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Concluding, there is
a strong need for MME and PPE studies into
bistability of the AMOC, accounting for freshwater
influx from rivers and melting of the Greenland ice
sheet. To date, these intercomparisons have proven
too computationally expensive, but EMICs can provide
an accurate alternative (Stouffer et al. 2006, Gregory
et al. 2005). Stommels salt-advection feedback is an
important link which is hard to trace in the more
comprehensive AOGCMs and their ensemble
simulations, because of their dedication to presentclimate stability and overall underappreciation of
high-integration processes of feedback, which EMICs
do take into account (Hofmann and Rahmstorf 2009,
Claussen et al. 2002).
11
4 4 A
1 1 A
q
T4 S4
T1 S1
V4
V1 = Ah1
v
w
T3 S3
T2 S2
V3
V2
Figure 11. Setup of four-box salt-advective model with separate variables and entrainment along a
simulated thermocline. Entrainment can work to either counteract or contribute to the overall flow q.
(T
T )
dT
= (T T ) =
dt
V
dt
T1 V
1
V
1
=
V
1
=
V
1
=
V
(T T ) + (T T ) + ||(T T ) +
(S S ) + (S S ) + ||(S S )
(S S ) + (S S ) + ||(S S )
(S S ) + (S S ) + ||(S S ) +
dA
( S )
V
p =k
p =k
= h + h
= h + h
(k + k ) = ( h + h ) ( h + h )
(k + k ) = ( h + h ) ( h + h )
Now, we can reduce both bottom and top flow to a
single resistance parameter:
cA
( T )
V
(T T ) + (T T ) + ||(T T )
k=k +k :
(T T ) + (T T ) + ||(T T )
(T T ) + (T T ) + ||(T T ) +
dA
( S )
V
(S S ) + (S S ) + ||(S S ) +
p
p
p p
p p
dT
dt
dT
dt
dT
dt
dT
dt
1
V
1
=
V
1
=
V
1
=
V
dtqT2
(dtT + T V dtT )
V
dS
dt
dS
dt
dS
dt
dS
dt
cA
( T )
V
12
= (1 T + S )
Hz
(1 + z )t
Hz
d=
(1 + z )t
c=
(T h + S h T h + S h )
(T h + S h T h + S h )
Az
( + R )
(1 + z )
A
( + R )
+
(1 + z )
A
( + R )
(1 + z )
Az
( + R )
(1 + z )
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
kcA
=
H
We assume H to represent the height of each main
basin (in this model both basins are of equal height):
Hz
(1 + z
H
h =
(1 + z
H
h =
(1 + z
Hz
h =
(1 + z
q
c
h =
S
=
d
c
We further define:
R=
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
d
)
)
)
)
13
1
h
1
=
h
1
=
h
1
=
h
=
1
h
1
=
h
1
=
h
1
=
h
||
(
h
||
(
( ) + ( ) +
h
||
(
( ) + ( ) +
h
||
(
( ) + ( ) +
h
( ) + ( ) +
||
(
h
||
(
( ) + ( ) +
h
||
(
( ) + ( ) +
h
||
(
( x ) + ( ) +
h
( ) + ( ) +
) + ( )
)
)
) + ( )
) + ( )
)
)
) + ( )
5. Conclusion
We set out to examine two main issues of interest
in the study of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation, and that of climate in general.
Computational capacity limits a systematic
exploration of the parameter space in AOGCMs over
long timescales, and multi-model ensembles lack a
well-defined metric with which to weight individual
models and interpret the acquired mean. An analysis
of the literature suggests a number of possible
solutions, and the presented model exercise seems to
corroborate these conceptually.
The AMOC is potentially in a bistable regime, and
many modelling efforts to date have mostly
considered surface warming to indicate a linear
decrease in AMOC strength in the 21st century.
Freshwater influx from Greenland ice sheet melt and
river runoff could severely influence this seemingly
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the Pycnocline from an Open Ocean Tracer Release Experiment.
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Manabe, S., and R.J. Stouffer, 1995. Simulation of Abrupt Climate Change
Induced by Fresh Water Input to the North Atlantic Ocean. Nature
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Manabe, S., Bryan, K., 1969. Climate Calculations with a Combined OceanAtmosphere Model. Journal of the Athmospheric Sciences 26: 786789.
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[Houghton, J.T., et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, United
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