Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Agenda
1.
2.
3.
Success Stories
4.
Where to Start ?
customer
and connect seamlessly
with their ecosystem
Big data
Sensors
and devices
Percentage
of uncertain
data
Social
We are here
Cloud
Mobile
Social
media
Analytics
VoIP
Enterprise
data
2013
2015
Analytics-Centered Tomorrow
Data
about
Things
Data
about
People
Transformation
All Data
Data
about
Money
2006
2008
2010
2012
2013
Technology factors
Market factors
Macro-economic factors
People skills
Regulatory concerns
Socio-economic factors
Globalization
Environmental issues
Geopolitical factors
Source: Question E8What are the most important external forces that will impact the enterprise over the next 3 to 5 years?; n=884 [CEO only]
CFO
CHRO
CIO
CMO
CSCO
Technology factors
Market factors
Macro-economic factors
People skills
Regulatory concerns
Socio-economic factors
Globalization
Environmental issues
Geopolitical factors
Source: Question E8What are the most important external forces that will impact the enterprise over the next 3 to 5 years?; n=4,009
Transaction Systems
12
What should
we be doing?
Why?
Warehouses
(Relational & OLAP)
Flat, Legacy
or Modern
External
Sources
Manage Risk
Advance analytics
Accountable
Leadership
Functions
Decisions
Information
Business team
C
Information
Market
Performance management
organization
Performance enabling
organization
2013 IBM Corporation
Leverage trusted
information to understand
the state of the business
II
III
19
2013 IBM Corporation
BACK OFFICE
AGENT OF
INTEGRATION
FRONT OFFICE
Cross-channel
commerce,
fulfillment
Finance
Finance
Cross-channel
commerce,
fulfillment
IT
IT
Sales
Sales
CFO
Procurement
sourcing
CFO
Marketing
promotions
Customer
service, case
management
HR
Procurement
sourcing
Marketing
promotions
HR
Customer
service, case
management
KEY CHARACTERISTICS
Weave analytics into
the fabric of the
enterprise
Streamline and
automate analytics
Optimize analytics,
executing in
its ideal location
Continually move
talent to highest value
activities
Challenge
CHALLENGE
Corporate expansion through acquisitions and organic
growth resulted in lack of visibility and consistency.
SOLUTION
Solution
Implemented planning to achieve quick, high-impact
results focused on sales and order/refresh process
Incorporated customer and product-level plans into
a 12-month rolling forecast for greater visibility
Results
CHALLENGE
RESULTS
21
The need:
Petrol d.d. wanted to use historical and transactional data from its retail
stores to improve sales, but its analytics environment could not manage
the required query volumes or complexity.
The solution:
With an IBM DB2 Analytics Accelerator for z/OS appliance
boosting IBM Cognos software query performance, Petrol store
employees access product sales data to more effectively suggest-sell at
the point of sale.
The benefit:
Helps increase sales in retail stores
Solution components:
IBM DB2 Analytics
Accelerator for z/OS
IBM Cognos Controller
IBM SPSS Modeler
ZSP03693-USEN-00
22
CHALLENGE
Challenge
Previous systems no support for multiple channels and
indvidual country requirements
Data models not consistent on a global basis
Needed a consistent application of agency incentives
SOLUTION
Solution
23
Point of Impact
Operating Plan
Execution
Finance
Cross-channel
commerce,
fulfillment
IT
Product &
Marketing
Propensity to
buy
Sales
ACTIONABLE INSIGHT
Opportunities
Customer needs
Customer behaviors
Risk factors
Competitive threats
Foresight
Procurement
sourcing
Marketing
promotions
HR
Predictive
Demand
Planning/Forec
asting
Customer
service, case
management
II
KEY CHARACTERISTICS
Consistently apply analytical
rigor to new and emerging
data sources
Example outcomes:
II
III
MODEL
MODEL
MODEL
Internal
levers
External
opportunities
CFO
C-SUITE
MODEL
MODEL
KEY CHARACTERISTICS
Clearly understand
value and risk
drivers
28
Rigorously and
continuously realign
resources to new
opportunity
III
CHALLENGE
Challenge
Significantly reduce the profit at risk due to volatile
commodity input prices
Solution
SOLUTION
Collect and analyze sales plan data by customer and across
over 30,000 SKUs
Evaluate the resulting profit contribution of product input
in the bill of material
Results
RESULTS
Diagnosed profit improvement moves ahead of time;
commodity price increases can be passed on to consumers
or renegotiated with industrial customers
Conducted value engineering with operations to reformulate
flavors using commodities from different regions and suppliers
Recorded $56 million in cost savings from their
Comprehensive and Continuous Improvement program with
TM1 and Cognos
29
III
That is a mind-shift change. You can hold people accountable for the micro
outcomes as opposed to the top-level outcomes," Narayan says.
to action
Ambition
to action
Define
Success
Define
to
action
Metrics
Define
Actions
Translated
to action
Ambition
Define
Success
Define
toMetrics
action
Define
Actions
Translated
to action
LESS
MORE
Cost cutting
Calendar driven
Absolute KPIs
Controlling
Cost conscious
Event driven
Relative KPIs
Self Regulating
Ambition
Define
Success
Define
to
action
Metrics
Define
Actions
to action
to action
Compare what-if
scenarios
Investigation Reporting
Dashboards
Business Analytics
Assess and manage risk
Data Warehouses
Financial information strategy
Common worldwide
planning system
Single worldwide
consolidation system
Business Fin'l
Treasury
Mgmt.
