Pakistan Weekly Update

StockSmart

AKD Equity Research / Pakistan

Weekly Review

Index & Volume Chart

Universe Gainers & Losers

30.42

BYCO

27.25

BOP

27.04

LPCL

18.72

150,000
100,000
50,000

(Index)

(mn)
700
600

30,000

ReadyVolume(LHS)

28,500

Source: KSE & AKD Research

27,000

500

25,500

400

24,000

300

22,500

200

21,000

May-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Oct-13

Dec-13

Aug-13

18,000
Jul-13

19,500

0
May-13

100

Volume (LHS)

12May

KSE100Index(RHS)

10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%

HUBC

JSCL

200,000

12.0%

EFERT

114.20

16May

15May

KEL

14May

Volum e (m n)

13May

Sym bol

29,000
28,528 28,843 28,883 28,900
28,800
28,411
28,700
28,600
28,500
28,344
28,400
28,300
28,200
28,100
28,000

PTC

(Index)

(Shrs'000)
250,000

Top-5 Volum e Leaders

OGDC

Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)

This week
132.93
Last week
140.66
Change
-5.49%

UBL

US$bn
70.16
69.11
1.53%

KEL

PkRbn
6,912.57
6,796.63
1.71%

PSMC

Indices
KMI-30
Allshare
This week 45,920.10 21,548.40
Last week 45,487.58 21,237.96
Change
0.95%
1.46%

HMB

Indices
KSE-100
KSE-30
This week 28,883.33 19,882.75
Last week 28,494.54 19,872.25
Change
1.36%
0.05%

The benchmarkKSE100 Index gained 1.4%WoW during the week thatendedtoday to close at
28,883pts with average daily traded volumes remaining under pressure as they came o by
5.49%WoW to 132.9mn shares. The market took cue from MSCIs Semiannual review where
reclassifica onofQatarandUAEtoEMledtoanincreaseofPakistansweightto7.4%inthefirst
phaseandislikelytoincreaseto8.7%inthesecondphase.Thisincludedanaddi onof4scrips
toanddele onof1scripfromMSCIFMIndexwhile9scripsmadeittotheMSCISmallCapIndex
and3wererelegated.Keynewsflowincluded:1)PakistansFxreservesclosingthegapwiththe
US$13bnmarktoUS$12.88bn(importcoverof3.5moths),2)ocialstatementsayingthatthe
US will release US$380mn tranche in lieu of the Coali on Support Fund (CSF), 3) reported in
creaseinpharmaceu calpricesof15%to20%and4)rejec onbytheECCofproposedincrease
in OMCs and dealer margins. Strong performance in the tex le sector on market rumors sug
ges ngpossiblerelieffortex lesonimportofmachinery.Majorgainersduringtheweekunder
reviewincluded:HCAR(+10.5%WoWonstrongannualresult),AGTL(+7.8%WoWduetorobust
MoMgrowthintractorsales),HMB(+7.0%WoWduetoaddi onintheMSCIFMIndex)andKEL
(+6.5%WoWonaddi onintheMSCIFMIndex)whileEFERT(2.7%WoW),HUBC(2.5%WoW,on
relega onfromtheMSCIFMIndex)andPTC(2.3%WoW)remainedlaggards.Thetopfivevol
ume leaders during the week included KEL (114.20mn shares), JSCL (30.42mn shares), BYCO
(27.25mnshares),BOP(27.04mnshares)andLPCL(18.72mnshares).

AGTL

research@akdsecurities.net
009221 111 253 111

HCAR

AKD Research

Mkt Cap.
This week
Last week
Change

16 May 2014

Outlook
At the commencement of the coming week Investor sen ment is likely to be hinged upon the
outcomeoflatestMPSwhichisscheduledtotakeplaceonMay1714.Inthisregard,weexpect
the SBP to slash the discount rate by 50bps and believe such move will bring in fresh investor
interestinrela velyhighleveragesectorslikecementsandtex les.Withthela erfurthersup
portedbyanypossiblereduc onintheexportrefinanceschemerates.

