Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Dr, Thrivikramji.K.P.
thrivikramji@gmil.com
We haumans take for granted many of the natural processes, like for
example the sunrise and sunset, the new moon and full moon, the
seasons, weather and even climate. Yet we also know of unpredictable
natural phenomena like, earthquakes, volcanic eruption, tsunamis, to
some degree tornadoes,floods and storm surges. However, in spite of
the steady growth of scientific knowledge, the graph of our
understanding of many of the earths/atmosphericuncertainties,show
an uptrend. Climate is one of those. An uncertain climate future has
deep implications in respect of future of mankind for the simplest
reason that the current life style is evolved from designed and built
around a domain of steady climate state or invariant climate state.
Now, for example, let us take a peek at the nature/needfor steady
state climate. It is simple and obvious that most of the human
activities/responses/plans, like school and college reopening and
closure, both summer and winter Olympics, US open or Australian
open, Football season, manufacturing and mining, farming and
harvesting, tourist and sporting season etc. are planned/designed /
scheduled by factoring in the of climate (assumed as steady state
phenomenon) per se. Any departure from the norm(of seasons rooted
on climate zones of the earth), is beyond human comprehension.
Again amongothers, only Geoscientists have come to terms with the
question of climate shifts or climate change in the geologic past. The
planet earth had gone through three periods or phases glaciations
including the latest one the Pleistocene glaciation. During glacial
phases the surface temperature of the earth was frigid and most of
the surface waters remained frozen. Earth also had gone through
extreme aridity regionally. Such climate departures are encrypted in
the isotopic, rock or fossil record in the different continents and
oceanic sediemnts
Yet, all the finer research about the climate of the geologic past was a
nonissue among scientists and justifiably so among the heads of states
and nations and hence for the commoners. Now the picture is
different. The GHGs (green house gases, like water vapour, CO2, CH4,
N2O and O3 )blanket around the planet earth and absorb the IR
radiation but prevents it from getting back to the atmosphere
resulting in slow warming of the earths atmosphere. The prediction is
that by the end of his century the surface temperature might reach
1.5 2.0 C if the emission of GHGs continue to rise and CO2 rises
beyond 400 pm.
Table 1, Effects, degree of likelihood and manifesting impacts of Global Climate Change
(Gilman et al, 2007)
Geophysical effect
Higher max. Temp.,
more hot days, and heat
waves over nearly all
landmasses
Probabil
ity
Very
likely
(9099%)
Very
likely
(9099%)
More intense
precipitation events
Very
likely
(9099%)
Likely
(6790%)
Increased summer
drying over most of midlatitude continental
interiors & associated
risk of drought.
Increase in tropical
cyclone peak intensities,
mean and peak
precipitation intensities
Increased droughts and
floods associated with El
Nino events
Likely
(6790%)
Likely
(6790%)
Likely Impacts
Increased deaths and serious illness in older age
groups & urban poor; increased heat stress in
livestock & wildlife; increased risk of damage to
a number of crops; increased electric cooling
demand & reduced energy supply reliability.
Decreased cold related morbidity & mortality;
decreased risk of damage to a number of crops &
increased risk to others; extended range &
activity of pests & other disease vectors; reduced
heating energy demand.
Increased flood, landslide, mudslide & avalanche
damage; increased soil erosion; increased flood
run off; increased recharge of some flood plain
aquifers
Decreased crop yields, increased damage to
building foundations caused by ground
shrinkage; decreased water resource quantity
and quality; increased risk of forest fire.
Increased risk to human life and risk of increased
infectious disease epidemics; increased coastal
erosion and damage to coastal buildings and
infrastructure; increased damage to coastal
ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangrove
swamps.
Decreased agricultural & rangeland productivity
in drought and flood prone regions; Decreased
hydropower potential in drought prone regions