peninsula was occupied by Israeli forces during
the Six-Day War of June 1967 but was returned to Egypt in 1982 under the terms of the peace
treaty concluded between those countries in 1979 (Wikimedia, 2014). Egypt is considered to
be a regional and middle power, with significant cultural, political, and military influence in
North Africa, the Middle East and the Muslim world. (Andrew F. Cooper, Agata Antkiewicz
and Timothy M. Shaw, 2007).

CRONOLOGY TURMOIL IN EGYPT

Protests started on Tuesday, January 25, when -- inspired by the successful revolution
in Tunisia -- thousands began taking to the streets to protest poverty, rampant unemployment,
government corruption and autocratic governance of President Hosni Mubarak, who has ruled
the country for 30 years. These were the first protests on such a large scale in Egypt since the
1970s. On 11 February 2011, Mubarak resigned and fled Cairo. Jubilant celebrations broke
out in Cairo's Tahrir Square at the news. (Imam, 2011) The Egyptian military then assumed
the power to govern.(Kirkpatrick, 2010). As Knell (2011) said that Mohamed Hussein
Tantawi, chairman of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, became the de facto interim
head of state (Hope & Swinford, 2011). On 13 February 2011, the military dissolved the
parliament and suspended the constitution (Bowen, 2011).

A constitutional referendum was held on 19 March 2011. On 28 November 2011,

Egypt held its first parliamentary election since the previous regime had been in power.
Turnout was high and there were no reports of major irregularities or violence (Memmott,
2011). Mohamed Morsi was elected president on 24 June 2012 (Ben Wedeman, Dan Rivers,
Holly Yan, Mohamed Fadel Fahmy and Ian Lee, 2013). On 2 August 2012, Egypt's Prime
Minister Hisham Qandil announced his 35 member cabinet comprising 28 newcomers
including four from the Muslim Brotherhood (Aiba, 2012). Liberal and secular groups
walked out of the constituent assembly because they believed that it would impose strict
Islamic practices, while Muslim Brotherhood backers threw their support behind Morsi.

On 22 November 2012, President Morsi issued a declaration immunizing his decrees

from challenge and seeking to protect the work of the constituent assembly (Knell, 2012).
The move has led to massive protests and violent action throughout Egypt (Spencer, 2012).
On 5 December 2012, tens of thousands of supporters and opponents of president Morsi
clashed, in what was described as the largest violent battle between Islamists and their foes
since the country's revolution (Charles Levinson and Matt Bradley, 2012). Mohamed Morsi
offered a "national dialogue" with opposition leaders but refused to cancel the December
2012 constitutional referendum (Fleishman, 2012).

On 30 June 2013, massive protests were organized across Egypt against Morsi's rule,
leading to the ousting of Morsi by the military on 3 July 2013, where the military removed
Morsi from power in a coup and installed an interim government (D.Kirkpatrick, 2013). On 4
July 2013, 68-year old Egyptian judge Adly Mansour was sworn in as acting president over
the new government following the removal of Morsi. On 18 January 2014, the interim
government institutionalised a new constitution. The constitution was supported by 98.1% by
a voter turnout of only 38.6% (Falconcrest, 2014).

ASSESSING THE EGYPT TURMOIL FROM THE CRITICAL PERSPECTIVE

The goal of many Muslims is to establish a worldwide community of believers under

an Islamic theocracy. Egypt would be the grand prize for Islamic revolutionaries. With 80
million people, it is the Arab world's most populous country. After Israel, it also has the
region's greatest military capability. It also controls one of the world's key shipping choke

points, the Suez Canal, through which up to 2 million barrels of oil pass per day to hungry
Western markets. With its storied history and cultural legacy, Egypt holds a special place in
the minds of Muslims worldwide. If Egypt was to turn from its secular government and
embrace Islamic fundamentalism on a national leveland polls show that many of its people
lean in that directionit would be a huge boon to the revolutionary cause.

And make no mistake; the same methods that brought revolutionaries into power in
Iran are very much at work in Egypt and other parts of the Middle East today. They first
spread dissatisfaction and unrest, leading to chaos and uncertainty, causing the people to cry
out for solutions and stability, after which they step in as the solution to the very problems
they themselves createdand a totalitarian state is born. The only difference is that this time
the authoritarian state is religious in nature. Of course, it doesn't stop with just one country. If
Egyptthe Arab world's most powerful and populous countrywere to fall to such
revolutionaries, it would greatly embolden similar movements in other nearby states.

