Maintain Roads When the Sun Shines:

Impacts of Road Access on Subjective

Well-being in Timor-Leste
Aekapol Chongvilaivan, PARD
Kiyoshi Taniguchi, PSOD
Rommel Rabanal, PARD
8 October 2014

Motivation from ADB operations

Impact
?
Outcome
Output

Motivation from the Field

Accessing Dili during rainy season was really difficult.
Due to bad roads caused by landslides and flooding,
people lack access to basic services.
Local Driver

Objectives
What matters to Timoreses well-being?
Quantity vs. quality of roads
Implications for ADBs operations?

Roads in Timor-Leste

Roads after rains (1)

Roads after rains (2)

Roads after rains (3)

Hypothesis
Quality matters more than quantity.
Qualityaccessibility during rainy season.
Quantitywalk time to facilities.

How to measure well-being?

Subjective, self-reported.
Concerning your households over the past
one month, which of the following is true?
More than adequatethe happiest
Just adequate
Less than adequatethe least happy

Empirical strategy

Ordered PROBIT Estimations

The marginal effects
Robustness check (1): OLS, OLOGIT
Robustness check (2): Redo with the 2001 TSLS

Dataset
Timor-Leste Survey of Living Standards (TSLS)
2007
Nationally representative
1,800 households

Summary of statistics
Variable
Road Access Variables:
Walk time (min.) to a community center ( WTACi )

No. of Obs.

Mean

S.D.

Min

Max

1,800

24.88

47.44

510

Walk time (min.) to nearest roads ( WTNRi )

1,800

8.62

22.34

210

Is road accessible during rainy season? ( RROADi )

1,800

0.84

0.37

1,513

----

----

----

----

Yes RROADi 1
No RROADi 0
Household Characteristics:
Rent expenditure, ln( rent i )

287

----

----

----

----

1,800

10.29

1.49

4.71

14.51

Utility consumption, ln(utility i )

1,749

8.97

1.05

5.30

12.61

Food consumption, ln( food i )

1,109

4.56

1.12

0.21

7.40

Non-food consumption, ln(nfood i )

1,704

2.41

1.27

0.01

6.62

Household size ( HHSIZEi )

1,800

5.06

2.51

1.0

19.0

Is a household poor? ( POORi )

1,800

0.21

0.41

384

----

----

----

----

1,416

----

----

----

----

1,800

0.91

0.29

1,629

----

----

----

----

171

----

----

----

----

378
72
252
1,098

-------------

-------------

-------------

-------------

Yes POORi 1
No POORi 0
Does your household have children? ( CHILDi )
Yes CHILDi 1
No CHILDi 0
Geographical Locations
Dili
Baucau
Other urban areas
Rural areas

Correlation matrix
WTACi
WTACi
WTNRi
RROADi
ln(rent i )
ln(utilityi )
ln( food i )
ln(nfood i )
HHSIZE i
POORi
CHILDi
Dili
Baucau
Other urban areas

WTNRi

RROADi ln(rent i )

ln(utilityi )

ln( food i )

ln(nfood i )

HHSIZE i

POORi

CHILDi

Dili

Bacau

Other urban

1
-0.005
0.06
0.04

1
-0.11
-0.09

1
-0.18

1
0.30
-0.21

1
-0.36

-0.10
-0.17

-0.07
-0.12

0.12
0.23

1
0.31

-0.01

0.04

-0.03

0.26

0.22

0.03
-0.05

-0.03
-0.003

0.03
0.03

0.46
-0.09

0.19
-0.24

0.29
-0.17

1
-0.01

0.18

0.19

-0.11

0.01

-0.12

0.13

-0.02

0.001

-0.16
0.04
-0.15
-0.03

-0.07
-0.04
-0.05
-0.01

0.07
0.09
0.17
0.02

-0.10
0.12
0.51
-0.02

-0.07
0.15
0.27
-0.05

-0.18
0.14
0.11
-0.07

-0.11
0.15
0.27
-0.07

0.30
0.01
0.23
0.03

-0.05
0.03
0.02
-0.09

OPROBIT Results
Dependent variable: Levels of subjective well-being
Food
Housing
Variable
***
.0002 (.0013) .0061 (.0016)
WTACi

WTNRi

RROAD i
ln(rent i )
ln(utility i )
ln( food i )
ln(nfood i )
HHSIZEi
POORi
CHILDi
Dili
Baucau
Other urban areas
No. of Obs.
Wald Chi-squared
Pseudo R-squared

.0001 (.0023)
***

.0051** (.0025)
***

Clothing
.0017 (.0015)

Healthcare
.0004 (.0012)

Income
.0009 (.0016)

.00001 (.0023)

.0036* (.0021)

.0034 (.0026)

.0046*** (.0017)
.0005 (.0026)

.7691 (.1209)
.0079 (.0344)

.4891*** (.1457)

.4573*** (.1300)

.0634* (.0375)

.0341* (.0362)

.1785*** (.0468)

.1570*** (.0448)

.1669*** (.0455)

.1323*** (.0418)

***

***

Child Edu.

.7432 (.1351)

.5328 (.1290)

.4208 (.1342)

.0674* (.0349)

.1722*** (.0362)

.1190*** (.0370)

.2261*** (.0448)

.1787*** (.0461)

.1312*** (.0390)

.1675*** (.0455)
.0026 (.0383)

.1014** (.0407)

.2762*** (.0444)
.0004 (.0374)

.1850*** (.0322)

.0701** (.0314)

.1737*** (.0333)

.0307 (.0324)

.1380*** (.0340)

.0705** (.0313)

.0613*** (.0194)

.0512*** (.0181)

.0567*** (.0196)

.0538*** (.0172)

.0842*** (.0183)

.3317*** (.1029)
.1176 (.1538)

.4467*** (.1100)
.2421 (.1622)

.3677*** (.1062)

.3001*** (.1142)

.1269 (.1891)

-----

.1139 (.1842)
.2057 (.1363)
.1905 (.1235)

.2850 (.1895)
.4275*** (.1418)
.2107 * (.1249)

.4576*** (.1542)
.0854 (.1920)
.3289** (.1358)
.3108** (.1225)

.3669*** (.1030)
.0867 (.1539)

.0618*** (.0186)
.1297 (.1107)

.1124 (.2076)
.2937 ** (.1341)
.1976 (.1321)

.4410** (.1984)
.1208 (.1363)
.1278 (.1314)

.0607 (.1957)
.1329 (.1372)
.3061** (.1336)

1,073

1,073

1,073

1,073

1,073

977

***

***

***

***

***

136.38**

.1263

.1008

232.59

.1638

202.71

.1677

211.71

.1703

162.18

.1115

140.84

How to read Marginal Effects (ME)?

If 1 min. further away
If road is accessible during rainy season
ME = Change in probability of reporting X

If Aldeia is farther by 1 min.,

If nearest roads farther by 1 min.,

If roads usable during rainy season

Implications on ADBs Operations

Road maintenance needed
Impact evaluationquantity vs. quality
Area for opsrehabilitation, all-weather roads
X No need for new roads
X Other economic outcomes?
X Project prioritization

Thank you.
Aekapol Chongvilaivan
achongvilaivan@adb.org
Kiyoshi Taniguchi
ktaniguchi@adb.org
Rommel Rabanal
rrabanal@adb.org