Power sector development in Pakistan

Letter of Transmittal

Date: October 30th, 2009

Sir Rafique

Instructor, Economic development,

KUBS

Dear Sir,

With reference to the topic assigned, this report is being submitted to you on
October 31st 2009, as requested. It is based on the Power sector
development. The report has been drafted to provide a perspective on the
past considerations and current scenario of power development in Pakistan.

The report includes the supply and demand of the electricity and methods of
electricity generation and their respective sectorial distribution. The report
also includes the expansion plan of government regarding the power
development in Pakistan.

We have tried our level best to use the basic concepts taught in this course.
Hope you enjoy viewing our work and it is satisfactory.

Thank You

Sincerely,

Shazhad Rafique # 25

Sohaib Akram # 13

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 Power sector development in Pakistan

Table of contents

S.NO. PARTICULARS PAGE

NO.

1 Introduction 3

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 Power sector development in Pakistan

2 Overview of electricity sector 4

3 Installed generation capacity 6

4 Supply sources of electricity 7

1.WAPDA 7

2.KESC 11
3.Nuclear Energy 11

4.Independent power projects 12

5 Transmission &Distribution 14
6 Consumption of electricity 15

7 Growth in consumers 17

8 Village electrification 19

9 Expansion of generating 21
capacities
10 conclusion 21

INTRODUCTION
Pakistan’s energy infrastructure is under-developed, insufficient and poorly
managed. Presently
Pakistan has been facing severe energy crisis. Despite strong economic
growth and rising energy demand during the past decade, no serious efforts
have been made to install new capacity of generation. Consequently, the
demand exceeds supply and hence load-shedding is a common phenomenon
through power shutdown. Pakistan needs around 14,000 to 15,000 MW
electricity per day, and the demand is likely rise to approximately to 20,000
MW per day by 2010. Presently, it can produce about 11,500 MW per day

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 Power sector development in Pakistan

and there is a shortfall of about 3000 to 4000 MW per day. This shortage is
badly affecting industry, commerce, daily life and posing risks to the
economic growth. The overall requirement of Pakistan is expected to be
about 80 MTOE in 2010, up by 50% from the 54 MTOE of the current year.
During the past 25 years energy supply in Pakistan has been increased by
about 40 times but still the demand outstrips supply. With the increase in
economic activities, per capita energy consumption had also been increased.
Industrialization, growth in agriculture and services sectors, urbanization,
rising per capita income and rural electrification has resulted in a
phenomenal rise in energy demand (NBP, 2008). Inefficient use of energy
and its wastages has further widened the demand-supply gap and exerts
strong pressure on the energy resources in the country. The annual growth
of primary energy supply increased from 3.17% to 4.3% during 1997-98 to
2006-07. The share of natural gas reached to 48.5%, followed by oil 30.0%,
hydro electricity 12.6%, coal 7.3%, nuclear electricity 0.9%, LPG 0.5% and
imported electricity by 0.1% during the year 2006-07.

In Pakistan the current energy crisis stems from the decline in hydro sources
of energy and over reliance on the expansive source of electricity. Presently,
oil-based thermal plants accounts for 68% of generating capacity,
hydroelectric plants for 30% and nuclear plants for only 2% This has led to a
huge generation costs, which in turn adversely affect the economy over the
past eight years. Rise in the oil prices pushing electricity tariff very high. As a
result, manufacturing costs and inflation are at the rising trend, export
competitiveness is eroded and the pressure on the balance of payments is
increasing. These factors adversely affect the present growth trajectory of
the economy .

OVERVIEW OF ELECTRICITY SECTOR IN PAKISTAN

At the time of independence in 1947, the power generation capacity of
Pakistan was only 60 MW for a population of 31.5 million, with a per capita
consumption of 4.5 units. However, the power sector gained momentum in

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1970, and the installed capacity rose from 636 MW in 1970 to 1331 MW in
1975. In 1980, the system capacity touched 3000 MW, and thereafter it
rapidly grew to over 8000 MW by 1990–1991 (Government of Pakistan,
2008).