Like falling dominoes, one can easily envision the toppling of Arab monarchies and
strongmen in Libya, Algeria and Morocco to the west and Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen,
Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq to the east and
northeast. In a matter of a few weeks to a few days, the entire Middle East as we know it
could be radically transformed. Rather than one terror-exporting Iran eagerly pursuing
nuclear weapons, America and the West potentially could be faced with a dozen or more like
it! If this sounds too far-fetched to be true, remember that events like those leading up to the
expulsion of the rulers in Tunisia and Egypt are also already taking place in Jordan, Algeria
and Yemen!

Until the rise of militant Islam, none of this seemed remotely possible. But with the
Iranian Revolution and the oft-stated goal of uniting believers under the banner of Islam, we
now see the increasing likelihood of some sort of Islamic movement sweeping across the
nations of the Middle East and uniting Muslims against the West. To them, Europe remains a
grave threat to Islam. Even today, Islamic radicals like Osama bin Laden repeatedly refer to
Western influence in the Middle East as a continuation of the Crusades, which they view as
an attempt to exterminate Islam that is still ongoing.

Other Muslim figures openly talk of capturing Europe for Islam. Many would prefer
that this come through peaceful immigration and high birthrates (and Europe is wrestling
with the problem of millions upon millions of Muslim immigrants and their burgeoning
progeny). But they are prepared for the assimilation of Europe to come through war
and jiad if necessary. In today's current atmosphere with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
threatening the West and pursuing nuclear weapons, with Islamic fundamentalism and
radicalism spreading, with conflict growing between Islam and the West, and with the
possibility of secularized Arab governments falling to Islamistssuddenly this clash of
civilizations and another open war in the Middle East doesn't sound so far-fetched at all.

Yes, we definitely need to keep a close eye on the Middle East. It is unclear how the
current turmoil will affect Egypt. Perhaps peace and calm will win out temporarily. Or things
could turn very bad very quickly. Either way, even if it doesn't happen now, these recent
events show just how volatile the situation is in many of these countries and how quickly
circumstances could change at any time perhaps leading into the very events foretold by
Daniel under God's inspiration. It is interesting to take into account of various studies in

different perspectives related to the fall of Mohamed Morsi in Egypt. Some people regard it
as a failure of democracy, or on account of the military strength in the government system of
the Pyramid state, or turned out to Muslim Brotherhood (IM) has no strong roots of politics,
and others.

Even Prof. Rodney Shakespeare assessed all this was due to the dominance of the
Israeli regime having been destabilizing the Middle East. Assessing the Egyptian turmoil in
the early fall of Morsi is like shooting a moving target. It means that there were probably
other shocking events regarding the development of turbulent and unpredictable political
situations. The overthrow of Morsi from one-year power by the Military Junta "coup" was not
a stand-alone factor.

SIMPLE SUMMARY OF MORSIS DECREES:

The presidents decrees are indisputable until a new constitution and a parliament are
in place.

An extension of the grace period for the drafting of a constitution for an extra 2
months

The Shura Council (The upper house of Egypts bicameral parliament) and
Constituent assembly cant be dissolved and any cases against them are to be dropped.

Re-trials in the protester killings

The General Prosecutor to be replaced by a new, Tarek Ibrahim Abdallah, for 4 years

The president has full discretion, whenever there is a threat on security, to act within
the guidelines of the law

Monetary compensation for injured and deceased revolutionaries

There are 2 different views on these decisions from the public:

1.

A view that the president is awarding himself more powers and is accused of
installing a dictatorship. This mainly how activists see things.

2.

The decisions are revolutionary and represent a clean-up to the ex-regime

infrastructure. This is the view mainly supported by the Islamists.

Since the controversial announcements, different political forces have been conducting
meetings to craft a response to the decisions of Morsi.

The consensus is that Morsis decisions are not acceptable. Heres an overview of the actions:

A statement of the civil political forces led by Hamdeen Sabahy, Moh. Baradie and
Amr Moussa demands (i) to revoke the latest constitutional declaration, (ii) to dissolve
the constitutional committee and (iii) to form a social justice committee to get back the
rights of the revolution victims. The statement was read by the head of Egypts judicial
clubs and called for a million man march to correct the presidents actions.

The Supreme Court announced that they will continue looking into the cases of the
constituent assembly and Shura dissolution

Islamists (Salafis and MB) are calling on their crowd to support Morsis decisions

What this seems to boil down to is a rather big spat between Morsi and the judiciary.
Theyre not going to take this lying down, and based on their actions since Morsi took office,
theyve consistently shown that they dont shy away from direct confrontation (parliament,
former prosecutor general, etc) and Morsi has lost both those battles. Theres talk of a general
strike by all district attorneys, add to that if they decide to escalate it to a strike of judge, it
will evoke a state of lawlessness and an untenable situation. Morsi ultimately, and against his
better judgment, swore his oath in front of the Supreme Constitutional Court. Non-Islamist
political forces are not in strong position, but key figures such as Hamdeen, Abo el Fetouh
and to a lesser extent Baradei, have the ability to mobilize supporters and thats also another
pressure card.

