Risk based Asset Integrity Management (RAIM)

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Risk based Asset Integrity Management (RAIM) - Overview

What is Risk based Asset Integrity Management
Risk Based Integrity Management procedure
Risk-Ranking of Structure Qualitative
Probability of Failure Categorisation
Consequence of Failure Categorisation
Risk Ranking Quantitative
Risk based design
Risk based inspection
Risk based repair -- Cost-Benefit Analysis
Analysis Types
Structural Failure Probability Calculation for Storm Case
General Structural Failure Probability Calculation
Progressive Collapse Analysis
Ship Impact Analysis
Typical FE analysis For a Semi sub Global Model
Fine mesh FE model for the critical central K node
Fine mesh FE model for Pontoon column intersection
Solid FE model of tubular joint
Corrosion/Strength: Probabilistic Methods

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Risk based Asset Integrity Management (RAIM) Overview

Asset Integrity
Management

Asset
Replacement
Planning

Risk Based
Design

Condition
Assessment

Remnant Life
Fitness for Purpose
Extended Life
On-line Monitoring
Strong Vibration

Inspection Planning

Risk centered
maintenance

Risk Based Inspection Planning

Inspection Scheduling

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What is Risk based Asset Integrity

Management

An integrated service that considers all facets of a facility or

installation to establish, manage and optimize the through life
risk profile.

Risk based design

Risk based inspection

Risk based repair

Risk centered maintenance

Benefit

Optimise total cost of maintenance

Quantification of risk levels

Reduce disruption to operations

Supports Asset change of use / life extension / resale

Long term reliability, safety and reduced operating cost

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Risk Based Integrity Management

procedure
Inspection, Replacement, Corrosion
Management Schemes

Mitigation

Operation controls, Redesign

Risk Ranking

Severity
Categories
Likelihood Categories

Definitions

Safety
Criteria/Req/Rules

Analysis
Inspection/FR
Data
Statistical
Analysis

Reliability
Prediction

FE Analysis

System/Design
Modelling

FTA/FMEA/CCA

Fracture/Fatigue
Assessment

Hazard I.D. & Analysis

HAZOP/FFA

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Risk-Ranking of Structure - Qualitative

Structure
Determine Consequence
of Failure

Likelihood of failure

Determine Likelihood of
Structural Failure

Consequence

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Probability of Failure Categorisation

Cat

Annual Probability

Description

Quantitative

Event

Team Experience

>10-2

Almost certain

The event could

occur at some time

The team know several

occurrence in recent
months

10-3 to 10-2

probable

The event could

occur at some time

It is a occurrence in the
industry in the last year.

10-4 to 10-3

Possible

The event could

occur at some time

The team know a few

occurrence but not in the
last few years

10-5 to 10-4

Unlikely

The event could

occur at some time

Only few occurrence are

known of in the experiences
of the team

<10-5

Rare

The event may

occur in exceptional
circumstances

The team has never heard

such event occurring in
Hess or in the industry

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Consequence of Failure Categorisation

Consequence of
Failure

Environment damage
Member
characteristics

Asset loss

Business
interruption

Safety

Cat

Qualitative

catastrophe

Essential members
to the integrity of the
system

Extensive damage
>100 million USD

100 days

Multiple fatality (or

permanent total
disabilities)

Massive effect, large scale (10

100 mile2) long term impact

Major

Essential members
to the operational
performance of the
system

Major damage 10
-100 million USD

10 days

1 fatality (or
permanent total
disability)

major effect, medium scale (1 10

mile2) medium term impact (years)

Considerable

Non-Essential
members but failure
can impede the
performance of the
system.

Local damage 110 million USD

3 days

Major injury /illness,

permanent partial
disability or lost time
injury (>4 days)

Local effect, medium scale (1 10

mile2) medium term impact
(months),

significant

Redundant member
through mitigation

Minor damage 0.1

- 1 million USD

1 day

Minor injury/illness,
restricted duties or lost
time injury (<4 days)

Minor effect, localised scale (< 1

mile) short term impact (months),

Insignificant

Redundant
members

Slight damage
<0.1 million USD

General

< 1 day

Slight injury/illness,
first aid or medical
treatment case

Slight effect, localised scale

immediate area temporary impact
(days)

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Consequence from damage to reputation is to be implicitly considered in each of the above categories.

