COMFTF07

Composition
First Things First
Causal Relationships
Dr. David F. Maas

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Key Terms
Adequacy of causes for Mistaking cause for the Predicting contradictory
effects effect effects
Capacity to produce effect Mistaking effect for the Rationalization
cause
Cause/Effect Chain Multiple causes Single cause fallacy
Concurrent Fallacy Necessary cause Stages in causal reasoning
Contributory Cause Nullification of predicted Sufficient cause
effects
Errors in causal reasoning Post hoc ergo propter hoc
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(01) Perhaps the most important of the logical relationships is the cause and effect. We
want to know not only what happens but why it happens. We want to know why the
national debt can’t be brought under control. We want to know why we have
unemployment, why we have inflation, why we have recession, why the stock market
plunges 300 points. We want to know why our cities decay from the inside out. We
want to know the effects of using pesticides and herbicides in large quantities for both the
immediate and long range consequences. We want to know the cause of our young
people taking LSD and Crack.. We want to know the short and long range effects of their
acquired habit. We want to know why gang violence is on the increase in the affluent
suburbs. GM, Ford, and Chrysler want to know why the Japanese and German car
manufacturers are bearing the pants off from them.

(02) Divorced people want to know why their marriages fell apart. The student wants
to know why he failed the exam.

(03) Causal reasoning may move in either direction from the cause to the effect or the
effect to the cause. As a matter of fact, the effect may become another cause. Consider
the following example:
• Work piles up.
• I feel under stress because of the work piling up.
• I sip three glasses of Vodka to relieve stress.
• I become mellow and allow work to pile up.
• I feel anxiety because while I became inebriated more work piled up.
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• I down myself for letting work pile up.
• I feel guilty in so doing.
• The guilt leads to stress.
• I sip three glasses of Vodka to relieve stress..

(04) Dr. Albert Ellis in his book Overcoming Procrastination illustrates how an effect
can become a further cause:

Consider Debbie’s problem of doing the dishes:

Activating Event- observing dirty dishes in the sink.
Beliefs- “How annoying to clean them, but I’d better.” (rational).
“ I can’t stand this mess. It looks too tough to tackle.” (irrational)
Consequence- frustration.(rational)
Reaction- do the dishes.(rational)
or--avoid doing the dishes. (irrational) (Ellis, Overcoming
Procrastination, p29-30)

(05) Ellis gives us another example of a cause producing an effect which later becomes
another cause:

Thirteen-year-old Paul keeps thinking he would like to clean up part of the cellar
at his parents’ house in order to make a game room. He has contemplated this for
the past three years and, rather than getting started, he tries not to think about the
long-delayed project because when he reminds himself to do some work he
lambasts himself for the time he already has wasted. (Ellis, Overcoming
Procrastination, P.9)

(06) Since cause/effect relationships are complex, we will need to adopt certain
analytical procedures. The causes of effects and the effects do not always become
immediately apparent. The next portion of this lesson we will stress terminology, stages
in causal reasoning, and a list of problems that frequently occur in causal analysis.

Types of Causes

(07) We can classify causes as Necessary, Sufficient, or Contributory .

(08) We can picture this arrangement as a hierarchy ranging from the “May Cause’” to
“Must Cause.” Contributory causes are far more numerous than sufficient or necessary.

Necessary

Sufficient

Contributory
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Necessary Causes

(09) The necessary cause must be present in order for the effect to occur.
For example, the Flu virus must be present in order for the effect (the disease) to occur.

• A person may make himself more susceptible by staying up until 4:00 AM.
• A person may make himself more susceptible by a haphazard diet of junk food.
• A person may make himself more susceptible by walking around in the rain with no
shoes.
• A person may make himself more susceptible by sitting in a draft.

(10) But we can consider none of these items as the necessary cause of the Flu. The
Flu Bug has to attack before the willfully derelict individual gets the Flu.

Example: Necessary Cause: A spark is necessary to ignite a gasoline engine.

The HIV virus must be present for AIDS to occur.

