Humber Bridge Tolls Impact Assessment

Humber Bridge Tolls
Impact Assessment
Final Report
East Riding of Yorkshire, Hull, North

Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire
Councils
With
October 2008
Humber Bridge Tolls Impact Assessment
Final Report
Project No: 147001

October 2008
10 Eastbourne Terrace,
London,
W2 6LG
Telephone: 020 7053 1300
Fax: 020 7053 1301
Email : London@cbuchanan.co.uk
Prepared by: Approved by:
____________________________________________ ____________________________________________
TKS JS
Status: Status Issue no: 0 Date: 07 October 2008
humber bridge - draft 19.doc
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been made
Final Report
Contents
1 Introduction 2
1.1 Purpose of this research 2
1.2 Economic context 2
1.3 Bridge Toll History 3
2 Methodology 5
2.2 Qualitative research 5
2.3 Quantitative research 5
3 Economic Impact Assessment 7
3.1 Agglomeration impacts 7
3.2 Applying the Agglomeration Impacts 17
3.3 Results 17
4 Social Impact Assessment 20
4.1 Introduction 20
4.2 Health Travel 20
4.3 Job Seekers 22
4.4 Higher Education 25
4.5 Social/ friends and family 25
4.6 Cultural 26
4.7 City-regional amenity ‘footprint’ 26
5 Additional Impacts 31
5.1 Business Impacts 31
5.2 Retail impacts 34
5.3 Environmental impacts 34
5.4 Transport impacts 34
5.5 Historical/psychological barrier 35
6 UK-wide Impacts 36
6.2 Removing economic barriers is a promising regional investment 36
6.3 Strategic port enhancement 36
7 Summary and Findings 37
7.1 Impact summary 37
7.2 Key findings 37
Tables
Table 3.1: Results – Economic impacts of toll reduction/elimination, in £millions,

2008 prices, undiscounted 18
Table 3.2: Agglomeration impacts by industry, £millions, 2008 prices 19
Table 5.1: Business survey respondents by sector 31
Table 7.1: Results – Economic impacts of toll reduction/elimination, in £millions,
2008 prices, undiscounted 38
Final Report
Figures
Figure 3.1: Statistical relationship between productivity and employment density

8
Figure 3.2: Hull accessibility – generalised journey times with current £2.70 toll 10
Figure 3.3: Distribution of workplace for Hull residents that work, by Census ward,
2001 10
Figure 3.4: Distribution of workplace for East Riding residents that work, by
Census ward, 2001 11
Figure 3.5: Grimsby accessibility – with current £2.70 toll 11
Figure 3.6: Scunthorpe accessibility – generalised journey times with current
£2.70 toll 12
Figure 3.7: Distribution of workplace for North Lincolnshire residents that work, by
Census ward 2001 13
Figure 3.8: Hull accessibility – no toll 15
Figure 3.9: Grimsby accessibility – no toll 15
Figure 3.10: Scunthorpe accessibility – no toll 16
Figure 4.1: Focus Group 1 – Hull: Where do you live (blue dot)? Where is the
furthest you would be willing to travel for work (red dot)? 22
Figure 4.2: Key nature parks, nature amenities 27
Figure 4.3: Religious facilities 28
Figure 4.4: Sports facilities 29
Figure 4.5: Cinemas and theatres 30
Figure 5.1: How much do you spend on Bridge tolls each month? 32
Figure 5.2: The Bridge tolls impact my business in the following areas: 32
Final Report
1 Introduction
1.1 Purpose of this research

1.1.1 This research seeks to better understand the impact of the Humber Bridge tolls on the
Hull and Humber Ports City Region. Economic and social impacts are considered,
particularly the potential economic barriers to output and productivity caused by the
constraint on accessibility.
1.1.2 An earlier study examined the economic impacts of the Bridge tolls. Since then, three
key changes make a re-assessment worthwhile:
The city-regional focus of Government policy has more fully developed,
positing city regions as the engines of economic development, and making the
functionality of city regions, particularly in targeted under-performing areas, a key
priority. As the Humber Bridge is a key element of connectivity, and thus synergy
and economic functionality across the Hull and Humber City Region, the role of the
tolls in potentially creating an obstacle to city-regional development needs
understanding.
Agglomeration methodology – a way of estimating how an increase in
accessibility increases productivity and output – has become fully established and
accepted by the Department for Transport (DfT). This approach, developed by
Colin Buchanan (CB) to quantify the benefits of Crossrail and to successfully
secure its funding, was not used in the previous study and will be applied here to
quantify the economic benefit of increased accessibility achieved in different tolling
scenarios.
Scottish toll elimination – elimination of tolls in Scotland earlier this year has
brought increasing attention to the economic impact of tolls in the UK, and provides
additional assessment of toll impacts to serve as reference for looking at the
Humber Bridge tolls.
1.1.3 Given Government priorities to support city regions and to balance regional inequalities,
helping the Hull and Humber Ports City Region perform at its economic best is a natural
priority. If the Bridge tolls are found to constrain the City Region’s economic growth and
development, there is a clear alignment with policy priorities to consider altering the tolls
to allow the City Region to perform at its economic best. This would be both good for
reducing inequality, and has the potential to be a good investment for the UK, increasing
output and productivity and reducing the need for future subsidy into the City Region.
1.1.4 It is under this heading that we assess the economic and social impacts of the Bridge
tolls on the City Region. The remainder of the report contains the following:
Chapter 2 - Methodology
Chapter 3 - Economic Impact Assessment
Chapter 4 – Social Impact Assessment
Chapter 5 – Additional Impacts
Chapter 6 – UK-wide Impacts
Chapter 7 – Summary/Findings
1.2 Economic context

1.2.1 The Hull and Humber Ports City Region is a key urban area in Yorkshire and the Humber.
The region as a whole has been transitioning from a largely industrial past to a more
competitive higher-end services and manufacturing economy. Yorkshire and the Humber
has made good strides on economic performance indicators in recent years, but still
under-performs England on most economic performance measures. The region has the
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second-lowest level of highly skilled graduates, with only 25% of residents having the
highest NVQ level qualification, compared to 30% for England as a whole. Similarly,
productivity in Yorkshire and the Humber is the second-lowest of the regions, at £16,000
Gross Value Added (GVA) per worker, compared to £19,000 in England. Yorkshire and
the Humber remains one of England’s under-performing regions, and a priority for
strategic economic development.
1.2.2 The Hull and Humber Ports City Region contains about 18% of Yorkshire and the
Humber’s population, and 16% of its jobs. The City Region performs just below the
region on most economic indicators. Productivity and employment in the City Region are
just below the regional average and average earnings across the City Region are 17%
lower than the national average. Hull and Humber Ports has a much larger share of
workers in manufacturing (17%) than on average across England (11%) or in the region
(13.9%). High-end financial services jobs are a smaller share of employment in the City
Region (13%) than the region (18%) or England (22%). The City Region has made
progress in recent years and it is understandable why that the City Region remains the
focus of continued economic development to help improve the City Region and region’s
competitiveness.
1.3 Bridge Toll History