At present, electricity demand is 13,021 MW, which is expected to increase

in the coming years. Responsibility for the generation and supply of
electricity rests with two utilities—the Pakistan Water and Power
Development Authority (WAPDA) and the Karachi Electricity Supply
Corporation (KESC).WAPDA supplies electricity throughout the country while
KESC is responsible for supplying electricity to Karachi and its adjoining
areas. The Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission owns nuclear power plants,
which are connected to WAPDA and KESC networks. The Independent Power
Plants (IPPs) are connected to the national grids at various locations.

The total installed generation capacity is around 19,420 MW and the

customer base is about 17.73 million in 2007–2008 (Government of Pakistan,
2008). The current installed capacity of electricity is about 19,420 MW.
During the year 2006–2007, the power system generated 98,213 million kWh
of electricity (Table 6) of which 64.3 per cent comes from thermal plants,
while hydroelectricity and nuclear power account for 33.4 and 2.4 per cent,
respectively. Pakistan’s total generation capacity has increased rapidly due
to the establishment of IPPs; this almost eliminated the power shortage in
the 1990s. The supply of hydroelectricity is season dependent and decreases
by about 3000–4000 MW when the water level in the dams gets low during
winter. The effective generating capacity of WAPDA’s power plants has
decreased slightly. In the past several years, the installed capacity has been
insufficient to meet the demand. Current supply is estimated at 15,055 MW
against demand of more than 17,600 MW.A deficit of 2500 MW was recorded
through load shedding, which reduced the industrial growth and adversely
affected the economy. Many villages do not enjoy access to electricity, and
only 60 per cent of the population are connected to the national grid.

During the period 1970–2000, the industrial sector consumed 35 percent of

electricity, followed by households (33 per cent), agriculture sector (17 per
cent), 8 per cent by bulk and the commercial sector by 6 per cent. However,
during 2001–2006, the electricity consumption of households dramatically
increased to 47 per cent. During the same period, the industrial and
agriculture sectors consumption reduced to 33 and 11 per cent, respectively.
Commercial sector consumption remained at 6 per cent while bulk share in
consumption reduced to 6 per cent. Similarly, during 2006–2007, household
electricity consumption remained dominant (46 per cent), followed by
industrial sector (29 per cent), agriculture sector (11 per cent), commercial
sector (7 per cent), bulk supplies (6 per cent) and street lights (1 per cent)
(Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan, 2007). Thus, the huge
increase in household consumption of electricity is the major reason for the

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 Power sector development in Pakistan

demand–supply gap. The total installed power generation capacity is

insufficient to meet the growing needs of the country and has hit the
economy badly. The growing electricity demand–supply gap has forced the
authorities to resort to load shedding for very long duration. This has
adversely affected the public, businesses and trading communities. To tackle
the power crisis, the government has to come up with mega hydroelectric
projects and encourage domestic and foreign investors to invest in the
energy sector and extend and improve the nuclear power generation.

Installed Capacity of Electricity by source

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Sectorial Consumption of Electricity from 1970-2000

INSTALLED GENERATION CAPACITY

In 1947 the total installed generation capacity, hydro and thermal was 70
MW, 60 MW in now WAPDA system and 10 MW in Karachi. It is 19754 MW in
2009, hydro 6555 MW; thermal 13119 MW which includes conventional
steam and combined cycle power plants and nuclear 462 MW owner
Pakistan atomic energy commission.
The total installed generation capacity of WAPDA in 2008-09 is 11,454 MW,
including 6,555 Hydel and 4,899 Thermal. Other sources of generation are
KESC 1,884 MW and IPPs 5,954 MW.