Sufficient Causes

(11) A Sufficient Cause has the capability of producing an effect unaided. More than
one sufficient cause may produce the same effect.

Example: A cough can be produced by a cold virus, pneumonia, emphysema,

lung cancer, tuberculosis, an abscess on the larynx, smog, tobacco juice, Tabasco
sauce, or chalk dust.

Example: A dead battery can prevent a car from starting, but so can a faulty
spark-plug, water in the distributor, or no gasoline.

(12) A number of years ago the idea of sufficient causes became very clear to me
when I took my car into a mechanic when it started to sputter and falter I asked in
desperation, “Harry, what could be causing this problem?”
Harry replied, “Could be fuel filter.” A fuel filter at that time cost $15.
When he replaced the filter, I asked, “Harry, are you sure it is the fuel filter that’s
causing the problem?”
He pointed to the dirty old filter, exclaiming, “Look how dirty this is. No wonder
the car wouldn’t run.”
Happily I took the car down the street, only to have the sputtering symptoms
return I immediately drove back to Harry’s shop.
“Harry,” I shouted, I thought we had the problem solved. What could be the
cause of this?
Harry reflectively replied, “ Could be fuel pump - that would run around $75.”
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“Are you sure Harry?”, I asked. “That’s a lot of money.”
“I will check it on my computerized diagnostic gauge.”
The gauge revealed that the fuel pump was defective.
Reluctantly I agreed to have him replace the fuel pump and again I drove on my
way. After a few moments the symptoms returned again.
I drove back to Harry’s garage in anger, yelling, “I thought you fixed the problem.
What else could it possibly be?”
Harry looked pensively at the car, and said, “Could be dirty carburetor.”
“Oh sure,” I retorted . “You were so sure that it was the fuel filter and the fuel
pump.”
“Both were defective,” he said, “either one of those things could have produced
the symptoms alone.”
“OK,” I sighed, perhaps we should look at the carburetor.”
Harry took it apart, showing me the gummed up parts.
“Look here,” he exclaimed, “Carburetor is filthy. No wonder the car sputtered and
complained.” I bit the bullet and put the $150 expense on my credit card. On my way out
of Harry’s lot, the car started to cough and sputter again. This time I was on the verge of
tears.
“Harry ,” I sobbed, “What is wrong with my car?”
“Could be water in gas tank.”
We siphoned out the gasoline, draining the water, refilling the tank with fresh gasoline.
The car worked like a charm.
We had isolated all the potential causes, finding that they all could have produced
the effect unaided.

Contributory Causes

(13) A contributory cause can help to produce an effect, but cannot do so by itself.
.
• Example: Running through a red light may cause an accident.
• Example: Skipping class may cause a failing grade when linked with other
causes.
• Example: Smoking may contribute to lung cancer, but it is not necessarily the
major cause or the sole cause.( The body can withstand remarkable abuse).

Stages in Causal Reasoning

(14) James Mc Crimmon has identified three stages in causal reasoning:

1. Whatever the cause, it must exist in the situation and must be sufficient to
produce the effect.

This step requires the investigator to identify all of the possible causes, isolating
which of the possible causes could be sufficient to produce the effect.

Example: The cold water in the Dorm shower could be cause from:
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• a defective fuse
• power company failure
• burned out element
• excessive use of shower by room mate

Any one of these (with the possible exception of the last one) could bring about
the effect unaided.

2. If a sufficient cause is eliminated from the situation, the effect will be

eliminated unless there are other causes. If the effect ceases when we remove
the possible cause, the possible cause is the cause.

Example: If we suspect that a faulty bulb is the cause for no light, we simply
make a substitution-with a new bulb. If it is the cause we look no further , not ruling out
the possibility that the original bulb may only be a contributory cause.
Remember that the bulb, the fuse, the wiring, or the outlet could all be sufficient
causes either individually, in tandem, or in a series.

Example: If a faulty chip is replaced in a transmitter, the capacitor, the resistor or

rectifier could all be at fault.

3. If the cause is introduced into a similar situation, it should bring about a

similar effect.