Mgmt.
Planning
Info
Info
Corporate
Whse
Acctg
Consol
Geo
Whse
Single worldwide
financial information
warehouse (FIW)
Common information
Common geographic
mega-centers
Accounts
Payable
Assets
Manage
risk
Common ledger
Ledger
Employee
Disbursements
Intercompany
Accounts
Receivable
Common
transaction applications
Common
data definitions
Operational
efficiency
Business
insight
CFRS
Measure and
monitor behavior
Continuous Control
Monitoring
PRISM
Exhibits
attribute
Understand customer
sentiment and behavior
Attribute 17 Attribute 18
SEE
IBM Research
Predictive Analytics;
WWSpend; STAR
LEADSONLY
PILLAR
LEADSAND-LOAD
PILLAR
LOADONLY
PILLAR
Firm
LOADONLY
PILLAR
Sales
Performance
Management
Campaign
scorecard
Promotion
plan
Customer /
Product
profitability
Revenue
plan
Workforce
Operations
Ops KPIs
S&Op plan
Capacity &
Inventory
plan
Product
allocation
New
products
Operational
Performance
Management
Workforce
KPIs
Headcount
plan
Salary &
comp
Staffing plan
Training &
Development
Financial
Performance
Management
Finance
Long-term
plan
CapEx &
Working
capital
Cash flow
plan
EPS / DCF
projections
Risk
Reporting
Disclosure
Management &
Financial Close
2013 IBM Corporation
Likelihood of churn
Future lifetime value
Credit worthiness
Customer data
Transaction history
Predictive models
Profitability analysis
on retention,
performance
and patterns
Sales
Performance
Management
Operational
Performance
Management
Financial
Performance
Management
Change policy,
In-process decision
management
Disclosure
Management &
Financial Close
Where to start ?
Drive enterprise
agility
Quick Starts,
Proof of
Concepts &
Business Case
Development
Consulting,
implementation,
software
Lead a discipline
of performance
Performance Management
o Client Briefing 1 day
o Maturity Assessment - 1 wk
o Business Value Assessment 2 wks
o Performance reporting demo
Roadmap session 1 day
Finance Healthcheck
Revenue Management Diagnostic
Sales performance Management
Pilot
Predictive analytics
Financial analytics
o Performance reporting, dashboards
and KPIs
o Planning , budgeting, and forecasting
o Disclosure management and
financial close
Fraud and risk analytics
Talent and
change
management
Workforce analytics and optimization | Workforce and talent assessment | Workforce collaboration | Change management |
Culture transformation
Infrastructure
and systems
Business and IT services sourcing | Security | Business resilience | Application rationalization | Cloud and systems | Big data
Financing
Thank You
PM Diagnostic (BVA)
Domain Areas
Customer Analytics
(CCI)
Planning,
Budgeting &
Forecasting
Business
Analytics &
Reporting
(primary
focus on
TM1)
(core BI
primarily
Cognos)
Dashboards
& Scorecards
Financial Analytics
(CFO Dashboard)
(core BI
primarily
Cognos. Also
SPSS for
predictive)
Supply Chain
Analytics &
Dashboards
Human Capital
(Workforce)
Analytics
Industry Specific
Analytics (e.g.,
DSR)
2013 IBM Corporation
Risk
Management
Development
HR Resource
Management
Planning &
Forecasting
6.8
2.3
(0.5)
(0.7)
2.0
12.3
GF A/R + Others
Buyback
FCF (Ops)
13%
2.9
1.4
(1.5)
6.2
(0.6)
0.0
(0.6)
(0.1) (1.5)
3.5
0.3
21.7
23%
0.3
3.3
(2.8)
0.2
(3.0)
Change in CP Balance
4.4
17.5
37%
0.8
2.8
2.9
14.9
42%
1.0
12.9
15
Acquisition
4.3
2.7
13.7
IBM Cash
20
(4.1)
1.0
(5.1)
(0.1) (1.5)
0.0
(0.1)
(0.7)
(2.0)
(1.9)
(0.2) 12.0
0.0
(1.9)
(0.7)
(0.0) (2.0)
0.0
(0.3)
$B
Dividend
Acquisition
Dividend
(0.7)
GF A/R + Others
2.6
Buyback
FCF (Ops)
GF A/R + Others
Change in CP Balance
Acquisition
7.6
Change in CP Balance
Available GCF
Buyback
FCF (Ops)
Core Debt
9.6
Net Income
12.3
Total Equity 13.5
Core Debt to Cap 49%
CP
0.5
25
Dividend
GF A/R + Others
Acquisition
Dividend
Buyback
FCF (Ops)
Change in CP Balance
X </= $4,778
67%
Mean = $4,694M
2.5