1.3.1 The Humber Bridge opened to traffic in 1981, after nine years of construction. The
Bridge was funded by loans from the Government, but difficulties with the construction
and high interest rates over the construction period meant the Bridge opened with
considerably more debt than expected (£151 million in 1981). The toll for a car to cross
one way was £1 at the time of opening. Higher debt and interest rates than projected,
coupled with lower than expected Bridge usage, caused the debt to grow to £439 million
by 1992 and placed pressure on Bridge tolls required to repay the debt. Tolls on the
Humber Bridge have since become among the highest in the UK.
1.3.2 After several years of significant levels of grant aid from the Government to the Bridge
Board to stabilise the debt, a plan was set in 1998 to achieve repayment. The
Government wrote off £62 million of the debt, reduced the interest rate on the remaining
debt from 12% to 7.75%, and set up terms for debt repayment, setting the tolls at £2.30,
subject to review every two years.
1.3.3 With toll increases set to keep pace with inflation, the debt is scheduled for repayment by
2032. A 2008 study commissioned by the Bridge Board states that since 1998, the toll
income has covered the interest due in full and repaid a total of £23.7 million of the debt.
The present remaining debt is approximately £330 million.
1.3.4 The current toll at £2.70 per crossing for cars (due to rise later in 2008) is the highest of
any crossing in the UK. Toll exemptions are relatively limited, and can be found in
Appendix 2.
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Case Study: Toll Impact Assessment in Scotland
The Scottish Executive commissioned a study (SDG 2007) to assess the economic, social, and
environmental impacts of toll reduction/abolition on the Tay and Forth Bridges. The context for these two
bridges was quite different than the Humber Bridge in that tolls for a car were £0.80 at the Tay Bridge and
£1 at the Forth Bridge at the time. Few would-be Bridge users were put off by a toll at this cost, and,
therefore, toll elimination was found in focus groups to have very little impact on travel behaviour: “In the
focus groups, across all user groups the financial cost of the tolls were considered to be insignificant and
people stated their belief that removing the tolls would have no effect on the volumes of traffic on either
bridge nor the frequency of their own journeys across either bridge” (p. 9). Indeed, people were more
concerned about congestion at the toll bridges and many suggested raising the toll at the Tay Bridge to £1
so that queues at toll barriers would move more quickly.
The approach used to estimate economic impacts was based on dynamic modelling using relative cost of
travel as a means to measure attractiveness to different areas, and measuring the increase in jobs filled as a
result of the increased attractiveness. This model showed that toll reduction would add to jobs and
employment in some areas, but take away from jobs and employment in other areas. Fife and Dundee were
found to gain in terms of residents in employment, but at the expense of Edinburgh and Lothians. The
exercise demonstrated significant redistribution of jobs, but less than 0.01% employment growth.
Traffic modelling showed that toll removal would increase miles travelled and traffic emissions and noise, as
well as present a loss in public sector income. Increase in congestion resulting from toll elimination was a
negative impact for both bridges.
At the time of the study, there was an outstanding debt from construction at the Tay Bridge of £13 million,
which was the primary reason that tolls had been retained until the time of the study. Managing traffic
demand was the main reason for retaining tolls at the Forth Bridge, which was already operating at capacity
during peak hours. Increased congestion from toll elimination was modelled, presenting a significant
negative impact.
For these reasons, the report recommended retaining the tolls on both bridges.
Of interest to this study, Scottish Enterprise was quoted as stressing their city-regional model for economic
development, and that “to enable the city region to flourish, the best possible transport links with minimal
impediments to the mobility of the available workforce should be provided” (p. 65). Scottish Enterprise,
therefore, supported abolishing the tolls.
Tolls were abolished in February 2008, principally along political rationale, and citing benefits that air
pollution and congestion would be reduced.
We note that the methodology used in the Scotland study was consistent with the methodology used in the
previous Humber Bridge economic impact evaluation. Our study uses an updated agglomeration approach.
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2 Methodology
2.1.1 The methodology for this research broadly followed two strands: qualitative and
quantitative. This allowed a quantified scale of the impacts to be assessed and also an
explanation of the reasoning behind the impacts.
2.2 Qualitative research

2.2.1 The qualitative research contained a broad range of approaches to learn more about how
the Bridge tolls impact the local economy. At one level, we sought to open up the study
to anyone wishing to express his or her story of the Bridge toll impact. Colin Buchanan
set up dedicated email and postal addresses to gather public response. The purpose of
the study and the call for stories from individuals was advertised on all four council
websites and in other affiliated council publications and also was picked up in local
newspapers and radio. Over 300 responses were received.
2.2.2 On a second level, specific groups and individuals were targeted to learn more about
particular impacts. In a method agreed with the project team, the qualitative research
focused on three groups thought to be particularly impacted by the tolls:
Those travelling for health care (patients and visitors)
Students – either travelling for a course or potential students constrained by tolls
Job seekers
2.2.3 For these categories, focus groups and interviews were conducted, as well as particular
efforts to encourage relevant people to get in touch with us through our email address
and postal address.
2.2.4 Further targeted interviews were also conducted with business representatives from
industries thought to be particularly impacted by the tolls, namely distribution, port,
transport and manufacturing industries. Other relevant stakeholders, such as Chamber
of Commerce officials, the Bridgemaster, PCT representatives, and bus service providers
were also interviewed. A total of 30 such interviews were conducted.
2.2.5 A focus group was also held among local economic development officials from all four
councils and included representatives from the Chamber of Commerce and the Humber
Economic Partnership. The findings of this session were used to inform the direction for
the inquiry.
2.3 Quantitative research

2.3.1 A quantitative approach was undertaken to estimate the scale of the impact of the
Humber Bridge tolls on the economy. This approach is centred on agglomeration
modelling. Agglomeration modelling is a technique that CB has been instrumental in
developing, and this approach has been a key part of valuing the benefits of other
schemes, such as Crossrail. The approach applied here is in line with DfT guidance, and
involves modelling the productivity benefits that would be gained as a result of the
enhanced accessibility derived from lower tolls. The approach is described more fully in
Chapter 3.
2.3.2 These agglomeration impacts have then been supplied to Experian for applying in their
Yorkshire and the Humber Regional Economic Model. Experian has built and maintained
this model in conjunction with Yorkshire Forward’s Chief Economics Unit, and this model
provides long-term input-output tables forecasting economic performance. The model is
updated every six months and provides a robust way of modelling the likely effects of
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agglomeration impacts across the economy, namely assessing the likely secondary and
multiplier impacts that would result from any agglomeration impacts assessed.
2.3.3 Other quantitative elements of inquiry have included:

Retail assessment conducted by Experian demonstrates impacts on retail
expenditure patterns generated by different toll scenarios
A city-regional footprint has been developed indicating the accessibility of
various amenities across the four districts and indicating how this changes with toll
scenarios
Business surveys were commissioned by the Chamber of Commerce and
Federation of Small Businesses to better understand the impacts of the tolls on
business more broadly
A job-seeker survey asked selected job seekers across the four districts if the toll
impacts their job search
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3 Economic Impact Assessment
3.1 Agglomeration impacts
Agglomeration explained
3.1.2 City regions are economic drivers – the very core of economic growth and development.
Scale and agglomeration (or density) – essentially what makes a city a city – have long
been thought to be connected to these productive advantages. Ability to offer a critical
mass of highly qualified labour, support services, information, infrastructure and markets
have all been linked to competitiveness and economic performance. However, the
reasons behind these connections are complex.
3.1.3 Agglomeration/density is thought to be linked to productivity in six key ways:

Denser areas allow a higher degree of specialisation, increasing efficiency
Reduced transport time and costs for products/goods/services from one stage to
the next or from producer to consumer occurs in denser areas if the transport
infrastructure is sufficient
Increased density increases the prevalence of knowledge spillovers, increasing
innovation
Denser areas allow firms to have access to larger markets of suppliers (especially
labour supply) and consumers, allowing competition to enhance the quality of
inputs and outputs
Efficiencies of scale are created in denser markets where suppliers are reaching
more potential customers
Reduced land take in denser areas allows more economic activity to take place
on a fixed piece of land
3.1.4 In addition to understanding the nature of the linkages between density and productivity,
a broad body of economic research estimates the scale of these linkages.
3.1.5 Based on research by Dan Graham, the DfT specifies agglomeration elasticities that
should be applied for different regions and sectors of the UK economy. These elasticities
are ratios indicating how a change in effective density impacts productivity/output. For
example, across England, the recommended agglomeration elasticity is 0.043. This
means that a 10% increase in effective density, holding all other factors constant, is
associated with a 0.43% increase in productivity. Doubling the effective density of an
area creates a 4.3% increase in productivity.
3.1.6 The appropriate area-specific elasticities, as recommended by DfT, have been applied in
this assessment.
3.1.7 Further work has explored this relationship across Britain. Quantitative research has
consistently shown a positive relationship between employment density and productivity,
as emphasised in recent Greater London Authority Reports (Ormerod et al, 2005; GLA
Economics, 2008). Higher productivity is reflected in higher salaries. Figure 3.1 illustrates
the positive relationship between changes in employment density (increasing from left to
right – ‘log(emp01) on the X axis) and changes in earnings (as a proxy for productivity –
increasing from bottom to top – ‘earn01’ on the Y axis) for major UK urban centres.
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Figure 3.1: Statistical relationship between productivity and employment density
Earnings differential and log of employment density, 2001

300
200
earn01
100
0
-2 0 2 4 6
log(emp01)
Source: Ormerod et al, 2005
3.1.8 The positive relationship between earnings differentials and employment density is
detectable even at relatively low levels of density. But the relationship intensifies at the
right side of the figure. The observations in the shaded portion of the figure are the city
regions of Greater Manchester, Tyne and Wear, West Midlands and 27 London boroughs
– all dense urban areas.
3.1.9 As a result of such findings, policy practitioners increasingly understand the importance of
agglomeration to economic performance in a service based economy, as well as its
contribution to sustainability. This was acknowledged in the most recent ‘State of the
English Cities’ Report for 2006:
“As the economy continues to shift from manufacturing to services, ideas and innovation
are driving economic growth and changing the value of density itself. Firms in large
metropolitan areas value their workers more highly, because workers there are more
productive. They grow more productive over time because of the variety of jobs and
information spillovers within and between industries” (State of English Cities, Department
for Communities and Local Government, Volume1, p214).
Agglomeration in the Humber

3.1.10 In the shift towards developing strong city regions in the UK economy, the concept of the
Hull and Humber Ports City Region has developed within the framework of the Northern
Way. City-regional synergies and agglomeration benefits are a key element of successful
city regions. However, the geography of the Hull and Humber Ports City Region poses a
challenge to gaining these synergies and drawing together a meaningful city-regional
economic relationship in practice. The City Region contains two districts north of the
Humber (Hull and East Riding) and two south (North Lincolnshire and North East
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Lincolnshire). The Humber Bridge provides the only connection across the Humber at
the centre of the City Region, with the nearest alternative crossing at Goole.
3.1.11 In the basic economic profile of the City Region, Hull is the leading city, with a majority of
higher-end services employment, and the North Bank contains a large workforce in Hull
and East Riding. However, developable land on the North Bank in key areas of economic
interest can be difficult to find. On the South Bank, developable land is in ample supply,
though the workforce on the South Bank is relatively small. Achieving synergies between
the two complementary areas is a logical aim for the development of the City Region.
3.1.12 In any case, because of the estuary, accessibility – and agglomeration – across the City
Region would be limited. However, the toll on the Humber Bridge further limits
accessibility considerably.
3.1.13 Transport guidance provides standard values of time which show the trade-offs between
travel time and money that people are willing to make and indicate likely travel behaviour.
The DfT value of time for commuting (in 2002 values and prices) is £5.04/hour, which
translates to £6.48/hour in 2008 prices and values. This indicates that an average
commuter is ambivalent between spending an extra hour commuting and spending an
extra £6.48. Paying the Bridge’s standard car toll of £2.70 one way is the equivalent of
adding an additional 25 minutes to a journey.
3.1.14 We note that this study is in line with DfT guidance, and is applying the national standard
value of time. However, as income in the City Region is around 17% lower than the
average in England, the actual barrier of the Bridge tolls is likely even greater for local
residents. Therefore, the results produced are likely to be a conservative estimate of the
barrier of the toll.
3.1.15 By translating the cost of the toll into minutes and adding it to journey times, these
‘generalised’ journey times show the impact of the toll on accessibility. Figure 3.2
presents accessibility within 15, 30, 45 and 60 minutes generalised journey time of Hull.
These figures are indicative of generalised journey time, but actual journey times can
vary with time of day, congestion, etc. These figures are indicative of the total ‘cost’ of a
journey in minutes, including tolls (generalised vehicle operating cost has been
excluded).
3.1.16 From Hull, only the northern portion of the South Bank is accessible within a 45 or 60
minute generalised journey. Grimsby, Scunthorpe and much of North and North East
Lincolnshire are the equivalent of considerably more than an hour’s journey away.
Correspondingly, Figure 3.3 shows where Hull residents work, and many Hull workers are
spread across the North Bank, with very few crossing to the South. The same trend is
apparent among workers from East Riding, with few crossing over the Bridge for work
(Figure 3.4).
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Figure 3.2: Hull accessibility – generalised journey times with current £2.70 toll
Figure 3.3: Distribution of workplace for Hull residents that work, by Census
ward, 2001
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Figure 3.4: Distribution of workplace for East Riding residents that work, by
Census ward, 2001
3.1.17 Similarly, from Grimsby, while Lincoln and Skegness are just within an hour’s drive, Hull
is further (Figure 3.5). Employment trends show that most North East Lincolnshire
residents that are employed work within the district, though some do spread into North
Lincolnshire and a few to Hull.
Figure 3.5: Grimsby accessibility – with current £2.70 toll
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3.1.18 From Scunthorpe, accessibility is good to the East, West, and South, but Hessle is only
just within an hour’s drive and Hull is more than an hour (Figure 3.6). Figure 3.7 shows
that North Lincolnshire’s residents that work tend to be employed within the district, with
very few crossing into Hull despite some residents being immediately across the Bridge.
Figure 3.6: Scunthorpe accessibility – generalised journey times with current