Risk Ranking Quantitative

Consequence of failure

Probability of failure

Production loss
Contractual penalty
Negative publicity
Cost of repairing
Threat to public health, environment

Probabilistic fracture mechanics including

fatigue, corrosion, POD, etc.
Extreme statistics analysis
Final fracture or collapse probability
Failure frequency, QRA, HAZOP

Probability of failure
Low
Consequence
of failure

Moderate

High

High
Moderate
Low

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Risk based design

Most of current offshore standards set the probability of failure to be

between 10-5 and 10-4
Codes and standards are based on generic cases
Risk based design can be used
Probability of failure is based on specific case hence more economic
Develop Safety factors for specific site condition to achieve the same level of risk as in
standards
Calculate the level of risk for investment decisions

Risk reduction --- lower overall risks with the same investment
Cost reduction -- efficient use of resources for the same target risk level

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Risk based inspection

Risk Based Inspection (RBI) uses risk techniques to focus inspection

resources, as part of AIMS
The RBI process defines
where to inspect

More inspection on higher risk items

Less inspection on low risk items

when to inspect

Time interval based on risk prediction

how to inspect

It is updateable based upon inspection findings

It is an ongoing process used throughout the life cycle of the facility
RBI Benefit
Risk reduction --- lower overall risks with the same inspection resources
Cost reduction -- efficient use of inspection resources for the same target
risk level
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Risk based Repair -- Cost-Benefit Analysis

Assessment of different
remediation options to
determine most optimal
action

2.

Focused on capital and

revenue protection

Total Cost

Optimal
Cost

1.

Remediation
Cost

Failure
Cost

Do nothing

Do everything

Remediation Alternative

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Analysis Types

1.

Linear analysis for ULS, FLS code checking

2.

Structural failure probability analysis

3.

Non-linear Progressive Collapse (push over) Analysis

4.

Finite Element Analysis

5.

Advanced Fatigue Analysis

6.

Fracture Mechanics

7.

Corrosion Engineering

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Structural Failure Probability Calculation

for Storm Case
- Quantitative

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General Structural Failure Probability

Calculation

Requiring Pushover analysis to

determine failure

Failure Probability Calculation

Best estimates applied for all

quantities

Uncertainties represented
explicitly

FE analysis may be required

Total risk can be reduced through

Reserve Strength
Mean Resistance

Mean Load

Frequency

Failure

S S

R R

Load

Resistance
Value

1. Load Reduction
2. Strengthening
3. Reduction in uncertainties
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Progressive Collapse Analysis for Design

Against Fire
Non-linear structural response analysis is
used in fire response analysis to consider
thermal expansion effects, the degradation of
material strength with increased temperature,
and the structural progressive collapse under
fire.
The results of advanced fire response analysis
may be used to develop an optimised scheme
of passive fire protection for the structure.
Potential savings for a typical offshore
structure are in the range of 50% of the
original scope

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Ship Impact Analysis

Conventional single member analyses only

utilise the energy dissipating capacity of the
impacted member.
The progressive collapse analysis takes into
account all the energy dissipation mechanisms
and therefore is able to provide a more realistic
estimate of the resistance (or survivability) of
the platform to ship collision. Thus a more
optimal design or more realistic risk assessment
can be achieved.
Utilising advanced analysis, a number of impact
scenarios can be analysed quickly. This is
especially useful at the design stage.
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Typical FE analysis For a Semi sub Global

Model

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Fine mesh FE model for the critical central

K node

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Fine mesh FE model for Pontoon column

intersection

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Solid FE model of tubular joint

Tubulars are modelled with solid
brick elements in several layers
across the thickness for accurate
determination of local hot spot
stresses

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Corrosion/Strength: Probabilistic Methods

T y p ic a l L o g - N o r m a l C o r r o s io n R a t e D is t r ib u t io n

Probability De nsity Function

12

10

4
M in . V a lu e
( 5 % o f N o n - Ex c e e d a n c e )

2
M a x . V a lu e
( 9 5 % o f N o n - Ex c e e d a n c e )

0
0 .0

0 .1

0 .2

0 .3

0 .4

0 .5

0 .6

C o r r o s io n R a t e ( m m / ye a r )

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