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ISSN 0976 6499(Online) Volume AND
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ISSN 0976 - 6480 (Print)

ISSN 0976 - 6499 (Online)
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IAEME

HYBRID LAYER OF PROTECTION ANALYSIS AND BOW-TIE ANALYSIS

WITH FUZZY APPROACH FOR QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT
Rachid Ouache1,
1, 2, 3

Ali A.J Adham2,

Noor AzlinnaBinti Azizan3

Faculty of Technology, University Malaysia Pahang, 26300, Malaysia

ABSTRACT
Quantitative risk assessment and reliability are essential issues in modern safety to make
reliable decision. Risk assessment approaches are designed primarily to reduce the existing risk
inherent in engineering system to a tolerable level and maintain it over time. This reduction is often
achieved by successive interposition of several protective barriers between the source of danger,
which can be an industrial process, and potential targets as people, property and environment. Layer
of protection analysis is an approach to estimate the risk by quantifying risk results. A fuzzy set is a
new mathematical tool to model inaccuracy and uncertainty of data based on the surgeon method. In
this study, new model proposed to deal with quantitative risk assessment and precise the severity of
the scenario and determine the safety integrity level SIL based on LOPA and Bow-tie analysis using
fuzzy set, and the results illustrates that this models is more powerful than logical and arithmetic
computation.
Keywords: Quantitative Risk Assessment, Reliability, Layer of Protection Analysis, Bow-Tie
Analysis and Fuzzy Sets.
1. INTRODUCTION
The increasing complexity of engineering system has imposed substantial uncertainties and
imprecise associated with data in risk assessment problems. Reliability of system is the ability to
operate under designated operating conditions for a designated period of time or number of cycles
through a probability. The improve of reliability for prolonging the life of the item based on two
steps essential, on the one hand, study reliability issues and on the other hand, estimate and reduce
the failure rate (Mohammad, 1999; Dasgupta, 1991). Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) for
objective to estimates the outcome event probability of event tree and uses crisp probabilities of
events to estimate the outcome event probability or frequency (Kenarangui, 1991; Lees, 2005;
1

International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976 6480(Print),
ISSN 0976 6499(Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 01-11 IAEME

Ferdous, 2006; A.Nieto-Morote, 2011). The classifications of uncertainty, aleatory and epistemic
uncertainties are the major classes (Thacker and Huyse, 2003; Adam, 2010; ThallesVitelli, 2014;
Mohammad, 1999; H.J. Pasman, 2009; N. Ouazraouia, 2013).Expert systems can be built based on
fuzzy logic and they provide reasonably accurate outcomes useful in systems analysis (LSZL,
2002). Layer of protection analysis LOPA can be used a screening tool for QRA(CCPS, 2001).
In this study, LOPA and Bow-tie analysis using fuzzy logic are proposed to solve problem of
quantitative risk assessment. Fuzzy inference (Sugeno model) is the approach used in this paper; the
frequency of the mitigated scenario is calculated using fault tree analysis and event tree analysis by
generic data for the initiating event frequency and PFD of the independent protection layers
(KambizMokhtari, 2011; Anjuman, 2012; Adam S,2011).
2. FUZZY LAYER OF PROTECTION ANALYSIS
2.1 LAYER OF PROTECTION ANALYSIS LOPA
2.1.1 Definition: Layer of protection analysis is semi-quantitative approach, It can be viewed as a
simplification of the quantitative risk analysis methods using event tree analysis based on selection
and estimation of magnitude the scenarios for enhance the system by the protection needs
(ChunyangWei, 2008; SohrabKhaleghi, 2013).

I
P
L

I
P
L

I
P
L

ConsequenceOccurs

success
SafeOutcome
Initiating Event

success

Undesired but
tolerableoutcome

success
Undesired but
tolerableoutcome

Failure

Failure
Consequenceexceeding
criteria

Failure
Figure.1: Integration Layer of protection analysis in the Event tree analysis
2.1.2 LOPA and Risk Decisions Making
The flow chart shown in Figure.2 illustrates one organization for three approaches qualitative,
semi-quantitative and quantitative risk assessment (CCPS, 2001).
2

International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976 6480(Print),
ISSN 0976 6499(Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 01-11 IAEME
Qualitative study

YES

Is consequence
II ou III ?