Example: If we suspect a faulty battery, fuse, or bulb, we could insert one into a
different socket or receptacle where one has been operating. If the battery or fuse
doesn’t work, or the light doesn’t turn on, we reject our hypothesis. But if the fuse
or battery work or the lightbulb turns on, we have additional support for our belief
in the original hypothesis.

Errors in Causal Reasoning

(15) Louise Rohrabacher has identified ten separate errors in causal reasoning:

1. Mistaking a time connection for a causal one.

This error has sometimes been referred to as the Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc
fallacy, translated into English as “ After this , therefore because of this.”

Superstitions are based upon this fallacy:

• After I touched the toad, I got warts.
• An owl hooted before Uncle Marvin’s death. An owl hooting will
somehow bring about death.
• Labor Day, because it always occurs before the opening of school must somehow
cause the opening of school.
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• The 9:00 class occurs before the 10:00 class. The 9:00 class must cause the 10:00
class.
• I don’t want to hold hands with any girl. When Travis held Cindy’s hand, he
flunked his spelling test.
• After Hoover was elected, we had a Depression. Hoover caused the Depression.
• After General Scocroft went to China, martial law was lifted. Scocroft’s
diplomacy produced the lifting of martial law.

2. Mistaking for a cause things that coincidentally happen at the same time-
also known as the concurrent fallacy.

If two things are concurrent ( take place at the same time), It does not mean that
they are related.
Example: If the Southern Baptist Convention and the National Gay Coalition hold
their meetings in the same city or perhaps the same hotel, we cannot assume that
the two events must be related.

Example: Colored leaves in the fall are believed to be caused by the frost.

Some things are genuinely coincidental such as the incident in which a young
lady accused a man of following her when actually they were going in the same
direction at the same time for a totally unrelated reason.

3. Beware of the single cause fallacy. We cannot settle for one single cause if
there are more.

Most effects stem from multiple causes rather than just one. Remember, the last
straw did not break the camel’s back by itself. The single cause fallacy results
from jumping to conclusions.

Example: A motorist hears someone honking at him. He jumps to the conclusion

that they want him to go faster. Other reasons the other motorist may be honking
could include:
• His transmission may be coming loose
• He may be honking because he recognizes him
• He may have a bumper sticker which reads, “Honk if you love Jesus.”

Many newspaper headlines reveal the single cause fallacy:

• Sex education causes promiscuity.
• Television destroys a student’s capacity to read.
• Comic books cause juvenile delinquency.

James Mc Crimmon suggests that attributing racial strife to differences in skin

color ignores the other social and economic causes. Randal Decker suggests that
the writer who brings his old prejudices to the task of causal analysis or fails to
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see the probability of multiple causes or effects is certain to destroy his analysis,
making it so superficial it becomes worthless.

4. Be sure to distinguish between immediate and remote causes.

Example: Instructor “ Why are you here at Texas College?”

Student: “Because my father married my mother.”

This line of reasoning starts back too far. We need to look at the immediate rather
than the remote causes.

Example: “Why did Jeffrey Dhamer slay those young boys and have homosexual
relations with them?”
“Well, it all started with Cain and Abel.” or “It all started when Lucifer
decided to rebel against God.”
“Why is Elizabeth Taylor’s marriage on the rocks?’
“It all started in the Garden of Eden when Eve decided to eat the
forbidden fruit.”

Actually, when we think about it, in one sense everything in the universe could be
said to be influenced by everything else in the universe. Nothing occurs in a
complete vacuum.

One summer a health inspector closed down a large canning factory in the
Midwest. The inspector closed it down after going through his checklist of
recommendations of improvements. A filthy rag hanging over the conveyor belt
to prevent a leak was the “ last straw.” The “last straw” did not break the camel’s
back alone. The filthy rag in one sense served as a symbol, representing
management’s refusal to replace pipes and equipment. The refusal to replace
equipment was caused by the ever pervasive desire to make a profit . The desire to
make a profit was influenced by higher production costs, labor costs, and weather
factors. All of these factors were also influenced by the economic well-being of
the nation. The nation’s economic well-being was influenced by foreign
economies.