KSE-100 Index

Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies

Important disclosures covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors
should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

AKD SECURITIES
Member: Karachi Stock Exchange

Find AKD research on Bloomberg

(AKDS<GO>), firstcall.com
and Reuters Knowledge

Copyright2014 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended
for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be
contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within
such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation
or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD
Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

www.akdsecurities.net

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

16 May 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

May 09, 2014
29,080

DGKC:Muchdependsonexpansionplans,(AKDDaily,May16,2014)

29,030

DGKCrecentlyannounceditspublicinten ontoacquirea75.8%stakeinLPCL.While
wehighlightasignificanteasingofpricewarconcernsintheeventofLPCLsacquisi on
byDGKC,noiseregardingapricewarwillnotsubsidecompletely.Muchwilldependon
thefuturestepstobetakenbyBWCL,KOHCandVisionHoldingsLtd.(PIOCsponsors),
allhavingindicatedadesiretoexpandcapacitybymakingabidforLPCL.Thatsaid,we
believepricewarriskintheeventofnewcapaci esislikelytobemi gatedbystrong
growthindomes cdemand.WebelieveDGKCiscurrentlytradingatdepressedvalua
onsbothduetoapoten alrightsissueaswellaspricewarconcerns.However,bar
ringanyrightsissueweretainourlikingforDGKC,rollingforwardourTPtoJun15at
PkR118.2/share.

28,980
28,930
28,880

16:21

15:37

14:53

14:09

13:26

12:44

12:01

11:17

9:50

10:34

9:06

28,830

May 08, 2014

29,010
28,960
28,910

PakistanMarket:BigwinnerintheMSCIReview,(AKDDaily,May15,2014)

28,860
28,810
28,760
28,710
28,660
28,610

15:19

14:28

13:38

12:47

11:57

11:06

9:24

28,510

10:15

28,560

May 07, 2014

28,690
28,640
28,590
28,540
28,490
28,440

15:21

14:41

14:01

13:22

12:43

12:03

11:24

10:44

9:24

10:04

28,390

May 06, 2014

ThemuchawaitedMSCISemiAnnualReviewtookplaceyesterdaywhereweflagPaki
stanasabigwinnerwith4companiesaddedoutof13addi onstoMSCIFMIndex(of
which2companieswereamongstthelargestonthebasisofmarketcap).Furthermore,
total 30 dele ons from MSCI FM Index took place in the aforemen oned review.
Amongst the outgoing companies, 23 were due to up grada on of MSCI Qatar and
MSCIUAE.Asaresult,eec veMay30'14,Pakistan'sweightinthefron erbasketis
es matedtoincreaseto8.71%,upfrom4.16%previously,theweightincreasea ribut
abletotheupgradeofQatarandUAEtotheEmergingMarketsspacetogetherwitha
cumula ve weight cap onthe two remaining FM heavyweights (Kuwait & Nigeria). In
addi ontothis,27companieshavebeenaddedtoMSCIFMSmallCapIndexwhile39
sawrelega on,outofwhich18belongedtoQatarandUAEwhichasmen onedabove,
wereupgraded.Amongst27addi ons,onceagainPakistanremainedtheclearcutwin
nerwith9companiesfromthecountrymakingittotheaforemen onedsmallcapin
dex.Since2013,Pakistanhaspunchedaboveitsweightina rac nganes mated~11%
ofnetforeigninflowsintofron ermarketsandwithitsprominencelikelytoincrease
duetoahigherweightage,weremainbullishonprospectsforfurtherforeigninflows
andvalua onrera ngofthemarket.WeseetheKSE100Indexdelivering20%+gains
across FY15 as a forward P/E of7.5x fills up. Ourpreferred plays include UBL,OGDC,
PTC,LUCKandENGRO.

28,490

PakistanMarket:WhatisCorporatePakistanthinking?(AKDDaily,May14,2014)
28,440

28,390

28,340

15:26

14:41

13:56

13:11

12:27

11:42

10:57

9:27

10:12

28,290

May 05, 2014

28,920
28,860
28,800
28,740
28,680

WewereontheroadlastweektotouchbasewithsomeofPakistanstopcorporatesin
Karachi,LahoreandIslamabad.Whilesustainedreformimplementa onandlaw&or
derwerecitedasrisks,ingeneralthemoodisoneofcau ousop mismandthereisan
underlyingsensethatthenextfewyearswillseeaccelera oninGDPgrowthpar cular
ly if interest ratescomeo. Higherexpecteddomes cdemand is thebroader theme
e.g. Banks see doubledigit loan growth from 2015 onwards while Cements see the
need for capacity expansions. At the same me, consumeroriented plays such as
EFOODs and PTC sounded increasingly bullish on future prospects. That said, there is
lessclarityintheenergyspaceowingtofreshbuildupincirculardebt.Insum,ourcor
porateroundupfirmsourviewthatcyclicalshavethepoten altooutperformoverthe
mediumtermwhileaFY15FP/Eof7.5xindicatesvalua onshavenotyetoutreached
fundamentals.Atcurrentlevels,welikeUBL,OGDC,PTC,ENGROandLUCK.
MCB:Moreaggressivebent,(AKDDaily,May13,2014)