LOPA

YES

NO

Ensure initiating events

and IPLs are truly
independent

Is frequency
of consequence > 1/10
years?

YES

NO

YES

Is risk
in immediate action or
action at next
opportunity box?

Is a SIL required
for one or more SIF?

Is frequency of initiating
event understood?

NO
YES
Managemen
t review

Management
review

Is risk
in optional action
box?

YES

NO

NO

Are IPLs and PFDs

understood?
Cost/
benefitanalysis
of alternatives

YES

Full QRA
study on all or
part of the

YES

Is risk
still in immediate action
or action atnext
opportunity box?

NO

NO
Complete study based
on qualitative judgment

Management
review

Complete study based

on LOPA judgment

Complete study Based on

QRA results

Figure.2: Flowchart shows the relationship between Qualitative approach, semi-quantitative and
Quantitative risk assessment
2.1.3 Determining the Frequency of Scenarios
The following is the general procedure for calculating the frequency for are lease scenario
with a specific consequence endpoint.





 
 
  
  
    

 



 
  


  


 
   2

1
3
4

2.1.4 Classification of consequence: The outcomes prediction of damage can be by experimental

values or simulated values available for the chemicals.

Consequence
class
1 and 2
3
4
5

Table.1: Definition of categories of consequence

Plant
Community
Environment
personnel
No lost time
No hazard
No notification
Single injury
Odour /noise
Permit violation
>1 injury
One or more injuries
Serious offsite impact
Fatality

One or more severe injuries

Serious offsite impact

International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976 6480(Print),
ISSN 0976 6499(Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 01-11 IAEME

Table.2: Risk tolerance criteria

Consequence category
Category Category Category Category
1
2
3
4
Not acceptable

Frequency of
consequence (/yr)
100 10-1
10-1 10-2
10-2 10-3
10-3 10-4
10-4 10-5
10-5 10-6
10-6 10-7

Category
5

Intermediate range
Acceptable

2.2 FUZZY LOGIC FL AND FUZZY SET THEORY FS: The fuzzy logic provides an inference
structure that enables appropriate human reasoning capabilities.
2.2.1 Fuzzy Sets FS: The utility of fuzzy sets lies in their ability to model uncertain or ambiguous
data, FS is important to observe that there is an intimate connection between Fuzziness and
Complexity. Fuzzy sets provide means to model the uncertainty associated with vagueness,
imprecision, and lack of information regarding a problem or a plant, etc (Dubois, 1980, Zadeh,
1978).The uncertainty is found to arise from ignorance, from chance and randomness, due to lack of
knowledge, from vagueness. (Canos, 2008; R. Nait-Said, 2008, 2009; Bouchon et al, 1995;
RadimBris, 2013).
2.2.2 FUZZY NUMBERS: The membership function!" (x) has the following characteristics
(Dubois & Prade 1978).The membership function of the number #$ can be expressed as follows.
!% & , (  &  )
)&*
!" (x) = 1,
+!% & , *  &  ,

(5)

-!% &=

(6)

0,otherwise

-!+% & 

./0
1/0
2/.
2/3

(7)
!" (x)

!" (x)
1

1
-!% &
0

-!% &

-!+% &

-!+% &

a b =c

Figure.3: Trapezoidal and triangular fuzzy numbers

International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976 6480(Print),
ISSN 0976 6499(Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 01-11 IAEME

2.2.3 Fuzzy inference system FIS

Sugeno method is most commonly used fuzzy inference method (sugeno, 1985). A typical
rule in sugeno fuzzy model has the form, if input 1=x and input 2 =y, then output
z= ax+by+c(8)
The final output of the system is weighted average of all the rule output which is given as:
8
69: 56 76

Final output =

8
69: 56

(9)
Input MF

Input 1
F1(x)

x
Input 2

AND

RuleWeight
(firingstrength)

y
F2(x)

Output MF

Input MF

Output
level

Z=ax+by+c

Figure.4: Sugeno rule operates diagram

A FIS with five functional block described in Figure.5.

Knowledge base
Database

Rule base

OUTPUT

INPUT
Crisp

Defuzzification interface

Fuzzification interface

Fuzzy

Decision-making unit

Crisp

Fuzzy
(

Figure.5: Fuzzy inference system

3. CASE STUDY
The storage tank is designed to hold a flammable liquid under slight nitrogen positive
pressure under controls pressure (PICA-I). (CCPS, 2000). To demonstrate the proposed approaches,
this was earlier reported by CCPS (2000).

