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CAGR: 13.9%
1.0
2010
2020E
India consumption expenditure (USD trillion)
Consumer expenditure
estimated to be USD3.6 trillion
by 2020 vis--vis USD1.0
trillion in 2010
1.3
CAGR: 12.7%
0.5
2012
2020E
Favourable government
policies to boost investor
confidence and thereby
investments across modern
retail formats
CAGR: 30.0%
220
27
2012
2020E
100
CAGR: 7.6%
12
2006
2025E
CAGR: 19.6%
11,192
2006
2016E
8,500
CAGR: 32.8%
500
2006
2016E
Supermarkets in India
Source: indiaretailing.com, Aranca Research
Note: CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
Demanddemand
potential
Growing
2012
Market
Value:
USD0.5
trillion
Innovation in financing
2020E
Market
Value:
USD1.3
trillion
Advantage
India
Policy support
Increasing investments
Consolidation
Expansion
Conceptualisation
2010 onward
200510
199005
Initiation
Pre 1990s
Manufacturers
opened their own
outlets
Substantial
investment
commitments by
large Indian
corporate
Entry in food and
general
merchandise
category
Pan-India
expansion to top
100 cities
Repositioning by
existing players
Mono/exclusive
branded retail shops
Multi-branded retail
shops
Convergence retail
outlets
e-Trailers
RETAIL
Grocery
Department stores
Pharmacy
Retail
Departmental stores
Pantaloon has 75
stores
Westside
operates 74
stores
Shoppers Stop
has 66 stores
Reliance Retail
has launched
Trends in this
format and
currently has
nearly 100 stores
across India
Supermarkets/
Convenience stores
Hypermarkets
Pantaloon Retail
is the leader in
this format with
162 Big Bazaar
stores
HyperCITY (15
stores), Trent,
Spencers
(Spencer Hyper),
Aditya Birla Retail
and Reliance are
other players
Specialty stores
Titan Industries is
a large player,
with 368 World of
Titan, 150
Tanishq and 227
Titan Eye+ shops
Vijay Sales,
Croma and EZone are into
consumer
electronics
Landmark, and
Crossword focus
on books and gifts
Rural retailing
Vertical integration
Offering discounts
Most retailers have advanced off-season sales from 15 days to a month with discounts
ranging from 20-70 per cent on certain products
Higher discounts and other value added services for members
Lowering prices
Offering value-added
services
Companies offer innovative value added services such as customer loyalty programmes,
happy hours on shopping deals
Offers for senior citizens, contests for students, and lottery gains are now very common
Leveraging partnerships
Certain retailers adopt First Price Right approach. Retailers do not offer discounts under
this strategy they directly compete on the selling price by offering a best price without
any markdowns
In order to keep customers on shop floors for a longer time and increase conversions,
retailers are now pitching to partner with manufacturers, service providers, financial
companies, etc. to create a buzz around certain product categories
518
368
CAGR: 7.0%
424
321
278
238
201
204
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
11%
3%
3%
4%
Appareal
Mobile and telecom
5%
Food service
6%
60%
Jewellery
Consumer Electronics
8%
Pharmacy
Others
Organised Retail Penetration (ORP) in India is low (8 per cent) compared to other countries such as the US (85 per cent)
This indicates strong growth potential for organised retail in India
8%
11%
20%
Unorganised retail
penetration
Appareal
Mobile and telecom
4%
Food service
33%
8%
Organised retail
penetration
92%
Jewellery
Consumer Electronics
6%
Footwear
7%
11%
Others
8%
20%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
92%
80%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2012
Unorganised retail penetration
2020
Organised retail penetration
4,000
40
500
2006
2011
2006
2011
30,000
10,000
2
2006
2011
2006
2011
Source: indiaretailing.com, Aranca Research
18.4%
45
12.4%
11.1%
10%
21
3%
2%
0%
India
China
Russia
Brazil
UK
USA
Japan
Top 4 Cities*
1%
Apparel stores
6% 3%
21%
8%
9%
Footwear stores
19%
8%
Restaurants& fastfood
outlets
Mobile stores
Super markets
10%
14%
Source: Indian Retail Market September 2011, Times of India, Aranca Analysis
73.8%
58.9%
48.6%
65.3%
63.8% 63.1%
46.4%
43.9%
60.6%
60.8% 60.6%
58.9%
58.5% 58.0%
42.0%
40.1%
37.4% 37.3%36.9%
2.09
United States
China
2.02
Brazil
1.97
Canada
1.86
India
1.85
Australia
1.83
0
0.5
1.5
2.5
E-commerce is expected to be the next major area for retail growth in India. The industry is projected to increase from
USD70 billion in 2011 to USD200 billion in 2020
With growth in the E-commerce industry, online retail is estimated to reach USD70 billion by 2020 from USD0.6 billion in
2011
200
10
2011
0.6
2020E
2011
2020E
70
62
57
38
40
25
36
31 32
30
25
21
30 29
28 33
20
South
Korea
Japan
China
2008
2009
India
Hong
Kong
Global
Index
2010
Favourable
demographics
Easy consumer
credit and increase
in quality products
Brand
consciousness
Change in
consumer mindset
Government proposed
introducing FDI in multi-brand
retail (2008); follows up in 2012
by approving plan to raise the FDI
limit to 51 per cent
1991
2006
1997
2012
2008
Increase in employment
Infrastructure investment
Removing middlemen
Benefiting Indian
manufacturers
Sector
Entry route
FDI limit
Automatic
100%
Foreign Investment
and Promotion Board
100%
Foreign Investment
and Promotion Board
51%
Will cut agricultural waste as mega retailers would develop backend infrastructure