28,620
28,560
15:30

14:38

13:47

12:56

12:05

11:14

9:30

10:22

28,500

FactoringinhigherinvestmentsinPIBsandamoreaggressivestanceoncapitaldeploy
ment(higherpayoutsand/orIslamicbankingdrive)togetherwithrolloverofourfinan
cialmodelleadstoarevisedtargetpriceofPkR300/shareforMCB.A erasubdued7%

Source:KSE&AKDResearch

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

16 May 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

This Weeks Daily Reports

NPAT CAGR across CY08CY13, we now see MCB pos ng 13%YoY NPAT growth in
CY14F, leading to a 12% NPAT CAGR over the next 5yrs. In this regard, while we see
NIMsaveraginginthe5.6%5.8%range,earningsshouldbedrivenbystrongBSgrowth,
con nuingprovisioningreversalsandanup ckinfeeincome.Basecasees matesmay
comeinforupwardrevisionprovidedMCBsaggressiveplansmaterialize(Islamicbank
ing + overseas expansion).MCBhas gained 11%CYTD to trade at a CY15F P/Bof 2.2x
andP/Eof11.7xwhereourrevisedtargetpriceofPkR300/shareoersa1yrtotalre
turnof10.5%.Accumulate!
INDU:Premiumvalua onsjus fied,(AKDDaily,May12,2014)
INDU's margins rose by 156bps YoY/139bps QoQ to 8.77% in 3QFY14, enabling the
company to book NPAT of PkR969mn (EPS: PkR12.32) in the quarter, up by 29%
YoY/105%QoQ.Incorpora ngtherecentPkRapprecia onandrevisingourvolumees
mates (launch of new Corolla model expected in FY15), we revise earnings es mates
across our forecast horizon in the range of 0.5%4.0%. Together with rollover onto
Jun'15,thisraisesourtargetpriceforINDUtoPkR500/share.Ourop mis coutlookis
premised on a doubledigitNPAT CAGR across the mediumterm where we note that
INDU'sproductmix(1,300cc+)isrela velyshieldedfromimportedautomobileswhich
tendtobeconcentratedinthe1000ccorlowersegment.Thisshouldfeedintohigher
volumetric sales for INDU in an improvingmacro environment, which should dovetail
withahighmargincycle.INDUtradesataFY15FP/Eof7.9xwhereourrevisedtarget
priceoers18.5%upside(inaddi ontoforwardD/Yof7.1%).Accumulate!

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

16 May 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Regional Valuations (2014)

Major World Indices Performance

EPSGrowth
Pakistan
26%
Indonesia
14%
Malaysia
19%
Philippines
10%
Vitenam
16%
India
15%
China
14%

PE(x)
8.92
11.97
13.56
15.20
16.45
13.27
7.01

Country

BloombergCode

%
Pakistan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Vitenam
India
China

DivdYld
5.24
2.17
3.28
2.30
2.99
1.89
4.01

Pakistan
Srilanka
Thailand
Jakarta
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam
HongKong
Singapore
Brazil
Russia
India
China
S&P
DJIA
NASDAQComposite
UK
German
Qatar
AbuDhabi
Dubai
Kuwait
Oman
SaudiArabia
MSCIEM
MSCIFM

KSE100Index
CSEALLIndex
SETIndex
JCIIndex
FBMKLCIIndex
PCOMPIndex
VNINDEXIndex
HSIIndex
FSSTIIndex
IBXIndex
RTSSTDIndex
SENSEXIndex
SHCOMPIndex
SPXIndex
INDUIndex
CCMPIndex
UKXIndex
DAXIndex
DSMIndex
ADSMIIndex
DFMGIIndex
KWSEIDXIndex
MSM30Index
SASEIDXIndex
MXEFIndex
MXFMIndex