£2.70 toll
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Figure 3.7: Distribution of workplace for North Lincolnshire residents that work,
by Census ward 2001
3.1.19 The impact of the toll on perceived journey ‘costs’ and on travel behaviour is dramatic in
these figures, but it also matches with the perspectives of local residents and businesses:
“Fortunately my company pay for the tolls for me, otherwise I would be spending
almost 10% of my wage on it.”
“My husband is self-employed ... the cost of the Bridge tolls and fuel has a big
impact on his earnings. He tries to condense the work into 3/4 long days to
minimise costs but customer expectations often mean this is not possible.”
“The toll tends to keep South Bank people on their side of the Humber, and North
Bank people on theirs.”
“[Because of rising tolls] in the future I may have to consider if I can afford to work
across this side of the river. This would be a great shame, as I don’t want to have
to leave a job that I really like and enjoy.“
“Employment for myself and husband is avoided in Hull… I'm presently looking at
applying for two jobs in Hull, but with the cost of the tolls, they are really
uneconomical to apply for and would constitute a pay cut.”
“I just feel that hundreds and thousands of people have either turned down a job
opportunity or maybe not even applied in the first place because the extra cost of
travelling from the south side of the Humber, (I know both my fiancée and I
have ignored opportunities in the past because of the cost alone) I know of friends
and family who often look on the internet, local newspapers for career opportunities
and will not even consider any jobs in the Hull area because of the strain it will put
on their finances.”
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“I work as an engineer in local government in Hull, but I could not realistically take
up a position on the South Bank (which are the closest authorities) to further my
career as any increase in pay would be counteracted by the daily toll… you would
have to earn an extra £1300 per year just to stay the same.”
“As a lecturer in Nursing at Hull University I have anecdotal evidence that

particularly young people, on the South Bank, are being put off from becoming
nurses through training in Hull because of the excessive tolls.”
“Last year I was recruiting for an office based position for a German speaker here
in Hull. There were only 3 suitably qualified applicants at the time, one of whom
was based on the South Bank. That candidate dropped out before the interview
stage owing to the cost of tolls on the journey to work rendering the salary package
unattractive.”
“As a major multi national company with bases of operations on both the North and
South Banks of the Humber… [the toll] has a significant impact in recruitment,
especially of apprentices. Good applicants are put off applying for positions, simply
by the sheer cost of getting to work every day.”
“We are a small IT Support Business based in Hull that carries out installations and
provides support to businesses on the North and South banks. The cost of Bridge
tolls is a factor when calculating costs and means that we have to charge more for
our services to South Bank based businesses. This penalises them and blunts our
competitive edge.”
3.1.20 How different would accessibility be without tolls? Figure 3.8 - Figure 3.10 show the
generalised journey times with no toll, and the difference is significant.
3.1.21 From Hull, most of North and North East Lincolnshire are accessible, with Barton and
South Ferriby within 30 generalised minutes (as close as Beverley), Scunthorpe within 45
minutes and Grimsby comfortably within an hour. For Hull businesses, most of North and
North East Lincolnshire’s 320,000 residents are now within commuting distance,
increasing the available labour pool.
3.1.22 From Scunthorpe and Grimsby, the North Bank opens up, with Hull between 30-60
minutes drive and much of East Riding being accessible within an hour. Residents in
and around Scunthorpe and Grimsby are now within commuting distance of an additional
120,000 jobs in Hull.
3.1.23 Accessibility in a £1 toll scenario is mapped in Appendix 4.
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Figure 3.8: Hull accessibility – no toll
Figure 3.9: Grimsby accessibility – no toll
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Figure 3.10: Scunthorpe accessibility – no toll
Measuring agglomeration impacts of the Humber Bridge

3.1.24 The Humber Bridge has a significant impact on accessibility and agglomeration, but what
does this mean in economic terms?
3.1.25 By applying the known relationships between agglomeration and productivity, as

discussed earlier in this chapter, the change in productivity resulting from a change in
accessibility and agglomeration (in this case, because of a change in Bridge tolls) can be
calculated. The impacts of both toll elimination and toll reduction to ‘maintenance only’
level have been calculated. The no toll calculation is explained first, followed by the
results for the maintenance only/£1 toll. The methodology is the same for both scenarios.
It is assumed that the toll reduction occurs in 2009 and the effect lasts until 2032 when
the debt is scheduled to be repaid and therefore the future of the toll is uncertain.
3.1.26 First, the change in effective density in moving from the current scenario to a no toll
scenario is calculated. Effective density is a measure that looks at both employment and
accessibility. For this exercise, key cities and towns are considered, as changing
accessibility must be calculated between designated pairings. This makes sense
methodologically, but also practically, as most agglomeration benefits are likely to occur
between key economic areas, rather than among rural areas.
3.1.27 In terms of accessibility, the change in generalised journey time is calculated. This is
provided in Appendix 8. Combining this with employment growth forecasts produces the
change in effective density when the toll is eliminated.
3.1.28 DfT-specified elasticities are then applied to the change in effective density to show the
effect on productivity. These elasticities are by area, so the correct elasticity for each
town/city identified is applied. For example, an elasticity of .039 in Hull implies that a
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10% increase in effective density generates a 0.39% increase in productivity. The

elasticities used are shown in Appendix 8.
3.1.29 This process produces the direct agglomeration impacts of alternative toll scenarios. Two
more steps are then performed to derive the total net impact.
3.2 Applying the Agglomeration Impacts
Induced and indirect benefits

3.2.2 In addition to the direct impacts that increased productivity as a result of agglomeration
will have, there are also indirect and induced impacts. To assess how the agglomeration
benefits would be likely to trickle through to the sub-regional economy, Experian has
modelled the agglomeration impacts through their Yorkshire and the Humber Regional
Economic Model.
3.2.3 This model is maintained by Experian for Yorkshire Forward’s Chief Economics Unit and
provides a macro-economic forecast of regional trends. The model is updated every six
months and is used by a range of partners, including the Environment Agency and the
Government Office for Yorkshire and Humber.
3.2.4 By feeding in the changes in productivity associated with the two tolling scenarios tested,
Experian are able to model out the total impact of agglomeration – providing a scale of
the induced and indirect benefits and also an indication of the sectors most likely to
benefit. As Experian’s model covers the period up until 2025, that is the end year for
these estimates, and we assume that the induced benefits remain constant 2025-2032.
3.2.5 The modelled results indicate that the induced benefits of the agglomeration-related
output increase add a further 30-50% of the annual GVA benefit to the City Region.
Redistribution of toll expenditure

3.2.6 In the toll reduction and elimination scenarios, the City Region would also expect to see
benefit from the increased incomes of residents no longer spending income on tolls. The
total amount of toll fares paid per year in the current scenario has been calculated and
compared to that paid in the alternative scenarios. The difference between the two is the
‘redistributed’ toll fund, and we apply the Humber Bridge Study’s (2008) finding that 79%
of Bridge users have their ultimate origin within the City Region.
3.2.7 We therefore assume that 79% of redistributed toll fees are redistributed within the City
Region as household income. Residents then have choices about where this money is
spent, and some may then leak outside of the City Region when it is re-spent, while
significant portions are likely to stay within the City Region, yielding further benefit.
3.3 Results
3.3.1 Table 3.1 presents the net impacts to the City Region, as modelled.
3.3.2 The agglomeration-based increase in output in the City Region is estimated to be £21.3
million in 2009, when there is no toll, compared to continuing the toll at the current level
with the scheduled increases for inflation. The total output gain up to 2032 equals
£598.4m. These and all values in this section are undiscounted, in 2008 prices.
Furthermore, an additional £18.1m in toll payment is redistributed to residents in the City
Region in 2009, and a total of £509.9m is redistributed by 2032. With the City Region’s
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GVA in 2005 valued at £13.1 bn, the annual increase in 2009 represents a 0.3% increase
in annual GVA.
3.3.3 In the toll reduction scenario, the same process has been applied. This scenario has tolls
for an ordinary car reduced to £1 per crossing in 2009, and tolls for other classes of
vehicle are reduced proportionately. The toll would rise in line with inflation until 2032,
when the future of tolls in the comparative current scenario is no longer clear. This level
of tolling is roughly equivalent to what is required to maintain the Bridge, so we also call
this our ‘maintenance toll’ scenario.
3.3.4 In the maintenance toll scenario, agglomeration increases the City Region’s output by
£10.5m in 2009, and the total increase in output up to 2032 is £263.9m. Redistribution of
toll payment adds a further £11.2m to residents in the City Region in 2009; this totals
£315.8 by 2032.
Table 3.1: Results – Economic impacts of toll reduction/elimination, in