Total Installed Generation Capacity(MW)

Power Company Installed Share(%)

Capacity(2008-
2009)

1. WAPDA 11,454 58

2. Hydel 6,555 57.2 (share in WAPDA

System)

3. Thermal 4,899 42.8 (share in WAPDA

System)

4. KESC 1,884 9.5

5. IPPs 5,954 30.1

6. Nuclear 462 2.3

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 Power sector development in Pakistan

Total 19,754 100.0

Source: Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan

SUPPLY SOURCES OF ELECTRICITY

1.WAPDA
The installed capacity of PEPCO system is 18,019 MW as of March 2009 with
hydro 6555 MW and thermal 11,464 MW. The hydropower capacity accounts
for 36.38 percent and thermal 63.62 percent. Out of 11,464 MW of thermal
power, 4899 MW is owned by ex-WAPDA GENCOs 285 MW by rental, 325 by
PAEC and 5954 by IPPs.

Addition in Installed Generation Capacity in Pakistan (Megawatt)

Year Hydro Share(%) Thermal Share(%) Total

1959-63 267 67.0 130 33.0 397

1964-68 300 45.4 361 54.6 661

1969-73 100 51.0 96 49.0 196

1974-78 900 67.2 438 32.8 1338

1979-83 980 74.3 339 25.7 1319

1984-88 350 22.0 1245 78.0 1595

1989-93 864 32.7 1782 67.3 2646

1994-98 1064 31.2 2350 68.8 3414

Electricity Generation by WAPDA(GWh)

Year Hydro Share(%) Thermal Share(%) Total

1998-99 22,448 41.8 31,235 58.2 53,683

1999-00 19,288 34.3 36,585 65.5 55,873

2000-01 17,259 29.5 41,196 70.5 58,455

2001-02 19,056 31.3 41,804 68.7 60,860

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 Power sector development in Pakistan

2002-03 22,350 34.9 41,690 65.1 64,064

2003-04 27,477 39.8 41,617 60.2 69,094

2004-05 25,671 34.9 47,849 65 73,520

2005-06 30,855 37.5 51,370 62.5 82,225

2006-07 31,942 36.4 55,895 63.6 87,837

2007-08 28,667 33.23 57,602 66.77 86,269

July-March

2007-08 21,606 33.5 42,963 66.5 64,569

2008-09 20,665 33.7 40,653 66.3 61,318

Source: PEPCO

WAPDA THERMAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION

WAPDA's Thermal Power Generation is mainly based on generation of power

from its Steam Turbo-Generators, Gas Turbines (simple as well as Combined
Cycle Units) installed at different Power Stations located in Sindh, Punjab and
Balochistan provinces. Indigenous Gas & Coal is the main fuel whereas
Furnace oil and HSD are also used as alternative fuel. The total installed
capacity is 4664 MW.

Thermal power plants generated a total of 21.593 Billion units (kwh) of

energy during the year 2006-07. The energy generated during 2008 was
62% on gas,37% on furnace oil and 1% on coal.

As per Government of Pakistan policy all thermal power generation has been
restructured and four corporative companies namely Jamshoro Power
Generation Company Limited (GENCO-1) head quarter at Jamshoro district
Dadu near Hyderabad Sindh, Central Power Generation Company Limited
(GENCO-2) head quarter at Guddu district Jacobabad Sindh and Northern
Power Generation Company Limited (GENCO-3) head quarters at
Muzaffargarh and Lakhra Power Generation Company Limited (GENCO-IV) at
Khanote (Sindh) have been formed and registered. Functioning of GENCO’s
has commenced.

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 Power sector development in Pakistan

