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    Dr. Jörn Dosch Chair of International Politics, University of Rostock, Germany örn Dosch, Ph.D. is an experienced lecturer and researcher in international relations, political science, Southeast Asian Studies and Asia-Pacific Studies. He has held senior management positions at the University of Leeds and Monash University, including deputy deputy president for strategy/research, deputy head of School, head of department, head of Southeast Asia/Asia Pacific section, director of a long-distance learning degree programme (Online MA in Asia Pacific Studies) and undergraduate admissions tutor. Currently, he is chair of International Politics and Development Cooperation at the University of Rostock, Germany. He has a Habilitation (German higher doctorate) in Political Science from the Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz and a Ph.D. (magna cum laude) from the same university. ABSTRACT OF PRESENTATION: With the impending AEC looming large over the horizon, it is time to ask: how far has ASEAN progressed on the long road towards regional economic integration. The AEC is based on four pillars: single market and production base; competitive economic region; equitable economic development, and integration into the global economy. Dr. Dosch provides an independent and unbiased assessment of the achievements, hurdles and challenges in the process of AEC implementation that goes beyond political window dressing. Special emphasis will be given to the role and interest of the Philippines in the process of establishing the AEC as well as the impact of ongoing regional integration on the country’s economy. Can we realistically expect the AEC to be in place by the end of 2015 or are ASEAN’s current efforts in outlining a post-2015 integration agenda indicative of an old problem, namely a tendency of developing new visions instead of implementing what has already been agreed?

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    Dr. Jörn Dosch Chair of International Politics, University of Rostock, Germany örn Dosch, Ph.D. is an experienced lecturer and researcher in international relations, political science, Southeast Asian Studies and Asia-Pacific Studies. He has held senior management positions at the University of Leeds and Monash University, including deputy deputy president for strategy/research, deputy head of School, head of department, head of Southeast Asia/Asia Pacific section, director of a long-distance learning degree programme (Online MA in Asia Pacific Studies) and undergraduate admissions tutor. Currently, he is chair of International Politics and Development Cooperation at the University of Rostock, Germany. He has a Habilitation (German higher doctorate) in Political Science from the Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz and a Ph.D. (magna cum laude) from the same university. ABSTRACT OF PRESENTATION: With the impending AEC looming large over the horizon, it is time to ask: how far has ASEAN progressed on the long road towards regional economic integration. The AEC is based on four pillars: single market and production base; competitive economic region; equitable economic development, and integration into the global economy. Dr. Dosch provides an independent and unbiased assessment of the achievements, hurdles and challenges in the process of AEC implementation that goes beyond political window dressing. Special emphasis will be given to the role and interest of the Philippines in the process of establishing the AEC as well as the impact of ongoing regional integration on the country’s economy. Can we realistically expect the AEC to be in place by the end of 2015 or are ASEAN’s current efforts in outlining a post-2015 integration agenda indicative of an old problem, namely a tendency of developing new visions instead of implementing what has already been agreed?

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    78 views8 pages

    The ASEAN Community: State of Implementation and Implications For The Philippines

    Uploaded by

    Angara Centre for Law and Economic Policy
    Dr. Jörn Dosch Chair of International Politics, University of Rostock, Germany örn Dosch, Ph.D. is an experienced lecturer and researcher in international relations, political science, Southeast Asian Studies and Asia-Pacific Studies. He has held senior management positions at the University of Leeds and Monash University, including deputy deputy president for strategy/research, deputy head of School, head of department, head of Southeast Asia/Asia Pacific section, director of a long-distance learning degree programme (Online MA in Asia Pacific Studies) and undergraduate admissions tutor. Currently, he is chair of International Politics and Development Cooperation at the University of Rostock, Germany. He has a Habilitation (German higher doctorate) in Political Science from the Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz and a Ph.D. (magna cum laude) from the same university. ABSTRACT OF PRESENTATION: With the impending AEC looming large over the horizon, it is time to ask: how far has ASEAN progressed on the long road towards regional economic integration. The AEC is based on four pillars: single market and production base; competitive economic region; equitable economic development, and integration into the global economy. Dr. Dosch provides an independent and unbiased assessment of the achievements, hurdles and challenges in the process of AEC implementation that goes beyond political window dressing. Special emphasis will be given to the role and interest of the Philippines in the process of establishing the AEC as well as the impact of ongoing regional integration on the country’s economy. Can we realistically expect the AEC to be in place by the end of 2015 or are ASEAN’s current efforts in outlining a post-2015 integration agenda indicative of an old problem, namely a tendency of developing new visions instead of implementing what has already been agreed?

