Southwestern University Case

Discussion Questions
Q1) Develop a network drawing for Hill Construction and determine the critical path. How long is the project
expected to take?
Expected time t = (a + 4m + b) /6
a: optimistic
m: likely
b: pessimistic
START
A -30
C-65

B-60
E-30

D-55

F 0.1
G-30

H-20

J-10

I-30

K-0.1
L-30
FINISH

Critical Path = A-30 + C-65 + D-55 + G-30 + H-20 + I-30 + L-30

Critical Path = 260 days

Q2) What is the probability of finishing in 270 days?

Project variance is summing up the variances of the critical path.
V = [(b-a) / 6]

Variances
A = 11.11

B = 69.44

D= 136.11

G = 2.78

H= 11.11

I = 44.44

L=44.44

Project Variance = 319 .43

Project Standard Deviation = 319.43 = 17.87
Probability of project completion earlier than 270 days is;
Z= (due date expected date) / project standard deviation
Z = (270 260) / 17.87 = 0, 5596 0.56
* Appendix I for 0.56 is 0.71226 71%
Probability of finishing in 270 days is 71%
Q3) If it is necessary to crash 250 or 240 days, how would you Hill do so, and at what costs? As I note that in
the case, assume that optimistic time estimates can be used a crash times.
Crash Preference

Task

Crash Cost $ / day

Crash Time Optimistic

Crash Time Likely

1,500

20

30

4,000

50

65

1,900

30

55

2,500

25

30

2,000

10

20

2,000

20

30

4,500

20

30

Crash to 250 days

Reducing 10 days would cost:
10 x $1,500 = $15,000 (crash down Task A)
Crash to 240 days
Reducing 20 days would cost:
10 x $1,900 = $ 19,000 (crash down Task D) + 10 x $1,500 = $15,000 (crash down Task A) =
$34,000 TOTAL