EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

AREA SCAN : PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF CHINA

SYNDICATE 4
B DIV

GUIDE DS
GP CAPT S ANANDAN

SYNDICATE NO 4
NAME OF THE STUDENT OFFICER

COURSE

1.

LT COL RS SANDHU

TSOC 40 (ARMY)

2.

LT COL AMIT KARNWAL(SYN LDR)

TSOC 40 (ARMY)

3.

WG CDR R TYAGI

TSOC 23 (AF)

4.

WG CDR B JANARTHAN

TSOC 23 (AF)

5.

MAJ PK GILL

TSOC 40 (ARMY)

6.

MAJ SANDEEP SHARMA, SM

TSOC 40 (ARMY)

7.

MAJ HIMANSHU PANDEY

TSOC 40 (ARMY)

8.

MAJ SRINIVAS PARTHASARTHY

TSOC 40 (ARMY)

9.

MAJ A BOSE

TSOC 40 (ARMY)

10.

MAJ IRFAN KHAN

TSOC 40(ARMY)

11.

LT H JAISWAL

NTSC

12.

LT R RAHEEM

NTSC

METHODOLOGY
1.
China commands a towering posn in the Asian theatre. The 21st century is often
touted as the Asian Century and in this Great Asian Game China is undoubtedly the
star player. India though are no pushovers in this arena and future where India emerges
as the pre-dominant force is just waiting to happen. This therefore puts India firmly on
the Chinese radar both as an ally as well as an adversary. Therefore turning a blind eye
to China its rise and its motivations would be suicidal to say the least for an emerging
nation like India.
2.
But there is a lot more than meets the eye as far as China is concerned.
Secretive as they are, often what is seen is only the tip of an edifice which is bigger
than what most of us can fathom in our imaginations. Any study on China therefore has
to delve deep into the fine print and derive lessons for India in this dynamic scenario.
3.
Given the complexity of this nation which is a enigma to the world stating what
the Chinese do or have done is never sufficient. One has to think like the Chinese and
pre-empt their actions and understand what they mean when they say what they say. In
order to equip oneself to do so a holistic view of our northern neighbour not just from a
military point of view but a historic, geo-strategic, diplomatic and economic point of view
is essential.
Aim
4.
The aim of the study is therefore to carry out a comprehensive analysis of China
with special emphasis to the current politico military situation and the impact it shall
have on Indias present and future. All this has to be done in the backdrop of the huge
historic baggage that China carries.
Scope and Methodology
5.
The study concentrates on the developments in China in the current millennium
with pertinent references to the events that lead up to the China of today. The study
therefore also briefly covers the historical background of China, its geography, its
political system and governance and its foreign policy. The study also covers the
Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) to include the PLA, the PLAAF, the PLAN and the
Second Artillery. The study thereafter proceeds to analyze implications of a rising China
for India and the way ahead for India. As for India Taming the Dragon is essential to
its peaceful existence in this century.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
AREA SCAN : CHINA

1.
As students studying the politico-military strategic aspects of the world and as
Indians in particular, it is imperative to analyse and research our closest competitor,
who many believe, will dictate the future of the 21 st Century. As immediate neighbours
with unresolved boundary disputes, a large trade imbalance and increasing Chinese
footprint in the Indian Ocean Region, we need to closely study the resurgence of China
and its ramifications on our own security paradigm. Accordingly, the Area Scan Study
on China takes a plunge , on the issues of relevance under following heads:(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
(g)
(h)
(i)
(j)

Geography & Terrain.

The Historical Perspective of China.
Political structure and Governance.
Economy.
The PLA, AF & Navy.
International relations.
Internal fault lines.
SWOT analysis.
Implications for India.
The Way ahead.