WAPDA HYDEL ELECTRICITY GENERATION

As a consequence of partition of the Indo-Pakistan Sub-Continent in 1947,
India and Pakistan became two independent sovereign states. Hydel
generation capacity of only 10.7 MW (9.6 MW - Malakand Power Station & 1.1
MW - Renala Power Station) existed in the territory of Pakistan. With the
passage of time, new Hydel Power Projects of Small and Medium capacities
were commissioned including the first water storage dam and power house
at Warsak due to which country's Hydel capability raised to about 267 MW
up till 1963. The Irrigation System which existed at the time of partition in
1947 was divided between the two countries without any regards to the
irrigation boundaries which resulted in an international water dispute which
was finally resolved by signing of the Indus Water Treaty in 1960 under the
aegis of World Bank. The Treaty assigned three Eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas
and Sutlej) to India and three Western rivers (Indus, Jhelum & Chenab) to
Pakistan. It also provided construction of replacement works called Indus
Basin Projects (IBP) to compensate for perpetual loss of Eastern rivers' water.
The works proposed under the Treaty included two multipurpose dams i.e.
Mangla Dam on Jhelum river and Tarbela Dam on Indus river having the
provision of power generation. These were commissioned in 1967 & 1977
respectively. However, their capacities were subsequently extended in
different phases
HYDEL GENERATION CAPACITY
The total capacity of 13 No. Hydel Stations as of today is 6444 MW which is
35.88% of total installed generation capacity of WAPDA. During 2008~2009,
aggregate energy sharing during the year was 33.07%.
SEASONAL VARIATIONS OF HYDEL GENERATION
The seasonal variations of reservoir levels and consequent reduction in
Power outputs of storage type hydel projects in Pakistan are very
pronounced. Tarbela with maximum head of 450 ft. experiences variation of
181 ft. while Mangla has 162 ft. variation against the maximum head of 360
ft.
The lean flow period of Tarbela reservoir is from November to June when the
Capability reduces to as low as about 1884 MW against the maximum of
3714 MW during high head period i.e. August to September (15% permissible
overloading on Units 1~10).
Lean flow period of Mangla reservoir is observed from October to March
when the minimum generating capability is 496 MW. The capability rises to
as high as 1150 MW during 'high head' period (15% permissible overloading).

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In all, WAPDA's Hydel generating capability varies between the two

extremities of 3506 MW and 6750 MW over the cycle of a year.

SALIENT FEATURES OF WAPDA HYDEL STATIONS

Station Water Way Units No. Capacity of Installed Date of
(River/Canal) Unit Capacity Commissioning
(MW) (MW)
Tarbela Indus 1~4 175 700 Jul. 1977
(Reservoir) 5~8 175 700 Dec. 1982
9~10 175 350 Apr. 1985
11 432 432 Feb. 1993
12~14 432 1296 Nov.1992
Total 3478
Barotha Indus 1 290 290 July. 2003
(D/S Tarbela) 2 290 290 Aug. 2003
3 290 290 Oct. 2003
4 290 290 Dec. 2003
5 290 290 April. 2004
Total 1450

Mangla Jhelum 1~4 100 400 1967 - 1969

(Reservoir) 5~6 100 200 Mar. 1974
7~8 100 200 Apr. 1981
9 100 100 Sep. 1993
10 100 100 Jul. 1994
Total 1000
Warsak Kabul 1~4 40.0 160 Jul. 1960
(Reservoir) 5~6 41.48 83 Mar. 1981
Total 243
Chashma Chashma 1 23 23 Jun. 2001
(Barrage) 2~3 23 46 Apr. 2001
4~5 23 46 Mar. 2001
6 23 23 Feb. 2001
7~8 23 46 Dec. 2000
Total 184
Upper Jhelum Canal from River 1~2 11.0 22.0 Jul. 1952
Rasul Jhelum
Swat canal from River Swat 1~4 5.0 20.0 Dec.1952
Dargai
Upper Chenab Canal from River 1~3 4.6 13.8 Mar. 1963
Nandipur Chenab
Upper Jhelum Canal from River 1~2 6.75 13.5 Jan. 1961
Shadiwal Jhelum
Upper Chenab Canal from River 1~3 4.4 13.2 Aug. 1959
Chichoki Chenab
Lower Bari Doab Canal from 1~5 0.22 1.1 Mar. 1925
Renala Balloki Headworks on Ravi

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Kachkot Canal from River 1~4 1.0 4.0 Feb. 1958

K/Garhi Kurram
Ludko 1~2 0.3 0.6 1975
Chitral 3~4 0.2 0.4 1982
Total 1.0
2.KARACHI ELECTRIC SUPPLY COMPANY (KESC):
KESC fleet has 1890 MWs of installed capacity to cater to the city load
requirement. The main generation units consisting of Bin Qasim Power
Station, Korangi Thermal Power Station, Site Gas Turbines and Korangi Gas
Turbines, with a new power plant at Korangi (Combined Cycle Power
Plant).Presently the situation is as under

