To:

Heather Higgins, CEO Independent Womens Voice

From: George Birnbaum, CEO GEB International

Date: November 25, 2014
Re: US Senate Run-off Election in Louisiana
________________________________________________________________
With less than two weeks until the U.S. Senate run-off election in Louisiana, the
Republican wave will continue, as three-term incumbent Democrat Mary
Landrieu faces what could be the biggest landslide loss by any incumbent
Democrat in the 2014 cycle.
The survey, conducted by GEB International on behalf of Independent Womens
Voice, shows GOP challenger U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy trouncing Landrieu by 26
percentage points. However, the complication for Landrieu goes further then her
narrow constituency (where her support fails to expand beyond hardcore
Democrats) and toward her unpopularity, the unpopularity of the President and
her misalignment on two important issues ObamaCare and immigration.
Louisianans, by 72-20%, see the United States as on the wrong track. This
includes 92% of Republicans, 79% of Independents and 37% of Democrats. This
is a contributing factor to both the Presidents and Landrieus unfavorable rating.
Barack Obama has a net negative favorable rating, with two-thirds of Louisianans
saying they are unfavorable toward him. This includes 80% of Independents, and
nearly a third (32%) of his fellow Democrats. Similarly, 62% of all likely voters,
69% of Independents, and 26% of Democrats views Landrieu unfavorably.
Cassidy, on the other hand, enjoys a positive favorability rating, with 48% of all
likely voters, 76% of Republicans, and 45% of Independents favorable toward
him.
Landrieu is also on the wrong side on two of the biggest issues for likely voters.
According to the survey, voters believe that illegal immigration is the biggest
issue facing the nation as a whole; on the personal side, they believe
ObamaCare and, to a lesser extent, the related issue of increasing health care
premiums are the biggest issue that they and their families are facing.

When voters were asked which is more important for Congress to deal with first,
where they were given the choice between building the Keystone XL Pipeline,
repealing ObamaCare, or restricting the President from authorizing illegal
immigrants to remain in the U.S by Executive Order, 41% said restricting the
President from taking executive action on illegal immigration was the most
important issue of the three. Further, 77% of likely voters believe that no
American President should act on his own through Executive Order, no matter
how important the issue, except where the Constitution specifically authorizes
him to do so.
Louisiana voters have also soured on the Presidents signature piece of domestic
legislation, with a majority (51%) of all voters saying ObamaCare should be
repealed. (This includes 74% of Republicans, 54% of Independents, and 27% of
Democrats.) Part of this souring is linked to the effect of the legislation on voters
the Affordable Care Act has negatively impacted 41% of all voters or someone
they know. (This includes 58% of Republicans, 51% of Independents and 20% of
Democrats.) The other part is the ObamaCare premium increases that have
begun to pick the pockets of Louisianans and the lack of transparency around the
price increases. Sixty-two percent (62%) of all voters acknowledge premium
increases as happening, and 60% of all voters believe the Obama Administration
purposely delayed the increases until after the midterm elections this includes
83% of Republicans, 67% of Independents, and even a whopping 35% of
members of the Presidents own Party.
Moreover, the survey makes clear that for the largest number of Louisiana voters,
the principal reason to stop illegal immigration is not that illegal immigrants take
jobs from American citizens, or to stop the influx of criminals or even terrorists
from crossing the border; rather, the most important single reason to stop illegal
immigration is the need to use tax dollars to support American citizens, followed
by the need to protect the rule of law. Pluralities of Independents (33%) and
Republicans (29%) place the use of tax dollars to support Americans first, while
placing the need to protect the rule of law second (27% support among
Republicans, 28% support among Independents), while Democrats place the
need to protect the rule of law as their top reason to oppose illegal immigration,
scoring 21%.
Interestingly, the single best line of attack against Landrieu is not that she voted
with President Obama 97% of the time (54% say they would be less likely to vote
for that candidate), but that she cast the deciding vote for ObamaCare (55% say
they would be less likely to support that candidate).
Further, fully 63% of the survey sample (including 73% of Republicans, 56% of
Democrats, and 61% of Independents) say they would be more likely to support
a candidate who worked hard to pass legislation to repeal the special exemption
from ObamaCare enjoyed by Members of Congress and their staffs, so that
Congress lives under the same laws it imposes on the rest of us.

President Obamas decision to defer deportation for up to five million illegal

immigrants by executive action clearly hurts Landrieu. By 77-17% (92-5% among
Republicans, 60-32% among Democrats, and 83-11% among Independents),
Louisiana voters said that No American President, Democrat or Republican,
should ever go around the law, no matter how important the issue, except where
the Constitution specifically authorizes him to do so comes closer to their point
of view than does Any American President, Democrat or Republican, should act
on his own through executive order, even if it means going around the law, if he
feels it is important enough and he is not getting cooperation from the Congress.
The cumulative effect of this is seen in the ballot test, where Cassidy leads
Landrieu 60-34%. While 26% is, on its own, a huge deficit, a closer look reveals
an even bleaker picture for Landrieu and just how weak her constituency is. As
the graph below demonstrates, Bill Cassidys support goes well beyond
Republicans to include 66% of Independents and 25% of Democrats Landrieu
is losing a quarter of her own party. And the kingmakers of this election the
supporters of Tea Party-backed Rob Maness, who finished third in the first round
of voting, with 14% have moved squarely behind Cassidy, by 83-6%. Further,
Mary Landrieu is losing among women by 19 points. Among Independent women,
its even worse; she is losing by 38 points. And 22% of Democrat women say
they are voting for Cassidy.

Landrieus attempt to pass a bill on the Keystone XL Pipeline was the last chance
to reverse the ebbing tide of support. Like that feeble attempt, it is clear that her
time and support have run out, making it virtually certain that the GOP will pick
up this seat. Now, the real question is simply, by how much?

Methodology: This Louisiana Statewide survey of 850 likely voters was

conducted on November 20, 2014 by telephone to a random sampling of voters
and has a Margin of Error of +/- 3.36%.