Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Sustainable Development:
Framing Policy, Measuring
Progress
Michael Replogle
Presentation at
Asian Development Bank
January 31, 2014
Transport
Improve Maternal Health
Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other dieseases
Ensure Environmental Sustainability
Develop a Global Partnership for Development
Still Rising
Traffic deaths
Traffic related air pollution
Inequality of access
Non-renewable fossil fuel use
Transport GHG emissions
Lock-in of high carbon,
unsustainable transport and
urban development patterns
Motor vehicle dependence
Private motor vehicle trip
share
3
Also Rising
National urban transport laws,
policies, funding programs
Effective motor vehicle emission
& fuel economy standards
Efforts to cut fossil fuel subsidies
High quality Bus Rapid Transit
Public bike programs
Parking reforms
Green freight initiatives
Awareness that sustainable
transport is vital enabler of
sustainable development
4
Integrated
Transport
System
Management
Supply side
Demand side
HOV
lanes
New
highways
Adding
lanes
New railway
lines
Toll roads
Smart
Growth
Cordon
tolls
HOT
lanes
Traffic
calming
Public transport
priority
Parking
control
Congestion
charges
Information
systems
Taxation
policy
5
Solutions for
Sustainable
Transport
Avoid
Shift
Shift to more
efficient
transport
modes
Improve
Improve fuel
and vehicle
technologies
and transport
network
management
Key Processes on
Sustainable Transport and
Sustainable Development
UN General
Assembly
1
2
3
4
UN-Secretary General
led:
3
Friends of Sustainable Transport
High Level Panel of Eminent Persons on
Post-2015 Development Agenda
Open Working Group on Sustainable
Development Goals
Country (Party)
led:
Open Working
Group on
Sustainable
Development
Goals (SDGS)
Intergovernmental
commi ee for
financing of
sustainable
development
(Hungary and
Kenya led)
(Norway and
Kazakhstan led)
(internal UN-team)
Target
Target
Target
Access
Economic
Traffic related deaths and serious injuries are cut in half by 2030
Social
Cut PM10 from transport 80% by 2030 and achieve universal sulfur of 50
PPM or less by 2030. Reduce GHG emissions from transport by 1.6-2.5
GT by 2020 globally and cut black carbon by 60% by 2030
Environmental
9
Public
transport
Sustainable
transport
Non-
500 Staff to
provide
knowledge
& expertise
Green
freight
motorized
transport
Urban
transport
Assistance
to 150
Countries
10
11
Initial reporting
on Rio+20
Voluntary
Commitments
13
Sustainable Transport
Appraisal Rating (STAR)
Transparent
Suited for Ex-Ante Evaluation
STAR Application
Context
uptake by member
developing
countries
Setting
Situation
analysis
management
performance
evaluation
Assess
Performance
Performance
Evaluation
country plans
Objective
Align
Investment
Planning
Maximize
ST
Objectives
Performance
indicators
Evaluate
Results
Monitor
Implementation
Optimize
portfolio
analysis
Project Concept
Appraise
Project Approval
annual
progress
evaluation
15
Considerations
MDBs vary in approach to
sustainability appraisal
MDB reporting on GHG impacts
of transport
Appraising sustainable
transport in country plans influence requests of member
developing countries
Complementing STAR with
global sustainable transport
results framework, analysis &
monitoring
16
17
Credit: Yang JIANG, Daizong LIU, Suping CHEN, Assessment Tools for China LowCarbonCity Projects From the CSTCs Perspective, 2011
17
18
Research Questions
19
Approach
20
21
60
50
40
Pass Rail
30
Buses
20
Air
10
LDV
2-3W
2010
2050
4DS
OECD
2050
2DS
2010
2050
4DS
2050
2DS
Non-OECD
7
22
23
24
Non-OECD
OECD
Implied City
Population
Time of day
3,436,426 peak
off peak
total all day
8,000,000 peak
off peak
total all day
Assumed
average trip
Total daily pkmslength, kms Total trips per day
4,320,000
1,440,000
5,760,000
6
6
720,000
240,000
960,000
0.21
0.07
0.28
10%
3%
14%
2,160,000
720,000
2,880,000
6
6
360,000
120,000
480,000
0.05
0.02
0.06
2%
1%
3%
Population in
Total population Total urban pop BRT cities
(billions)
(billions)
(billions)
Non-OECD
OECD
World
8.1
1.4
9.5
5.0
1.2
6.3
total system
length
(thousand Total BRT Travel per
kms)
day (mil pkm/day)
2.5
0.6
3.1
67.9
8.5
76.3
3,910
244
4,153
1.6
0.4
1.3
1,427
89
1,516
Passenger travel
per km of system
length (mil
pkm/km/year)
21.0
10.5
19.9
20
25
26
26
27
27
28
28
29
29
E-bikes a revolution?
Development of projection e-bike ownership per capita
30
30
31
31
33
32
Reporting levels
Countries/regions in MoMo
OECD
North
America
Euope
OECD
Pacific
Africa /
Middle
East
Asia
Americas
USA
Canada
Mexico
USA/Canada
Mexico
OECD Europe
Other EU/non-OECD
Eastern Europe
Former Soviet Union (CEE) Europe
Japan
S Korea
Austrailia/NZ
South Africa
Middle East/North Africa
Other Africa
OECD Pacific
Africa/Middle East
China
India
ASEAN
Russia
Asian Transition Economies (ATE)
Other Developing Asia (ODA)
Brazil
Chile
Other Latin America/Caribbean
China
India
Russia
Other Asia (ASEAN/ODA/ATE)
Brazil
Other LAC
10
33
11
34
35
35
36
26%
Use of Roadspace in Key
Corridors, Chennai, India
64%
37
Bogota: for those with incomes below USD 20,000, public transport
plays the dominant role in providing mobility.
We need to document such distributions across income, gender and
age groups and develop projection systems to understand how well
different future transport/mode configurations will likely serve
different parts of the population.
Trips per day per capita
40
38
39
40
Project &
Portfolio
Need to take
care to evaluate
system-wide
impacts, induced
demand
Plan &
Region
Optimal scale to
consider system
impacts for
metropolitan
plans/programs
Nation
Often best for
evaluating large
networks and
system policies
41
42
4. BRT
5. LRT/MRT
6. Roads Projects Expressways, Rural Roads and Urban
Roads
7. Railway
8. City Sketch Analysis and Other Strategies - Commuter
Strategies, Pricing Strategies, Eco-Driving , PAYD
Insurance
44
44
Emissions from
the motorized
vehicles within the
scope of the
analysis are
quantified under
the baseline
scenario
Activity
Structure
Average occupancies
Vehicle fuel split
Vehicle emission standards split
Intensity
Fuel
45
45
Activity
Structure
Average occupancies
Vehicle fuel split
Vehicle emission standards split
Intensity
Fuel
46
46
and shortcuts
Integration of peerreviewed BRT
Scorecard
Inclusion of more
co-benefits in
Results page
47
Conclusions
Macro trends still in the wrong direction
Promising developments portend a
turning point
Results framework for sustainable
development impacts of sustainable
transport needed if transport is to gain
under SDGs
Need to strengthen equity analysis for
sustainable transport
Tools are available at project and global
level
48
Michael Replogle
Institute for Transportation &
Development Policy
49