INDUSTRI PERUNGGASAN INDONESIA

DALAM ERA PASAR AEC 2015: PELUANG DAN

TANTANGAN

Dr. Ir. Arief Daryanto, M.Ec.

Direktur, Program Pascasarjana Manajemen dan Bisnis IPB (MBIPB)

Seminar Nasional Membangun Perunggasan Indonesia yang

Berdayasaing dan Berkelanjutan dalam Era AEC , Auditorium
Fapet UGM Yogyakarta,
15 November 2014

Presentation Outline
Introductory Remarks
Konteks Persaingan: ASEAN Economic
Community (AEC) 2015
Faktor Penentu Industri Perunggasan di
Era Global
Tantangan dan Peluang Industri
Perunggasan di Era AEC 2015
Strategi Menghadapi Persaingan di Era
AEC 2015

INTRODUCTORY REMARKS

INTRODUCTORY REMARKS

KONTEKS PERSAINGAN: ASEAN

ECONOMIC COMMUNITY 2015

Figure 1. Regional Economic Integration

Process whereby
countries in a
geographic region
cooperate to either
reduce or
eliminate barriers
to the free flow of
products, people,
or capital
Source: Wild and Wild,
2013

Click to edit Master text styles

Second level

Third level

Fourth level

Fifth level

Table 1. Levels of Regional Integration

Political Union

Economic Union

Common Market

Customs Union

Free-Trade Area

Source: Wild and Wild,

2013

Coordinate aspects of members economic

and political systems
Remove barriers to trade, labor, and capital,
set a common trade policy against
nonmembers, and coordinate members
economic
Remove allpolicies
barriers to trade, labor, and
capital
among members, and set a common trade
policy against nonmembers
Remove all barriers to trade among members
&
set a common trade policy against
Remove
all barriers to trade among
nonmembers
members, but each country has own
policies for nonmembers

Table 2. Effects of Integration

Potential
benefits

Potential
drawbacks

Trade creation

Trade diversion

Greater consensus

Shifts in employment

Political cooperation

Loss of sovereignty

Creates jobs

Source: Wild and Wild,

2013

Figure 2. AEC Scorecard

Table 3. The Ten ASEAN Member Countries

(Competitive markets of over 600 million people)
GDP per capita (US$):
2012

2011

1.

Brunei Darussalam

2.

Indonesia

3.

Malaysia

4.

Philippines

5.

Singapore

6.

7.

50,790
6,728

13,385

50,000
4,700
15,800

3,383

4,100

49,754

60,500

Thailand

7,907

9,500

Cambodia

1,818

2,200

10

Framework of Analysis
Wanted RICH ASEAN: Resilient,
Inclusive, Competitive and Harmonious
ASEAN
Not AFTA: Agree First Talk After

FAKTOR PENENTU INDUSTRI PERUNGGASAN

DALAM ERA GLOBAL

Faktor Penentu: Sisi Permintaan (1)

Permintaan komoditas dan produk peternakan
terus meningkat Pertumbuhan penduduk,
pertumbuhan pendapatan, semakin banyaknya
penduduk kelas menengah, urbanisasi, harapan
hidup semakin besar dan penduduk usia tua
Diversifikasi menuju produksi komoditas
bernilai tinggi (high-value production)
Revolusi Peternakan dan Revolusi Putih
Pola pengeluaran makanan yang bergeser
dari biji-bijian dan makanan pokok ke sayur-mayur,
buah, daging, susu, telur dan ikan
Pergeseran selera dari daging merah ke daging putih
Harga komoditas dan produk unggas yang paling
murah dibandingkan dengan daging lainnya

Faktor Penentu: Sisi Permintaan (2)

Permintaan terhadap makanan siap masak
dan siap saji semakin meningkat
Pertumbuhan yang pesat supermarket,
hypermarket dan QSRs (quick service
restaurants)
Kebijakan pemerintah terkait keamanan
pangan (food safety)

Faktor Penentu: Sisi Penawaran

Perkembangan ilmu pengetahuan dan teknologi
Investasi pertanian yang menurun dan salah
alokasi (under investment and mis-investment
phenomenon)
Industrialisasi dan scaling up (konsolidasi usaha)
Economies of scale
Peningkatan nilai tambah Integrasi vertikal
Integrasi vertikal Model Contract farming dan
Grow-out
Konversi lahan, degradasi lahan, erosi tanah dan
kelangkaan air
Keterbatasan infrastruktur dan logistik
Sumberdaya alam yang terbatas (FCRs unggas
lebih rendah)

Faktor Penentu: Sisi Kebijakan

Liberalisasi perdagangan
Stabilisasi dan penyesuaian struktural
Kebijakan makro, perdagangan dan sektoral
Kebijakan subsidi di negera maju, khususnya di
negara-negara OECD

Gambar 3. Kompleksitas (Tali Temali) Faktor Penentu Daya Saing

Pertanian
Kebijakan

Kebijakan Perdagangan
Kebijakan Pertanian
Kebijakan Biofuel/Energi
Regulasi Keamanan Pangan
Kriteria Berkelanjutan

