Professional Documents
Culture Documents
NATIONAL
ELECTRIFICATION
ADMINISTRATION
RATIONALE:
NEA Administrator Memorandum No. 2009-014 Re: CAPEX Plan
Preparation:
ECs to await the culmination of the Trainors Training Seminar Workshop
prior to the engagement with Capex Application Consultants to ensure
alignment with ERC format and attain the following objectives.
Harmonizing the identified infrastructures projects of each
respective EC as stated in its ICPM, DDP, Capex Applications, Rate
Filing and other related documents.
Facilitating a common, well understood, simple framework,
template and manual covering the entire CAPEX Application cycle.
Capacitating Core NEA/Regional Association /EC personnel on
CAPEX Application procedures and preparations with ERC.
Memorandum of Agreement dated August 05, 2009 on the crafted
and formulated Electric Cooperative Distribution Utility Planning
Manual a necessity to adopt a comprehensive and integrated
development plan for the preparation of the CAPEX Projects,
programs, structural and/or institutional planning and development
of the ECs consistent with PDC, Safety Standards set by PEC,
Resolution No. 18s ,2008 and Resolution No. 26s, 2009 ,Rules and
Regulations issued by ERC, the DDP and the ICPM and other
applicable and pertinent laws.
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GETTING STARTED:
ADJUSTMENT OF SECURITY SETTINGS
MS Excel 2007 Version
a. Go to Office Menu
b. Find Excel Option
c. Trust Center
d. Click Trust Center Setting
b
d
b
c
e
e. Macro Setting
Enable all Macros
Check trust access to VBA project
object model
f. Then click OK
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NATIONAL
ELECTRIFICATION
ADMINISTRATION
FORECASTING
The ability of the electric cooperative to accurately forecast future energy and
demand requirement of the distribution system is a critical component for effective
and correct identification of CAPEX projects. Inaccurate forecast may result to
wrong prescription of projects by the system managers or planners, either by
overbuilding or under-building capacity. In any case, this would result in significant
cost to the consumers.
FORECASTING APPROACHES AND METHODOLOGY
The most appropriate forecasting methodology for distribution utilities is Small
Area forecasting to capture both magnitude and spatial characteristics of the
load within the franchise or coverage area of the utility company. However, the
current state of database and analytical models of the Electric Cooperatives are
not sufficient yet to apply this approach or methodology. There are two
forecasting methodology that can be used by the ECs. These are the
Econometric Analysis and Trend Analysis
There are also two (2) approaches in forecasting the Peak Demand. The first
approach is to forecast the peak demand directly. The second approach is to
forecast energy first then compute the peak demand from an assumed load
factor. The Distribution Planner must assess which approach is best for the data
available
TESTING AND IMPROVING THE FORECASTING MODELS
The forecasting models formulated must be tested for validity. The R2 and
Adjusted R2 statistics are good measure of fit of the model to the historical data.
These statistics must be used to assess whether the addition of independent
variable are valid or not. For econometric models, the Adjusted R2 statistic should
be at least 80% while for trend models, it should be at least 99% for the model to
be valid. Predictors or independent variables must also be tested for their validity
using at least the p-value and t-statistic. For the variable to be valid, the p-value
should be lower than 0.1 while the t-statistic should be greater than 2 or less than
-2. For all the valid forecasting models formulated, the Mean Absolute
Percentage Error (MAPE) must be computed. The MAPE of the final forecasting
model should not exceed 5%.
In case, the forecasting models formulated failed either or both in terms of
validity and accuracy, the Distribution Planner must improve the model by using
additional data or through some variants of the model.
DEMAND AND CUSTOMER FORECASTS
The EC must forecast the following:
o
o
o
Annual peak demand and energy for each substation for 10 years;
Annual Sales or Customer Consumption per customer class for 10 years;
Annual Number of customers per customer class for 10 years;
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of
to
Electric
accurately
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Note: all white cell are input area, the highlighted cell is
calculated automatically
7. Click Forecasted Data input the forecasted energy in MWH, Peak
Demand in MW per Substation/Power Plant and Number of
Customer based on forecasting model.