S. Name of Power Plant Location Available

No. Capacity
(MW)

1 Bin Qasim Power Port Qasim Industrial 1021

Station Area

2 Korangi Thermal Power Korangi Creek 55

Station

3 GEJB- 1 SITE, Karachi 80

4 GEJB- 2 Korangi Industrial 35

Area

5 Combined Cycle Power Korangi Creek 160

Station

GRAND TOTAL
=1351

3.NUCLEAR ENERGY:

Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) is responsible for the planning,

construction and operation of nuclear power plants in the country. Presently,
two nuclear power plants; Karachi
Nuclear Power Plant (K-1) and Chashma Nuclear Power Plant unit-1 (C-1) are
operational, while
construction of a third plant, Chashma Nuclear Power Plant unit-2 (C-2), is in
progress. K1, has

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 Power sector development in Pakistan

been in commercial operation since 1971. After completing its design life of
30 years, K-1 is
operating on extended life at 90 MWe. K-1 generated 317 million kWh of
electricity during
the period July-March 2008-09, raising its life-time generation to 12.21 billion
kWh. C-1, a PWR type plant with a gross capacity of 325 MWe, and has been
in commercial operation since September 2000. C-1 generated 602 million
kWh of electricity during July-March 2008-09, raising its lifetime generation
to 16.86 billion kWh. The construction and installation activities of C-2 are in
progress as per schedule. The commercial operation of C-2 is expected in
2011.

In Pakistan, nuclear power makes a small contribution to total energy

production and requirements, supplying only 2.34% of the country's
electricity. Total generating capacity is 20 GWe and in 2006, 98 billion kWh
gross was produced, 37% of it from gas, 29% from oil.
Its first nuclear power reactor is a small (125 MWe) Canadian pressurized
heavy water reactor (PHWR) which started up in 1971 and which is under
international safeguards - KANUPP near Karachi, which is operated at
reduced power.
The second unit is Chashma-1 in Punjab, a 325 MWe (300 MWe net)
pressurised water reactor (PWR) supplied by China's CNNC under safeguards.
The main part of the plant was designed by Shanghai Nuclear Engineering
Research and Design Institute (SNERDI), based on Qinshan-1. It started up in
May 2000 and is also known as CHASNUPP-1.Construction of its twin,
Chashma-2, started in December 2005. It is reported to cost PKR 51.46
billion (US$ 860 million, with $350 million of this financed by China). A
safeguards agreement with IAEA was signed in 2006 and grid connection is
expected in 2011.
Reacto Typ MW Construct Commer Plann
r e e ion start cial ed
net operatio close
n

Karach PHW 125 1966 12/72

i R

Chash PWR 300 1993 6/00

ma 1

Chash PWR 300 2005 2011

ma 2

Total 425 operating

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5. INDEPENDENT POWER PROJECTS:

The 17 largest independent power producers in Pakistan all operate thermal

generating plants only . The two largest privately owned power producers
are the HUB Company (HUBCO) and the Kot Addu Power Company (KAPCO).
HUBCO belongs to a consortium formed by National Power (Great Britain),
Xenal (Saudi Arabia) and Mitsui Corporation (Japan) and possesses just under
1,300 MW of generating capacity. KAPCO, with more than 1,600 MW of
power generating capacity, was privatized in 1996 and now belongs to the
British enterprise National Power. Between 1994 and 1997, 19 IPP projects
amounting to an overall capacity of 3,158 MW and a total investment volume
of some US$ 4 billion were awarded competitive bidding contracts. By the
end of March 2003, 2,728 MW of the total had already been installed. The
power-producing volume was so large that the Pakistani electricity market
began to exhibit intermittent overcapacities. The city of Karachi receives all
its electricity from KESC, while WAPDA serves the rest of the country. In the
medium to long term, though, the sale of electricity is also supposed to be
liberalized.

