The Issue of Capacity

The newly installed Gregory Lane culvert has been identified as being under capacity.
This brief paper provides information to assist in deciding whether or not the culvert is
indeed under capacity.
And decide, if need be, on what additional capacity would probably be acceptable.

Important Considerations
The 22.67 m3/s
The number 22.67 m3/s (cubic meters per second) has been stated as being the capacity
that the culvert should have.
To clarify, 22.67 m3/s is a theoretical number that represents the amount of water that the
maximum opening in the dam could pass.
The number comes from what is called the Francis equation. It is also sometimes called
the "Weir" equation. Because this dam is so old (built in the 1930's), it is the only way,
according to the Canadian Dam Association, to figure out the dam capacity, unless one
had access to original design data.
Which we don't have - so we will use 22.67 m3/s.
The Design Capacity of the New Culvert
The capacity of the newly installed pipe arch culvert has been stated as being 10.2 m3/s by
Greer Galloway.
Actual Peak Flows
Peak flows over the dam since 2007 were obtained from the Trent Severn Waterway that
showed that the culvert design capacity was equalled once and exceeded once with a 16.2
m3/s flow.
This data was also given to Greer Galloway.
And in three years the peak flows were 6.6 m3/s, 8.9 m3/s, and 9.8 m3/s - two just below the
design flow of 10.2 m3/s.
As for frequency of occurrence, each one of the 16.2 m3/s, 10.2 m3/s , 6.6 m3/s, 8.9 m3/s,
and 9.8 m3/s occurred only once in 2316 measurements over a seven year period by the
Trent Severn Waterway.
But they did occur !

The 16.2 m3/s being the highest flow occurring.

And two of the peak flows, 8.9 m3/s and 9.8 m3/s were just below the design
capacity of 10.2 m3/s.
MNR Stated Return Flood Periods & Flows
The MNR has been reported to have indicated a 20 year return flood flow of 5.7
m3/s and a 50 year return flood flow of 6.9 m3/s for our culvert location.
Both below the design flow of 10.2 m3/s.
But note that all but one of the recorded peaks since 2007 exceed the MNR
return flood flows and the one that did not was less by only 0.3 m3/s.
The TSW is reported to have indicated that 22.67 m3/s is the best target flow
for any backwater condition.
It is important to note that return period flood flow numbers are about
probability and statistics. And that a large flow can occur in any year; multiple
times in any year; or in sequential years.
The Flow of Water
It's important to understand that the total amount of water that goes over the dam must
not go over the road and it must all go through one or more openings in the
Gregory Lane causeway.
The one opening we now have can pass only 10.2 m3/s.
Data used in this analysis is based on peak flows, not day to day flows. But it is
the peak flows that can cause flooding and damage.
Climate Change
The water volume that eventually arrives at our dam comes from a watershed that includes
Miskwabi Lake, Wenona Lake, a small lake on Payne's Road, Long Lake, Loon Lake,
Portage Lake, miscellaneous ponds, and runoff and ground water from the lands
surrounding those lakes.
A big area. And a sizeable amount of water.
To help understand how much water we are talking about, take a
yardstick/meter stick and envision a cube about one meter on each side. Now
try to imaging 10.2 of those, full of water, passing by you in one second.

That's how much water our culvert is designed to pass!

Now think about the dam at 22.67 m3/s !
The water flow that can occur just upstream of the Gregory Lane causeway during a
Springtime freshet can actually be predicted using complex weather analysis technology.
One tool used for rainfall forecasting is called an IDF (Intensity, Duration, Frequency)
curve. A recent paper from an Ontario engineering school indicated that a 20% to 40%
increase in intensity can be expected because of coming climate changes.
Rainfall is but one component of the total volume of water flowing in a Spring
freshet. Snow melt, runoff, and ground water are other components.
A rainfall intensity increase of up to 40% is a significant increase of rain falling
during an Spring freshet and cannot be ignored; particularly when there are
other components.

Summary

The theoretical maximum flow of the dam is 22.67 m3/s.

Our culvert is designed to pass 10.2 m3/s.

All water that goes over the dam must pass through the causeway.

Peak flows have occurred just under, equal to, and substantially above the
design capacity of the existing culvert within a seven year span.

MNR Stated Return Food Flows at the culvert location have been exceeded
within a seven year span.

Return Flood Flows can occur any time, not just once in 20 or 50 years.

We have been reviewing Trent Severn Waterway data for only seven years.

Increases in rainfall intensity from 20% to 40% because of climate change

are forecast. This is significant, particularly if it occurs during the Spring
freshets when heavy rains can occur during snow and ice melt conditions,
creating peak flows.

Not Addressed in this Paper

lowland areas on Loon Lake that are subject to flooding

risk, exposure, liability, and legalities possibly involved in flooding issues
design and construction proposals
costs of any remedial work
how the GRCA arrived at the water problems it now faces.

Closing
Sufficient information that has been provided to decide whether or not the culvert is under
capacity.
And decide, if need be, how much additional capacity would be acceptable for protection

Mike
November 2014

Disclaimer
This article is published by me as a service to my readers and other interested parties. It is based on my own findings
and interpretations. No scientific validation has been performed. While every effort was made to ensure that
information was correct at the time of completion, the accuracy and the updatedness of data from other sources cannot
be guaranteed. I do not assume and hereby disclaim any liability of any nature whatsoever to any party for any loss,
damage, disruption or suffering caused by use of the information contained in this article or as a result of errors or
omissions; whether or not such errors or omissions result from negligence, accident, or any other cause. No one should
act upon comments made without considering the facts of specific situations and/or consulting appropriate professional
advisors.
2014 Mike Grinnell