Faktor Penawaran
Lahan Pertanian
Produksi(output/ha)
Manajemen Usahatani
Harga Input Usahatani
Cuaca
Hama dan Penyakit

Daya Saing Pertanian

Faktor-faktor Lainnya
Pembiayaan
Aktivitas
Nilai Tukar
Tarif Angkutan
Harga Minyak Mentah
Spesifikasi Teknis
Spekulasi dan Sentimen Pasar
Masuknya Pasar Baru Non-Agri

Faktor
Permintaan
Pakan
Pangan
Biofuels
Industri Pengolahan

Gambar 4. Tantangan Utama: Produksi Lebih Banyak

Dengan
Sedikit Input

Permintaan yang
meningkat :

9 milyar orang

Perubahan pola makan

Diet yang lebih baik

Penggunaan biofuel

Kapasitas yang
menurun :

Berkurangnya
lahan/berkurangnya
lahan yang baik

Perubahan iklim

Sumber: David Green, Greenhouse Communications, Virginia dan Economist

Magazine, 2011

Gambar 5. Per Capita Chicken Meat Consumption Growth

with Per Capita GDP in Selected Countries 2011/2012

Source: Rabobank, 2012

Figure 6. Rising Income Changes Consumption Pattern

Source: Rabobank, 2013

Figure 7. Meat Production and Real Prices Trends

Click to edit Master text styles

Second level

Third level

Fourth level

Fifth level

Source: Meat Atlas, 2014

Figure 8. Worldwide Meat Production

Click to edit Master text styles
Second level

Third level

Fourth level

Fifth level

Source: Meat Atlas, 2014

Figure 9. Demand of Meat in Developing

Countries is Rising Steeply
Click to edit Master text styles
Second level

Third level

Fourth level

Fifth level

Source: Meat Atlas, 2014

Figure 10. Growth in the Supermarket

Fridges

Figure 11. Counting the Animals

Click to edit Master text styles
Second level

Third level

Fourth level

Fifth level

Source:
The
Economist,
2011

Australia

Figure 12. Country Shares of Global Chicken Meat

Consumption

Source: Foreign Agricultural Service 2014b

Australia

Figure 13. Comparison of Global Chicken Meat

Consumption and Production, 2012

Source: a. Foreign Agricultural Service 2014b (consumption) b. Food and Agriculture

Organisation (Production)

Australia

Figure 14. Country Shares of Global Chicken Meat

Production

Sumber: Food and Agriculture Organisation

Australia

Figure 15. Per Capita Chicken Meat Consumption

for Selected Countries, 2012

Source: a. Foreign Agricultural Service 2014b (consumption) b. World Bank (Population)

Figure 16. Expectation of Higher Growth in

Consumption

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Credit Suisse

Estimates

Figure 17. Chicken is Indonesias Favorite Meat:

Indonesia Meat Consumption Breakdown

Source: Indonesia Central Statistical Bureau

Figure 18. Sunny Days for

Indonesian Broiler Sector

Figure 19. Genetic Selection Criteria

Source: Laughlin, K et al
(2007)

Figure 20. Significant Technological Changes

in the Chicken Industry

Source: Aho, 2012

In 1975, it took 64.1 days and 4.66 kg of feed to grow a chicken

to 2 kg.
In 2011, it took just 35 days and as little as 3.4 kg of feed
(ACMF, 2011)

Figure 21. Efficiency Improvements in Australian

Chicken Meat Production

Source: Australian Chicken Meat Federation 2011

Figure 22. Converting Feed into Meat

Source: Australian Chicken Meat Federation

2014

Figure 23. Animal Feed Raw Material Consumption

2010

Source: Association of Animal Feed Producers (GPMT)

Figure 24. Livestock Industries Throughout the

Supply Chain

Farming
input

Breeders
Animal feed

Farming
input
Livestock
Poultry
Abattoirs

Manufacturin
g
Processed
foods,
cosmetics,
personal care,
chemicals etc.

Logistic

Source: World Food Security Summit 2014

Packaging
and
distribution
Warehousing
Repackaging
Cold room

Retail Food
services
Supermarkets,
groceries,
restaurants,
hotels

TANTANGAN DAN PELUANG

INDUSTRI PERUNGGASAN KE
DEPAN

Challenges in Poultry Industry (1)

The global industry is in crisis: Import growth slowing down and much more
competition

Traditional exporters (e.g., US, Brazil, Argentina, Thailand) continue to grow

while a global recession is underway

Traditional importers (e.g., Russia and China) are becoming self sufficient due
to food security concerns

AEC has become a greater target for the developed world doesnt want
(CLQs)

Challenges for Poultry Industry (2)

Availability and price volatility of feed
ingredients consolidation or integration?

