Sophal

Ear, Ph.D.
Associate Professor

US Engagement in Southeast Asia in the

context of the US P ivot
and
t o
t he
A
sia-Pacic

its implica;ons for Cambodia
12 December 2014

Thanks to my host and sponsors*

*The views expressed are my own and do not represent the views of my host and sponsors.

Gardening as metaphor.
(Inspired by the work of David Korten
on the Learning Process Approach)

The Illusion of Control

Gardeners have no illusion of control. We create the
right growing condi;ons, nurture a healthy soil life, set
up our lifestyles so we have ;me to tend our crops, and
we plant a diverse variety of sturdy, healthy plants and
watch them grow. We adjust as we go along - removing
excess weeds, mulching, watering and fer;lizing when
necessary - and picking o pests. But ul;mately - the
end result almost always includes crop failures, and
unexpected successes. And we will feel more like
stewards, some;mes even observers, than masters of
our domain.
http://cseaperkins.wordpress.com/tag/sustainability/

So with that caveat in mind

Lets talk about US Engagement

in Southeast Asia in the context
of the US Pivot to the Asia-Pacic
and its implica;ons for Cambodia

Why?

... as a Pacic na;on, the United States

will play a larger and long-term role in
shaping this region and its future, by
upholding core principles and in close
partnership with our allies and friends.

... As a result, reduc;ons in U.S. defense
spending will not come at the expense of
the Asia Pacic.

... well reengage with our regional
organiza;ons...Ill be proud to be the
rst American President to aYend the
East Asia Summit. And together, I
believe we can address shared
challenges, such as prolifera;on and
mari;me security, including coopera;on
in the South China Sea.

... Meanwhile, the United States will
con;nue our eort to build a
coopera;ve rela;onship with China..."


What does this mean?

Security
Economy
Democracy

Security

Not Just Security, But Economy

Trans-Pacic Partnership

60% of US trade is with the

Pacic region

Asian mari;me and regional

security are vital US interests

Asian Americans are 6% of the

US popula;on, but more
importantly are the fastest
growing ethnic group; Asians
dominate the vast number of
foreign students in America

hYp://asiancenturyins;tute.com/interna;onal/628-president-obama-s-pivot-to-asia-is-all-about-china

Geo-Economic Context

1,700,000 sq mi

~ 618,000,000 people

$2.158 trillion 2011 GDP

$3,538 per capita GDP

3,705,407 sq mi

1,350,695,000 people

$10.028 trillion 2014 GDP

$7,333 per capita GDP

Lets anchor a conceptual

framework

And start o with two types of

power

Hard Power

Sol Power
Sol power: to inuence
by persuasion rather than
coercion
Nyes original deni;on
was narrow, excluding
investment and aid and
formal diplomacy
Sol power can be high,
targeted at elites, or
low, targeted at the
broader public.

China and Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia is Chinas nearest
neighborhood. (Monroe doctrine of China?)
The Chinese model could be disastrous for a
region of nascent democracies and weak civil
socie;es.
China appears to be using its sol power to
incrementally push Japan, Taiwan, and even
the United States out of regional inuence.

Changes and Con;nuity in US-

Cambodia Rela;ons

1950s
1950: State Department recognizes Cambodia
1950: First U.S. diplomat presents creden;als
to King Sihanouk on July 11
1953: Cambodia declares its independence
1955: U.S. assistance program begins focusing
on infrastructure and educa;on
1958: Eisenhower and Sihanouk visit to the
United States
1959: Inaugura;on of Na;onal Road 4

Security

Cambodia & US
12-15 May 1975: SS Mayagez
Incident
17-18 July 2006: Admiral
Fallons get-to-know-you
mission
24-25 Jan 2007: Admiral
Roughead
9-13 Feb 2007: USS Gary visit,
1st US Navy ship in 30+ years
20-22 Aug 2007: Admiral
Kea;ng