ROE
21.34
18.56
13.43
14.77
16.60
16.38
14.30

Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe

16May14

9May14

28,883
6,315
1,405
5,032
1,883
6,818
529
22,713
3,263
22,194
9,341
24,122
2,027
1,871
16,447
4,069
6,828
9,620
13,105
5,021
5,181
7,404
6,735
9,807
1,029
669

28,495
6,285
1,377
4,898
1,867
6,847
542
21,863
3,252
21,912
9,247
22,994
2,011
1,878
16,583
4,072
6,815
9,581
12,961
5,043
5,302
7,406
6,825
9,787
1,007
668

WoW

CYTD

1.36%
14.34%
0.48%
6.81%
2.02%
8.20%
2.72%
17.72%
0.89%
0.88%
0.43%
15.75%
2.39%
4.93%
3.89%
2.55%
0.32%
3.00%
1.28%
4.22%
1.03%
8.21%
4.90%
13.94%
0.76%
4.23%
0.41%
1.22%
0.82%
0.78%
0.06%
2.57%
0.20%
1.17%
0.40%
0.71%
1.11%
26.25%
0.42%
17.04%
2.28%
53.75%
0.04%
1.93%
1.32%
1.46%
0.21%
14.90%
2.20%
2.63%
0.15%
12.48%
Source: Bloomberg

International Major Currencies

SPOT

16May14

9May14

DollarIndex

80.062

79.903

USD/PkR

98.537

98.571

105.0

USD/JPY

101.600

101.860

103.0

EUR/USD

1.369

101.0

GBP/USD

99.0

AUD/USD
NZD/USD

PkR/US$ Trend
109.0
107.0

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Dec-13

Oct-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

95.0

May-13

97.0

Source: Bloomberg

Chg+/

WoW

CYTD

0.159

0.20%

0.03%

0.034

0.03%

6.45%

0.260

0.26%

3.52%

1.376

0.007

0.49%

0.38%

1.681

1.685

0.004

0.23%

1.54%

0.936

0.936

0.000

0.04%

4.95%

0.863

0.861

0.002

0.19%

5.05%
0.10%

CHF/USD

0.892

0.886

0.006

0.63%

CAD/USD

1.088

1.090

0.002

0.15%

2.44%

USD/KRW

1,024

1,024

0.290

0.03%

2.44%

CNY/USD

6.233

6.228

0.006

2.96%
0.09%
Source: Bloomberg

Commodities

TRJ-CRB Index

SPOT

Units

16May14

9May14

WoW

CYTD

310

TRJCRB

Points

306.92

304.57

0.77%

9.55%

305

Nymex(WTI)

US$/bbl.

101.84

99.99

1.85%

3.47%

ICEBrent

US$/bbl.

110.06

107.67

2.22%

0.69%

N.GasHenryHub

US$/Mmbtu

4.3523

4.5739

4.84%

0.19%

315

300
295
290
285

Cotton

USd/Pound

92.7

94.3

1.70%

3.34%

280

Gold

US$/Tr.Oz

1289.42

1288.79

0.05%

6.95%

275

Sliver

US$/Tr.Oz

19.308

19.16

0.77%

0.82%

Copper

US$/MT

6941

6795.5

2.14%

5.89%

Platinum

US$/Oz

1462.75

1429.75

2.31%

6.81%

Coal

US$/MT

72.85

72.85

0.00%

13.89%

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

Dec-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

270

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

16 May 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Chart Bank
Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential

Advance to Decline Ratio

(%)
41.0

1.60
1.50

36.0
31.0

1.40

26.0

1.30

21.0

1.20

16.0

1.10

6.0

1.00

1.0

0.90

FIPI Flows for the week

May14

Mar14

Feb14

Dec13

Oct13

Sep13

Jul13

Apr13
(US$mn)

M.Funds,
Others,1.30
NBFC,4.70 (11.11)

2.00

8,923

9,000

0.80

LIPI Flows for the week

(US$'000)
10,000

May14

Sep13

Mar13

Jul12

Dec11

Jun11

Oct10

Apr10

Aug09

Jan09

Jul08

(4.0)

May13

11.0

8,000

7,340

(2.00)

7,000
6,000

(4.00)

5,000

(6.00)

4,000

3,192

3,000

Bank/DFI,
(3.76)
Co.,(6.60)

(8.00)
(10.00)

2,000

856

1,000

(12.00)

265

(14.00)