8. Input Coop Use (MWH) and Target for Technical and Non-Technical
Loss Reduction based on your Simulation (input data on white cells)
then click Save and press Potential Large Load button.
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Assumption:
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11. Click Total Forecast to view and review the inputted data.
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and
then
4. Before you proceed , click Link Files for updating, to capture the
necessary data
5. Highlight the Filename Forecast Data workbook, click Update Values
button and the click close
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9. Reliability Project:
o
o
o
o
o
o
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16. From the General Plant Assets or Non-Network Assets the EC should
identify their logistics requirements under the Property and
Equipment to be included in the CAPEX.
17. Equipment:
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
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18. Click Compliance Plan there are 25 Grid Codes and 50 Distribution
Codes that will update the EC on their status of compliance. Some
PGC requires the EC to infuse Capital Expenditures.
19. Click Optimal CAPEX Plan to review the CAPEX Projects based on
EC-Distribution Utility Planning Manual as required by ERC.
20. Click Long Term Development Plan this button is linked to your
CAPEX Projects, including Physical Targets and Fund
21. Click Biennial Workplan this button is your final output subject for the
approval of EC and NEA.
o The EC Project costs (LTDP-Summary) are already linked to the
Work Plan (WP) but the EC should input Project Descriptions,
Quarterly Targets, Project Impacts and Funding Source.
o Under the Project Impact specify the expected end result of the
project/s
o The EC can insert rows as required. Then click Back
22. Click Contingency Plan and EC Buffer Stock in case of Emergency,
allocation for Material requirement is necessary to include in the
CAPEX
23. Click WESM Requirements as the need arises
24. This is a Free Working Sheet (Technical and Economic Analysis)
25. Click Executive Summary This is the EC Business Plan/ Feasibility Study
Outline
26. Click Save on this button, the EC must execute to save and wait for
the process to complete then Exit
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PEP
Energy Resource
Development Plan
(DOE)
Philippine
Development Plan
(DOE)
Distribution Development
Plan (DOE)
Transmission Development
Plan
(TransCo/Concessionaire)
NECDDP
(NEA)
MEDP
(DOE)
PIOUs DDP
(PIOUs)
ECs DDP
(ECs)
WAIVED
AREAS
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CHAPTER II
OBJECTIVES
The DOEs Electric Power Industry Management Bureau (EPIMB), as part of its
mandate shall review the list of distribution development projects with the
view to encourage private sector participation under a competitive
environment. EPIMB shall also provide indicative timetables to ensure
sufficient lead times in the construction of power facilities.
The DOE's review of the DDPs shall take into account consistency with the
general and specific policies for the energy sector, the assumptions used in
formulation of such plans, and the consistency of such plans with national
and regional resource assessments, development programs, and project
timetables of various energy upstream activities.
The EPIMB shall also use the data described in the DDP for the following
purposes;
(1) validate electricity demand forecasts at the macro level in the next ten
(10) years; and
(2) simulate power supply plan based on the demand forecasts and come
up with indicative plant line-up
After evaluating the results of the simulations, the DOE, if necessary, requests
further clarification and/or amendments from concerned DUs. The EPIMB shall
recommend the DOEs approval and adoption of the DDPs and their
integration with the PDP/PEP no later than June 30 of each year.
The integrated PDP/PEP shall be submitted to the Congress on or before
September 15th every year.
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NATIONAL
ELECTRIFICATION
ADMINISTRATION
CHAPTER III
DEFINITION OF TERMS
COMMITTED RESOURCES: resources that have secured all necessary permits
and already have financial closure, but are not yet operating but are
expected to be successfully completed.
CONTRACTED CAPACITY: refers to the demand that the supplier of electric
services agrees to have available for delivery at all times for one year or a
specific period of time.
CONTRACTED ENERGY: refers to the amount of energy to be delivered by the
suppliers to the electric utility for one year or a specific period of time.
