mean

T
R
B

34.40%
40%
1.15

Long Run Market Share

15.82%

S.D.
35%

4% proportion of customers trying the brand

ers trying the brand

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

T
34.40%
32.67%
34.57%
33.66%
30.93%
33.36%
36.68%
38.77%
39.05%
38.06%
32.58%
27.58%
27.41%
26.07%
28.06%
34.27%
35.14%
43.46%
31.86%
31.40%
29.86%
31.86%
38.91%
35.91%
26.54%
35.15%

Long Run
Share
15.82%
15.03%
15.90%
15.49%
14.23%
15.35%
16.87%
17.83%
17.96%
17.51%
14.99%
12.69%
12.61%
11.99%
12.91%
15.77%
16.16%
19.99%
14.66%
14.44%
13.73%
14.66%
17.90%
16.52%
12.21%
16.17%
15.34% AVERAGE

CROWD SIZE
Average Concessions Expenditure $

MEAN
S.D.
2806
3000

200 people

15.00 per person

Fixed Cost $ 10,000.00

Ticket Price $

10.00 per person

REVENUE FROM TICKETS $ 28,060.00

CONCESSION SALES $ 42,090.00
PROFIT PERCENTAGE

80%

BAND PROFIT $ 46,120.00

14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

Crowd Size
2806
2829
2855
3116
2912
2535
2823
3144
3030
3055
3051
3131
2833
3008
2986
2905
3385
2601
2590
2792
2899
2964
3008
3143
2930
3331

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

46,120.00
46,580.00
47,100.00
52,320.00
48,240.00
40,700.00
46,460.00
52,880.00
50,600.00
51,100.00
51,020.00
52,620.00
46,660.00
50,160.00
49,720.00
48,100.00
57,700.00
42,020.00
41,800.00
45,840.00
47,980.00
49,280.00
50,160.00
52,860.00
48,600.00
56,620.00
49,084.80 AVERAGE

Mean
Year 1

S.D.
100,000.00

Increase Per Year

7%
Year

Sales Volume
1
86,216
2
92,251
3
98,709

NPV

$1,199,478.08

10,000.00

$0.50
Selling Price
$
10.00
$
10.50
$
11.00

5%
Unit Var Cost
$
3.00
$
3.15
$
3.31

10%
Fixed Cost
$
200,000.00
$
220,000.00
$
242,000.00

7% Discount Rate

Total Rev
$
862,162.28
$
968,639.32
$ 1,085,798.55

Total Costs
$
458,648.68
$
510,591.80
$
568,479.88

Total Profit
$
403,513.59
$
458,047.52
$
517,318.67

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

Year 1
86,216.23
107,795.13
103,521.75
103,394.60
91,339.84
82,536.68
103,244.89
113,241.59
90,875.40
89,728.94
91,926.26
96,836.02
117,632.93
86,061.39
102,612.43
106,311.65
92,046.60
87,672.81
107,917.18
94,169.54
105,600.66
101,019.05
99,352.06
94,667.70
92,305.22
91,442.50

NPV
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

1,199,478.08
1,644,013.55
1,555,980.01
1,553,360.61
1,305,026.81
1,123,677.63
1,550,276.42
1,756,213.22
1,295,459.21
1,271,841.58
1,317,107.33
1,418,250.78
1,846,676.90
1,196,288.28
1,537,247.50
1,613,453.24
1,319,586.44
1,229,484.32
1,646,527.83
1,363,320.10
1,598,806.45
1,504,423.23
1,470,082.40
1,373,582.37
1,324,914.21
1,307,141.68
1,444,909.68 AVERAGE

DAY
Current Price $
Mean $
S.D. $

53.00
0.003227
0.026154

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Price
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

53.00
54.13
53.56
52.36
58.38
53.45
58.85
64.83
57.74
60.27
53.57
55.39
49.55
53.39
56.86
56.19
59.35
58.66
72.08
43.60
67.69
55.08
56.97
62.69
58.99
63.65
48.99
64.79
65.50
54.81
55.08

$80.00
$70.00
$60.00
$50.00
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$0

Daily Price Changes

10

15

20

25

30

35

Outsourcing Decision Model

Data
Manufactured in-house
Fixed cost $
Unit variable cost $

50,000
125

Purchased from supplier

Unit cost

#NAME?

Mean
175.00 $

S.D.
12.00

Model

Min
Demand volume

#NAME?

Total manufacturing cost

Total purchased cost

#NAME?
#NAME?

Difference
Decision

#NAME?
#NAME?

800

Most Likely
1400

Max
1700

Outsourcing Decision Model

Data
Manufactured in-house
Fixed cost $
Unit variable cost $

50,000
125

Purchased from supplier

Unit cost $

175.00

Model

Mean
Demand volume

#NAME?

Total manufacturing cost

Total purchased cost

#NAME?
#NAME?

Difference
Decision

#NAME?
#NAME?

Std Dev
1500

500

Revenue

#NAME?

Defection Rate

#NAME?

Mean
$

S.D.
50.00 $

Min

Frequency
Margin
Value

6
40%
#NAME?

5.00

Max
20%

40%

Profit Model
Data
Unit Price
Unit Cost
Fixed Cost
Demand

$40.00
Min
#NAME? $
22.00
Mean
#NAME? $ 400,000.00
Min
#NAME?
35,000.00

Most Likely
Max
$
24.00 $
30.00
S.D.
$ 25,000.00
Most Likely
Max
50,000.00
60,000.00

Model
Unit Price
Quantity Sold
Revenue
Unit Cost
Quantity Produced
Variable Cost
Fixed Cost
Profit

$40.00
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
40000

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
$ 182,221.00 Mean (approximately)
$ 77,072.00 S.D.
1000 n
$ 186,997.97 95% CI Upper Limit
$ 177,444.03 95% CI Lower Limit
Most sensitive to Unit Cost

Moore Pharmaceuticals
Data
Market size
Unit (monthly Rx) revenue $
Unit (monthly Rx) cost $
Discount rate
Project Costs
R&D
Clinical Trials
Total Project Costs

#NAME?
130.00
40.00
9%

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Model
Year
Market growth factor
Market size
Market share growth rate
Market share
Sales

#NAME?
#NAME?

2
3.00%
#NAME?
20.00%
#NAME?
#NAME?

3
3.00%
#NAME?
20.00%
#NAME?
#NAME?

4
3.00%
#NAME?
20.00%
#NAME?
#NAME?

Annual Revenue
Annual Costs
Profit

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Cumulative Net Profit

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

#NAME?

Net Present Value

#NAME?

#NAME?

5
3.00%
#NAME?
20.00%
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?
#NAME?

Newsvendor Model

Data
Selling Price $ 18.00
Cost $ 12.00
Discount Price $ 9.00

Model
Demand #NAME?
Purchase Qty
50
Qty Sold #NAME?
Surplus Qty #NAME?
PROFIT #NAME?

Order Qty = 40

Order Qty = 45

Order Qty = 50

Number of copies

12 purchased

Purchase Cost $
Sales Price $

2.25
5.00

Demand

#NAME?

Number Sold
Number Left Over

#NAME?
#NAME?

Total Cost $
Total Revenue
Total Profit

27.00
#NAME?
#NAME?

RESULTS FOR ORDER QTY = 12

OR ORDER QTY = 12