12May

13May

14May

15May

Ind.,0.10

16May

AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index

KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM

60%

45%

50%

35%

40%

25%

30%

15%

20%

5%

10%

KSE100
MSCIEM
MSCIFM

5%

May14

Mar14

Jan14

Dec13

Oct13

Aug13

Jul13

May14

Mar14

AKDUniverse

15%

May13

KSEAllShareIndex

Dec13

Oct13

Jul13

May13

0%

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

16 May 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Valuations

16May14
EPS(PkR)
EPSchg(%)
EPSchg(%)ExFinancials
BookValueperShare(PkR)
Payout(%)
Valuations
PricetoEarnings(x)
PricetoBook(x)
PER(x)ExFinancials
P/BVS(x)ExFinancials
PricetoCF(x)
EarningsYield(%)
DividendYield(%)
EV/EBITDA(x)
Profitability
ReturnonEquity(%)
ReturnonAssets(%)
ChginSales(%)
GrossMargin(%)
OperatingMargin(%)
NetMargin(%)

2011A
4.35
28.46
31.79
21.46
54.07

2012A
4.93
13.37
16.01
24.77
54.01

2013A/E
5.45
10.55
18.40
28.51
51.50

2014F
6.84
25.68
28.44
32.07
46.79

2015F
7.87
14.98
15.88
35.86
46.87

14.05
2.85
15.01
3.33
21.21
7.12
3.85
8.52

12.39
2.47
12.94
2.89
29.94
8.07
4.36
7.26

11.21
2.14
10.93
2.45
9.07
8.92
4.59
6.37

8.92
1.90
8.51
2.13
20.20
11.21
5.24
5.61

7.76
1.70
7.34
1.88
11.68
12.89
6.04
4.97

20.25
3.61
17.74
22.24
13.37
10.45

19.89
3.50
17.92
21.15
12.30
10.05

19.10
3.72
6.23
22.43
13.09
10.46

21.34
4.15
11.66
22.26
13.30
11.77

21.95
4.30
10.76
22.80
14.17
12.22

Source: AKD Research

Market PER Chart 2014F

(x)
10

May-14

Feb-13

Oct-11

Jul-10

Apr-09

Jan-08

Oct-06

Jul-05

Source: AKD Research

Market P/BVS Chart 2014F

(x)
2.0
1.5
1.0

May14

Jan13

Oct11

Jul10

Apr09

Jan08

Oct06

Jul05

0.5

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

16 May 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Active Coverage Clusters Valuations

Stocks

Symbol

AutomobileandParts
IndusMotors
PakSuzukiMotors
Construc onandMaterials
DGKhanCement
Chemicals
EngroPolymerChemicals
ICIPakistanLimited
Lo eChemicalPakistanLtd.
EngroCorpora on
EngroFer lizersLimited
DawoodHerculesLimited
FaujiFert.BinQasimLtd.
FaujiFer lizerCompany
Fa maFer lizer
FoodProducers
EngroFoodsLimited
Oil&Gas
Oil&GasDevelopmentCo.
PakOilfields
PakistanStateOil
Electricity
HubPowerCo.
KElectricLimited
KotAdduPowerCompany
FixedLineTelecommunica on
PakistanTelecommunica on
PersonalGoods
NishatMills
Banks
AlliedBankLimited
BankAlFalah
HabibBankLimited
MCBBankLimited
Na onalBankofPakistan
UnitedBankLtd

INDU
PSMC

DGKC

EPCL
ICI
LOTCHEM
ENGRO
EFERT
DAWH
FFBL
FFC
FATIMA

EFOODS

OGDC
POL
PSO

HUBC
KEL
KAPCO

PTC

NML

ABL
BAFL
HBL
MCB
NBP
UBL

Price

TP

(PkR)

(PkR)

Stance

EPS

(PkR)
13A/E 14F

PE(x)

15F 13A/E

14F

PB

DY(%)
(x)
15F13A/E 14F 15F13A/E 14F 15F

423.0 500.1 Accumulate 42.7 44.0 53.39.99.6 7.91.9 1.7 1.5 5.95.9 5.7
200.1 UR
UR
22.5 UR UR8.9 UR UR0.9 UR UR 2.0 UR UR