CONTRACTUAL EXPORTS: The amount of energy that the reporting DU is
obligated to deliver to another DU or bulk end user outside the DU planning
area under firm contract. Contractual firm exports shall represent loads
included in the energy consumption forecast. Examples of this category of
energy requirements include utility sales to another entity for resale or sales by
the DU to an economic zone (e.g., PEZA zone) for resale to its end-users.
CIRCUIT KILOMETER: this shall be determined by measuring the length, in terms
of kilometers, of distribution feeders.
DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT (DSM) refers to the planning, implementation,
and evaluation by the DUs of their activities designed to influence customer
use of electricity that produce desired changes in the timing and/or level of
electricity demand. DSM includes only activities that involve deliberate
intervention by electric utilities to alter demand and/or energy consumption.
DEPENDABLE CAPACITY: refers to the maximum capacity a power plant can
sustain over a period modified for seasonal limitations less the capacity
required for station service and auxiliaries.
DIRECT SALES TO CUSTOMER: refers to electricity sales to customer sectors
grouped according to the following classification categories as defined
below:
Residential: private households, including single and multiple family
dwellings.
Commercial: establishments engaged in commercial activities other
than industry, including: offices, restaurants, retail stores, hotels and motels,
elementary and secondary schools, colleges and trade schools, health
facilities, food stores, warehouses, etc.
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2. Before you proceed , click Update Link to capture the necessary data
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A. DDP-General Provisions
The accomplishment of DOE-EPIMB Form-03-001 shall be guided by the
following:
1. Name of Utility in Full: Name of DU as it appears in ERC/NEA/Congress
Franchise/ Authority/License No./R.A.#
2. ERC/NEA Authority/License No./R.A.#: The License or Authority Number of
the DU issued by ERC / NEA or Congress
3. Brief Description of Service/Franchise Area: Provide a brief description of
the service/franchise area of the DU. The description should cover at a
minimum the area size being served as well as the provinces and/or
municipalities covered.
4. Grid: Name of the National Transmission Corporation (TransCo) or its
Concessionaire (National Grid Corporation of the Philippines) substation (if
bus-in) and/or transmission line (if cut-in) to which the reporting distribution
utility is connected.
5a.Description of the Methodology Used in Load Forecasting and Supply
Expansion Plan:
Demand Forecast Methodology
This narrative should document the electricity demand forecasting methods
and models used by the reporting DU in preparation of its DDP. Accordingly,
this description should include, but not be limited to:
a)
b)
c)
d)
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Utilitys System Losses: This entry represents the DUs overall system
loss. This could be defined as Net System Input less billed Customer
Sales or losses due to Technical and Non-technical losses.
TOTAL ELECTRICITY PURCHASED/GENERATED: This refers to the total energy
requirement of the utility secured or sourced from utility owned generators
and/or contracted supply.
PEAK DEMAND REQUIREMENT
The segregation of peak demand for the on-grid and off-grid is intended to
provide a better perspective on the peak demand requirement of DUs:
The following shall guide the DU in filling-in item 11a:
(1) On-grid DUs with no Off-grid system shall fill-in entries for On-grid
only;
(2) Off-grid DUs shall fill-in entries for Off-grid only; and
(3) On-grid DUs with Off-grid system shall both fill-in entries for both Ongrid and Off-grid.
11a. Peak Demand: The Peak Demand of the DU is defined as the
aggregate of all coincident peak demand contributing to direct sales by
customers across all sectors.
Direct Sales to Customers (Demand): The peak demand entered under
each customer class, Residential, Commercial, Industrial and Other
Customers, must be the demand occurring at the time of the DUs
coincident peak.
Utilitys Own Use: This entry represents the contribution to the coincident
peak caused by the DUs electricity demand for its own use (offices,
housing and other non-distribution related facilities).
Utilitys Station Use: This entry represents the contribution to the
coincident peak caused by the DUs consumption in its distribution
related facilities.
Utilitys System Losses: This entry represents the contribution to the
coincident peak caused by the DUs overall system losses.
Peak Demand Requirement: refers to the coincident peak demand
experienced by the distribution utility, that is, the net of the sum of all
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submission the year or combination of years used as the basis for dry
season being referred to.
Net Production (MWH) This refers to the planned or actual annual net
energy output of the generating plant.