10.0
10.0
3Q'09
4Q'09
10
4Q'08
0
2Q'05 3Q'05 4Q'05
1Q'06
1Q'07
1Q'08
40
51%
44%
28%
15%
Te rm D e bt M aturity
P rofile a s of M ay'0 9
2,900
3,000
2,000
35
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1Q'05 2Q'05 3Q'05 4Q'05 1Q'06 2Q'06 3Q'06 4Q'06 1Q'07 2Q'07 3Q'07 4Q'07 1Q'08 2Q'08 3Q'08 4Q'08 1Q'09
1 ,470
1,500
50%
Term Debt
10
1 ,242
1,042
1,000 1,005
1,000
5 10
500
321
500
6,000
21
64
F e b '1 0
M a r'1 0
A p r'1 0
M a y'1 0
J u n '1 0
138
5,000
4,000
$Million
Bank Debt
25
20
15
CP
30
USD
USD IGC
EUR
CHF
3,000
JPY
2,000
1,000
C u rrenc y
U SD
U SD I GC
EU R
JP Y
CHF
Tota l
2009
2010
20 09
65 1
4 ,531
0
0
0
5 ,182
2010
33
0
1,3 84
5 10
0
1,9 27
2011
201 1
1, 67 5
0
83 0
0
32 1
2, 82 6
2012
2012
1 ,400
1 ,500
0
0
0
2 ,900
2013
2 01 3
2,003
0
0
510
0
2,513
2014
20 14
0
64
1 ,038
204
0
1 ,306
2015
2 015
0
0
0
0
1 38
1 38
2016
201 6
0
0
0
0
0
0
2017
20 17
3 ,0 00
0
0
0
0
3 ,0 00
2018
2 01 8
1,60 0
0
0
0
0
1,60 0
2019
20 19
7 50
0
0
0
0
7 50
2020
2 020
0
0
0
0
0
0
2021
20 21
0
0
0
0
0
0
2022
2022
0
0
0
0
0
0
20 23
2 02 3
0
0
0
0
0
0
2024
2024
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.5
$40
($B)
Total
15 ,093
6 ,095
3 ,252
1 ,225
45 8
26 ,123
4%
3%
$15
US
TC + IIG
Others Countries
Total WWCash
7.3
1.5
2.0
10.8
Actual
2Q07 3Q07
7.0
1.2
2.0
10.2
10.6
1.0
2.3
13.8
4Q07
12.9
0.6
2.7
16.1
June 4, 2009
1Q08
Actual
2Q08
8.7
0.7
2.7
6.2
1.1
2.6
12.0
9.8
3Q08
6.8
0.1
2.9
9.8
Actual
4Q08
Actual
1Q09
8.0
1.7
3.2
8.2
1.1
2.9
12.9
12.3
2Q09
Projected
3Q09 4Q09
7.3
1.6
3.1
5.3
1.7
3.0
6.0
1.0
3.0
12.0
10.0
10.0
$10
1Q07
Cash
5%
3M Libor (QoQ)
$25
$20
Percentage (%)
>2024
> 20 24
3,9 82
0
0
0
0
3,9 82
6%
Total Debt
$35
$30
Total WWDebt
5.7
0.0
2.7
8.3
4.9
0.0
2.2
7.1
2.9
2.0
2.4
3.9
2.8
2.3
2.7
3.1
4.6
0.4
3.4
2.3
9.1
2.9
2.6
2.2
1.4
2.0
1.2
0.2
1.8
1.7
0.8
4.8
3.4
0.3
2.2
0.3
1.6
1.5
1.6
7.3
9.0
7.3
7.7
5.2
3.2
7.2
US
TC + IIG
1.6
1.5
2.1
1.2
7.6
(1.0)
8.9
(2.2)
6.0
(2.4)
1.6
0.8
3.8
(2.5)
6.6
(0.3)
7.0
0.9
6.5
(3.2)
1.9
1.4
3.8
0.7
Others Countries
(0.6)
(0.2)
(0.2)
0.4
(0.6)
0.2
0.7
1.4
1.2
1.5
1.5
1.4
2.5
3.1
6.5
7.1
2.9
2.6
2.1
7.7
9.1
4.8
5.2
4.8
4.1
5.9
2%
4.2
4.45
4.7
4.95
Liquidity< 3 Months
$5
5.2
$0
1%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Revenue ($B)
Consolidating and
analyzing data
from disparate
sources to
address
compliance
issues and
pinpoint risks
1Q'09
60%
Applying science
to the art of
opportunity
identification,
seller deployment
and prospecting
2Q'09
2,500
Debt ($B)
Values in 10^ -3
1Q'05
1.5
1Q'09
Simulating future
performance of
development
portfolio &
investment mix
2001
Using matching
engine to analyze
unstructured job
and resume
information to
identify best staff
for open positions
on projects
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
World wide
Predicting and
optimizing
performance by
analyzing
productivity and
pipeline
Territory Optimization
Program (TOP)
Smarter Enterprise
Enablement
Client-level view of
opportunity for resource
allocation
Optimization of sales
territories for individual
sellers
STAR
Proactive Retention
PRISM
Statistical revenue
forecasting
Optimization of investments
in employee retention
40
Agenda
1.
2.
3.
Beyond Performance
Management
Success Stories
4.
5.
IBMs Response
Where to Start ?
Cognitive
How can we learn dynamically?
Innovate in descriptive,
predictive, prescriptive and
cognitive systems
Develop Interactive Analytics
with unparalleled user interaction
solving key business problems
Provide people-centric, task and
workflow-based solutions
enabling collaboration
IBM Branded
Big Data &
Analytics
Platform
Prescriptive
How can we achieve the best outcome?
Predictive
What could happen?
Descriptive
What has happened?
Business Value
Information Layer
How is data managed and stored?
