Chronogram: 'The Birth of the Islamic State' 2006 - 2014

Chronogram: 'The Birth of the Islamic State'

2006

2007

2008

2010

2009
1

Leadership &
Acronym
AQI Influence
ISIS/IS
Influence

Area of
Operations

Membership

International
Response

Abu Musab
Zarakawi killed
in Iraq by US
forces - AQI /
ISI

2011
3

Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and Ayub alMasri killed by US forces. Abubakr alBaghadi announced as new leader - ISI

2012
3

Syrian Civil War : Key in IS focus &

2014
3

Abubakr Baghdadi
announces creation
of ISIL or ISIS.

Sermon in
Mosulcreation of
IS

Recording AQC & IS Global Outreach

Recording AQC & IS Global Outreach.docx
Centred north of Baghdad, in Anbar, Ninveneh and Kirkuk- carrying out operations against Shi'a
communities and US forces in Iraq. Use of guerilla tactics and suicide bombings to achieve goals. Fear of

Group estimated to have a few hundred fighters suffered

major losses during US invasion of Iraq

Speculation - AQ presence In Iraq.

US"democratisation "project and funding
to Iraqi security forces.

Estimates suggest group

has 5,000- 10,000 members .
2012- 2014

President Obama withdraws troops from Iraq, leaves

Maliki as shi'a head of state. Concerns over unstable Iraq (
power vaccum /terrorism/ sectarian strife).
Obama promise to withdraw troops.Power vacuum after
withdrawal of US & Suuni repression . Suicide attacks &
geurilla tactics continue to be recorded.

Military
Response

2013
3

Bush and US forces conducting

military op. against ex- baath and
AQ targets. On the ground,
airstrikes and drones.

Assad starts to heavily repress mass opposition. Free

Syrian Army struggling against regime.No direct
military intervention , opposition from Russia. No
international concensus.

www.othersolutions.org

Significant expansion and

presence in Syria. Followed by
in fighting with JAN &
detrerioration of AQ ties.

CIA : 20,000 - 35,000

jihadists. As of 09/2014.
Speculation over Syria
intervention. Proxy
funding to topple
Assad's regimes .US,
providing weaposn for
the rebels including small
arms, assault rifles,
shoulder-fired rocketpropelled grenades and
other anti-tank
missiles. KSA, Qatar,
Kuwait huge influx of
money into Syria to arm
'resistance'. Rise of
Islamist threat in Syria

Large swathes
of land being
taken over in
northern Iraq and
sophistication of
tactics ,
kidnappings
increased
membership.
US commences air
strikes to help
Yazidi crisis. US lead International &
Arab support in
UN - Coalition war
vs IS.
Hundreds of airstrikes
in Iraq and Syria.
Arming & training
Peshmerga. Kobane
focus - No boots on
the ground. Aerial
campaign insufficient to
end IS operations.

Chronogram: 'The Birth of the Islamic State' - 2013

Chronogram: 'The Birth of the Islamic State'

Jan
1-15

Feb
16-30

1-15

16-30

March
1-15
16-30

April
16-30

1-15

May
16-30

June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1-15 16-30 1-15 16-30 1-15 16-30 1-15 16-30 1-15 16-30 1-15 16-30 1-15 16-30

AbuBakr al- Baghdadi announces the creation of ISIL or ISIS - Islamic State
in Iraq and Levant . Also, desire to merge with JAN : key in conflict with AQ
& start of ISIL dominance in Syrian theatre.

Leadership
& Acronym

AQI Influence
ISIS/IS

1-15

translation-of-ayman-al-zawahiris-letter
OSC Analysis : Al- Qaeda & Islamic State Friends or Foe (Please request your copy to OTHER SOLUTIONS Consulting)

Influence

ISIL increase
operations in
northern Syria.
Race for
legitmacy and
control

Area of
Operations

Key
Developments

International
Response

Intensified radicalization of Syrian rebels : Qatar, KSA,

Kuwait anti - Bashar rhetoric - immense funding to rebels .
Islamic front loyal to KSA , Qatar with Ahrar al -Saham, as
JAN and ISIL call it an illegitmate regime. AQ affiliated
groups gain ground and strength in Syrian opposition.
Hezbolllah has joined fighting by this point and is fighting
both the moderate and radical opposition in Syria. ISI still
carrying out terror attacks in northern Iraq and around
Baghdad as well as Syria.