In 1991, Iraqi Foreign Minister insisted that Iraq invaded Kuwait because Israel
occupied the West Bank. Such tangential remote excuses for such bizarre
behavior doesn’t even qualify as a rationalization, but represents a tortured
extremely remote cause.

5. Be sure the cause has the capacity to produce the effect.

Louise Rohrabacher describes an incident in which a person leaves a big juicy

beef steak on the table. When he returned, the steak was gone. If a huge Great
Dane or Black Labrador were left in the house, and perhaps further circumstantial
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evidence appeared such as red bloody juice dripping from the muzzle, distended
ribs on the dog, a sheepish look on the dog’s face, etc., we have a prime suspect.
A lone kitten asleep in the corner would be exonerated.

Back in 1349, the Black Death wiped out 2/3 of Europe’s population. The Jews
were blamed for poisoning the wells. There were not that many Jews in all of
Europe to accomplish such a task.

A story circulated about a man who went down in a mine with a hammer and saw.
The mine later collapsed and the man was blamed. It was later determined that the
width of the beams and the sturdiness of the structure made it impossible for the
man to inflict that much damage and eventually another explanation was sought.

6. Be sure that the causes are adequate for the effects - can actually get the job
done.

One president thought that by cutting taxes and cutting the budget, the economic
problems would solve themselves. The immediate effects led to investor’s putting
their monies into foreign markets rather than the domestic economy, causing the
closing of plants and unemployment to rise.

Proponents of Women’s Suffrage felt that the vote would cure society’s ills and
bring equality for all. Proponents of the ERA amendment naively assume the
same thing. The ERA will probably be as effective at promoting equality as the
balanced budget amendment will bring our deficit under control. The O.E.O. did
not do away with poverty. The crime bill, replete with midnight basketball and
handicrafts will not do away with gang violence. Economic ills cannot be treated
until the complexity of the issue is addressed and the greed factor of human nature
is checked.

The argument that productivity itself will improve the economy fails to take into
account that productivity by itself will not bring down prices unless companies
are willing to turn out more for less profit.

7. Allow for causes that may nullify predicted effects.

Example: The increase in the minimum wage is a short sighted view some labor
leaders see as a solution. But wage increases lead to higher prices to pay for the
wage increases-leading to another unfortunate effect -a higher cost of living-
refueling a demand for another wage increase.

Example: When the federal government closed down Fort Ord and the San Diego
Shipyard, it did so as an economy move, not realizing that depressing the local
economy created a greater demand for disaster relief, wiping out all the economic
gains.
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Example: People feel more empowered if they are given more credit, but the
more credit one has, the more the bank reckons the liabilities potential. If you
can borrow $50,000 on your signature, you can also owe the bank $50,000 on your
signature.

Example: Governmental subsidies can prop up prices artificially, but can weaken
company’s resolve to compete in the world market.

8. Avoid predicting contradictory effects.

Example: Sometimes it is impossible for two predicted effects to exist side by

side. Louise Rohrabacher once used the example of a politician who promised to
lower taxes, increase public works, increase military spending and social
programs, and balance. the budget.

Example: The recent health care package which would commandeer 1/7 of the
national economy would cost the average tax payer more, and would not
constitute free health care at all.

9. Do not mistake the cause for the effect or the effect for the cause.

Example: Louise Rohrabacher suggests that Medieval philosophers tried to

substantiate the goodness of God because He made a great river run through every
city.

Example: We hear about the old farmer who says,” If I’d Known I was going to
have such nice children I would have picked a better mother for ‘em.” (not
realizing that the mother was a contributory cause of his nice children.)

Example: We hear the caution, “Don’t eat too much sugar. You will get
diabetes.” Actually , sugar consumption is a symptom , not a cause of diabetes.

Example: When people think that a high fever causes the Flu, they will think that
putting ice packs on their forehead will actually cure the Flu.

Example: When a motorist blames a car’s inefficiency on the knocking of the

engine, he might be tempted to muffle the sound, masking the real problem.