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    of 8

    The ASEAN Economic Community:

    State of Implementation and


    Implications for the Philippines
    Jrn Dosch, 5 December 2014

    ...

    AEC
    2015

    ASEAN
    Trade in
    Goods
    Agreement
    (ATIGA)
    2010

    Post 2015
    Vision

    AFTA 1992

    Cartoon: http://www.irrawaddy.org/articlefiles/14463-3_mar_cartoon.gif

    ASEAN
    Industrial
    Projects
    (AIP) 1976

    Preferential
    Trade
    Agreement
    (PTA) 1977

    ASEAN Industrial
    Complementation
    Scheme (AIC) 1981

    The Vision & the Challenge

    Competitive
    economic
    region

    Single market
    and
    production
    base

    The Trouble of
    Terminology

    AEC:
    integrated
    economic
    region

    A single or internal
    market consists of two or
    more nations among
    which goods, capital, and
    currencies can move
    freely across borders
    without tariffs or other
    restrictions.

    Equitable
    economic
    development

    Integration
    into the Global
    Economy

    22.11.2014 2014 UNIVERSITT ROSTOCK

    Is Intra-Regional Trade the


    Bottom Line?

    Share of intra-regional trade in % of total ASEAN trade


    30
    25
    20

    21

    25.1

    24.5

    25.5

    25.4

    25

    24.3

    26

    2003

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    22

    15
    10
    5
    0
    1998

    2000

    Data compiled from ASEAN Statistics

    http://www.imf.org/external/country/VNM/rr/2013/101113.pdf

    http://www.adbi.org/files/2013.10.25.wp440.asean.economic.community.progress.challenges.pdf
    11/22/2014

    ....Extra-Regional Trade Looks


    More Impressive.

    ASEAN-China Trade 2007-2012


    250000
    200000
    150000
    100000
    Deutsche Bank Research (2013),
    http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_ENPROD/PROD0000000000315342.pdf

    50000
    0

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    ASEAN imports from


    97443 112560 97605 128045 156622 204270
    China
    ASEAN Exports to
    79429 89327 82887 114134 142764 195820
    China
    Chart based on data compiled from WTO Trade Statistics
    11/22/2014

    Customs: The (modest) Success Story


    Efficiency of Border Administration 2009 & 2014
    7
    6
    5
    4

    6.5

    3
    2
    1

    3.4
    3

    4.4
    3.8

    5.2
    4.3
    4.7
    3.7

    6.3

    4.7
    4.5

    3.3

    3.4

    2009
    2014
    3.3

    *Data for Brunei (2009 and 2014), Laos and Myanmar (2009) were not available
    The higher the score, the more efficient and transparent is the respective border administration
    Chart based on data compiled from World Economic Forum: The Global Enabling Report 2009 and 2014

    Efficiency of import-export
    procedures, detailed indicators
    (2009 & 2014)
    Efficiency of
    the clearance
    process
    1-5 (best)

    No. of days to
    import

    No. of
    documents to
    import

    Cost to
    import, US$
    per container

    No. of days to
    export

    No. of
    documents to
    export

    Cost to
    export, US$
    per container

    2009

    2014

    2009

    2014

    2009

    2014

    2009

    2014

    2009

    2014

    2009

    2014

    2009

    2014

    Cambodia

    2.2

    2.7

    30

    24

    11

    872

    930

    22

    22

    11

    732

    795

    Indonesia

    2.7

    2.9

    27

    23

    660

    660

    21

    17

    704

    615

    Malaysia

    3.4

    3.4

    14

    450

    485

    18

    11

    450

    450

    Philippines

    2.6

    3.0

    16

    14

    819

    660

    16

    15

    816

    585

    Singapore

    3.9

    4.0

    439

    440

    456

    460

    Thailand

    3.0

    3.2

    13

    13

    795

    760

    14

    21

    625

    595

    Vietnam

    2.9

    2.8

    23

    21

    901

    600

    24

    21

    734

    610

    *Data for Brunei, Laos and Myanmar were not available


    Table based on data compiled from World Economic Forum: The Global Enabling
    Report 2009 and 2014

    11/22/2014

    Significant improvements
    Slight improvements
    Slight worsening
    worsening
    8

    Concluding Diagnostics

    Is the Institutional Setting the Problem?

    11/22/2014

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