Agenda
1.
2.
3.
Beyond Performance
Management
Success Stories
4.
5.
IBMs Response
Where to Start ?
Automotive Business
Path to Finance Transformation
Process Maps
Automotive Value
Driver Trees
Revenue Growth
2.1 Plan
Production
and Service
Delivery
Forecast
Accuracy
Product
Availability
Configuration Management
and
Automotive 10.1 Change
Tree
Process Value Driver
On-time Delivery
Revenue
Manage Information
Technology
Return on Assets
Manage Finance
Service
Manage Human
Resources
Plan Effectiveness
Operational
Process
Downtime
Gross Margin
Inputs
Number of Changes in
Product Life Cycle
Logistics DollarsInventory
/ Vehicles
Carrying Cost
Percent of
FTL
Days of Supply
Inventory
Sell
Service
Manage Finance
Build
Build
Design
Research &
Design
Development
Research &
Service
Development
Percent of Backhaul
Time to Market
2.2 Manage
Inbound
Logistics
Research &
Sell
Development
Inventory
Inputs
Build
Design
Fixed Assets
Time
DownTime
Design Response
Effectiveness
Total Supply Chain
Customer Demands
Manage Finance
Manage Finance
Manage Finance
Automotive Business
Process Maps
Process
Maps
Accounts Receivable
Service
Build
Service
Sell
Design
Sell
Build
Build
Accounts Payable
Build
Design
Accounts Receivable
Fixed Assets
Design
1.5 Develop
Product and
Processes
Customer Retention
Adherence to Design Goals
Automotive Value
Driver Trees
Industry
Value Driver
Operational
Vehicle Quality Design Effectiveness
Time
to Market
Drivers
Key
Performance Indicators
Design Failure Mode and Effects
Analysis
(DFMEA)
Share of Customer
Selling, General and Administrative
Expense Spend
Process Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Customer Focus Ratings
Customer Satisfaction
(PFMEA) Part/Tool Commonality
Vehicle Cost
Scrap/Rework
Customer Retention
Feature
Availability
Time to Market
Carrying Cost
Inventory
Vehicle Architecture Commonality
Engineering Effectiveness
Production Plan
Adherence
Gross Margin
Process
Quality
Vehicle Quality
Time to Market
Adherence
to Design Goals
Selling, General, and Administrative
Expense
Inventory Days of SupplyDesign Effectiveness
Sourcing Effectiveness
Failure Selling,
Mode and
Effects
Analysis
Change Over Cost / Time Vehicle Quality
Engineering Effectiveness
General
and
Administrative Expense
TimeDesign
to Market
(DFMEA)
Time to Market
Total Delivery Costs
Part/Tool Commonality
Down
Time
Pricing Effectiveness
Process Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Process
Quality Vehicle Cost
Quality
Advanced Product
Vendor Print/Unit
(PFMEA)
Vehicle Architecture Commonality
Man Hours / Vehicle
1.5 Develop
Return onTiming
Assetsand
Number of Changes
Inventory
Product and
Processes
1.6 Manage
Supplier
10.2 ManageRelationship
Configurations
Percent of Change
Process Quality
and Administrative
Selling, General,Pricing
Effectiveness
Feature Availability
Forecast Effectiveness
Expense
1.6 Manage
Supplier
Relationship
Return on Assets
Profitability / Growth
Manage Finance
Manage Information
Technology
Perform
portfolio
analysis Activities
and Tasks
Illustrative
mapping
for revenue
performance
Sell
Share ofgaps
customerKey
spendPerformance
Update portfolio
ManageAutomotive
portfolio
IndicatorsService
1.7 Validate
Product and
Process
Selling,
General,
and Administrative
Supplier Delivery
On-time
Performance
Expense
Total Supply Chain Response Time
Operational
Order Fulfillment
Engineering Leadtime
Effectiveness
1.5 Develop
Product and
Processes
Operational
Vehicle Quality Design Effectiveness
Time
to Market
Drivers
Key
Performance Indicators
Design Failure Mode and Effects
Analysis
(DFMEA)
Share of Customer
Selling, General and Administrative
Expense Spend
Process Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Customer Focus Ratings
Customer Satisfaction
Part/Tool Commonality
(PFMEA)
Engineering Effectiveness
Production Plan
Adherence
Gross Margin
Process
Quality
Vehicle Cost
Scrap/Rework
Feature
Availability
Inventory
Carrying Cost
Customer Retention
Time to Market
Vehicle Architecture Commonality
Effectiveness
Time to Market
Adherence
to Design Goals
Selling, General, and Administrative
Expense
Sourcing Effectiveness
Change Over Cost / Time Vehicle Quality
Engineering Effectiveness
Configurations
Product and
Processes
Part/Tool Commonality
Time to Market
Down
Time
Pricing Effectiveness
Process
Quality
Advanced Product
Quality
Feature Availability
Number of Changes
Late in
Engineering Process
Vehicle
1.6 Manage
Supplier
Relationship
Failure Selling,
Mode and
Effects
Analysis
General
and
Administrative Expense
TimeDesign
to Market
(DFMEA)
Total Delivery Costs
Part/Tool Commonality
Process Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Vendor Print/Unit
(PFMEA)
Vehicle Architecture Commonality
Quality
Selling,
General, Time
and
Administrative
Expense
Design
Failure Mode
and Effects Analysis
Total Supply Chain
Response
(DFMEA)
Time to Market
Inventory Days of Supply
Process Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Total Delivery Costs (PFMEA)
Part/Tool Commonality
Forecast Accuracy Vendor Print/Unit Time to Market
Cost of
Goods Sold
Change
Over, Cost/Time
Sourcing Effectiveness
Design Effectiveness
SupplyTime
Chain Effectiveness
Down
Engineering Effectiveness
1.7 Validate
Product and
Process