£millions, 2008 prices, undiscounted
£1 toll no toll
Direct + induced 10.5 21.3
agglomeration benefit
2009
Toll money redistributed to 11.2 18.1

the City Region
Total city-regional benefit 21.7 39.4

(undiscounted)
2009-2032

the City Region
3.3.5 It is noted that in the no toll scenario, the maintenance cost of the Bridge is assumed to
be covered by the Highways Agency. There is mixed precedent on who covers
maintenance costs of bridges. According to the Highways Agency, they cover “all bridges
on the trunk road network in England” with very few exceptions. Many large bridges (for
example, the Tyne Bridge on the A167 in Newcastle, the Barton Bridge on the M60 in
Manchester, the Runcorn Bridge on the A533 in Runcorn, and the A19 Tees Viaduct
between Middlesbrough and Stockton) are covered by the Highways Agency, while a few,
like the Humber, are tolled. There could be logic here to suggest that the Humber Bridge
is a needed piece of city- regional infrastructure and could be moved to the former
category.
3.3.6 Experian’s modelling also applies the DfT’s sector-specific elasticities and estimates the
agglomeration impacts on specific sectors across the City Region (Table 3.2).
Distribution activity and services are found to gain particularly, both key sectors in the
City Region’s strategic development.
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Table 3.2: Agglomeration impacts by industry, £millions, 2008 prices
No Toll Impact £1 Impact Average

Distribution
2009 2009-2025 2009 2009-2025
undiscounted undiscounted
Primary industries 0.1 1.5 0.0 0.7 0%

Manufacturing 2.2 37.9 1.1 17.3 10%
Construction 2.4 44.8 1.2 19.9 11%
Distribution/retail/wholesale 10.8 205.7 5.3 92.6 50%
Communications 1.4 28.2 0.7 12.9 7%
Services 4.5 90.9 2.3 42.0 21%
TOTAL 21.3 409.1 10.5 185.4 100%
*Please note, in the above table, figures are presented for 2009-2025 (not 2009-2032, as above) to be
consistent with the extent of the Regional Economic Model.
3.3.7 A complete breakdown of the sector-specific and geographic impacts can be found in
Appendix 6.
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4 Social Impact Assessment
4.1 Introduction
4.1.1 In addition to modelling the economic impacts of increased accessibility in output terms,
key potential social impacts have also been assessed, in the areas of health travel, job
seekers and higher education.
4.2 Health Travel

4.2.1 Many residents on the South Bank travel to the North Bank for specialist services on the
NHS. Travel across the Bridge for these services is not exempt from toll. If a patient
qualifies for a higher level of income/disability benefit, then they may qualify for a
programme of toll reimbursement (a similar programme exists for those crossing the
Bridge to visit prisoners). A full listing of toll exemptions is found in Appendix 2; please
note that the health care reimbursement is not an official exemption, it is a reimbursement
programme run separately from the Bridge Board.
4.2.2 For example, the North Lincolnshire PCT provided the following list of services for which
they have a contract with Hull and East Yorkshire Hospitals NHS Trust:
Neurosurgery
Plastic Surgery
Cardiothoracic Surgery
Nephrology
Renal Dialysis
Neurology
Radiotherapy
Specialist elements within Cardiology, Haematology and Cancer services.
4.2.3 Hull and East Yorkshire is the nearest provider for these services, though services are
also available elsewhere, with Leeds, Sheffield, Doncaster and Lincoln the next closest
providers of similar services. These alternatives are both distant and sometimes not
possible – patients stated the need to go to a certain hospital on the North Bank in order
to have a procedure done by the same doctor they were already seeing or otherwise
being connected to the health care they were already receiving.
4.2.4 From April 2007 to March 2008, there were just fewer than 4,800 referrals from North
Lincolnshire PCT to Hull and East Riding. Approximately 84% of patients took up these
referrals. There were also a further 4,200 in-patient episodes of patients from North
Lincolnshire in Hull and East Riding, and over 12,000 outpatient follow-up visits. This
equals a total of over 20,000 annual occurrences of patients travelling across the
Humber for NHS medical care. Although we were unable to obtain similar figures for
North East Lincolnshire, with a similar resident population and health care offer to North
Lincolnshire, it is likely that a similar number of occurrences are generated from North
East Lincolnshire.
4.2.5 Therefore, it is estimated that healthcare travel for patients totals 40,000 round-trips
across the Bridge, costing an estimated £216,000 in Bridge tolls – amounting to less than
half a percent of annual toll revenue. Therefore, a programme to subsidise Bridge travel
for patients is estimated to require £216,000, although further study would be advisable to
estimate the nature of additional health care trips that may be generated, and also the
number of referrals that result in multiple trips, adding to the cost of toll relief.
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4.2.6 It is noted that the opening of a new cancer centre at Castle Hill Hospital on the North
Bank may increase the number of crossings for South Bank residents.
4.2.7 Those visiting patients or other associated journeys are not included in the above
calculations, and would require further funding for toll relief.
4.2.8 Among residents, the requirement to pay for tolls when travelling for health care is widely
resented, and also highlighted in the previous toll impact study. That study cited that
residents feel strongly against tolls when travelling for health care reasons, and that there
should be no toll for those travelling for healthcare reasons, at the point of access.
4.2.9 Since that study, there has not been progress in terms of changing accessibility for those
travelling for health care reasons, and residents expressed strong feelings toward tolls for
patients. One key concern was that the tolls cause additional financial hardship to
patients (particularly those battling lengthy illnesses) at an already difficult and stressful
time, and a time when income is already restricted for many. Another concern was that
those in the hospital on the North Bank receive fewer visits and loved ones are less able
to visit and care, aiding recovery:
“Both my parents and my husband’s parents have suffered ill health over the last
few years and we were unable to visit as often as we wanted. My father in law was
very ill last year and my husband was travelling across the Bridge four times daily
over a considerable time (he runs his own business and still had to work in
Scunthorpe) - obviously this put considerable strain on the family budget.” – North
Bank resident
“My wife is under the rheumatologist at Hull Royal Infirmary and we live in N Lincs.
While she has disabled driver concessionary tickets when she is using her own car
so the routine visits do not involve the payment of a Bridge toll she has had more
extended stays in the hospital and the return toll is a considerable expense when
one is visiting daily, particularly when the cost of parking at HRI is also taken into
consideration.” – North Lincolnshire resident
“When my wife was in the hospital for several weeks for cancer treatment on the
North Bank, she would be allowed occasional ‘day trips’ out. She was only just
well enough to leave the hospital so going home was really about all she could do,
and these brief days out to come home with the family were a real treat for her at
the time. With each of these days home needing four trips across the Bridge and
costing £11 in tolls alone, we were lucky we could afford it. I’m sure many others
can’t.” – South Bank resident
“Having cancer was bad enough without struggling to manage on benefits for the
first time in my life and the extra cost of the tolls was a level of stress I could have
done without.” – South Bank resident
“When my husband was diagnosed with cancer and had to make many trips over
the Bridge to Castle Hill Hospital, where are we supposed to find the money?” –
South Bank resident
4.2.10 Local NHS officials suggest that previous recommendations to eliminate tolls for patients
have not progressed because there is no obvious body to take control of the issue and to
cover the cost of the toll for those patients. As most of the toll goes towards paying off
the debt, the Bridge Board suggest that they would have to find another means of raising
the funds (likely to involve putting up tolls for others) in order to cover the cost of letting
patients travel for free. The Bridge Board suggest the NHS should cover the cost, while
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some NHS officials suggest their funds are already rationed and ought to be used for
medications and treatments, not for a transfer payment back to the government –
essentially just cutting their budgets.
4.2.11 Many patients in contact with us expressed lack of awareness or confusion over the
benefits currently available to reimburse some patients for their travel, if on a high enough
level of benefit. It is recommended that the relevant PCTs devise clear communications
to inform all patients being referred across the Humber of the toll reimbursement
programme, perhaps with a one-page hand out available at all GP surgeries and North
Bank hospitals and given to all South Bank patients upon referral. The process of
applying for toll reimbursement should also be simplified as far as possible, perhaps with
a simple form and mail-in facility, as well as drop boxes at GP surgeries and hospitals.
4.3 Job Seekers

