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November 14, 2014

Exclusive ORYZA E-Newsletter

DAILYCompiled
EXCLUSIVE
ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
& Edited by Riceplus Magazine

November 14, 2014

Vol 4 Issue XI

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DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER

News Headlines
Bangladesh Targets to Produce 18.9 Million
Tons of Rice from 2014-15 Boro Crop
FAO Forecasts Thailand 2014 Rice Exports at
9.6 Million Tons, Up 45% from Last Year
Global Rice Quotes
FAO Estimates Egypt 2014 Paddy Rice
Production at 6 Million Tons, Down 1.6% from
Last Year
Thailand Plans to Clinch New G2G Rice Export
Contract with China
Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough Rice
Futures Seen Higher Overnight but Unchanged
as of Late as Market Attempts to Capture
Support from Surging Grains
India Government Procures 9.2 Million Tons of
Rice as of November 10, 2014 in KMS 2014-15
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice
Futures Fail to Find Follow-through Buying
Interest and Slip below $12.000 per cwt Once
Again
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Quiet Market
with Price Ideas at Odds
Thai Rice Pledging Scheme Losses Pegged at
$15.8 Billion
Philippines Rice Stocks Stand at 1.81 Million
Tons as of October 1, 2014; Up 21% m/m and
Up 2% y/y
Vietnam Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their
Quotes Today; Other Asia Rice Quotes
Unchanged
U.S. Extends Support to India's Food Subsidies

News Detail

Bangladesh Targets to Produce 18.9 Million

Tons of Rice from 2014-15 Boro Crop
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Nov 13, 2014

The Bangladesh government is targeting to produce around

18.9 million tons of milled rice from 2014-15 Boro crop
(January - May), under the fixed Boro Cultivation program,
according to official sources.The output from the 2014
Boro crop, which contributes to about 55% of Bangladesh's
total rice production, stood at around 19.1 million tons, up
about 2% from around 18.778 million tons produced in
2013, according to the Department of Agriculture Extension
(DAE) data.
2015 Boro crop is expected to be planted in around 478,000 hectares. The government is
targeting to produce about 3.162 million tons of hybrid rice from around 670,000 hectares; about
15.712 million tons of rice from high yielding varieties planted in around 4.06 million hectares;
and about 10,300 tons of rice from local rice varieties planted in around 5,000 hectares.
The DAE and concerned organizations such as Bangladesh Agriculture Development
Corporation, Bangladesh Rice Research Institute, have been instructed to support adequate
technical support to farmers under the fixed Boro Cultivation program."Comprehensive and
well-coordinated measures are being taken to deliver latest technologies to farmers to ensure
higher output from the upcoming Boro Crop with low costs and less resources, said a
Horticulture Specialist at the DAE. A Deputy Director at the DAE added that focus is mainly
laid on helping farmers in using less amount of ground water and consequently electricity.
Bangladesh produced around 34.449 million tons of rice, basis milled, in FY 2013-14 (July June), up about 2.7% from around 33.833 million tons produced in FY 2012-13, according to
DAE data. Bangladesh rice crop production cycle is divided into Aus (February - July), Aman
(April - December) and Boro (January - May). The government is targets around 12.996 million
tons of rice from the Aman crop, whose harvest is going on.USDA estimates Bangladesh to
produce around 34.6 million tons of rice in MY 2014-15 (May - April), up about 1% from an
estimated 34.39 million tons in MY 2013-14. It estimates Bangladesh to import around 500,000
tons of rice in 2015, down about 26% from an estimated 678,000 tons in 2014.