Over the weekend some important developments happened:

The general assembly of the judges club denounced the declaration and called for
suspension of work, in addition to the attorneys suspension of work.

The Muslim Brotherhood is calling on their supporters for a march to back Morsis
decisions on Tuesday

Violence has picked up a bit of momentum, mostly on the side streets, but Tahrir
Square has kept its calm

Civil groups form a national rescue front led by Sabbahi El Barradei and Moussa to
defeat the constitutional declaration.
The pressure is on with the decisions from the judges, the resignation of the

presidents advisors and, most importantly, the extreme consent that consolidation of power is

unacceptable, the president could consider doing some concessions with the political forces
to remove the deadlock that is currently in place. The IMF has its much needed loan to use as
a major bargaining card to deal with Morsi. Financial markets will put the real cost of playing
political games into perspective for the inexperienced politicians that Morsi represents.
Various Gulf States have financially assisted Egypt during its transition. They will probably
demand stability and will not want Egypt to distance itself from the world by digging itself
into an ideological hole. The will probably have their way with Morsi in the end.

EGYPT U.S RELATION IN TURMOIL: EGYPT FOREIGN MINISTER

Picture 2: Egypt's Minister of Foreign Affairs Nabil Fahmy addresses the 68th United Nations
General Assembly at UN headquarters in New York, September 28, 2013.

(Reuters) - Relations between the United States and Egypt are now in turmoil and the
entire Middle East could suffer, the Egyptian foreign minister said in remarks made a week
after Washington moved to curtail military aid to Cairo. Nabil Fahmy told state-run Al-

Ahram newspaper that Egypt had been dependent on U.S. aid for too long but Washington
was wrong to assume the Cairo government would always follow its line. "We are now in a
delicate state reflecting the turmoil in the relationship and anyone who says otherwise is not
speaking honestly," he said in comments published on Wednesday. U.S. officials said the aid
cut reflected Washington's unhappiness with Egypt's path since the army overthrew freelyelected President Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood on July 3. Egypt has already
criticized the decision and suggested it could turn to other countries for military aid, possibly
Russia.

Egyptian security forces have cracked down hard on Islamists since the army seized
power, killing hundreds and arresting thousands, including Morsi and other leaders accused
of inciting or carrying out violence. Muslim Brotherhood leaders say they face more severe
repression than under veteran autocrat Hosni Mubarak, who was toppled by a popular
uprising in 2011. The army-backed government calls the Brotherhood terrorists. Islamists
accuse the military of staging a coup and sabotaging democratic gains made since Mubarak's
demise. Egypt has long been the second-largest recipient of U.S. aid after Israel and its
military - the largest in the Arab world - has worked closely with Washington for decades.
The United States now faces a policy dilemma - how to promote democracy while not
alienating an Arab allies which has a peace treaty with Israel and controls the strategic Suez
Canal.
Fahmy said an extended period of instability in ties would "reflect negatively on the
entire region, including American interests". The current situation was not solely the result of
the U.S. decision to withhold aid, he said. "The truth is that the problem goes back much
earlier, and is caused by the dependence of Egypt on the U.S. aid for 30 years. (The aid)

made us choose the easy option and not diversify our options," he said. The long-standing
military relationship caused Washington to wrongly assume that Egypt would always go
along with its policies and goals, Fahmy said.

TURN TO RUSSIA?

Most worrying for the United States is the possibility that the army will turn to a rival
country for military aid. Egypt's army is exploring its options. Military sources told Reuters
last week that the army is planning to diversify its source of weapons, including a possible
turn to Russia. The government has insisted Egypt would not bow to U.S. pressure, saying it
found American policy strange at a time when the country was facing what it calls a war
against terrorism. U.S. military aid to Cairo, put at $1.3 billion a year, was born out of the
1979 peace treaty between Egypt and Israel.

The U.S. State Department made clear it was not cutting off all aid and would
continue military support for counterterrorism and security in the Sinai, bordering Israel,
where Al Qaeda-inspired militants have stepped up attacks on soldiers and police since
Morsi's overthrow. Egypt's Western allies had been trying to persuade the government and
Muslim Brotherhood to engage in an inclusive political process, but neither side
demonstrated enough flexibility to ease the crisis.

