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SRA497A:InfosciStat

TeamProject2

ExecutiveSummary:
PoliceIncidentAnalysisatPennStateFootballGames

TeamDelta

ColeWorthingctw129@psu.edu

JennKauffmanjxk5317@psu.edu

JohnSkotleskijms6810@psu.edu

CamilloDeviajcd5300@psu.edu

Purpose

Thepurposeofthisanalysisistogiveinformationtopolicethatwillbetterinformtheirstaffing
decisionforPennStatefootballgamesbasedonseveralvariablesassociatedwithincidentsthatoccurat
PennStatefootballgames.

ResearchQuestion

WhatvariablesbestpredictthenumberofincidentsthattakeplaceduringPennStatefootballgames?

Variables

Thevariablestheteamexaminedtoaddressourresearchquestionarethosethatwouldhaveany
potentialeffectontheresults.Thesevariablesare:

CalendarYear
Theyearmayhaveaneffectonincidentsduringgamesduetooutsideeventsinthat
year
Eventmarker
Theperiodoftimethatthegameisin,thiscouldbebeforeorafterthegame,aswellas
whichquartertheincidenttookplacein.
Timeofkickoff
Thetimeatwhichthegameactuallystarted,couldbeanytimebetween11amand8pm
Conferencegame

Whetherornotthegamethattheincidenttookplaceinwasaconferencegame
Rankedteam
WhetherornottheteamPennStateisagainstisrankedandseededornot.
Homecominggame
WhetherornotthegameisPennStateshomecominggame
Thanksgivingweekendgame
WhetherornotthegameisPennStatesThanksgivingweekendgame(typicallyless
patronsattendthisgame)
Overtimegame
Whetherornotthegametheincidenttookplaceinwentintoovertime(denotesagame
thatwascloseinscore)
Wonthegame
DeterminesifPennStatewonorlostthegame
Attendance
Whethertherewasunder100,000attendeesorover100,000attendees
Weather
Thetemperatureofthegame,rangingingroupsof10from3080.

Findings

Fromthetests,itcanbeseenthatallofthevariablesanalyzedintheonewaychisquaretestwere
foundtobestatisticallysignificantexceptfortheconferencegame.Attachment1showsthe
chisquaredvaluesfromSPSSandthedegreesoffreedomneededtogetthecriticalvaluetodetermine
iftheanalysisisstatisticallysignificant.Onlytheconferencegamevariablehadacriticalvaluethat
washigherthancomputerchisquare,showingthatconferencegamehasnostatisticalsignificance.
Thiscouldbebecausetherearefewerconferencegamesthroughouttheseasonwhichcouldresultina
samplesizethatistoosmalltoshowanystatisticalsignificance.ThephicoefficientfromtheExcel
document,Attachment3,showsthatonlythetimeofkickoffandattendancehavestrongpractical
significance.Therank,overtime,winstatus,andweatherallhaveamoderatepracticalsignificance.
WhetherthegamewasaconferencegameoronThanksgivingweekendshowedaweakpractical
significance.Thehomecominggameshowednopracticalsignificanceatall.InAttachment4,aclear
summaryoftheresultsfromtheexcelcalculationscanbefound.

Thetwowaychisquaretestcomparesthekickofftimetotheattendancerate.Theseresults,seenin
Attachment2,showthatthedifferenceinstadiumattendancefromgamesthatstartedbetween
11:00amand12:00noonisbelow100,000attendees.Forgamesthatstartbetween2:30pmand3:30pm
therewasnosignificantdifferencefoundbetweengameswithmorethanorlessthan100,000
attendees.Forgamesthatstartbetween5:00pmand8:00pmshowthattherearemoregameswithover
100,000attendees.Interpretingtheseresults,itcanbeseenthattheattendancesizeincreasesthelater
inthedaythekickofftimeofthegameis.TheCramersVof0.39showsusthatthereisamoderate
relationshipbetweenthetimeofkickoffandtheattendanceofthegame.

Recommendations

Toaccountfortheincreaseinattendancesizeforgamesthattakeplacelaterintheday,erecommend
thatthepoliceincreasetheirpresenceforgameswherekickofftimesarebetween5:00pmand8:00pm.
Whileitisimportanttotakenotethatincreasingtheamountofpolicepresentwillcostmoremoney,
therearewaystocutbackoncosts.Forinstance,decreasingthepolicepresenceforgameswitha
kickofftimebetween11:00amand12:00pmwillresultinacostdecreaseandthedecreasewouldbe
efficientbecausethetestsshowthatattendanceforthesegamesiscommonlylessthan100,000.

Cautions

Thereareafewcautionstoconsiderwhenrunningachisquaretest.Firstly,thesetestsare
nonparametricandthereforehavefewerassumptionsandarelesspowerfulthanparametrictests.A
nonparametrictestispronetoaType1errorduetoitsmorerelaxednature.TheType1errorisa
falsepositiveandcanbedevastatingtoourresultsbecauseitmaycausetheinterpreterstosee
connectionstoincidentsoccurringthatarenotactuallyexistent.Theseveritysurroundingthe

occurrenceoftheerrordependsontheoutputinthedataset.Inthiscase,aType1errorwouldcause
theresultstobedramaticallyskewed.

Secondly,itiscrucialthatourdataisstatisticallysignificantandpracticallysignificant.Statistical
significancedetermineswhetherornotthedatacollectedwaslargeenoughtobeconsideredactually
relevant,ifthetestsarenotstatisticallysignificantthentheentirestudycanbeconsideredskewedand
withoutmuchvalue.Additionally,practicalsignificancedetermineswhetherornottheresultshavean
impactinthestudy.Evenifourresultsarenotstatisticallysignificanttheymaystillshowsomevalue
tothestudyandbepracticallysignificant.Inthebestcasescenariotheresultsgeneratedwillbeboth
statisticallyandpracticallysignificant.

Attachment1:OneWayChiSquareTest
Thisattachmentshowsthecomputedonewaychisquarevaluesforthedifferentvariables.

Year

KickoffTime

EventMarker

ThanksgivingWeekend

Overtime

Attendance

ConferenceGame

Won

Ranked

Homecoming

Weather

Attachment2:TwoWayChiSquareTest
Thisattachmentshowsthetwowaychisquaretestthatcomparestimeofkickofftotheattendanceof
thegame.

Attachment3:ExcelSpreadsheet
ThisattachmentshowsthecalculationsfortheonewaychisquaretestdoneinExcel.

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