Tags: Bangladesh rice production, Boro, Aus, Aman

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FAO Forecasts Thailand 2014 Rice Exports

at 9.6 Million Tons, Up 45% from Last Year
Nov 13, 2014

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has forecasted Thailand's 2014 rice exports
at around 9.6 million tons, up about 45% from last year's low level of around 6.6 million tons.
The military government, which took over in May 2014, temporarily suspended rice sales
between May and July to carry out nationwide stock inspections. However, export sales as part
of Government-to-Government (G2G) contracts continued.
The FAO estimates Thailand's 2014 aggregate paddy rice production at around 37.5 million tons
(around 24.75 million tons, basis milled), down about 2% from around 38.2 million tons (around
25.2 million tons, basis milled) produced in 2013 due to slight contraction in area planted. The
FAO estimates output from the main season crop (April - January) at around 27.5 million tons
(around 18.15 million tons, basis milled), down about 2% from last year due to a decline in the
paddy planted area. Paddy planted area during the main season crop is forecasted to decline to
around 10.3 million hectares, slightly below last year's level. The UN agency is estimating
normal output from the 2014-15 secondary crop (January - June).
Planting for the 2014 main season rice crop (April - January) began in early May in the north and
is expected to continue until late August in the main producing southern areas. Lesser than
normal rainfall between May and June in the northern and central producing areas slowed down
planting activities. But improved rainfall from early July is likely to benefit transplanting
activities and the early planted crops.
Domestic prices, which declined between March and May 2014 with the 2013/14 secondary
season harvest and continuous releases from public stocks, began increasing in June and July due
to the suspension of rice sales from Government warehouses. However, average domestic prices
of Thai 25% white rice declined slightly to around $360 per ton in September 2014 from around
$365 in August due to expected high yields from the upcoming harvest in November. They were
relatively stable in October due to lower export activity and are expected to decline further in
November with the beginning of the main crop harvest.
Tags: Rice, rice news, FAO, forecast, Thailand, asia rice exports

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Global Rice Quotes

November 14th, 2014
Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade
420-430
Vietnam 5% broken 415-425

India 5% broken
410-420

Pakistan 5% broken 395-405

Cambodia 5% broken 455-465

U.S. 4% broken
540-550

Uruguay 5% broken 595-605

Argentina 5% broken 595-605

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken NQ

Vietnam 25% broken 385-395

Pakistan 25% broken 350-360

Cambodia 25% broken

NQ

India 25% broken

370-380

U.S. 15% broken

510-520

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd
405-415
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 425-435
India parboiled 5% broken stxd
390-400
U.S. parboiled 4% broken
580-590

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 585-595

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken

NQ

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92%
850-860
Vietnam Jasmine
555-565

India basmati 2% broken

NQ

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ

Cambodia Phka Malis

825-835
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 330-340

Vietnam 100% broken

330-340
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 320-330
Cambodia A1 Super NQ

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India 100% Broken stxd

Egypt medium grain brokens
U.S. pet food 445-455
Brazil half grain
NQ

310-320
NQ

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

FAO Estimates Egypt 2014 Paddy Rice

Production at 6 Million Tons, Down 1.6%
from Last Year
Nov 13, 2014

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has estimated 2014 Egypt paddy rice
production at around 6 million tons (around 4.14 million tons, basis milled), down about 1.6%
from around 6.1 million tons (around 4.2 million tons, basis milled) last year. It estimates the
total cereal harvest, including rice, to slightly increase to around 21.62 million tons from around
21.42 million tons last year.
Harvesting for the 2014 rice crop is nearing completion and conditions for crop development are
favorable according to the satellite reports, says FAO.The government is taking measures to
increase water and land productivity as well as use drought-tolerant and high-yielding varieties.
It is working towards streamlining post-harvest handling, transportation and storage facilities to
increase production. However, high prices of fertilizer and fuel (due to subsidy reforms in July
2014) are expected to cause hardships to farmers. Prices of diesel increased by 63% percent,
gasoline by 40 - 78% (depending on the percentage of octane) and electricity by 28% since July
2014.
Last month, the government had approved plans to allow rice exports in MY 2014-15 with
certain conditions. It requires them to sell one ton of medium-grain rice at about 2,000 Egyptian
pounds (around $279) for every ton of rice they export. It also requires the exporting companies
to pay an export tariff of around $280 per ton of rice exported.
Tags: FAO, Rice, rice news, Production, Paddy, egypt