Detail of the IPPs Projects commissioned and under commercial

operations is as under
Sr. Name of Technology Commercial Gross Net Energy Received
# Project Operation Capacity Capacity July, 2006 to June,
Date (MW) (MW) 2007 (GWh)

1 KAPCO GTs, Combined 27.06.1996 1638 1345 8183

cycle, Steam
Turbine on
LSFO/Gas/ Diesel

2 Hubco Steam Turbine on 31.03.1997 1292 1207.3 7212

Fuel Oil

3 Kohinoor Diesel engines on 20.06.1997 131 124 806

Energy Ltd fuel oil

4 AES Lalpir Steam turbines on 06.11.1997 362 350.7 1356

fuel oil

5 AES Pakgen Steam turbines on 01.02.1998 365 350.5 1943

fuel oil

6 Southern Diesel engines on 10.03.1999 117 103.791 539

Electric fuel oil

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Power

7 Habibullah Combined cycle on 11.09.1999 140 129.15 966

Coastal natural gas
Power

8 Fauji Combined cycle on 21.10.1999 157 151.2 1184

Kabirwala gas
Power

9 Rousch Combined cycle on 11.12.1999 450 395 3090

(Pakistan) fuel oil
Power

10 Saba Power Steam turbine on 31.12.1999 134 125.55 868

fuel oil

11 Japan Power Diesel engines on 14.03.2000 135 107.0 528

Generation fuel oil

12 Uch Power Combined cycle on 18.10.2000 586 551.25 3889

low Btu gas

13 Altern Flared gas/Gas 06.06.2001 10.5 5.13 0

Energy Engine

14 Liberty Combined cycle on 10.09.2001 235 210.341 1305

Power natural gas

15 CHASNUPP Nuclear 325 300 1944

16 JAGRAN Hydel 23.10.2000 30 30 96

17 RETNAL Gas Turbine 22.02.2007 150 150 213

POWER
STATION

18 TAVANIR, Import from Iran Sep. 2003 39 39 171

IRAN

Total: 6296.5 5674.912 34293

TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION

In 1947, we had only 1200 KMs Transmission Lines. The total length of
transmission lines now stands about 4665 Km. WAPDA's Power Transmission
Lines system is interconnected through a National Grid which extends power
from Peshawar to Karachi - Quetta and Azad Kashmir linking all important
cities of the country.

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There are 9 Distribution Supply Companies namely Each Distribution

Company is headed by Chief Executive. Area of Jurisdiction in respect of each
Distribution Company is as under

Name of Area of Jurisdiction

Distributio
n
Company

LESCO Sheikhupura , Kasur , Lahore , Okara .

GEPCO Gujranwala, Sialkot, Mandi Bahauddin ,

Hafizabad , Narowal , Gujrat .

FESCO Faisalabad , Sargodha , Khushab , Jhang , Toba

Tek Singh , Bhalwal , Mianwali , Bhakkar
Districts of Punjab Province .

IESCO Islamabad , Rawalpindi , Attock , Jhelum ,

Chakwal .

MEPCO Rahim Yar Khan , Multan , Khanewal , Sahiwal,

Pakpattan , Vehari , Muzaffargarh , Dera Ghazi
Khan , Leiah , Rajan Pur , Bahawalpur , Lodhran
, Bahawalnagar .

PESCO Whole Province of NWFP .

HESCO Whole Province of Sindh except Karachi where

KESC is responsible for distribution of power .

QESCO Whole Province of Balochistan .

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 Power sector development in Pakistan

CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY
With the sole exception of fiscal year 1998/99, power consumption has
grown steadily in recent
years. Between 1990/91 and 2003/04, total consumption increased by more
than 84%, from 31 TWh to 57 TWh. Again, with a single exception - fiscal
year 1990/91 – the domestic sector was the consumer group with the largest
proportion of consumption, followed by industry and agriculture. The demand
for electricity will continue to rise in the years to come. An average annual
increase of 7% has been postulated.