4.3.1 Another social impact of particular interest is the impact on job seekers in the City
Region. Longer-term unemployed were of particular interest, as improving the job search
and possibilities for those with the greatest challenges to employment would be a
particular benefit for the City Region.
Long-term unemployed
4.3.2 Three focus groups were held with clients at job training centres in Hull and Grimsby.
The content of the sessions focused on learning where participants look for work and
why, how far they would be willing to travel for work, and what kind of a barrier the Bridge
may present to their job search. We opened each session by asking each participant to
indicate where they live and how far they would travel for work (see Figure 4.1) and used
this exercise to facilitate discussion.
Figure 4.1: Focus Group 1 – Hull: Where do you live (blue dot)? Where is the
furthest you would be willing to travel for work (red dot)?
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4.3.3 The full details of the findings during these sessions are presented in Appendix 5.
4.3.4 In summary, the cost of the Bridge tolls appeared to be a barrier to those living in Hull. At
least five out of 30 participants indicated that they would be willing to cross the Bridge for
work if it were financially viable, though at the present it is not. Others felt working on the
South Bank would be just too far, while a few were constrained by public transport and
poor bus connectivity across the Bridge.
4.3.5 Most respondents had access to private transport, and a significant number were willing
to travel around an hour each way to work. There was significant promise that reduced
tolls across the Humber would widen the job search and opportunities for a number of
these longer-term, targeted job seekers.
4.3.6 Our focus group in Grimsby, however, offered less promise for the toll making a
significant difference in job search patterns. Most of these participants did not have
access to a car, and distance and public transport provision were the key factors in the
geography of their job search; the tolls were not really a factor.
4.3.7 Our findings were further validated by a survey undertaken by Job Centre Plus of its
clients. For this research, two questions were added to their regular survey related to the
Humber Bridge. Respondents were from Barton, Immingham, Scunthorpe, Grimsby,
Hull, Beverley and Hessle. Of the 166 respondents, 39% said that the tolls discourage
them from looking at jobs across the Bridge. Furthermore, 43% said that they had never
previously seriously considered a job across the Bridge. The Bridge appears to be
presenting a barrier to job search to some local job seekers.
Mid-level worker advancement

4.3.8 Many residents wrote in describing their difficulty in finding new posts to advance their
careers because the cost of the tolls limited their job search area. These mid-level
workers were considered to be those with work experience (not new graduates) looking
to progress to positions requiring more responsibility and experience. Mid-level workers
were more sensitive to the tolls than more senior-level managers, where higher earnings
make the cost of the toll relatively less of a barrier.
4.3.9 Many experienced workers described missed opportunities on the other side of the
Humber that are not financially viable because of the Bridge, or the unsustainability of
their current commute over the Bridge, because of the toll. This was the key issue raised
by East Riding residents, many of whom expressed difficulties with a cross-Bridge
commute or expressed that they were unable to take up promising posts on the South
Bank.
4.3.10 Many two-income families described difficult choices where one person has better career
prospects on one side of the Bridge, and the other has better opportunities on the other,
making it impossible to move to avoid the tolls, and resulting in one career being
sacrificed. Just a small sample of the evidence of barriers to career advancement and
matching appropriate workers with jobs within the City Region:
“I have considered jobs 'across the water' but definitely taken into account the cost
of the tolls on a daily basis, would only consider employment if an employer
subsidised the cost of the tolls.” – South Bank resident
“My husband is a senior advisor in part of the Civil Service and I am a primary
school teacher; Hull would undoubtedly benefit from our skills, particularly as I
understand there is a problem with attraction and retention of quality staff in
education. However, there is no way that either of us would consider applying for
work over the river as we would be adding a huge cost to our travel because of the
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tolls; I am currently taking a leadership programme and feel aggrieved that when
the time comes for me to look for a senior leadership position I will be unable to
look at areas within the whole 360 degree radius from my home.” – Barton resident
“I currently live on the South Bank only five miles from the Bridge. I am seeking
new employment and am finding that the Bridge tolls are very prohibiting in terms
of seeking interviews for employment and in the positions that I can take into
consideration. There are vacancies on the North Bank that are only six to ten miles
from where I live that I cannot consider because of the cost of the tolls. To pay
each way every working day means having to earn approximately £1700 before tax
more than an equivalent position on the South Bank.” – South Bank resident
“After six years of crossing the Humber Bridge for travel to work, I moved to the
south side of the Humber Bridge, this meant my wife having to find a job on the
south side also. We both enjoyed living in Hull but the £1000 a year to cross the
Bridge just for work was a cost we could no longer tolerate.” – South Bank resident
“I work in Hull within a Criminal Justice agency but live on the South Bank. I only
work part-time and the cost of petrol, Bridge tolls and parking is crippling me. The
main office in the area as with most local companies is in Hull I therefore have had
to start looking for alternative employment as I cannot afford to keep the job I have
which incidentally I love. I have 29 years experience in my field which will be lost to
the people I help in what is a public service.” – South Bank resident
“I have recently begun working in Scunthorpe and I live in Ottringham in the East
Riding of Yorkshire. I wanted a career change and therefore the job in Scunthorpe
although a fair travelling distance was a career move for me. I love the job I do but
unfortunately due to the compound impact of rising fuel and associated travelling
costs with the expense of the Bridge tolls. I am looking for a job closer to home and
also not necessarily in the area I want to work as I simply can not afford to travel
any more.” – Ottringham resident
“I live in Hull and work as a locum social worker on a freelance basis. I am

currently contracted with North Lincolnshire in Scunthorpe. I have access to
employers both North and South of the Humber estuary in terms of job availability.
I now find myself in a position whereby I will be terminating my current
contract because of the high cost of travel to work via the Bridge. In future I will be
restricting my choices to employers north of the Humber, e.g. North Yorkshire
and East Yorkshire in order to avoid the Bridge toll.” – Hull resident
Although I am enjoying my work as a social worker in North Lincolnshire very

much, in the future I may have to consider if I can afford to work across this side of
the river. This would be a great shame, as I don’t want to have to leave a job that I
really like and enjoy. – East Yorkshire resident
4.3.11 This evidence strongly indicated the toll as a barrier in the City Region to the kind of
synergies and wide labour pools that are so much a part of agglomeration.
4.3.12 Furthermore, this speaks to the challenge and disadvantage that a fragmented labour
pool presents to potential developers looking to grow new industries on the South Bank.
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4.4 Higher Education