ISIL organised
break out of
more than 500
prisoners from
Abu Ghraib
Prison , Iraq.
AQ operatives

Free Syrian
Army
battalion
chief killed
by ISIL in
Lattakia

Julani head of JAN swears loyaty to AQ. Bashar making

advances against rebels. Syrian Observatory for Human
Rights warning that ISIL strongest group in northern Syria.

U.S discussing use of chemical weapons by Assad regime."RED LINE". Also criticism of
Iran and Hezbollah support of regime , becoming clearer on the ground and effecting
FSA.Intense discussions with Russia .

Vote passes
273-156 in
House of
representatives
Obama
decides to
arm Syrian
rebels.

www.othersolutions.org

ISIL targets FSA, Ahrar assham and JAN. In fighting

reaching its zenith. ISIL
emerging victorious from
most confrontations.
Control of key part sin
Northern Syria including

ISIL
plannin
g
insurge
ncy
into
Anbar

FSA minimal influence, ISIL diminishing

other groups also (JAN etc) - Bashar vs
Opposition : fighting coming to a
stalemate . Maliki imprisons Suuni
MP in Anbar and clears protest

John Kerry demands Assad give away his

stockpile of chemical weapons. Fears for
Israel. Deal is struck as Russia supports
regime. Gulf states and rebels asking for
military intervention at least via air strikes. -

Widepsrea
d Sunni
repression.
31 Dec.
Iraqi army
pulls out
from

Chronogram: 'The Birth of the Islamic State' - 2014

Chronogram: 'The Birth of the Islamic State'

Jan
1-15

Feb
16-30

1-15

16-30

March
1-15
16-30

1-15

April
16-30

1-15

May
16-30

June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
1-15 16-30 1-15 16-30 1-15 16-30 1-15 16-30 1-15 16-30 1-15 16-30 1-15 16-30

Leadership

July 4th: AbuBakr al Baghdadi holds sermon in

Mosul and declares himslef Caliph over the Islamic
State (IS) - Caliphate.

& Acronym

Complete Breakdown of relation

between AQ & IS.

IS_A_Serious_Threat_or_a_Temporary_Menace (Please request your copy to OTHER SOLUTIONS Consulting)

ISIS/IS
Influence

Area of
Operations

January 14th : Anbar

Insurgency. IS offensive
on Fallujah, and Ramadiafter withdrawal of Iraqi
army.

June 5th
Blitzkrieg
into Iraq
Mosul, Tikrit
around
Kirkuk .

Infighting between groups in Syria continues. JAN, Ahrar al sham

and ISIL protagonists. ISIL consolidtaing control in Ar-Raqqah
province concentrating many men in HQ.

Lebanon theatre of opertions announced .Sophistication of tactics, wepaonary ,

finances and governance programmes. Active social media presence.

International
Response

Military
Response

Inaction no willigness to intervene in Iraq.

Maliki unpopular policies seen as trigger.

Fear of IS worse than

AQ! Extensive
media
coverage
begins.

Maliki publically
accusing KSA &
Qatar for funding
ISIL.

NO MILITARY RESPONSE BY US, ALLIES or ARAB STATES. Fighting between suuni tribes ,
iraqi security force ISIL and other islamist groups. Bashar regime and Maliki's government
inable to contain IS. Terror attacks and deaths in Iraq increase with time.

IS broken Syria
- Iraqi border in
controlof area
size of Jordan.
Captures major
oil fields . Aug:
IS starts
cleansing
campaign
targeting
Yazidis Kurds
,christian ,
Turkemen etc.
US send miltary
advisors and
marines - then
proceed aerial
missions for
Mount sinjar
crisis. Maliki

Large caches of
weaponary, tanks ,
humvees are left behind by
the Iraqi army. Iraqi forces
low morale unable to fight off

www.othersolutions.org

Videos
of
beheadi
ngs
foreign
journalist
s,aid

17
Septembe
r : Kobane
crisis.
Activity in
northern
Syria and
Iraq.

France joins US airstrikes.

Coalition made to fight IS
in Iraq and Syria , 40+
countries . Gulf & Iran cooperation with US.
Potential Spillover in

Failure of Coalition to stop IS.

No boots on the ground .
Peshmerga, Rebels, Iraqi army

Hundred of airtsrikes/ drone strikes in

northern Syria - targteing Khorasan and IS:
US & Gulf . Uk and allies in Iraq. Peshmerga