After recording at an average rate of 6.1 percent per annum since 1999-00
to 2007-08, the electricity consumption by different sectors increased merely
by 0.7 percent during July-March 2008-09 against the comparable period last
year. This trend of the decelerating growth of electricity consumption started
in 2006-07. With the exception of Other Government Sector, all remaining
sectors witnessed a negative growth during July-March 2008-09 over the
same period last year. Reduction in consumption of electricity by different
sectors is due to a shortage of electricity, its higher cost due to gradual
phasing out of a subsidy on electricity, and the circular debt problem.

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CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY

Fiscal ELECTRICITY (Gwh) Increase (%)

Year

1998-99 43,296 -

1999-00 45,586 5.3

2000-01 48,584 6.6

2001-02 50,622 4.2

2002-03 52,656 4.0

2003-04 57,491 9.2

2004-05 61,327 6.7

2005-06 67,603 10.2

2006-07 72,712 7.6

2007-08 73,400 0.9

Avg. 10 6.1
Yrs

CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY BY SECTORS Gwh (000)

Year Househ Commer Industri Agricult Street Other

old cial al ure Light Govt.
Gwh(00
Gwh(00 Gwh(00 Gwh(00 Gwh Gwh(00
0)
0) 0) 0) 0)

1998-99 19.4 2.4 12.0 5.6 224 3.6

1999-00 21.4 2.5 13.2 4.5 239 3.6

2000-01 22.8 2.8 14.3 4.9 213 3.5

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 Power sector development in Pakistan

2001-02 23.2 3.0 15.1 5.6 212 3.5

2002-03 23.7 3.2 16.2 6.0 244 3.4

2003-04 25.8 3.7 17.4 6.7 262 3.7

2004-05 27.6 4.1 18.6 7.0 305 3.8

2005-06 30.7 4.7 19.8 7.9 353 4.0

2006-07 33.3 5.4 21.1 8.2 387 4.4

2007-08 33.7 5.6 20.7 8.5 415 4.5

GROWTH IN CONSUMERS

The pattern of consumption underwent a gradual transformation during the

period 1960–98 The major beneficiaries of power sector development in
Pakistan were the general populace, i.e., the households. Its share went from
12.81 percent in 1960 to 42.08 percent in 1998.

Electricity Used By Consumers Category

(MLN Kilowatt Hours)
Year Domesti Commer Industri Agricult Others Total
c cial al ure

1959- 120 66 531 67 77 860

1960

1964- 258 179 1409 277 278 2401

1965

1969- 546 337 2299 965 590 4737

1970

1974- 917 468 3056 1539 851 6831

1975

1979- 2012 595 4056 2067 1069 9799

1980

1984- 5091 1375 6317 2795 2030 17608

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 Power sector development in Pakistan

1985

1989- 9402 1964 10333 5027 2469 29195

1990

1994- 15583 1941 12528 6252 5360 41664

1995

1997- 18724 2333 12297 7004 4143 44501

1998

Source: WAPDA & KESC power system statistics

With the expansion of the electricity network, the number of consumers has
increased by 7,675
thousands since 1998-99. During July-march 2008-09, the growth of
consumers stood at 4.2 percent as it reached 18.5 million consumers during
July- March 2008-09 as compared to 17.7 million in same period last year.
The share of domestic consumers remained 84.9 percent followed by the
commercial and industrial sectors having a 12.3 percent and a 1.4 percent
share respectively
CONSUMERS BY ECONOMIC GROUP(thousands)

Year Domesti Commerc Industri Agricultu Others Total

c ial al ral

1998-99 8,912 1,517 190 173 8 10,800

1999-00 9,554 1,654 195 175 8 11,586

2000-01 10,045 1,737 196 180 8 12,166

2001-02 10,483 1,803 200 184 8 12,678

2002-03 11,044 1,867 206 192 9 13,318

2003-04 11,737 1,935 210 199 10 14,092

2004-05 12,490 1,983 212 201 10 14,896

2005-06 13,390 2,068 222 220 10 15,911

2006-07 14354 2,152 233 236 11 16,987

2007-08 15,226 2,229 242 245 11 17,955

Source:WAPDA & KESC power system statistics

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VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION