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November 14, 2014

DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER

Thailand Plans to Clinch New G2G Rice

Export Contract with China
Nov 13, 2014

The Thai Commerce Ministry is planning to strike a

new government-to-government (G2G) contract with
China to export around 2 million tons of rice next
year, according to local sources.The Ministry will
shortly discuss the new G2G deal with China's stateowned China National Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs
Corporation (COFCO), the Thai Commerce Minister
was quoted as saying.
Thailand is also planning to speed up the delivery process under the existing one-million tons
G2G contract with China. Thailand so far shipped 300,000 tons to China under the existing
contract and is scheduled to export remaining 700,000 tons by July 2015.
Local sources say COFCO officials are likely to visit Thailand this week and the Thai Commerce
Ministry will demonstrate the production processes of Thai white rice as well as jasmine rice to
instil a confidence in them. The Commerce Ministry may persuade COFCO officials to import
jasmine rice for the remaining 700,000 tons under the existing contract given increasing Chinese
preference for Thai jasmine rice, according to local sources.
Later this year, the Thai Commerce Ministry is also planning to send a team to China to promote
Thai rice among the Chinese consumers. They are also expected to address the issue of lower
quality rice mixed with Thai white rice and prove that the rice exported by Thailand is not
contaminated.Thailand exported around 277,547 tons of rice to China in 2013, up about 94%
from around 143,082 tons exported in 2012, according to data from Thai Rice Exporters
Association (TREA).
Tags: Thai rice exports, Thai rice exports to China, TREA, Thai Commerce Ministry

Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Seen Higher Overnight but
Unchanged as of Late as Market Attempts to
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Capture Support from Surging Grains

Nov 13, 2014

Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery are currently noted unchanged at $12.015 per cwt
(about $265 per ton) during early morning floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen
trading sharply higher: soybeans are currently seen about 1.6% higher, wheat is listed about
1.6% higher and corn is noted about 2.1% higher.
U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, with Wal-Mart Stores helping lifting the Dow to another record, as
investors embraced earnings from the world's largest retailer and data showing jobless claims
holding at a 14-year low. Of the 453 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly earnings,
74.8% have topped expectations, according to numbers compiled by Thomson Reuters.
The Labor Department on Thursday reported initial claims for state unemployment benefits
climbed 12,000 to 290,000 last week, above the 280,000 forecast but beneath 300,000 for a ninth
consecutive week. Advancing to its loftiest level, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 55.71
points, or 0.3%, to 17,667.91. The S&P 500 gained 5.11 points, or 0.3%, to 2,043.36. The
Nasdaq climbed 18.51 points, or 0.4%, to 4,693.64. Gold is currently trading about 0.2% higher,
crude oil is seen trading about 1.8% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.1%
lower at 9:00am Chicago time.
Tags: chicago rough rice futures, U.S. rice market, U.S. rice prices

India Government Procures 9.2 Million Tons

of Rice as of November 10, 2014 in KMS
2014-15
Nov 13, 2014

The Food Corporation of India (FCI), the nodal agency for food grain procurement and
distribution has procured around 9.2 million tons of rice as of November 10, 2014 in KMS 201415 (October 2014 - September 2015), according to data by the Ministry of Consumer Affairs,
Food & Public Distribution.
Punjab (7.24 million tons) and Haryana (18.76 million tons) are the top contributors to the

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central pool so far in KMS 2014-15.

The Indian government is targeting to procure 30.05 million tons of rice during the KMS 201415. Last year, the Indian government procured 31.86 million tons of rice against the targeted
34.29 million tons due to sluggish arrivals from Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, where paddy
production was badly affected by cyclones and excess rainfall.
Tags: India, Rice, rice news, government

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Fail to Find Follow-through
Buying Interest and Slip below $12.000 per
cwt Once Again
Nov 13, 2014

Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery settled 7.5 cents per cwt (about $2 per ton) lower at
$11.940 per cwt (about $263 per ton). Rough rice futures were dragged back below the $12.000
per cwt (about $265 per ton) level as selling pressure mounted in afternoon trading today. The
market was unable to maintain highs put in place overnight and have once again charted a
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negative pattern as the market closed near the session low.

