Coastal developments and climate change

By
F. H. Mughal
The beauty of coastal areas has always attracted human beings the world over. Most major cities are
located near the coasts. Being home to a one-fourth of worlds population, coastal areas are hub of
economic activities and tourist destinations; and are also popular settlement areas.
Over a century back, the environmental pressures did not exist, so the establishment of settlements
near the coasts was justified. Growing populations, later on, initiated some environmental decline, but
the natural assimilative capacity of the coastal ecosystems was able to withstand the low-level
environmental degradation. Large-scale urbanization and industrialization of coastal areas resulted in
significant environmental degradation. Responsible cities were able to safeguard the coastal areas
through rational settlement policies and establishment of efficient infrastructure, principally the
wastewater treatment systems.
Coastal developments now face major hazards that seriously threaten their existence. Climate change,
natural hazards, extreme weather patterns, flooding, erosion, land subsidence, and most of all, the sea
level rise, will exert significant pressure on the coastal communities. High sea level rise, alone or in
combination with land subsidence, has the potential to wipe out the coastal settlements, seriously
questioning the rationale for establishing new settlements in coastal areas.
The major question is the extent to which the sea level will rise in future. There is some debate on how
high the sea level will rise by 2100. The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
projects sea level rise to be in the range of 18 to 59 centimeters - cm (0.6 to 2 feet) by 2100. Many
scientists and coastal experts find the IPCC projections flawed, as the projections did not include melting
of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. If they are taken into account, the global sea levels
could well rise 3 to 6 feet.
The IPCC, however, released a report in September 2013, in which the estimate of sea level was revised.
The new figures of IPCC for the sea level rise are 28 to 98 cm (nearly 1 to over 3 feet), by 2100. This is
nearly 50 per cent higher than the 2007 estimates.
Rob Young of Western Carolina University and Orrin Pilkey of the Duke University, and authors of The
Rising Sea, estimate seven feet rise in sea level by 2100. Coastal developments, in no way, would be
able to withstand a seven-foot rise in sea level. Scientists say that the coastal areas should be prepared
for seven feet rise. The authors opine that the continued development of many low-lying coastal areas is
foolhardy and irresponsible. They recommend immediately prohibition on the construction of high-rise
buildings and major infrastructure in areas vulnerable to future sea level rise.
A NOAA (US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) report of December 2012 says with very
high confidence (greater than 9 in 10 chance) that global mean sea level will rise at least 0.2 meters (8
inches) and no more than 2.0 meters (6.6 feet) by 2100.
In addition to almost permanent flooding in the coastal areas, the high sea level rise will salinized water
supplies; impair food quality; affect livelihoods; increase mosquito-borne infections, diarrhoeal diseases,
skin and eye infections. Sea level rise will create millions of environmental refugees. It will be more
expensive for people to insure their homes in coastal areas, due to high risks involved. Insurance is a
mechanism through which people protects their assets against disasters. On the other hand, the coastal
developments create impacts that reduce the ability of natural systems to react to changing climate.
Making coastal areas resilient to the effects of sea level rise would involve huge investments. Stephane
Hallegatte of the World Bank, Robert J. Nicholls of University of Southampton and colleagues, assessed
the risks of future flood losses in 136 large coastal cities (Aug 2013), and found that the cost to the
coastal cities from flooding is expected to rise to $1 trillion in 2050. A recent study estimated the costs
of adapting to just a one-metre sea level rise in the US would amount to US$156 billion (3% of GNP).
Most countries don't have this kind of money to spend.
Even the huge investments made for adaptation and protection would not be able to withstand the
onslaught of a seven-foot rise in sea level. Besides, it makes no sense to spent billions on the
infrastructure to protect the recent investments in developments in the coastal areas. It is a common
saying, and it is true that, most squirrels plan for the future better than humans do.