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Results of the Analysis of the Forecast Periods for Southeast
Europe Coordination Initiative Study on Transmission Planning
and Uncertainties (2015-2020)
Robert F. Ichord, Jr., Ph.D.
Chief, Energy and Infrastructure
Jamshid Heidarian, Ph.D.
Senior Energy Advisor
US Agency for International Development
Europe and Eurasia Bureau
on behalf of SECI-TPWG
Overview
HISTORY
Southeast Europe Cooperation Initiative 1998
Regional Transmission System Planning Project 2001
Models for 2005, 2010, 2015 AND 2020: PSS/E Format, Steady
State, Dynamic, Short Circuit (Winter Peak, Summer Off-Peak)
Studies
Regional Electricity Interconnection Study 2002
Generation Investment Study (GIS): PSS/E Analysis and
Results 2004
Transmission Network Investment Criteria 2007
Evaluation Of Investments In Transmission Network to
Sustain Generation and Market Development In SEE 2007
AVAILABLE DATA
SEPARATED COMPANIES
12
No of answers
10
8
6
4
2
0
Un
kn
ow
Un
np
ow
er
pl a
n ts
siz
e
kn
Lo
ow
an
np
loc
ro
du
a ti
on
c ti
on
co
s
ts/
ad
bi d
Fu
gro
sa
wt
nd
hr
at
ge
ne
r ..
tu r
Ot
em
ar
ke
t
tra
ns
ac
tio
ns
he
r(
W
Ot
PP
s)
he
r(
e le
c tr
i ci
ty
pr
i ce
10
11
Base
case
X
X
TPP
Kosovo
AL - IT
ME - IT
HR - IT
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
NPP
Krsko 2
X
X
X
HPP
Kozjak
X
X
WPP
X
X
RO - TR AL BG BA HR MK ME RO RS
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
12
SI
X
X
TR UNMIK
X
X
X
X
X
Base
case
TPP
Kosovo
WPP
AL - IT
ME - IT
HR - IT
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
NPP
Krsko 2
X
X
HPP
Kozjak
X
RO - TR AL BG BA HR MK ME RO RS
SI
TR UNMIK
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
13
14
Conclusions
20000
18000
16000
STRONG INTERCONNECTIONS
EVEN TODAY
CONGESTION MANAGEMENT
COORDINATED AUCTIONING
HIGHER NTC VALUES
INTERNAL NETWORK
REINFORCEMENTS
STRONGER REGULATORY
AGENCIES
14000
MVA or MW
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
re
ec
e
G
un
ga
r
H
Bo
sn
ia
an
d
Al
ba
ni
H
a
er
ze
go
vi
na
Bu
lg
ar
ia
C
ro
at
ia
FY
R
O
M
M
on
te
ne
gr
o
R
om
an
Se
ia
rb
ia
+U
N
M
IK
Sl
ov
en
ia
Au
st
ria
INDEPENDENT TSOs
COORDINATION IN PLANNING
HARMONIZATION OF PLANNING
STANDARDS
15
16
RUS
SVK
HUN
SCG
MKD
GRE
UKR
ROM
BUL
MLD
Modeled
Black Sea
TUR
GEO
ARM AZB
Equivalented
17
19