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TeamProject2
ExecutiveSummary:
PoliceIncidentAnalysisatPennStateFootballGames
TeamDelta
ColeWorthingctw129@psu.edu
JennKauffmanjxk5317@psu.edu
JohnSkotleskijms6810@psu.edu
CamilloDeviajcd5300@psu.edu
Purpose
Thepurposeofthisanalysisistogiveinformationtopolicethatwillbetterinformtheirstaffing
decisionforPennStatefootballgamesbasedonseveralvariablesassociatedwithincidentsthatoccurat
PennStatefootballgames.
ResearchQuestion
WhatvariablesbestpredictthenumberofincidentsthattakeplaceduringPennStatefootballgames?
Variables
Thevariablestheteamexaminedtoaddressourresearchquestionarethosethatwouldhaveany
potentialeffectontheresults.Thesevariablesare:
CalendarYear
Theyearmayhaveaneffectonincidentsduringgamesduetooutsideeventsinthat
year
Eventmarker
Theperiodoftimethatthegameisin,thiscouldbebeforeorafterthegame,aswellas
whichquartertheincidenttookplacein.
Timeofkickoff
Thetimeatwhichthegameactuallystarted,couldbeanytimebetween11amand8pm
Conferencegame
Whetherornotthegamethattheincidenttookplaceinwasaconferencegame
Rankedteam
WhetherornottheteamPennStateisagainstisrankedandseededornot.
Homecominggame
WhetherornotthegameisPennStateshomecominggame
Thanksgivingweekendgame
WhetherornotthegameisPennStatesThanksgivingweekendgame(typicallyless
patronsattendthisgame)
Overtimegame
Whetherornotthegametheincidenttookplaceinwentintoovertime(denotesagame
thatwascloseinscore)
Wonthegame
DeterminesifPennStatewonorlostthegame
Attendance
Whethertherewasunder100,000attendeesorover100,000attendees
Weather
Thetemperatureofthegame,rangingingroupsof10from3080.
Findings
Fromthetests,itcanbeseenthatallofthevariablesanalyzedintheonewaychisquaretestwere
foundtobestatisticallysignificantexceptfortheconferencegame.Attachment1showsthe
chisquaredvaluesfromSPSSandthedegreesoffreedomneededtogetthecriticalvaluetodetermine
iftheanalysisisstatisticallysignificant.Onlytheconferencegamevariablehadacriticalvaluethat
washigherthancomputerchisquare,showingthatconferencegamehasnostatisticalsignificance.
Thiscouldbebecausetherearefewerconferencegamesthroughouttheseasonwhichcouldresultina
samplesizethatistoosmalltoshowanystatisticalsignificance.ThephicoefficientfromtheExcel
document,Attachment3,showsthatonlythetimeofkickoffandattendancehavestrongpractical
significance.Therank,overtime,winstatus,andweatherallhaveamoderatepracticalsignificance.
WhetherthegamewasaconferencegameoronThanksgivingweekendshowedaweakpractical
significance.Thehomecominggameshowednopracticalsignificanceatall.InAttachment4,aclear
summaryoftheresultsfromtheexcelcalculationscanbefound.
Thetwowaychisquaretestcomparesthekickofftimetotheattendancerate.Theseresults,seenin
Attachment2,showthatthedifferenceinstadiumattendancefromgamesthatstartedbetween
11:00amand12:00noonisbelow100,000attendees.Forgamesthatstartbetween2:30pmand3:30pm
therewasnosignificantdifferencefoundbetweengameswithmorethanorlessthan100,000
attendees.Forgamesthatstartbetween5:00pmand8:00pmshowthattherearemoregameswithover
100,000attendees.Interpretingtheseresults,itcanbeseenthattheattendancesizeincreasesthelater
inthedaythekickofftimeofthegameis.TheCramersVof0.39showsusthatthereisamoderate
relationshipbetweenthetimeofkickoffandtheattendanceofthegame.
Recommendations
Toaccountfortheincreaseinattendancesizeforgamesthattakeplacelaterintheday,erecommend
thatthepoliceincreasetheirpresenceforgameswherekickofftimesarebetween5:00pmand8:00pm.
Whileitisimportanttotakenotethatincreasingtheamountofpolicepresentwillcostmoremoney,
therearewaystocutbackoncosts.Forinstance,decreasingthepolicepresenceforgameswitha
kickofftimebetween11:00amand12:00pmwillresultinacostdecreaseandthedecreasewouldbe
efficientbecausethetestsshowthatattendanceforthesegamesiscommonlylessthan100,000.
Cautions
Thereareafewcautionstoconsiderwhenrunningachisquaretest.Firstly,thesetestsare
nonparametricandthereforehavefewerassumptionsandarelesspowerfulthanparametrictests.A
nonparametrictestispronetoaType1errorduetoitsmorerelaxednature.TheType1errorisa
falsepositiveandcanbedevastatingtoourresultsbecauseitmaycausetheinterpreterstosee
connectionstoincidentsoccurringthatarenotactuallyexistent.Theseveritysurroundingthe
occurrenceoftheerrordependsontheoutputinthedataset.Inthiscase,aType1errorwouldcause
theresultstobedramaticallyskewed.
Secondly,itiscrucialthatourdataisstatisticallysignificantandpracticallysignificant.Statistical
significancedetermineswhetherornotthedatacollectedwaslargeenoughtobeconsideredactually
relevant,ifthetestsarenotstatisticallysignificantthentheentirestudycanbeconsideredskewedand
withoutmuchvalue.Additionally,practicalsignificancedetermineswhetherornottheresultshavean
impactinthestudy.Evenifourresultsarenotstatisticallysignificanttheymaystillshowsomevalue
tothestudyandbepracticallysignificant.Inthebestcasescenariotheresultsgeneratedwillbeboth
statisticallyandpracticallysignificant.
Attachment1:OneWayChiSquareTest
Thisattachmentshowsthecomputedonewaychisquarevaluesforthedifferentvariables.
Year
KickoffTime
EventMarker
ThanksgivingWeekend
Overtime
Attendance
ConferenceGame
Won
Ranked
Homecoming
Weather
Attachment2:TwoWayChiSquareTest
Thisattachmentshowsthetwowaychisquaretestthatcomparestimeofkickofftotheattendanceof
thegame.
Attachment3:ExcelSpreadsheet
ThisattachmentshowsthecalculationsfortheonewaychisquaretestdoneinExcel.