85.9 118.2
Buy
12.6 12.6 13.66.86.8 6.30.8 0.7 0.7 3.53.8 4.1

14.9 16.5Accumulate 1.11.11.7 14.0 13.0 8.71.4 1.3 1.1 0.0
378.2 310.5 Reduce 7.4 22.2 32.5 50.8 17.0 11.63.3 2.8 2.3 1.8 2.6
7.0 8.5
Buy
(0.3) 0.61.0 n.m 11.9 6.90.9 0.8 0.7 3.6 7.1
197.9 196.2 Neutral 18.7 22.9 34.8 10.68.7 5.71.4 1.2 1.1 0.0
61.7 55.5Accumulate 4.25.69.6 14.6 10.9 6.43.7 2.8 2.8 0.0
78.2 71.8 Reduce 9.2 13.1 18.38.56.0 4.3 n.a n.a n.a 1.30.0
39.1 49.3
Buy
6.06.66.76.55.9 5.82.3 2.3 2.2 12.8 16.016.6
110.6 138.6
Buy
15.8 16.4 16.87.06.7 6.65.9 5.7 5.6 13.9 14.715.1
31.7 35.1Accumulate 4.15.05.87.86.3 5.52.0 1.7 1.4 7.96.3 6.3

111.5 UR
UR
0.3 UR UR 405.2 UR UR7.5 UR UR UR UR

248.8 302.1
Buy
21.1 28.9 32.3 11.88.6 7.73.3 2.7 2.2 3.34.6 5.2
534.9 612.6 Accumulate 45.8 59.1 66.9 11.79.0 8.03.6 3.3 2.9 8.48.6 9.3
393.2 UR
UR
50.8 UR UR7.7 UR UR1.6 UR UR 1.3 UR UR

57.6 72.2
Buy
8.87.0 11.86.58.2 4.92.0 2.2 2.1 13.9 15.614.8
7.3 12.1
Buy
0.20.30.4 29.8 23.3 17.93.7 3.2 2.7 0.0
60.0 64.0Accumulate 8.48.0 10.07.27.5 6.02.2 2.1 2.1 12.5 12.915.8

27.5 29.7Accumulate 3.14.25.08.96.5 5.41.1 1.1 1.0 12.8 10.913.7

113.8 137.5
Buy
16.6 18.7 22.16.86.1 5.10.7 0.6 0.6 3.54.2 5.9

127.5 100.0
Sell
14.2 11.7 13.09.0 10.9 9.82.0 1.8 1.6 4.14.3 5.2
27.4 32.0* Accumulate 3.53.84.67.97.2 6.01.2 1.1 1.0 7.35.5 6.4
184.0 UR
UR
17.1 UR UR 10.7 UR UR1.7 UR UR 4.3 UR UR
286.6 300.0 Neutral 19.7 22.3 24.4 14.6 12.9 11.72.8 2.4 2.2 4.44.5 5.1
59.6 65.0Accumulate 2.56.88.4 24.08.8 7.10.8 0.8 0.7 3.48.410.1
169.0 225.0
Buy
15.8 18.8 20.9 10.79.0 8.11.9 1.7 1.6 5.95.3 5.6