2.
China ,officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a sovereign state
located in East Asia. It is the world's most populous country, with a population of over
1.39 billion. The PRC is a single-party state governed by the Communist Party, with its
seat of government in the capital city of Beijing. It exercises jurisdiction over 22
provinces, five autonomous regions, four direct-controlled municipalities (Beijing,
Tianjin, Shanghai,
and Chongqing),and
two
mostly
self-governing Special
Administrative Regions (Hong Kong and Macau). The PRC also claims Taiwan which
is controlled by the Republic of China (ROC), a separate political entity as its 23rd
province, a claim which is controversial due to the complex political status of Taiwan.
3.
Geography & Terrain. Covering approximately 9.6 million square kilometers,
China is the world's second-largest country by land area, and either the third or fourthlargest by total area. China's landscape is vast and diverse, ranging from forest
steppes and the Gobi and Taklamakan deserts in the arid north to subtropical forests in
the wetter south. The Himalaya, Karakoram, Pamir and TianShan mountain ranges
separate China from South and Central Asia. The Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, the thirdand sixth-longest in the world, run from the Tibetan Plateau to the densely populated
eastern seaboard. China's coastline along the Pacific Ocean is 14,500 kilometres
(9,000 mi) long, and is bounded by the Bohai, Yellow, East and South China Seas.

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4.
Historical Perspective of China. The history of China goes back to the ancient
civilization one of the world's earliest that flourished in the fertile basin of the Yellow
River in the North China Plain. For millennia, China's political system was based on
hereditary monarchies, known as dynasties, beginning with the semi-mythological Xia of
the Yellow River basin (c. 2000 BCE). Since 221 BCE, when the Qin Dynasty first
conquered several states to form a Chinese empire, the country has expanded, fractured
and been reformed numerous times. The Republic of China (ROC) overthrew the last
dynasty in 1911, and ruled the Chinese mainland until 1949.
5.
After the defeat of the Empire of Japan in World War II, the Communist Party
defeated the nationalist Kuomintang in mainland China and established the People's
Republic of China in Beijing on 1 October 1949, while the Kuomintang relocated the ROC
government to its present capital of Taipei. Subsequent turn of events marked China's
transition from a planned economy to a mixed economy with an increasingly open market
environment, a system termed by some as "market socialism", and officially by the
Communist Party of China as "Socialism with Chinese characteristics". The PRC adopted
its current constitution on 4 December 1982.
6.
Politics & Governance. The new Chinese leadership has consolidated Chinas
approach to secure its core interests and the resultant continuation of Chinas policies
have evidently impacted upon the regional security landscape. In spite of the official
focus of the recently concluded Third Plenary Session of the 18 th CPC on
"Comprehensively Deepening Reform", the emphasis of the new leadership towards
attaining the Chinese Dream has generated intense deliberations. The stress on
development, the need to protect Chinese interests overseas, internal security issues
and continued modernisation of the PLA are the issues of immediate concern to the
new leadership.
7.
Economy. The Economy of China stretches over thousands of years and
has undergone alternating cycles of prosperity and decline. China was for a large part
of the last two millennia the world's largest and most advanced economy. Since the
introduction of economic reforms in 1978, China has become one of the world's fastestgrowing major economies. As of 2013, it is the world's second-largest economy by
both nominal total GDP and purchasing power parity (PPP), and is also the world's
largest exporter and importer of goods. China is also a member of numerous formal and
informal multilateral organizations, including the WTO, APEC, BRICS, the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization, the BCIM and the G-20.
8.
Peoples Liberation Army (PLA). China is modernising its forces, emphasizing
preparations to fight and win short-duration, high-intensity conflicts under
informationalised conditions. The PLA is working toward these goals by acquiring
modern weapon systems, new military capabilities including exploitation of cyber space
as a military domain, promulgating new doctrines for modern war fighting, reforming
military institutions and improving exercise / training standards. In future, PLA
capabilities could pose a credible threat to modern militaries operating in the region.
The study not only covers the aspects of PLA but of AF and Navy too.