SS Mayaguez, 12-15 May 1975

USS Gary, 9-13 February 2007

2007: USS Essex visits along with

Admiral Willard

15 June 2010: USNS Mercy and JDS

Kunisaki arrive in Cambodia as part of
Pacic Partnership 2010 (First Time)

Poli;cal

I was there in 2001, Amb. Kent

Wiedemann: Rome wasnt built in
a day but it eventually got built
(metaphor for an;-corrup;on law);
resulted in Note Verbale (if
memory serves me right)

New US Embassy Building in 2006

Assistant Secretary of State for

East Asian and Pacic Aairs, Chris
Hill, receives his gil

Amb. Carol Rodley:

$500 million in
corrup;on =
20,000 6-room
schools extra OR
US$260 extra PER
MONTH for civil
servants; resulted
in yet another
Note Verbale

Economy

In 1999, the US and Cambodia

agreed to link labor to trade

BeYer labor = more exports

Million US$ Annual Garment Export

1995-2012

$5.1 bil.
Nov 2013
3440
3130

3000

2970
2866
2652
2380
2190
1983

1610
1344
1157
906
600
359
227
28
1995

83
1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
(thru
Sept)

But as much as we would like to

think this is all about the US and
Southeast Asia (and in par;cular
Cambodia)


The elephant (or dragon or panda) in
the room is China.

And Chinas impact on US Treaty

Allies like Japan

And by extension, where China is

taking Southeast Asia

And what that means for America

So the Pivot is in large part about

Chinas rise/return/sphere of
inuence.

Our goal is not to counter

China. Our goal is not to contain
China. Our goal is to make sure
interna;onal rules and norms
are respected and that includes
in the area of interna;onal
disputes.

President Obama

What dispute?

What dispute?
The South China Sea

Territorial sovereignty, conten;on

on energy, threat to mari;me
security and overlapping mari;me
claims are at the core of the South
China Sea dispute

hYp://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/indias-mari;me-gateway-to-the-pacic/ar;cle5714122.ece

Exclusive Economic Zone

An exclusive economic zone (EEZ) is a seazone
prescribed by the United Na;ons Conven;on on
the Law of the Sea over which a state has special
rights over the explora;on and use of marine
resources, including energy produc;on from water
and wind. It stretches from the seaward edge of the
state's territorial sea out to 200 nau;cal miles from
its coast. In colloquial usage, the term may include
the territorial sea and even the con;nental shelf
beyond the 200-mile limit. The US is not a signatory
to UNCLOS, while China signed on June 7, 1996.

Since we can't
solve the South
China Sea issue, we
can leave it to the
next genera;on
which will be
smarter."

aka Kicking the Can

Down the Road

Chinas Exclusive Economic Zone and

Con;nental Shelf Act (1998)
This Act created an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) with 200
nau;cal mile limits from its coastal baseline, and claimed the
right, inter alia, to broadly undened powers to enforce laws
in the EEZ, "including security laws and regula;ons." Based on
the Act, the PRC does not recognize the airspace above its EEZ
as "interna;onal airspace" and has interfered with and
protested US reconnaissance ights over its EEZ. China takes
the posi;on that all mari;me data collec;on ac;vi;es,
including military intelligence and hydrographic collec;on
ac;vi;es, fall within the United Na;ons Conven;on on the
Law of the Sea [UNCLOS] provisions for marine scien;c
research and therefore require coastal-state consent before
they could be carried out in the two-hundred-nau;cal-mile
EEZ.

US Posi;on
The US has protested this sovereignty claim as a viola;on
of interna;onal law numerous ;mes since this law was
passed. The US Government has long conducted a
vigorous freedom of naviga;on program through which it
has asserted its naviga;onal rights in the face of what it
has regarded as excessive claims by coastal states of
jurisdic;on over ocean space or interna;onal passages.
When remonstra;ons and protesta;ons are unavailing,
elements of US military forces may sail into or y over
disputed regions for the purpose of demonstra;ng their
right and determina;on to con;nue to do so.