13b. Supply From NPC: This refers to the annual contracted demand (kW)
and contracted energy (MWh) from NPC to the reporting DU.
13c. Supply From NPCs Transition Supply Contract (TSC): This refers to the
annual contracted demand (kW) and contracted energy (MWh) from NPC
under the TSC of the reporting DU.
13d. Utility Contract Supply From Others: This refers to the annual contracted
demand (kW)/energy (MWh) from non-NPC generating facilities and those
transacted in the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market. Renewable Energybased power facilities shall be indicated in this section.
13e. Local Private Supply: The purpose of this section is to identify and
quantify the amount of customer-owned or other self-generating capacity,
including Renewable Energy -based power facilities ,installed and utilized
within the DUs franchise area.
Installed Capacity in this section should reflect the total kW of all embedded
generators. Capacity Used for Own Use should reflect that portion of
Installed Capacity that is normally used to supply customer load at the time
of the DUs system peak.
Example: If a customer has two units of 500 kW generators and
operates one unit at maximum capacity to provide electric
supply while maintaining the other as back up, the Installed
Capacity is 1,000 kW and the Capacity for Own Use is 500 kW.
If a customer has a 500 kW generator but using it only as
standby, the Installed Capacity is 500 kW and the Capacity for
Own Use is zero.
Energy for Own Use is the total annual energy requirements in MWh of the
customer to be sourced from self-generating facility.
Energy Supply (surplus of embedded generator) is the maximum energy the
self-generating facility can supply to the DU annually.
13f. Total Supply: Total Capacity is the sum of the following:
1. Aggregate of all Dependable Capacity (kW) for each utility-owned
power generating facility listed in Section 13a.
2. Contract Demand (kW) listed in Section 13b and 13c (Supply from
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This entry (items 14a to 14i) is similar to Item 13 but shall only indicate, among
others, quantities from yet to be entered supply contracts from committed
generating facilities, contracts that still need regulatory approval, from
expected generation output of DU owned generation facility under
construction, and energy to be transacted in the Wholesale Electricity Spot
Market.
Renewable Energy-based power facilities shall be indicated in this section.
The impact of these resources on overall supply adequacy is great enough
that the DOE considers these resources when determining the need for other
resource development. At the start of a PDP process, a pool of pending
resources will be identified. The pool of pending resources may include but
not limited to the following: private power resource development and
Renewable energy-based resources.
E. DDP-DDP
The purpose of this section is to indicate the total amount of existing and to
be installed sub-transmission, distribution, and substation facilities.
15a and 15c. Distribution / Sub-transmission Circuit-Kilometers (Acquisition
and Expansion): Provide the cumulative historical data of distribution
feeders, in circuit kilometers, and the yearly forecasted data of distribution
and/or sub-transmission lines for each of the voltage levels listed. The circuitkilometers are determined by measuring the total length of distribution/subtransmission line in kilometers for each voltage levels listed and for each
system.
This should also include the required connection facilities for Renewable
Energy-based power facilities as required in Section 11 of RA 9513.
15b and 15d. Distribution/ Sub-transmission Line (Replacement and
Rehabilitation): Provide the cumulative historical and yearly forecasted data
of the rehabilitation result and plan for the distribution and sub-transmission
line in circuit kilometers in accordance with each of the voltage levels listed.
16a. Substation Capacity (Additional): For each size of substation transformer
as listed, provide the cumulative historical data (the total number of
transformers and cumulative MVA capacity) to be retained and the
forecasted data should be on a yearly basis.
16b. Substation Capacity (Retirement): For each size of substation transformer
as listed, provide the historical and forecasted data on a yearly basis the
retirement of substation.
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Click Save, On this button the EC must execute to save and wait for
the process to complete then press Exit.
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and
then
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5. Click Income Statement Button, Input Area (white cells) - Input the latest
actual data of the EC 2012 Income Statement (audited, if any) , in Php
000
6. Click Balance Sheet Button, Input Area (white cells) - Input the latest
actual data of the EC 2012 Income Statement (audited, if any)
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7.
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