Todays market activity on combination with the current multi-session downward trend forecast
for a continuation lower ultimately towards the recent spike low of 11.375 per cwt (about $251
per ton). The other grains finished the day higher; Soybeans closed about 0.6% higher at
$10.5350 per bushel; wheat finished about 2% higher at $5.5475 per bushel, and corn finished
the day about 2.3% higher at $3.8625 per bushel.U.S. stocks erased Thursday gains that had
lifted the S&P 500 and Dow to records, with energy companies slammed as the price of oil fell,
countering upbeat earnings from the world's largest retailer and data showing jobless claims
holding at a 14-year low.
Of the 460 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly earnings, 74.6% have topped
expectations, according to numbers compiled by Thomson Reuters. The Labor Department on
Thursday reported initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed 12,000 to 290,000 last
week, above the 280,000 forecast but beneath 300,000 for a ninth consecutive week. Separate
figures from the Labor Department had hiring at its highest level in more than six years. Erasing
a 93-point gain that had it at its loftiest level, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lately fell 8.06
points to 17,604.14.
The S&P 500 dropped 5.68 points, or 0.3%, to 2,032.57, with energy falling the most among its
10 major sectors. The Nasdaq shed 4.68 points, or 0.1%, to 4,670.49. Gold is trading about 0.5%
higher, crude oil is seen trading about 2.3% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.1%
lower at about 1:00pm Chicago time.Wednesday, there were 691 contracts traded, up from 503
contracts traded on Tuesday. Open interest the number of contracts outstanding on
Wednesday increased by 60 contracts to 9,886.
Tags: chicago rough rice futures, U.S. rice market, U.S. rice prices

Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap - Quiet

Market with Price Ideas at Odds
Nov 13, 2014

The U.S. cash market was quiet today as buyer and seller prices ideas remain roughly $0.25$0.75/cwt (about $6-$17 per ton) apart.Analysts insist that at the current prices levels farmers are
seeing most would rather put their rice in their bins and wait for prices to improve while buyers
have no interest in paying up in this market as it has paid to be hand to mouth.In the meantime,
the USDA will release their export sales and shipments report tomorrow instead of today due the
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Veterans day holiday on Tuesday.

Tags: U.S. rice prices, U.S. rice market

Thai Rice Pledging Scheme Losses Pegged at

$15.8 Billion
Nov 13, 2014

The Thai Finance Ministry has declared today that losses from the rice pledging scheme
introduced by the previous government have reached about 518 billion baht (around $15.8
billion), according to Reuters.There are number of contentions regarding losses from the scheme.
Last week, the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) said that the total losses from
the scheme would reach around one trillion baht (around $30.5 billion) considering the losses of
about 660 billion baht (around $20 billion) already accounted for as well as the valuation of
spoilt/degrading stocks.
Prior to that, based on the stock inspection report, the Thai Prime Minister noted that the country
currently has 18 million tons of rice and of that only 10% are of standard quality, about 70%
were below-standard and about 20% were unfit for human consumption.The government's rice
stocks are currently estimated at around 19.2 million tons, the permanent secretary for the
Ministry of Finance was quoted as saying. The government is continuing to sell rice from its
warehouses through auctions and government-to-government (G2G) contracts. The Thai
government sold around 140,000 tons of rice in the previous two auctions raising around 1.7
billion baht (around $52.3 million).
Tags: Rice, rice news, Thailand, pledging, scheme

Philippines Rice Stocks Stand at 1.81 Million

Tons as of October 1, 2014; Up 21% m/m and
Up 2% y/y
Nov 13, 2014

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Total rice stocks in the Philippines as of October 1, 2014 reached around 1.81 million tons, up
about 21% from around 1.49 million tons recorded in September 2014, and up about 2% from
around 1.77 million tons recorded during the same period last year, according to the Bureau of
Agricultural Statistics (BAS).
According to the BAS, household stocks (which account for about 46.2% of total rice stocks in
the country) have reached around 830,000 tons as of October 1, 2014, down about 9% from yearago levels of around 910,000 tons. Commercial warehouse rice stocks (which account for about
28.9% of total stocks) have reached around 520,000 tons as of October 1, 2014, up about 8%
from their year-ago levels of around 480,000 tons. The rice stocks with the National Food
Authority (NFA) (which account for 24.9% of total stocks) stood at about 450,000 tons, up about
15% from around 390,000 tons recorded in October 2013.