Vehicle Cost
Percent of Change
Engineering Efficiency
1.6 Manage
Supplier
Relationship
Return on Assets
Part Supplier
Quality Delivery
On-time
Performance
Selling,
General,
and Administrative Expense
Supply Chain Response
Time
Time
to Market
Time to Total
Market
Inventory
Days of Supply
Total Delivery Costs
Selling, General, and Administrative
Expense
Pricing Effectiveness
Vendor Print/Unit
Number of Engineering Part/Tool
Changes Commonality
Forecast Effectiveness
Forecast Accuracy
Delivery
Copyright
IBM Corporation
2003 On-time Performance
Adherence to Design
Goals Supplier
Vehicle Cost
Cost of Goods Sold
Part Total
Quality
Supply Chain Response Time
Cost of Goods Sold
Supply Chain Effectiveness
Inventory Days of Supply
Design Effectiveness
Time to Market
Adherence to Design Goals
Vehicle Quality
Part/ToolExpense
Commonality
Engineering Effectiveness
Selling,
General,
and Administrative
Advance Product
Quality
Performance
1.7 Validate
Product and
Process
Forecast Effectiveness
Part Quality
Design for Manufacturing and Assembly
Production Validation
Testing to Design Goals
Vehicle Cost Cost of Goods Sold
Adherence
Quality Planning Sign-off and Management
Design Effectiveness
Time to Market
Cost of Goods Sold
Capital Efficiency
Support
Engineering Effectiveness
Vehicle Quality
Based on
opportunitys
ability to
help the
company
achieve its
strategic
goals
Matrix
Jan 2006
High
Jun 2006
Med
Low
Adherence
to Design
Goals
Selling,
General,
and Administrative Expense
1.7 Validate
Product and
Process
Project Plans
PROJECT BENEFITS
Architecture
Finance Data
Design
Integrated Reporting
Requirements
Metadata Design
Key
Performance
Indicators
Selling, General and
Administrative
Expense
Share of Customer Spend
Part/Tool Commonality
Customer Focus Ratings
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Driver Tree Automotive 1.0 Design (continued)
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Copyright IBM Corporation 2003
Engineering Process
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IBM Corporation
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2004 IBM Corporation
Select and evaluate supplier
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1.0 Design (continued)
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Order Fulfillment
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Incentives
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Vehicle Quality
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of Goods Sold
Quality Planning Sign-off and Management
Adherence to Design Goals
Support
High - complex to
implement and/or adopt
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Capital Efficiency
Medium
Roadmap
Used to align
KPIs withand
Roles, cascade to lower
Interdependencies
level scorecards, and
socialize design
Legend:
Integrated Design & Foundation
General Accounting, AP, FA
Management Reporting & Treasury
Data Sourcing
2005
Q4
Q3
2006
Q1
Q2
Mobilize PMO
2007
Q3
Program Management
Integrated
Q4
a
Q1
Q2
a
2008
Q3
Q4
a
Q1
a
Q2
Q3
Q4
a
Target Architecture
Interim Architecture
Finance
1 Requirements
Hyperion HFM/Analytics
Design and
Implementation
8
5AP & FA Design and Implementation
Factory
Common Source
FUNCTIONALITY
Environment
And Access
Data Acquisition Design
& Common COA valuesof Truth
Reference Technology
Architecture
Australia Post
Australias Largest Retailer Forecasts across 5000 stores with SPSS + TM1
Government agency uses IBMs SPSS software and TM1 software to improve agency payment forecasting.
Hamish Barwick (CIO)
Manual cash flow forecasts are a thing of the past for Australia Post with the
implementation of two software packages which crunch data to produce accurate daily,
monthly and annual forecasting reports.
Speaking at IBMs Information On Demand conference in Las Vegas, Australia Post
business analytics manager Armand Mizan told delegates that its manual forecasting took
weeks to produce and was not always accurate.
In addition, Australia Post staff had little visibility around movement of agency cash flows.
The company works as an agent on behalf of companies such as the Australian Tax Office
(ATO), telecommunications and utility providers. It receives payments for these companies
at 4500 retail outlets and online. These payments go through an Australia Post bank
account and are re-distributed back to the agency.
Lack of data scientists could derail big data projects: IBM[1]
In pictures: IBM Information On Demand day one[2]
According to Mizan, Australia Post processes $50 billion worth of agency payments per year.
To help the department overcome the problem of manual cash flow forecasting, it decided to implement IBMs SPSS predictive
analytics software and Cognos TM1 enterprise planning software.
We had a monthly cash flow model which was based on actual figures, he said.
This would then populate the daily cash flow through a translation. From that, the agency forecast model is produced through SPSS
and the results sent back out into TM1.
Cash optimisation
Reductions in Costs
In order to check and determine the accuracy of the information in SPSS, Australia Post took historical data from August to October
2011 and put it through the software to produce a forecast.