VIEW ON EGYPT TURMOIL BY OTHER COUNTRIES

JAPAN

The press appears preoccupied with Japans domestic politics, paying surprisingly
little attention to events in Egypt. The Asahi Shimbun, however, has explicitly called for
President Hosni Mubarak to resign immediately. It also points out that Japan is one of the
main providers of foreign aid to Egypt, and urges the Japanese government to work with
Western countries in pressing for a democratic transition in Egypt.

CHINA

In China, their Foreign Ministry had claimed that they are ultimately give respect with
the decision of Egypt people and Chinas media expressed their doubts in previous year of
2011 that the revolution happened in Egypt could lead to democratic change.

Chinas

government has drastically put effort to block keyword searches on Egypt issue on their
internet. Moreover, Chinas official commentary and reporting are restraining any prospects
of democratic change. According to Global Times, it runs headlines of its editorial mentioned
that Color revolutions will not bring about real democracy. Global Times also predicted
that the Egyptian people will soon cannot tolerate with their army and wondering how the
country of Egypt can escape from its post revolution chaos. Besides that, the Communist
Party sponsored English daily said that Whether the democratic system is applicable in other

countries is in question, as more and more unsuccessful examples arise. One of the editor
and columnist of the People Daily, Li Hong Mei, predicts that the Muslim brotherhood power
in Egypt may give destitute nightmare to Washingtons Middle East policy if they do
intervene into this Egyptian Turmoil which will turn out the political status of Egypt towards
radical and ignite the extremist forces.

IRAN

While in Iran, their official rhetoric spins the Egyptian uprising as an Islamic
movement and interpreting the fall of Hosni Mubarak and solidarity of Egyptian are symbols
of loss of influences from America towards this region which had support at Hosnis back for
decades even on disappointment of his own people. Moreover, there have other op-ed spreads
that the Western powers are trying to take advantage on the domino effect of regime which
would change the Arab world to collapse and attempt to substitute it with fake democracies
which will run by puppet rulers that obligated to their masters in the West.
RUSSIA

In Russia, its official reaction towards this Egyptian Turmoil is unspectacular. Their
editor from Global Affairs explained that Russian does not have skills or specialties of its
regime to influencing the situation that happened in Egypt. Besides that, there have other
Russias analyst feature Kremlins cautious stance to its worries that turmoil in Egypt could
trigger similar movements as happened in Eurasia. In meanwhile, the reporters have voiced

out their opinions and warned that the Middle East would see the beginning of fundamentalist
regimes which America is endures responsibility for the Egyptian rebellion. A former Duma
deputy commented that the Egyptian style, youth-led movements would not give an impact to
Russian domestic politics.

INDIA

In India, their editorial in leading newspaper expressed their strong support for the
democracy in Egypt state that has lost all legitimacy and claimed that they would witnessing
a transformation of Egypt in modern history of West Asia. Moreover, The Economic Times
wrote that once the Arab nations gets chances to be as democracy nation replacing the
liberalism nation, other democracy countries such as India and US should embraced the
change. Former Foreign Secretary of India, Salman Haidar writes that their sympathies are
towards the struggle of the Arabs who have come out from the disobedience of allegedly
immovable rulers in Tunisia, Yemen and other parts of West Asia. However, Indian are
worries about the rise of the Islamist regime in Egypt and its impact onto the Indian domestic
security. A, professor at Centre For Policy Research, Ved Marwah, notifies that if the Islamic
forces are succeed, it may cause dangerous situation which disturbing Indian external
relations with the Arab countries where they have vital interests.

MALAYSIA

In Malaysia, the Deputy Foreign Minister, Datuk Hamzah Zainuddin said that they
should understand and realise that Malaysia has the potential to develop in terms of politics
and economics due to this Egyptian turmoil. Malaysian government urged all parties involved
to negotiate a peaceful solution to bring back economic stability as a step to find the solution
towards Egyptian turmoil. Malaysia also refused to involve in any disputation in Egypt but
willing to send military back up and food supply.

CONCLUSION

The turmoil in Egypt over the past two and a half years has a devastating effect on the
country as a whole. This recently revealed revolutionary spirit has disrupted the country
while their people have risen to an authoritative and repressive regime and dethroned their
president who failed to convey what he had promised to his people Due to this, authoritative
military led and appointed transitional government which already begun to resort the
dictatorial tactics used by Hosni Mubarak. The democracy of Egypt will take many years or
never happened to establish if the current trend continues with transgressing into a repressive
military government. Overcoming prejudices is important to solve this turmoil and
perceptions of the power of the people in Egypt have changed dramatically leading them
out of repression and throw them into the makings of an unstable government.

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