Consumers will receive higher quality products at lower prices and better service
Products to be sold under the same brand internationally
Sale of multi brand goods is not allowed, even if produced by the same manufacturer
100% FDI in single
brand retail
Status: Policy passed
For FDI above 51 per cent, 30 per cent sourcing must be from SMEs
Consumerism of the retail market
Any additional product categories to be sold under single brand retail must first receive
Cash flow
Multiple drivers are leading to strong growth in Indian retail through a consumption boom
Significant growth in discretionary income and changing lifestyles are counted among the major growth drivers of Indian
retail
Easy availability of credit and use of plastic money have contributed to a strong and growing consumer culture in India
Increasing acceptance and usage of e-trailers by consumers due to convenience and secured financial transactions
Expansion in the size of the upper middle class and advertisement has led to greater spending on luxury products and
high brand consciousness
17.0%
800
8.0%
400
-1.0%
2018F
2017F
2016F
2015F
2014F
2013E
2012
2011
2010
2009
-10.0%
2008
0
2007
2013E
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0.0%
2007
0
2006
3.0%
2005
350
1,200
2006
6.0%
26.0%
2005
700
1,600
2004
9.0%
35.0%
2003
1050
2,000
2002
12.0%
2001
1400
CAGR: 14.9%
2.5
2.4
FY11
FY12*
2.0
1.4
1.5
FY08
FY09
FY10
Pantaloon retail
success factors
Ground-up
Development
Winning Team
Versatile Retailing
Multiple Formats,
Multiple Brands-A
Comprehensive
Retail Experiment
Has a good understanding of the Indian retail sector and its customers
18 months
Operational retail
space:16.3 msf
Over 1000 stores in 121
cities
Employees: 36,000
Source: Company Annual Report,
Aranca Research
Note: msf - Million Square Feet
SS Department
Stores Business
21%
Subsidiary
Companies
JV Companies
77%
Shoppers Stop
(Brands and JVs)
Shoppers Stop
(apparel, accessories,
footwear, jewelry and
dcor)
Crossword
(Books and other
entertainement)
Homestop
(home furnishing)
Mothercare
(infant and toddler
care)
581.7
CAGR: 16.1%
583.8
FY13
491.0
Non Apparels
35%
276.5
284.7
307.8
Apparels
65%
FY08
FY09
Non Apparels
40%
FY10
FY11
FY12
Apparels
Apparels
60%
59%
FY13
Source: Company Annual Report, Aranca Research
40.2
36.7
36
30.9
759
821
913
977
FY11
FY12
1,062
856
24.9
27
22.8
23.3
FY09
FY10
18
9
0
FY08
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY08
Members ('000)
FY09
FY10
FY13
3500
2,503
2800
2,017
2100
1400
2,880
2,207
1,720
1,843
FY08
FY09
2,311
2,481
2,029
1,611
1,013
1,277
FY08
FY09
700
0
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Demand Factors
Supply Factors
FMCG players are focusing on rural market as it constitutes over 33 per cent of FMCG
consumer base in India
With increasing investment in infrastructure, retailers will be able to increase their access
to high-growth potential rural market
Private label
opportunities
Sourcing base
The organised Indian retail industry has begun experiencing an increased level of activity
in the private label space
Private label strategy is likely to play a dominant role as its share in the US and the UK
markets is 19 per cent and 39 per cent, respectively while its share in India is just 6 per
cent
Indias price competitiveness attracts large retail players to use it as a sourcing base
Global retailers such as Walmart, GAP, Tesco and JC Penney are increasing their
sourcing from India and are moving from third-party buying offices to establishing their
own wholly-owned/wholly-managed sourcing and buying offices
20%
4%
3%
Supply chain
management
More retail
research
Customised
warehousing
space
Trained
manpower
Current realestate
values
8%
IT
10%
23.3%
17.3%
18.0%
1951
1961
27.8%
33.0%
2001
2011
25.7%
19.9%
1971
1981
1991
Reliance Industries
Limited
Future Group
RPG Group
DLF Group
Tata Group
Partnership with Chad Valley, UK (owned by Woolworths plc.) to offer its range of toys
through standalone exclusive stores and shop-in-shop formats within the same layout
Mother care plc partnered with DLF Brands Ltd for maternity clothing, baby clothes and
nursery items
Tesco signed a deal worth USD115 million with the retail arm of Tata Group, wherein the
former will supply products, services and expertise to the latters hypermarket business
Star Bazaar
Acquirer name
Target name
Year
Deal type
Landmark Ltd
February 2013
Acquisition
September 2012
Acquisition
September 2012
Acquisition
R&R salons
May 2012
Private Equity
March 2012
Acquisition
February 2012
Acquisition
December 2011
Acquisition
June 2011
Acquisition
September 2011
Acquisition
TV18
July 2011
Acquisition
August 2010
Acquisition
June 2010
Acquisition
April 2010
Private Equity
Trent Ltd
Future Venture India Ltd
Peter England Ltd
Pantaloons Retail India Ltd
Phoenix Mills Ltd
Flipkart online services Pvt Ltd
Year
Year
2004-05
44.95
2005
45.55
2005-06
44.28
2006
44.34
2006-07
45.28
2007
39.45
2007-08
40.24
2008
49.21
2008-09
45.91
2009
46.76
2009-10
47.41
2010
45.32
2010-11
45.57
2011
45.64
2011-12
47.94
2012
54.69
2012-13
54.31
2013*
57.72
2013-14*
59.23
Average for the year
2013* - from January to October 2013
2013-14* - from April to October 2013
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