*TPforBAFLrisestoPkR33.8/shareuponsuccessfulWaridstakesale

#####

Source: AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

16 May 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

AKD Universe Coverage Clusters Performance

Stocks

Sym bol

Price
16-May-14

1M

CYTD

1 Year
High

1 Year
Low

28883.33

-2.0

9.4

24.0

41.5

14.3

29458.15

20416.60

AGTL
MTL

215.65
476.88

5.7
2.4

-13.3
-0.3

6.8
-0.2

6.3
4.9

1.5
-1.2

325.48
519.58

197.00
433.73

INDU
PSMC

423.00
200.11

-11.9
-10.1

11.3
25.5

31.4
60.1

33.0
32.9

27.0
30.0

499.50
227.75

303.88
121.37

DGKC
LUCK

85.94
352.26

-7.1
-4.6

-5.2
16.2

21.3
35.5

16.3
97.1

0.2
17.5

96.43
369.08

68.29
177.49

EPCL
ICI
LOTCHEM
DAWH
EFERT
ENGRO
FATIMA
FFBL
FFC

14.93
378.22
7.01
78.19
61.68
197.88
31.68
39.07
110.61

-5.5
-2.5
-8.7
-13.6
11.4
9.4
9.8
-8.1
-1.8

-5.0
31.3
0.7
-7.9
n.a
22.3
13.8
-5.6
-2.8

22.6
134.9
5.7
51.5
n.a
28.3
28.1
-5.9
5.5

29.5
131.8
-10.2
30.1
n.a
65.4
32.0
5.4
2.2

11.3
49.5
-4.5
39.3
n.a
50.7
23.2
2.2
7.0

16.78
395.14
8.89
94.59
66.55
201.27
32.33
45.42
119.52

11.53
159.97
6.46
46.03
29.66
117.11
21.29
36.90
101.37

EFOODS

111.50

8.3

15.5

1.8

-8.7

33.9

162.22

80.37

47.62

13.1

27.2

65.5

95.0

86.0

74.12

23.57

OGDC
POL
PSO

248.76
534.90
393.16

-7.2
5.6
12.9

-11.4
8.0
21.1

-1.1
8.2
28.2

26.1
19.2
90.8

-3.7
14.1
40.4

287.84
539.63
405.69

197.32
428.73
184.67

HUBC
KEL
KAPCO

57.61
7.26
59.99

-7.9
7.1
-5.1

-5.6
16.3
-2.4

-21.1
37.8
-9.5

10.1
19.2
19.6

-6.8
28.5
-1.1

73.42
7.98
68.34

50.13
4.99
49.53

PTC

27.45

-5.2

-9.4

3.2

34.0

2.0

31.70

17.46

NCL
NML

43.47
113.81

-31.4
-15.2

-20.2
-3.2

-31.7
16.2

-0.9
47.9

-16.1
25.3

68.82
140.79

40.51
76.94

ABL
AKBL
BAFL
HBL
HMB
MCB
MEBL
NBP
UBL

127.50
18.71
27.37
183.95
32.68
286.55
39.17
59.57
168.96

2.4
-1.3
-4.2
-4.2
3.7
2.0
-4.2
-5.6
-6.7

55.8
23.6
-2.1
24.1
31.8
13.4
1.6
3.2
26.1

64.2
44.9
9.1
27.1
40.6
8.1
1.1
8.5
30.9

108.4
27.7
62.4
98.8
97.1
14.3
47.8
40.4
61.3

55.8
33.6
1.2
21.4
30.4
12.1
-0.5
2.6
27.5

128.34
20.29
29.07
192.11
32.68
288.06
41.24
63.08
187.07

60.39
10.76
16.85
91.36
16.49
220.54
26.50
40.65
100.18

KSE-100 Index

Absolute Perform ance (%)

3M
6M
12M

Industrial Engineering
Al-Ghazi Tractor
Millat Tractors
Autom obile and Parts
Indus Motors
Pak Suzuki Motors

Construction and Materials

DG Khan Cement
Lucky Cement
Chem icals
Engro Polymer Chemicals
ICI Pakistan Limited
Lotte Pakistan PTA Limited
Daw ood Hercules
Engro Fertilizers Ltd.
Engro Chemical
Fatima Fertilizer
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd.
Fauji Fertilizer Company
Food Producers
Engro Foods Limited
Non Life Insurance
Adamjee Insurance

AICL

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Development Co.
Pak Oilfields
Pakistan State Oil
Electricity
Hub Pow er Co.
K-Electric Limited
Kot Addu Pow er Company

Fixed Line Telecom m unication

Pakistan Telecommunication
Personal Goods
Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd.
Nishat Mills
Banks
Allied Bank Limited
Askari Bank Limited
Bank AlFalah
Habib Bank Limited
Habib Metropolitan Bank
MCB Bank Limited
Meezan Bank Limited
National Bank of Pakistan
United Bank Ltd

Source: KSE & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

16 May 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Economic Snapshot
End Month Data

Units

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

T-bill
3M

9.00

9.15

9.47

9.63

9.93

9.92

9.91

9.94

9.97

6M

9.20

9.35

9.68

9.88

10.02

9.98

9.95

9.93

9.97

12M

9.28

9.41

9.76

9.91

10.05

9.99

9.99

9.95

9.98

PIB 10Y

11.97

12.28

12.83

12.93

12.90

12.59

12.80

12.67

12.80

KIBOR 6M

9.15

9.29

9.55

9.52

10.13

10.14

10.15

10.11

10.18

Discount rate

9.00

9.50

9.50

10.00

10.00

10.00

10.00

10.00

10.00

Headline inflation

8.55

7.40

9.10

10.90

9.18

7.90

7.90

8.50

9.20

Core inflation

8.50

8.70

8.40

8.50

8.20

8.00

7.80

7.60

8.50

Food inflation

10.30

7.90

9.80

13.00

9.30

7.20

7.60

9.30

9.90

Export (PBS)