Threat of Bird Flu (AI) High vulnerability to

disease outbreak
Volatility of cash flow
Large wet market and small penetration of
processed chicken
Limited monitoring and coordination of supply
[Fragmented]

Challenges for Poultry Industry (3)

Difficult financing of working capital
Threats of CLQ import
Insufficient supply of infrastructure (cold chain,
transportation etc)
Availability of land
Lack of promotion [FAT]
Inefficient government bureaucracy
Policy inconsistency in the era of regional
autonomy

Opportunities for Poultry Indonesia (1)

Growth in domestic demand to
continue: 15-20% [broiler]
Indonesias low per capita
consumption provides ample potential
for growth
Chicken is the cheapest source of
protein
Price risk is shifting from farmer to
integrator [Contract Farming]

Opportunities for Poultry Indonesia (2)

Constantly upgrades technology and
skill set of farmers
Wet market share to decline more
value added
Opportunity for FDI (Foreign Direct
Investment)

STRATEGI MENGHADAPI
PESAINGAN DALAM ASEAN
ECONOMIC COMMUNITY 2015

Table 4. Global Competitiveness Index:

Indonesia vs ASEAN, 2013
Countries

CHANGE
20132014

2014
Out of
144

2013
Out f 148

Change
20122013

2012
Out of
144

2011
Out of
142

CHANGE
2011 2012

2. Malaysia

+4

20

24

+1

25

21

-4

3. Thailand

+6

31

37

+1

38

39

+1

+4

34

38

46

-4

5. Philippines

+7

52

59

+6

65

75

+10

6. Vietnam

+2

68

70

+5

75

65

-10

7. Cambodia

-7

95

88

-3

85

97

+12

8. Myanmar

+5

134

139

1. Singapore

4.
Indonesia

+12 50

Source: World Economic

Forum, 2014

Table 5. Ease of Doing Business Ranking:

Indonesia vs ASEAN, 2014
Countries

Dealing
Trading
Ease of Startin
Protecti
Enforcin Resolvin
w/
Getting Registeri
Doing
ga
Getting
ng
Paying
g
g
Construc Electricit
ng
Across
Busine Busine
Credit Investor Taxes
Contract Insolvenc
tion
y
Property
Border
ss Rank
ss
s
s
y
Permits
s

Singapore

28

12

Malaysia

16

43

21

35

36

30

42

Thailand

18

91

14

12

29

73

12

70

24

22

58

Vietnam

99

109

29

156

51

42

157

149

65

46

149

108

170

99

33

121

86

128

131

42

114

100

Philippines

Indone 12 17
sia
0 5 88 121 101 86 52 137 54 147 144
Cambodia

137

184

161

134

118

42

80

65

114

162

163

Myanmar

182

189

150

126

154

170

182

107

113

188

155

59

137

46

29

116

55

115

20

39

161

48

159

85

96

140

76

159

187

119

161

104

189

Brunei
Laos

Source: World Bank,

2014

Figure 25. Managing Animal Protein Value Chain

Feed

By-product
Feed
formulation
Raw-material
buying

Breeding

Production
efficiency

Farming

Production
efficiency

Processing Consumer

Passing price
changes on to
customer

High and volatile prices consolidation and

integration?
Market intelligence and efficiency
Price and exchange rate volatility raw material
buying, hedging?
Financing
Source: Rabobank, 2012

Figure 26. Determinants of Poultry Industry

Competitiveness
Grain availability
Investment in technology

Value chain improvement

& Market intelligence

Human capital
& Managerial expertise

Political influence, Regulatory env. & Trade policie

Poultry
Competitiveness

Financing

Sanitary status,
Food safety

Infrastructure &
Cold chain marketimg

Integrated Production
System
Firm strategy:
Consolidation, Integration

Gambar 27. Strategi Pembangunan Peternakan

dan Kesehatan Hewan
REVITALISASI
PERSUSUAN

MEMENUHI KEBUTUHAN

PANGAN ASAL
TERNAK
SAPI /KERBAU

1.

PSDSK

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

Peningkatan
kuantitas dan
kualitas benih/bibit

KAMBING-DOMBA

Peningkatan
produksi ternak

AYAM/ITIK

Peningkatan
produksi pakan
ternak

BABI/ANEKA TERNAK

Pengendalian dan
penanggulangan
penyakit hewan
Penjaminan pangan
asal hewan yang
ASUH
Peningkatan
koordinasi dan
dukungan
manajemen
RESTRUKTURISASI
PERUNGGASAN

DAGING

AYAM
ANEKA TERNAK

TELUR

ITIK

SAPI
KAMBING

SUSU

Gambar 28. Kerangka Desain Strategi Induk Pembangunan

Pertanian
2013-2045

Sumber: Kementerian Pertanian,2013

CONCLUDING REMARKS: LEADERSHIPS

The pessimist complain about the

wind;
the optimist expects it to change;
the leaders adjusts the sails.
-William Arthur Ward
Orang pesimis mengeluhkan angin;
Orang optimis berharap agar angin berubah;
Pemimpin menyesuaikan layar.

TERIMAKASIH

adaryant@mb.ipb.ac.id