Pakistan’s increasing demand for energy is due in part to efforts designed to

promote the process of rural electrification. Until 1995/96, the number of
villages with access to grid power grew by 9 to 11% annually. Since then,
however, the increasing connection costs have driven the growth rate down
to about 2% per year. As of March 2003, approximately 73,000 (59%) of
Pakistan’s roughly 125,000 villages were receiving electricity (compared with
approximately 46,000 villages, or 37%, in mid-1993. Recently the
Government of Pakistan has publicly announced an ambitious plan to provide
basic power to all the citizens through out the country by the end of 2007.
About 67.0 percent of the population of the country resides in rural areas
with agriculture being the main occupation Keeping this fact in view and in
order to increase the productivity of a majority of the population, the village
electrification programme is being highlighted as a central component of the
total power sector development programme. The number of villages
electrified has increased to 66,280 since 1998-99. Furthermore, the village
electrification facility has increased by 5.7 percent during the period of July-
March 2008-09 as compared to same period last year. The detailed trend of
village electrification is.

VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION (in numbers)

Year Total Cumulative Total

Pre WAPDA 609 609

1960-1963 1041 1650

1964-1968 557 2207

1969-1973 719 2926

1974-1978 4691 7617

1979-1983 7622 15239

1984-1988 12452 27691

1989-1993 17953 45644

1994-1997 18924 64568

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 Power sector development in Pakistan

1997-1998 1383 65951

VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION (in numbers)

Year Addition Progressive Growth(%)

during the total
year

1998 1,232 67,183

1999 1,109 68,292 1.7

2000 1,595 69,887 2.3

2001 1,674 71,561 2.4

2002 2,246 73,807 3.1

2003 7,193 81,000 9.7

2004 9,467 90,467 11.7

2005 12,764 103,231 14.1

2006 14,203 117,456 13.8

2007 10,441 127,897 8.9

July-March

2007-08 8,840 126,296

2008-09 5,566 133,463 5.7

The electrification of villages manifests transformation of the rural economy

in checking the influx of rural workforce in search of work to the already

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 Power sector development in Pakistan

populous cities and towns where the essential services supplied by the
utilities are already over capacitated

EXPANSION OF GENERATING CAPACITIES (FUTURE

OUTLOOK)
By reason of the projected increase in the demand for electricity by some
10,000 MW by the year 2010. To keep that from happening, or at least to
minimize future supply deficits, Pakistan has adopted a systematic
development plan called ‘Vision 2025’ that targets a long-term capacity
increase of around 35,000 MW by the year 2025. That would be nearly twice
as much power as was available at the end of 2002. Around two thirds of the
additional power (22,563 MW) is slated to come from hydroelectric power
plants. New gas-fired power plants are supposed to contribute 13% (4,680
MW), the same percentage as that to be generated by coal fired power
plants (4,350 MW). New nuclear power plants with a total installed capacity
of 1,800 MW (5%) are planned3. Finally, renewable sources of energy are
supposed to account for more than 4% (1,500 MW) of the overall newly
installed capacity. The planned expansion will cost approximately US$ 30
billion. In view of Pakistan's high national debt and persistent budget deficit,
the government is intensifying its efforts to attract private investors.

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 Power sector development in Pakistan

CONCLUSION
In Pakistan the current energy crisis stems from the decline in hydro sources
of energy and over reliance on the expansive source of electricity. Presently,
oil-based thermal plants accounts for 68% of generating capacity,
hydroelectric plants for 30% and nuclear plants for only 2%
This has led to a huge generation costs, which in turn adversely affect the
economy over the past eight years. Rise in the oil prices pushing electricity
tariff very high. As a result, manufacturing costs and inflation are at the
rising trend, export competitiveness is eroded and the pressure on the
balance of payments is increasing. These factors adversely affect the present
growth trajectory of the economy.

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