That forecast was compared to the actual data from 2011. We achieved an accuracy level of between 95 and 98 per cent using SPSS,
Mizan said.
Business outcomes
Australia Post now has fully integrated actuals and forecasted monthly cash flows for the next four years. The monthly and daily cash
flow models are also aligned.
There is also greater visibility of agency financial data, something which Mizan said the company did not have before.
Technical difficulties
However, Mizan admitted that the SPSS and TM1 project was not without its teething problems.
III
MODEL
MODEL
MODEL
Internal
levers
External
opportunities
CFO
C-SUITE
MODEL
MODEL
KEY CHARACTERISTICS
Clearly understand
value and risk
drivers
52
Rigorously and
continuously realign
resources to new
opportunity
Integrated Operations
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partnering
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53
Globally integrating
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Manage Risk
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Business Insight
Trusted Business Advisors
Use Cases
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WW Spend
STAR
Workforce Analytics
Coverage Optimization
BAO Revenue
(including SW, HW and services)
Smarter
Planet
Growth
Markets
Business
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and
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10%
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Cloud and
Next
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2009
2015
Includes software,
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Source: IBM Investor Relations, May 2010; $16B refers to cross-IBM revenue
including Software, Services and Systems.
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Improved!
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NEW!
NEW!
2013 IBM Corporation
In order to drive change one must first understand the starting point
IBM Finance Current Environment 2009
Risk
Management
Development
HR Resource
Management
Planning &
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6.8
2.3
(0.5)
(0.7)
2.0
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13%
2.9
1.4
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6.2
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2.5
10.0
10.0
3Q'09
4Q'09
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4Q'08
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2Q'05 3Q'05 4Q'05
1Q'06
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1Q'05 2Q'05 3Q'05 4Q'05 1Q'06 2Q'06 3Q'06 4Q'06 1Q'07 2Q'07 3Q'07 4Q'07 1Q'08 2Q'08 3Q'08 4Q'08 1Q'09
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2009
2010
20 09
65 1
4 ,531
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5 ,182
2010
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1,9 27
2011
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1, 67 5
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2, 82 6
2012
2012
1 ,400
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2013
2 01 3
2,003
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0
2,513
2014
20 14
0
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1 ,038
204
0
1 ,306
2015
2 015
0
0
0
0
1 38
1 38
2016
201 6
0
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2017
20 17
3 ,0 00
0
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3 ,0 00
2018
2 01 8
1,60 0
0
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1,60 0
2019
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7 50
0
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2020
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2021
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3.9
2.8
2.3
2.7
3.1
4.6
0.4
3.4
2.3
9.1
2.9
2.6
2.2
1.4
2.0
1.2
0.2
1.8
1.7
0.8
4.8
3.4
0.3
2.2
0.3
1.6
1.5
1.6
7.3
9.0
7.3
7.7
5.2
3.2
7.2
US
TC + IIG
1.6
1.5
2.1
1.2
7.6
(1.0)
8.9
(2.2)
6.0
(2.4)
1.6
0.8
3.8
(2.5)
6.6
(0.3)
7.0
0.9
6.5
(3.2)
1.9
1.4
3.8
0.7
Others Countries
(0.6)
(0.2)
(0.2)
0.4
(0.6)
0.2
0.7
1.4
1.2
1.5
1.5
1.4
2.5
3.1
6.5
7.1
2.9
2.6
2.1
7.7
9.1
4.8
5.2
4.8
4.1
5.9
2%
4.2
4.45
4.7
4.95
Liquidity< 3 Months
$5
5.2
$0
1%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Revenue ($B)
Consolidating and
analyzing data
from disparate
sources to
address
compliance
issues and
pinpoint risks
1Q'09
60%
Applying science
to the art of
opportunity
identification,
seller deployment
and prospecting
2Q'09
2,500
Debt ($B)
Values in 10^ -3
1Q'05
1.5
1Q'09
Simulating future
performance of
development
portfolio &
investment mix
2001
Using matching
engine to analyze
unstructured job
and resume
information to
identify best staff
for open positions
on projects
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
World wide
Predicting and
optimizing
performance by
analyzing
productivity and
pipeline
BENEFITS
SOLUTION
Increased visibility across
geographies and brands
allowed for cost control
optimizations
CHALLENGE
METHODOLOGY
Opportunity data from
EIW (i.e., Siebel)
Each opportunity detail is
modeled
Revenue data to
calibrate parameters
Quarterly transactional
revenue
Predict, based on
history, the Future
Yield due to
opportunities not yet
in the pipeline
Compute Probability of
Winning and Expected
Yield of each opportunity
using detailed EIW data
Load data
Provides value of
closed deals
ready to ship
Orders
Today
End of Quarter
LEADSONLY
PILLAR
LEADSAND-LOAD
PILLAR
LOADONLY
PILLAR
I-view
STAR1
STAR2
Delta to Actual
IBM Research
Wk 1
Wk 2
Wk 3
Wk 4
Wk 5
Wk 6
Wk 7
Wk 8
Wk 9
Wk 10 Wk 11 Wk 12 Wk 13
SOLUTION
Single global interface for
tracking services revenue
CHALLENGE
Insight gained with a discrete
view of revenue for each deal
under contract as well as a
portfolio of contracts.