Example: One naive horse trainer in Baldwin Park , California blamed his
horse’s lack of performance on the pain in its legs. After he injected anti-pain
drugs, the horse broke its leg and had to be destroyed.
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10. Avoid the pitfall of rationalization.

A rationalization constitutes a false or superficial reason replacing the real one.

Example: The driver blames a failing brake or road conditions for his own
carelessness.

Example: The tailgater blames the car in front of him for stopping abruptly.

Example: The musician blames a faulty spit valve or too much resin on the bow
or bad action on the piano keys.(Instead of his own lack of practice.)
Example: The bowler who blames his poor performance on - “ The light was bad,
the ball had a chip on the side, my shoe came untied” rather than his own lack of
practice rationalizes away the real reason.

Example: The student who skips nine classes fails the course. He then blames
the teacher who, ”Didn’t teach me anything.”

Example: The student who procrastinates on his research paper blames a

computer failure or the perennial, “ the dog peed on it” excuse for his own
laziness.

Example: We hear the old story of the man who goes into the radio station for a
job interview.

Man “ wh wh wh where ah ah ah ah ah are th th th in in in inter views fo fo fo

for th th th the a a a an n n n n nounce er j j j j job”

Receptionist: Go down the hall and turn to the right at the first door.

After a few minutes the man returned down the hall , sighing, “ j j j j ju ju ju jus
just a a a as as as I I I I th th th th thought s s s s s same o o o old s s s story. Th th
th th they j j j j just wo wo wo wo won’t h h h hi hi hire a a an an any C C C C C
Ca Ca Ca Catholics.”
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Instructional Objectives

1. Define and illustrate the cause/effect or relational proposition. 01-01

2. Identify some of the concerns for which the cause/effect relationship may be
applied. 01-01
3. Illustrate a cause/effect chain from the cause to effect or the effect to the cause.
01-03
4. Differentiate among necessary, sufficient, and contributory causes. 02-08
5. Define and illustrate the necessary cause. 02-09
6. Identify and describe the post hoc (time connection) error in causal reasoning.
05-15
7. Define and illustrate the sufficient cause. 03-11
8. Define and illustrate the contributory cause. 04-13
9. Identify and describe Mc Crimmon’s three stages in causal reasoning. 04-14
10. Identify and describe the concurrent fallacy. 05-16
11. Identify and describe the single cause fallacy. 06-17
12. Distinguish between immediate and remote causes. 06-18
13. Illustrate how a cause must have the capacity to produce the effect. 07-19
14. Illustrate how causes must be adequate for the effect - can get the job done. 08-20
15. Illustrate causes that nullify predicted effects. 08-21
16. Illustrate the fallacy of predicting contradictory effects. 09-22
17. Illustrate the fallacious problem of mistaking the cause for the effect or the effect
for the cause. 09-23
18. Define and illustrate the fallacious error of rationalization. 09-24
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Suggested Writing Assignments

1. Write an essay with a title such as “I changed My Mind About . . . “ or “I Used to

Think . . . “in which you organize your material into three sections: your original
attitude toward something (a sport, activity, profession, person): the cause of
your change of mind; your present attitude. Devote most of your attention to the
cause of the change and its effects. Identify necessary, sufficient, and
contributory causes.

2. Write an essay in which you answer the following questions:

a. What is my biggest frustration or problem?

b. What are the causes of the problem or frustration?

(1) What is the principal or necessary cause?

(2) What are the possible sufficient causes?

(3) What are the contributory causes?

c. What are all the possible solutions or strategies for solving the problem?

d. What is the best or most feasible solution?

The essay should be divided into four sections, each constituting at least a
paragraph in which the topic sentence will be a declarative sentence, answering
the questions posed above.

The essay should not be an abrupt or perfunctory list but should be a continuous,
well-developed theme, supported by concrete detail on relatively low levels of
abstraction. Cause and effect can be conveyed by (1) explicit statements such as
“A is the cause of B” or “B is the effect of A” or (2) by transitional words and
phrases, e.g., because, therefore, consequently, in order that, as a result, for, since,
then, thus.