3
9.
International Status/ Relations. The PRC has been a United Nations member
since 1971, when it replaced the ROC as a permanent member of the U.N. Security
Council. China is a recognized nuclear weapons state and has the world's largest
standing army, with the second-largest defence budget. China is a regional power
within Asia and has been characterized as a potential superpower by a number of
commentators. The current strategic balance of power in Asia remains uncertain.
Present US administrations policies are aimed at strengthening US military alliances
and strategic partnerships in Asia and simultaneous repositioning its forces. With
considerable US military presence in the region, it is but natural for China to assess that
this rebalancing is directed towards it. This has exposed Asia to a possible power play
and evident rivalry in the East China Sea and South China Sea. Chinas aggression
over its maritime territorial claims in these seas has evidently aggravated already
antagonized Sino-Japanese relations.
Even fish are not exempt from Chinese territorial claims. While provocation may
not be Chinese intention, her neighbours hardly feel reassured.
10.
Meanwhile China has made extensive forays into Africa and CAR. In addition,
she has also invested heavily in her relations with Russia and other neighbours apart
from effectively resolving most of her border issues, mostly from a position of strength.
11.
Internal Fault Lines & SWOT Analysis. This section gives a brief insight into
various challenges, that China faces not only internally but from the new dynamic
International Arena. In terms of strength, China is well poised to exercise direct
influence on the China Sea and the ASEAN states, permanent membership of UN.
Geo-spatial landmass, sustained economic growth and modernized defence forces are
other strengths of China. Weakness include massive energy requirements, economic
disparity, an ageing workforce and complex political structure. Together its strengths
and weaknesses pose associated threats and opportunities for China.
12.
Implications for India. Indians, after the debacle of 1962, view Chinas rise with
trepidation. SinoIndian relations are, on one hand captive to the deep impact of the
1962 debacle over Indian psyche. On the other hand, they are also influenced by the
Chinese aspirations for a perceived rightful place in the world order. Chinas military
modernisation programme, her growing presence in the Indian Ocean, the unresolved
boundary and claims over Indian territory, the strengthening Sino-Pak nexus and claims
and counterclaims of Chinese troops in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir are some of the
issues of concern for India. Likewise, China too is vary of the presence of the Dalai
Lama and the large Tibetan community in India, Indian Naval forays into the South
China Sea and the new strategic linkages between New Delhi and Washington DC and
New Delhi and Tokyo. Today, both India and China jostling for the same strategic space
and resources. An endeavor to analyse these factors has been made to assess their
impact.

4
13.
The Way Ahead. The big question is :-What is the way ahead for India in view
of the strategic changes in Asia where China sits atop the power pyramid with its
physical size, military capability and economic clout that combines to assert regional
dominance. India has to adopt a balanced strategy at the pol, diplomatic, eco and mil
levels. All efforts must be concentrated and synergised towards attaining a strat
engagement of China in order to tame the red dragon while retaining our National
Interests as supreme. India should build a long term political strategic vision to include
a National resolve towards engaging China at International fora. An extensive China
specific policy should be evolved and continuosly reviewed. In dealing with them one
thing, we have to bear in mind is that the intelligently executed diplomatic manoeuvres
are critical in addressing the issues arising out of a belligerent China. The China-India
economic relationship in the 21st century would be the most vibrant, the relationship
with the biggest potential.
14.
A more efficient framework to settle the Border dispute with stringent timelines
would open up further avenues of Sino Indian cooperation through peaceful means in a
fair, reasonable, mutually acceptable and proactive manner. . With a clearly laid out and
pronounced China centric policy, we must build up our self-reliance and have the
requisite military capability. There has to be a strong resolve and concerted effort to
bring up the critical infrastructure, credible Missile Defence System, Space and Cyber
Warfare capabilities. To protect the SLOCs as well to pose a credible threat to the
mighty ambitions of China, India assert more on its Blue Water Navy and Air.
India and China command special attention, not just in Asia, but also
in the global economy. The worlds two most populous countries. They
have sustained worlds highest annual GDP growth rates over the past
decade. The two countries arguably have the greatest influence and
leverage among the 10 emerging-market economies.
Conclusion
15.
Chinas very potent nuclear and missile capabilities coupled with its conventional
capabilities, which it has developed are a major cause of concern for the nations of
South Asia, particularly India. Chinas strategic alliances with Pakistan and Myanmar,
Missile/ nuclear prolieration and its attempts to have a foothold in Sri Lanka leading to a
strategic encirclement of India would have serious implications for India. The primary
goal presently maybe to maintain a high rate of economic growth, but coupled with it
would also be the quest for ways and means of limiting the powers of its regional rivals,
particularly India, so as to become a preponderant power in Asia initially, and a global
power eventually. The next decade is crucial for India. Indias policy makers must
adequately respond to the emerging security equations in the region. India, in the
coming years will have to watch China, not only across the Himalayas, but also in the
larger Asian context and Indian Ocean in particular, where the interests of the two
countries have clashed and are likely to clash in the near future. Indias strategic focus
must, therefore, remain on the challenge posed by the likely emergence of a powerful
and aggressive China in the 21st century.