Limits in Essbase meant using
manual spreadsheets compiled at
several levels of consolidation to
get answers
Poor visibility into when revenue
should be forecast to be
recognized
Inability to look at past backlog
and drill to details such as contract,
country or division to perform
meaningful analysis
Analytics Tool:
Cognos BI, SPSS,
OpenPages
IBM
BENEFITS
SOLUTION
CHALLENGE
YtY
$/Share
CAGR
11-15
$1,105
7%
$5,577
18%
$8,348
15%
17%
(0pts)
20%
1pts
21%
3pts
$0
$55
$3
$0
$0
$3,652
18%
$882
11%
$4,414
21%
$6,871
17%
18%
1pts
18%
(0pts)
20%
2pts
22%
3pts
$0
$22
$0
$0
$0
IBM
$560
14%
$118
1%
$613
10%
$790
9%
Share
21%
1pts
19%
(1pts)
22%
1pts
24%
3pts
$0
$8
$2
$0
$0
$0
Share
IBM
$/Share
$4,712
16%
18%
1pts
Share
GtG/GtH
HKG
GtG/GtH
TWN
IBM
$501
6%
$105
(14%)
$550
10%
$687
8%
Share
17%
0pts
14%
(3pts)
18%
1pts
18%
2pts
$9
$0
$23
$17
$0
$0
$0
GtG/GtH
Actual
Prediction
Q4-2011
Q1-2012
Q2-2012
Q3-2012
Q4-2012
Low
Low
Low
Low
Low
High
High
High
High
High
Medium Low Medium Low Medium Low Medium Low Medium Low
Lowest Medium Low
Low
Low
Low
FY15
$/Share
YtY
GtG/GtH
PRC
FY12
YtY
IBM
GCG
1Q'12
$/Share
Risk Category
Business Partner
Cyber Risk
Talent & Leadership
Employee Relations
Annuity Base
Regulatory Compliance
Integrity & Compliance
Physical Security
Reputation/Brand Value
Business Transformation/HRMS
Scaling Solutions
Service Delivery
Legal Structure
Real Estate
Status
100%
500
90%
28%
28%
29%
31%
410
450
80%
400
70%
11%
9%
12%
350
15%
60%
300
50%
221
250
40%
200
30%
59%
60%
59%
53%
150
20%
100
70
100
10%
50
0%
FY2011
1Q 2012
FY2012
FY2015
FY 2011
1Q 2012
FY 2012
FY 2015
CF Credit Concentration
Key Drivers' Impact to China Growth
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
30%
199
425
3,028 51
49
782
271
483
1,575
3,660
HE System
PRC YTY
15%
3,137
2,560
FY 1Q
FY
2011 2012 2012
Rest
Dist'd SW
25%
2,016 20%
2,085
2,398
666
400
473
FY 1Q
FY
2011 2012 2012
FY 1Q
FY
2011 2012 2012
10%
5%
0%
GeoE
Metro
Analytics Tool:
IBM Cognos FSR
BENEFITS
SOLUTION
CHALLENGE
COP
Illustrative example
COP
2. Low Opportunity
Headroom
3. High Opportunity
Headroom
4. Low Opportunity
Headroom
A. High
Add
Add
Add
Maintain
B. Medium
Add
Maintain
Maintain
Maintain
Maintain
Cut
Cut
Cut
Cut
Cut
Cut
Cut
Profit Margin
C. Low
D. Very low
Rev CAGR
Brand X, Geo Y
Add Clients (8 299)
27%
11%
64%
19%
31%
32%
30%
27%
28%
26%
42%
40%
44%
Total
sellers
(FTE)
Quota
sellers
(FTE)
Technical
sellers
(FTE)
78%
62%
30%
4%
32%
6%
5%
#
Clients
Revenue
-10%
Profit
OnTARGET
After
References a large universe of existing clients
and potential new clients
Incorporates relevant data that may require
multiple existing tools to access
Includes analytical models to help identify the
best sales opportunities
Integrates all such data for each company under
a single user interface designed by end users to
facilitate easy navigation
Source: Lawrence et al., Analytics-driven solutions for customer targeting and sales-force allocation, IBM SYSTEMS JOURNAL, VOL 46, NO 4, 2007
2013 IBM Corporation
2012
Decision Management
Stream Computing
Pervasive Content
pureScale
pureXML
Deep Compression
Developer Productivity
Autonomic Operations
2005
Performance
Measurement
Engagement
Deployment
Drive performance
management through
every part of the
organization whether
starting in finance or
operations with one
easy to design, deploy,
and run package on
premise or via cloud.