US$ (mn)

1,996

2,622

1,864

1,804

2,275

2,061

2,167

2,263

1,915

Import (PBS)

US$ (mn)

3,572

3,791

3,281

3,651

3,561

4,137

3,600

3,690

4,067

Trade Deficit (PBS)

US$ (mn)

(1,576)

(1,169)

(1,417)

(1,847)

(1,286)

(2,076)

(1,433)

(1,427)

(2,152)

Home Remittances

US$ (mn)

1,233

1,283

1,348

1,131

1,385

1,246

1,210

1,337

1,216

Current Account

US$ (mn)

(575)

(574)

(166)

(572)

285

(464)

164

(156)

(416)

Deposits

PkR (bn)

7,174

7,125

7,133

7,309

7,529

7,566

7,599

7,571

7,586

Advances

PkR (bn)

3,817

3,831

3,921

4,008

4,071

4,127

4,110

4,100

4,088

Investments

PkR (bn)

3,708

3,873

3,776

4,035

4,070

4,217

4,443

4,503

4,467

Weighted Avg. lending rate

11.11

11.10

11.10

11.13

11.07

11.17

11.19

n.a

n.a

Weighted Avg. deposit rate

4.83

4.79

4.90

4.89

5.05

5.19

5.14

n.a

n.a

Spread rate

6.28

6.31

6.20

6.24

6.02

5.97

6.05

n.a

n.a

Inflation

External Indicators

Banking Sector

Public Finance
Tax collection

PkR (mn)

147,221

203,596

153,329

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Direct taxes

PkR (mn)

44,574

86,436

50,466

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Indirect Taxes

PkR (mn)

102,647

117,160

102,863

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

n.a

Reserves (LHS)

US$ (mn)

9,998

9,995

9,525

8,247

8,314

7,988

8,744

10,074

11,741

USDPkR - Interbank

PkR/USD

104.51

105.24

106.89

107.64

106.93

105.49

105.12

99.97

98.30

Currency

Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research

AKD Securities Limited

StockSmart

16 May 2014

Pakistan Weekly Update

Analyst Certification
We, the AKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly, related
to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding of the
specific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.

AKD Research Team

Analyst

Tel no.

E-mail

Coverage

Naveed Vakil
Raza Jafri, CFA
Anum Dhedhi
Asad I. Siddiqui
Bilal Alvi
Qasim Anwar
Hassan Quadri
Azher Ali Quli
Nasir Khan
Tariq Mehmood

+92 111 253 111 (692)

+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (637)
+92 111 253 111 (693)
+92 111 253 111 (647)
+92 111 253 111 (680)
+92 111 253 111 (639)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (646)
+92 111 253 111 (643)

naveed.vakil@akdsecurities.net
raza.jafri@akdsecurities.net
anum.dhedhi@akdsecurities.net
asad.siddiqui@akdsecurities.net
bilal.alvi@akdsecurities.net
qasim.anwar@akdsecurities.net
hassan.quadri@akdsecurities.net
azher.quli@akdsecurities.net
nasir.khan@akdsecurities.net
tariq.mehmood@akdsecurities.net

Director - Research & Business Development

Pakistan Economy & Commercial Banks
Pakistan Economy
E&Ps & OMCs
Textiles, Cements & Chemical
Technical Analysis
Research Production / Autos
Research Production
Research Production
Library Operations

DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS

This publication/communication or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of AKD Securities
Limited. AKD Securities Limited has produced this report for private circulation to professional and institutional clients only. The information,
opinions and estimates herein are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where doing so
would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities Limited to any additional registration or licensing requirement
within such jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable and complied by
our research department in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and we make no representation or warranty as to
its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Any opinions or estimates herein reflect the judgment of AKD Securities Limited at the date of this
publication/ communication and are subject to change at any time without notice.
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intended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual recipients. Before acting on any information in this publication/communication, you
should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice. Neither AKD Securities
Limited nor any of its affiliates or any other person connected with the company accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential
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including but not limited to, the participation or investment in commercial banking transaction (including loans) with some or all of the issuers
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Any recipient, other than a U.S. recipient that wishes further information should contact the company.
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10