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Month-on-month, household rice stocks are up about 40%, commercial warehouse rice stocks are
up about 19% and NFA rice stocks - in which about 96% are imported rice - are down about 1%,
according to the BAS.The BAS says that the Philippines' rice stocks as of October 1, 2014 are
enough to last for 53 days (household stocks are enough for 25 days, commercial warehouses
stocks are enough for 15 days and stocks with NFA are enough for 13 days).The NFA had
imported about 1.8 million tons of rice since the beginning of 2014 (including 1.5 million tons of
this year's imports and 300,000 tons of last year's imports) to replenish rice stocks and control
price hikes.
Tags: Philippines rice stocks, Philippines rice imports, NFA stocks, Household stocks, Commercial warehouse stocks

Vietnam Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their

Quotes Today; Other Asia Rice Quotes
Unchanged
Nov 13, 2014

Vietnam rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $10 per ton
to around $420 - $430 per ton today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged
today.
5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton, about $15 per ton discount to Vietnam
5% rice shown at around $420 - $430 per ton, down about $10 per ton from yesterday. India 5%
rice is quoted ataround $410 - $420 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice
quoted at around $395 - $405 per ton.
25% Broken
Rice
Thailand 25% rice was last quoted at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $40 per ton discount to
Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $390 - $400 per ton.
India 25% rice is quoted at around $370 - $380, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice
quoted ataround $350 - $360 per ton.
Parboiled Rice
Thailand parboiled rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted
at around $390 - $400 per ton, about $35 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice quoted
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at around $425 - $435 per ton.

100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted at around $330 - $340 per ton, on par with Vietnam
100% broken rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton.
India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $310 - $320 per ton, about $10 per ton discount to
Pakistan broken sortexed rice quoted at around $320 - $330 per ton.
Tags: Rice, rice news, quotes, Vietnam, asia quotes

U.S. Extends Support to India's Food

Subsidies
Nov 13, 2014

The U.S. and India have reached an agreement on India's rising food subsidies and this
development would allow India to support an important World Trade Organization agreement
aimed at trade facilitation, according to Wall Street Journal.India had out rightly rejected signing
the pact in the Bali conference last year unless the WTO agreed to revise its rice subsidy norms
giving it more room for public procurement of agricultural commodities, including rice, and
continuation of the Food Security Act. India is seeking WTO over enhancing limit for food
subsidies from the current 10% of the total production of any commodity as it needs huge
amounts of food stuffs to feed its more than one billion population.In September this year, a
government official told local sources that though Indias farm subsidies are well below the
WTO's 10% limit, India may cross the 10% limit within a few years and that would severely
impact its rice procurement for food security purposes. If India breaches this limit, India may
attract sanctions from other member countries.
"The U.S. has agreed to give India more freedom to subsidize and stockpile food to feed its
citizens and support its farmers, India's Commerce Minister was quoted as saying without giving
details of the U.S.- India agreement. She added that the proposal by India with the U.S. backing
would be released in December this year.The U.S. is keen on passing the trade facilitation
agreement, which aims at modernizing trade infrastructure and regulations across the globe.
Most of the WTO member countries agreed to pass the agreement, which was stalled due to
India's stance on food stockpiling and subsidies. The trade-facilitation agreement is expected to
reduce trade costs by about 10% in developing countries and about 14% in developed nations,
according to U.S. officials. It would also boost American businesses, they noted.The Minister
noted that the development would end the ambiguity regarding India's stance on food subsidies.
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