Looking Ahead
Q4
2014
2014
Disclosure
Management
& Financial
Close
Planning
Analysis &
Forecasting
Q4
Q4
Profitability
Modeling &
Optimization
Q4
Scorecarding
& Strategy
Management
2014
Sales
Performance
Management
Marketing
Sales
Incentive
Compensation
Quota Plan
Territories
Sales Channels
Sales dashboard
Sales
Performance
Management
Campaign
scorecard
Promotion plan
Customer /
Product
profitability
Revenue plan
Operations
Ops KPIs
S&Op plan
Capacity &
Inventory plan
Product
allocation
New products
Operational
Performance
Management
Workforce KPIs
Headcount plan
Salary & comp
Staffing plan
Training &
Development
Financial
Performance
Management
Finance
Long-term plan
CapEx &
Working capital
Cash flow plan
EPS / DCF
projections
Risk Reporting
Disclosure
Management &
Financial Close
2013
IBM
Corporation
2013
IBM
Corporation
Customer
Relationship
Dashboards
Finance
Strategic Financial
Operational
Planning
Patni
Wipro
Risk
Reducing cost of
Compliance
KPMG
IBM
Managing Project
Delivery Operational
Risk
Detailed Account
and Large Deal
Planning and
Analytics
Facilities,
Procurement and
Vendor Performance
Financial Close,
Consolidate and
Report
Fraudulent Claims
Management
IT Governance
Sales force
Productivity
Deloitte
Predictive
forecasting and
monitoring to
improve DSO
Wipro
Enterprise Policy
Compliance
Management
UST Global
Delivery
Customer, Program,
Project Profitability
Resource Allocation
and Utilization
Efficiency
IBM
Project Quality,
Time and Cost
Monitoring and
Analysis
Project Quality
Metrics Analysis
Operational Costs
Management
IBM
HR
Hiring Chain
Visibility, Efficiency
& Effectiveness
Learning Costs,
Efficiency and
Effectiveness
Early Warning
System for Top
Talent and All
Attrition
Succession Pipeline
Planning
Headcount,
Compensation and
Benefits Planning
Unified Platform
ERP Agnostic
Database Agnostic
Business Areas
Whats Included?
Embedded Data Warehouse
Adaptive Framework
Unlimited Extensions
Delivered ERP extraction
Unlimited Data Sources
Financial Analytics
Ledger
Payables
Receivables
Cash Management
Customer/Vendor Risk
Workforce Analytics
Talent Development
Talent Management
Talent Retention
Workforce Strength
Compensation
Sales Analytics
Pipeline Performance
Sales force Performance
Sales Segmentation
Customer Relations
Pricing and Program Analytics
Procurement Analytics
Spend Analysis
Vendor Analysis
Contract Management
Operational Efficiency
<Name Here>
<Date>
Beyond 2013
Consumable BI and analytics starts with a conversational experience
Beyond 2013
Making analytics consumable
Complex made easy through simple
business terms and natural language
Automatically
show most
interesting
view of data
based on
underlying
smarts
Surface hidden
answers leading
a user to more
questions
Easy access to
data with
dynamic access
to different
analytic tools
Unrivaled expertise
and capabilities
More than 120,000 consultants
based in over 170 countries
Deep expertise in 17 industries and
across functions like finance, HR,
supply chain, and IT services
Three-tier delivery model
spanning on-site, globally integrated
capabilities and centers of
competency to meet shifting client
needs around the world
Robust business process sourcing
including marketing, finance, human
resources, procurement and supply
chain
Unmatched software portfolio
enhanced with $17B in acquisitions
since 2005
Proven transformation
success
Breakthrough research
and innovation
First-of-a-kind breakthrough
innovations including IBM Watson
1
2
3
4
Customers
Grow, retain and
satisfy customers
Finance
Transform financial
processes
Operations
Increase operational
efficiency
Risk
Manage risk, fraud &
regulatory compliance
Examples:
Improve Sales force productivity
Track and Predict Stage wise Pipeline
progression and conversion
Large Account Planning and Monitoring
Enabling Rolling plan, forecasting and budgeting
Profitability per employee (Direct and Variable
costs)
Delivering real-time dashboards on Cash flow,
Expenses
Transform the entire bid to sign-off cycle
Manage project profitability at a granular level
Handle fraud in travel expenses and claims
Making risk-aware decisions on bids
Managing financial and operational risks
Reducing the cost of compliance
Next steps
Develop a
roadmap using
Benchmarking &
Analytical Apps
Meet an expert
by taking part in a
Scoping Session
Go deep with a
Solution Briefing
Focus on
innovation at
a peer to peer
briefing with an
IBM Finance
Ambassador
BACKUP
Growth
and Performance
(GAP)
Path
to Finance
Transformation
Resource Planning
How many incremental
sellers are needed in 2009 to
deliver x% revenue growth in
2010?
Performance Management
Which Brands / Regions /
Units have delivered returns
in proportion to investments?
Plan Scenarios
How much revenue can I
generate with the current
salesforce?
CHALLENGE
Objective
Achieve cost efficiencies and build platform for revenue
growth with focus on brand called One-Unilever
Approach
SOLUTION
Simplified its complex finance organization across
24 countries and 18 ERP systems
Implemented standardized finance processes and
innovative technology
Leveraging asset-based process models and global
delivery capabilities
Results
RESULTS
Integrated the company and created a more flexible
operating and financial model
Greater efficiency and operational savings contributing
to 700M annual savings for the company
Operational analytics
Asset
management
Threat and
fraud
detection
Supply chain
optimization
Sales
performance
management
Customers
Operations
Finance
Risk
Strategy-aligned organization
Marketing
Campaign
scorecard
Promotion plan
Customer and
product
profitability
Revenue plan
Sales
Sales dashboard
Incentive
Compensation
Quota Plan
Territories
Sales Channels
Operations
Sales and
operations
planning
Capacity plan
Inventory plan
Product allocation
New product plan
Workforce
Workforce
scorecard
Headcount plan
Salary and
compensation
Staffing plan
Training and
development
Finance
Long-term plan
Capex and
working capital
Cash-flow plan
Earnings per
share/discounted
cash flow
projections
Risk reporting