213 Billion Barrels

Proven and undiscovered oil reserve es;mates in the
South China Sea range as high as 213 billion barrels, the
US Energy Informa;on Administra;on said in a 2008
report. That would surpass every countrys proven oil
reserves except Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, according to
the BP Sta;s;cal Review.
=>South China Sea has 30 billion metric tons of oil and 16
trillion cubic meters of gas
=>China has 2 billion metric tons of proven oil reserves
and 2.8 trillion cubic meters of natural gas reserves
according to to BP Plc es;mates

Spratlys
The Spratlys, a group of 250 uninhabitable islets
spread over 427,350 sq km (165,000 sq miles),
are claimed en;rely by China, Taiwan and
Vietnam and in part by Malaysia, Brunei and the
Philippines.

Scarborough Shoal
2012s hot real estate

Defense Minister Liang Guanglie: China

never intends to threaten any naKon.

Phnom Penh Intrigue

The 2012 Chronicles

12 July 2012
The Associa;on of Southeast Asian Na;ons
failed to reach consensus on handling disputes
in the South China Sea, reec;ng a ril between
China and the U.S. over rules to keep peace in
the trade lane. Cambodia, which holds the
groups rota;ng chairmanship, rejected a
compromise on the wording of a joint
communique among the other nine members in
Phnom Penh. Bloomberg

The blocs inability to agree

on a communique is
unprecedented,
Indonesian Foreign
Minister Marty Natalegawa
said. This is strange
territory for me. Its very,
very disappoin;ng that at
this 11th hour Asean is not
able to rally around a
certain common language
on the South China Sea.
Weve gone through so
many problems in the past,
but weve never failed to
speak as one.

Sunday 18 November 2012

A Cambodian government
spokesperson, told media that
Southeast Asian leaders had decided
that they will not interna;onalize the
South China Sea from now on.

hYp://www.simonroughneen.com/asia/seasia/philippines/another-asean-ril-over-south-china-sea-the-irrawaddy/

From Chinas
Script:

We oppose the
interna;onalisa;on
of the South China
Sea, Chinese
government
spokesperson Qin
Gang told
reporters.
hYp://www.simonroughneen.com/asia/seasia/philippines/another-asean-ril-over-south-china-sea-the-irrawaddy/

A Chinese Seat at the ASEAN Table,

Courtesy of Cambodia?
China has given over US$2bn in bilateral aid and
loans to Cambodia in recent years, building vital
roads and other infrastructure while a western-
driven aid eort ounders amid alleged
mismanagement and government corrup;on.
Chinese companies have invested US$8billion in
Cambodia since 2006, making the country by far
the biggest investor in the 15 million popula;on
southeast Asian neighbour.
hYp://www.simonroughneen.com/asia/seasia/philippines/another-asean-ril-over-south-china-sea-the-irrawaddy/

"There were
several views
expressed
yesterday on
ASEAN unity which
we did not realize
would be
translated into an
ASEAN consensus.
For the record, this
was not our
understanding. The
ASEAN route is not
the only route for
us. As a sovereign
state, it is our right
to defend our
na;onal interests."
hYp://www.reuters.com/ar;cle/2012/11/19/us-asia-summit-idUSBRE8AI0BC20121119

Dimensions of Chinese Inuence

Garments, construc;on, telecommunica;ons,
ber op;cs, pharmaceu;cals, gold mining, oil,
agro-industry
You name it.
But why?

Chinas GeopoliKcal
Interests

Going back to the mainland

another resource involves dams

(Like Oil and) Water

And the eect on downriver

Mekong countries like Laos,
Thailand, Vietnam, Burma/
Myanmar, and Cambodia

Perennial Droughts:
Climate Change or Dams?

1999: Speaking of Chinese Largess

Cambodian Senate Complex
(which has its own golf range)

2009: Tomb-like Council of Ministers Building

But the US remains distracted

Thank you! Questions?