International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976 6480(Print),
ISSN 0976 6499(Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 01-11 IAEME

Equipment and valves

FV = Flow control Valve
T = Tank, P = pump
PV =Pressure control Valve
RV = Relief Valve,
1 = 1 inch size

Instruments
P = Pressure, T = Temperature
L = Level, F = Flow,
I = Indicator, C = Controller
A = Alarm; H = High, L = Low

To flare

To atmosphere
Nitrogene

PV-2
RV-1

PV-1
PICA-1

V-8

H
V-7

From tank
trucks

FlammableLiquid
Storage Tank
T=1

TIA-1

H
FICA
-1

LIA-1

V-1

To process
V-4
V-3
1

PI-1

P=1

FV-1

Figure.6: Flammables liquid storage tank

Table.3: LPG tank release using fuzzy inference methods (Gate.1)
Calculate probability using Boolean algebras method
I Tank rupture due A
to reaction
f
N
D

M1=1.10-8

Tank overfill and

Failure BPCS

release

and

via RV-1

human action

M2=1.10-5

PFD=1.10-1

T
H
E
N

LPG tank
release

T=1.10-6

Calculate probability using fuzzy inference method

1

M1=1.10-8

I
M1=5.03*10-9
F

M1=1.5*10-8

A M2=1.10-5
N
-6
D M2=5.09*10

A PFD=1.10-1
N
D PFD=0.0509

M2=1.5*10-5

PFD=0.149

T T=1.6*10-6
H
-6
E T=1.55*10
N
T=1.65*10-6

International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976 6480(Print),
ISSN 0976 6499(Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 01-11 IAEME

a. Rules inferences process of

LPG tank b. Three dimensional diagram, LPG tank
release, three inputs with one output
release, Tank rupture due to reaction and
Tank overfill and release via RV-1

c. Two dimensional diagram,

LPG tank d. Two dimensional diagram,
LPG tank
release with Tank rupture due to reaction
release with
failure BPCS and human
action
Figure.7: Simulation of inputs and outputs of fuzzy inference using sugeno
Table.4: Frequency of consequences for large LPG leakage using fuzzy inference methods
Calculate frequency of outcome using classical method
IF
AND
AND
large LPG leakage
BPCS
Safety Instrumented
System SIS
P=1.6*10-6
PFD=1.10-1
PFD=1.10-1

THEN
BLEVE
P=1.6*10-8

Calculate frequency of outcome using fuzzy inference method

0.00016

0.1

0.1

2.42*10-8

a. Rules inferencess process

b.Three dimensional diagram of c. Two dimensional diagram
for BLEVE, three inputs with BLEVE by large LPG leakage
shows relationship between
one output
and BPCS
BLEVE and SIS
Figure.8: Simulation of inputs and outputs of fuzzy inference using sugeno approach

International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976 6480(Print),
ISSN 0976 6499(Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 01-11 IAEME
Wrong
material
in tank
truck,
B1=1.10

Tank
rupture
due to
reactio
n
M1=1.
81*10-8

-3

An
d
Tank truck
not sampled
before
unloading,
2
B2=1.10-

Reagent reacts
with unloaded
material,
B3=1.10-1

Insuffici
ent
volume
in tank
to
unload
truck,
B5=1.10

Pressure
rise
exceeds
capacity
of PV-I,
B4=1.10-1

-2

Local
Thermal
hazard

Or

-2

Failure
of or
ignoring
LIA-I,
B6=1.10

BLEVE

An
d

2.42x10-8

PFD

Tank
overfil
ls and
release
via
RV-1,
M2=1.
62*10 -

VCE

LPG
tank
releas
e
T=1.6
*10-6

29.3x10-8

1.88x10-8

-8
Flash fire 0.405x10
and

1- PFD

Flash fire

4.55x10-8

Safe
dispersal

35.3x10-8

VCE

3.92x10-8

3
T=2.1

Flash fire
and

4.57x10-8

Flash fire

49.4x108

Safe
dispersal

432x10-8

Figure.9: Bow-tie analysis with results of fuzzy sets (sugeno approach) to calculate probability
of the top event and consequences LPG tank release
Table.5: Alpha-cut at left for scenario (*10-8/yr)
cut

