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Material Covered
Discussion of Caselet-2
Frameworks for Growth Forecasting
Introduction to Business Cycles
Real Business Cycle Theory
1
2 2
K
ICOR =
by definition.
Y
K
Or Y =
ICOR
Or
Y K / Y
=
Y
ICOR
or G Y =
ICOR
I/ Y
Harrod Domar Growth Equation
ICOR
3 3
Business Cycles
Sessions 11-12
We address:
What are economic fluctuations? What are their
characteristics?
Introduction
Over the long run, real GDP grows about
3% per year on average.
recessions:
depressions:
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
The shaded
bars are
recessions
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
1,600
Investment spending,
billions of 2000 dollars
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Unemployment rate,
percent of labor force
10
8
6
4
2
0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Introduction, continued
Explaining these fluctuations is difficult, and the
theory of economic fluctuations is controversial.
11
12
Real GDP
growth rate
Consumption
growth rate
Average 4
growth
rate 2
0
-2
-4
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
13
2010
Investment
growth rate
20
Real GDP
growth rate
10
0
Consumption
growth rate
-10
-20
-30
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
14
2010
Unemployment
Percent 12
of labor
force
10
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
15
2010
Okuns Law
Okuns law is an empirical relationship between
changes in aggregate output (relative to its
potential trend) and changes in the unemployment
rate (relative to its natural rate)
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/es/article/
9295
AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGREGATE SUPPLY
16
Okuns Law
Each dot in the next chart represents the observed
changes in GDP and unemployment in a particular
year.
17
Okuns Law
Percentage 10
change in
real GDP 8
6
1951
Y
= 3 2 u
Y
1966
1984
2003
1971
1987
2001
1975
2009
2008
-2
1991
1982
-4
-3
-2
-1
Okuns Law
Thus, this empirically estimated Okuns law states
that for each 1-percentage-point increase (decrease)
in the unemployment rate from its natural rate, total
output on average will be lowered (raised) by nearly
2 percent relative to its long-run HP trend.
19