Seq1

Seq2

Seq3

Seq4

Seq5

Seq6

Seq7

Seq8

Seq9

Seq10

2.228

27.57

1.531

0.3662

4.203

33.14

3.61

4.226

46.21

410.6

0.1

2.2472 27.743 1.5659 0.37008 4.2377 33.356 3.641 4.2604 46.529 412.74

0.2

2.2664 27.916 1.6008 0.37396 4.2724 33.572 3.672 4.2948 46.848 414.88

0.3

2.2856 28.089 1.6357 0.37784 4.3071 33.788 3.703 4.3292 47.167 417.02

0.4

2.3048 28.262 1.6706 0.38172 4.3418 34.004 3.734 4.3636 47.486 419.16

0.5

2.324

0.6

2.3432 28.608 1.7404 0.38948 4.4112 34.436 3.796 4.4324 48.124 423.44

0.7

2.3624 28.781 1.7753 0.39336 4.4459 34.652 3.827 4.4668 48.443 425.58

0.8

2.3816 28.954 1.8102 0.39724 4.4806 34.868 3.858 4.5012 48.762 427.72

0.9

2.4008 29.127 1.8451 0.40112 4.5153 35.084 3.889 4.5356 49.081 429.86

2.42

28.435 1.7055

29.3

1.88

0.3856

0.405

4.3765

4.55

34.22

35.3

3.765

3.92

4.398

4.57

47.805

49.4

421.3

432

International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976 6480(Print),
ISSN 0976 6499(Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 01-11 IAEME

Membership degree

Sequence 1
1.2
1
0.8
0.6

classical
fuzzy

0.4
0.2
0
0

0.5

1.5

2.5

Frequency (*10-8/yr)

Figure.10: Fuzzy and classical frequency sequence 1

4. DISCUSSION
The model proposed in this study is to calculate the frequencies and consequences of
initiating event. LOPA and Bow-tie analysis using fuzzy sets is a model which allows us to precisely
the values of IE, consequences and risk. To get best results Bow-tie analysis devised to two method
Fault tree analysis and Event tree analysis, where each method used alone with fuzzy, this for
facilitating the task of calculating the value of risk.
The results have shown on form of figures and tables, the figures also divided to four kinds;
rules inferences process where we can demonstrate it by the equation (9) and the figure.2, three
dimensional diagram, two dimensional diagram where the equation.10 can demonstrate the results
for both two and three dimensional, and comparison between two methods fuzzy and classical
(logical and arithmetic computation) using the equations (6), (7) and (8).The tables illustrate the
advantages of fuzzy where can give different results for IE and consequences, and fuzzy inference
best tool to help for understand the variation of outputs by inputs.
According to value of tolerable risk in our system which must be 10-7, the values got by fuzzy
approach are more precise than logical regarding that pessimist values are prefers by the analysts.
Thus fuzzy sets is more appropriate and more powerful to assess the risk in engineering system.
Combination between five methods HAZOP, FTA, ETA, Bow-tie and LOPA using fuzzy are the
greatest model to precise the value of risk and the best model for reliability quantitative risk
assessment, which they allow to understand the system completely, minimize the risk from side and
maximize the value of safety from the other side.
Optimization of IPL in systems based on LOPA after Bow-tie analysis allow to maximize the
value of safety in engineering system and minimize the value of risk
5. CONCLUSION
In this study, we proposed a new modelto deal with problem of uncertainty and imprecise of
risk assessment. Qualitative, semi quantitative, and quantitative are three approaches based on five
methods HAZOP, Bow-tie analysis based on FTA ETA, and LOPA using Fuzzy sets as a new model
for risk assessment. The results which have gotten in this study are more powerful while authorizing
us to say the proposed model is the best solution for reliability quantitative risk assessment and
improve safety integrity level SIL. The frequency of consequences calculated by the frequency of IE
and PFD of IPL using fuzzy-sugeno is more powerful than logical method, and consider as
complementary. The assessment of IPL for engineering system is the best continuity for the proposed
model.
9

International Journal of Advanced Research in Engineering and Technology (IJARET), ISSN 0976 6480(Print),
ISSN 0976 6499(Online) Volume 5, Issue 10, October (2014), pp. 01-11 IAEME

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