4.4.1 Discussions with higher education officials and responses from students and potential
students revealed that some– particularly on the South Bank -- are limited by the tolls.
Students looking to take a continuing education or part-time course that live on the South
Bank are likely to find it difficult to do so on the North Bank, both because of time and
cost of travel:
“I am a recent university graduate living on the South Bank who has been looking
to take a postgraduate course, the Bridge tolls put me off from looking at the
University of Hull.” – South Bank resident
4.4.2 However, it seems that for most full-time undergraduate students, many students from
the South Bank that want to go to Hull University want to move away – this tends to be an
integral part of the decision. Other students that might want to stay more locally and
commute may go to Lincoln or choose closer further training. As many full-time
undergraduates seek accommodation away from home, the option to move across to Hull
is usually planned by many students opting to go across to the North Bank for University.
Higher education professionals said that students they work with do not indicate that this
is a barrier to their choosing to study in Hull.
4.4.3 Other educational barriers, however, emerged. On the South Bank, professionals
indicated some difficulty recruiting teachers, and indicated that there are often good
candidates from the North Bank that end up dropping out if there is no toll compensation.
One school mentioned that in exceptional circumstances, they have been forced to pay
tolls for a supply teacher from the North Bank at short notice, as there is no alternative
and such teachers would not come over without toll compensation.
4.4.4 Another barrier emerges with the resources available through Hull University. In many
ways, the South Bank misses out from the wider sharing of skill and knowledge and
community benefit that radiates from a large university, like Hull. For example, trainee
nurses and teachers at Hull University are required to do work placements. These
placements are of benefit both to the trainees and to the organisations, providing some
additional help in low staff areas, and also helping the receiving organisations to hopefully
recruit the trainees. However, because of the Bridge, placements on the South Bank are
not as desirable as on the North Bank. Although trainees are forced to take placements
across the Bridge, bearing the added cost, the South Bank is gaining less than it
otherwise would – both with fewer trainees and with the negative perception of these
placements.
4.4.5 Furthermore, Hull University is one of Hull’s largest employers, and although the
University has a significant number of support jobs, very few employees come from the
South Bank. One University official said that this is likely to be because of the tolls and
that without them the University would be better connected to the South Bank in a variety
of ways. This again illustrated the kind of knowledge linkages that are valued in
agglomeration, and illustrates how the tolls are limiting the city-regional synergies
quantified in the agglomeration impact calculations.
4.5 Social/ friends and family

4.5.1 Although residents acknowledge that accessibility for visiting across the Humber is much
improved because of the Bridge, the toll limits many social interactions across the Bridge,
and this was a common negative impact described by residents. Residents with friends
and family on the other side of the Humber explain how, though near, visits are fewer
than they otherwise would be.
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4.5.2 These impacts seemed to fall particularly heavily on pensioners and the elderly, both
because relative to fixed incomes the increasing toll is a relatively larger barrier, and also
that pensioners that become unable to drive have few good public transport options
across the Bridge.
4.5.3 Mixed families and parents with child sharing arrangements on either side of the Bridge
also noted the considerable expense of visits and the reduced or augmented visiting
patterns that result:
“My Dad lives in Hull and because the Bridge is expensive I can only get to see
him once every two weeks, i think that it should be cheaper or free so I can see my
dad more.” – South Bank resident (age 10)
“My husband's family live over the Bridge in Beverley. However, we do not visit as
much as we would like due to the tolls. It is such a shame as his Nana and
Grandma both live over the Bridge and are in their 80's.” – South Bank resident
“I am prevented from visiting an old aunt and uncle, both in their late eighties,
because I am unable to afford the toll on the Humber Bridge. I am a pensioner
myself now, and there is no alternative bus service available.” – North Bank
resident
4.5.4 We also heard how business-related social activity is limited because of the Bridge. For
example, members of the Hull and Humber Chamber described that events are held
separately on the North and South Banks, with members generally only attending on their
own side (rather than meeting and mixing with each other). One educational consultant
described that she holds regional events on both sides of the Humber because people
won’t travel across because of the tolls. Without the tolls, she believes she could hold
one event and people could meet each other.
4.5.5 These informal social interactions foster the kinds of knowledge spillovers that are a part
of the agglomeration advantages of competitive city regions.
4.6 Cultural
4.6.1 Many residents indicated that their leisure activities are restricted because of the toll.
This was true for residents on both banks – those on the South wished to cross north for
theatre, music and natural attractions in Yorkshire. Residents on the North Bank
mentioned wanting to learn more about Lincolnshire and discover natural attractions, and
others mentioned wanting to go to places like Pleasure Island in Cleethorpes:
“I am also a big Jazz fan so visit Hull Truck Theatre and The Goodfellowship Inn
for their events. I would love to go more but I'm afraid that the cost of the Bridge is
becoming more and more prohibitive.” – South Bank resident
“For 3 years I have attended music lessons every fortnight in Hull. I live in
Killingholme, North Lincolnshire. I attend a music shop in Hull, which I consider to
be a small business. With living costs and the price of petrol rising significantly
over the last few months I have stopped my tuition as I have not been able to
afford to continue with my lessons.” – Killingholme resident
4.7 City-regional amenity ‘footprint’

4.7.1 In addition to the economic impacts of limited connectivity, limited connectivity also
restricts access to social and cultural amenities. In order to better understand where
residents need to go to assess different amenities, this section presents maps of different
amenities and discusses the accessibility implications of the tolls.
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Final Report
4.7.2 Locations for these amenities were gathered from Council websites, yellow pages
listings, and other internet sites.
4.7.3 Across all the amenities, the maps indicate how increased accessibility north to south
across the City Region enhances choice across all factors. As these amenities contribute
to quality of life, increased access also contributes to the City Region’s attractiveness for
workers, residents and visitors.
4.7.4 As indicated in Figure 4.2, the South Bank has a particular wealth of nature parks and
related amenities. Increased access would benefit in this way to North Bank residents.
Figure 4.2: Key nature parks, nature amenities
4.7.5 The City Region has a wealth of religious facilities, though several groups and
denominations are only found in Hull. As Figure 4.3 indicates, increased accessibility
across the Humber would give many on the South Bank increased access to a wider
range of religious facilities, particularly for those in the northern part of North Lincolnshire,
closest to Hull, where there are few such facilities.
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Final Report
Figure 4.3: Religious facilities
4.7.6 Sports facilities are abundant throughout the City Region (Figure 4.4). However,
increased access for those on the South Bank to a more diverse range of facilities would
improve the sports amenities available.
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Figure 4.4: Sports facilities
4.7.7 The northern parts of North Lincolnshire would again benefit particularly from increased
access to the North Bank in terms of cinemas and theatres (Figure 4.5). Otherwise, the
nearest similar amenities are in Scunthorpe or Grimsby. All of the South Bank would be
likely to benefit, though, with access to the more unique and diverse theatre offer in Hull.
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Final Report
Figure 4.5: Cinemas and theatres
4.7.8 The City Region contains a good stock of sport and leisure amenities, and increased
accessibility enhances the choice and opportunity available for all residents. There is a
particular benefit for those just across the Bridge from Hull. The access to natural
amenities in Lincolnshire is also significant, as many North Bank residents wrote in on
their desire to access these.
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5 Additional Impacts
5.1 Business Impacts
Business survey
5.1.2 Although the economic impact modelling indicates the scale of impacts of toll reduction
on businesses from a broad perspective, further work was undertaken to understand local
business perspectives and to verify what impacts the tolls have.
5.1.3 The Hull and Humber Chamber of Commerce commissioned a survey of members on
both banks of the Humber, to help understand how businesses are impacted by the tolls.
Respondents were from a wide array of sectors (Table 5.1).
Table 5.1: Business survey respondents by sector
Sector Respondents
Professional Services 57
Manufacture of other goods 24
Other 23
Transport and distribution 21
Construction 19
Retailing/wholesaling 17
Not stated 16
Public or voluntary sector services 14
Other services 13
Marketing/media 7
Hotels/catering 5
Manufacture of electronic or I.T. goods 4
Production of raw materials, agriculture, fishing, mining, 3
utilities
Consumer services 1
TOTAL 224
5.1.4 Business respondents were found to have a wide range of monthly expenditure on tolls
directly, from a few pounds per month to up to £5,000 per month (Figure 5.1)
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Figure 5.1: How much do you spend on Bridge tolls each month?
40
35
Number of respondents
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
25 25-50 50-100 100-200 200-500 500- 1000
pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds 1000 pounds
or less pounds or more
5.1.5 Business respondents also stated that Bridge tolls impacted their business in a variety of
areas, with impacts on staff recruitment and recruiting new business most prevalent.
Figure 5.2: The Bridge tolls impact my business in the following areas:
50%
45%
40%
share of respondents
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
recruitment staff retention recruiting new choice of
business suppliers
5.1.6 Several respondents commented on the strength of these impacts:

“The tolls particularly affect the recruitment of suitably qualified staff. We also have
employees who travel every day across the Bridge which is a significant financial
burden on them, which for us may lead to staff retention problems. We also suffer
in attracting new clients from across the Bridge due to the tolls.” – business with
multiple premises on the South Bank
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“The main effect is £22 cost each time we make a delivery across the Bridge.” –
South Bank business
“We have a major customer centre operating in Grimsby and Scunthorpe which
means we incur additional cost whilst visiting their premises. In addition, we do not
market the business to North and NE Lincs due to the additional cost of the tolls.”
– Business with main office in Hull
“We tend to consider that Lincolnshire is business wise a dead area as obtaining
and servicing clients is not cost effective.” – Hull business
“Effectively reduces the pool of available employees within the TTWA. - Splits off
the North & South Humber in terms of markets.” – Hull business
5.1.7 An additional survey by the Federation of Small Businesses received 77 respondents,

90% of whom thought that toll reduction would benefit their business. Toll reduction was
thought to encourage trade across the Humber for 69% of businesses. Similarly, 97% of
businesses thought the tolls should be removed or reduced.
Targeted sector interviews

5.1.8 Targeted interviews were conducted with business leaders across the City Region.
These interviews were generally with major employers in the area, and from sectors
thought to be particularly impacted by the tolls: port/distribution activity and heavy
manufacturing as well as businesses with premises on both sides of the Humber. These
supplemental interviews provided a better understanding of the nature of the impacts on
businesses in the City Region.
5.1.9 Key messages:

The North and South Banks do not function as one City Region, and the tolls are a
significant reason why. Customers, suppliers, and informal business meetings are
all separate because of the Bridge tolls.
The City Region does not function as one – the North and South Banks function
very separately.
Employee base is effectively limited to your own side of the Humber – unless you
are willing to subsidise tolls.
Distribution and heavy industries on the South Bank, in particular, mentioned a

shortage of available labour because of the tolls limiting North Bank recruitment.
There is a mismatch of resources on the North and South Banks, with available
land for development on the South Bank, but not enough available labour because
of the tolls, for this to be developed at a high level; whereas the North Bank has
plenty of available labour needing jobs, but not so much attractive developable
land.
The tolls limit general inward investment into the area.
33
Final Report
5.2 Retail impacts

5.2.1 Many residents, particularly on the South Bank expressed a desire to shop more in Hull
and Beverley, and that the tolls keep them shopping more in Scunthorpe and Grimsby
and at alternatives to Hull, such as Doncaster, Meadowhall, Leeds and Sheffield.
5.2.2 Therefore, toll reduction could be expected to have a significant impact on retail spending
patterns in the City Region, and we have examined the likely impacts using retail
modelling by Experian.
5.2.3 The modelling indicates that, with toll reduction, South Bank residents take advantage of
better access to Hull’s stronger retail offer. North Bank residents also choose to shop
more on the South Bank, and benefit from increased retail choice. Toll reduction or
elimination would likely increase retail spend in Hull and Beverley, and Grimsby and
Scunthorpe would likely see modest declines in retail spend immediately following toll
reduction. It could be expected that this scale of decline could be countered by a few
years worth of ordinary growth in retail expenditure. Hull would become more accessible
for occasional shopping, though would still remain far enough away that it would not
replace more routine shopping in Grimsby and Scunthorpe. For more on the modelled
retail impacts, please see Appendix 9.
5.3 Environmental impacts

5.3.1 Toll reduction would be expected to impact on travel patterns and, therefore, on distances
travelled and related carbon emissions.
5.3.2 On the one hand, toll reduction is likely to encourage increased use of the Bridge and
generate additional journeys. It may also reduce bus use and ride-sharing, which
currently keeps carbon emissions down.
5.3.3 However, on the other hand, increased journeys across the Bridge may replace other
journeys that are longer in distance – for example, shopping trips from Scunthorpe to
Meadowhall are likely to be replaced by shorter trips to Hull. Also, drivers (including HGV
drivers) that currently divert around the Bridge via Goole because of the toll would
shorten their journeys by using the Bridge.
5.4 Transport impacts

5.4.1 Without a transport model, for this research, we are unable to draw precise conclusions
about how travel and transport patterns are likely to change with changes in toll.
However, a recent study by Faber Maunsell gives an indication of the likely changes in
Bridge traffic as a result of toll changes. Toll reduction was found to increase Bridge
traffic, mainly from cars and small vehicles. However, the increase in traffic at a reduced
toll was not enough to make total toll collection the same as the current scenario.
5.4.2 In terms of public transport, bus service across the Bridge is of key concern because the
service (currently around 1-2 buses per hour between Hull and either Scunthorpe or
Grimsby) is not frequent enough for commuters or hospital visits, and many users find it
inconvenient. Would toll reduction (including for buses) reduce fares, increase ridership,
and increase the frequency of services?
5.4.3 Discussions with the two bus providers – Stagecoach and EYMS – suggest this is
unlikely. Bus tolls were reduced to £8 in the last toll increase, and therefore represent a
small share of their operating cost. Both operators suggest that further toll reduction is
unlikely to change their fares significantly, and they believe it would take quite a
significant shift in fares to increase demand. Also, many passengers are using
34
Final Report
concessionary bus passes, so their demand is insensitive to fare change, and other
passengers only use the bus across the Humber because the tolls are so high – if tolls
are lowered, more of these passengers may be able to afford to drive their cars.
5.5 Historical/psychological barrier

5.5.1 While the tolls serve as a barrier to movement across the Humber, it is also clear that
there are deep set historical and psychological barriers between the North and South
Banks for some residents. Although many residents expressed that they have to travel to
the opposite bank frequently for work, leisure, or to visit family and friends, others
expressed a sort of rivalry between the banks and an animosity toward the other side.
Although it is hard to put a finger on exactly the scale of this barrier, this does seem to be
an issue dividing the City Region and worthy of consideration.
5.5.2 Although the Bridge tolls themselves are likely to only play a small role in this historic
barrier, it seems that they feed into this issue by limiting residents’ experiences on the
opposite bank. The animosity seems greatest among residents that spend little time on
the opposite bank, and it seems likely that increased shared experienced across the
Humber can, over time, help to ease some of the historical and mental barrier that exists.
“The toll barrier is not just a physical one it is a mental one too - one considers
whether it is worth spending the money to go over to Hull or whether to stay and
shop locally - this must also be the point being considered by folk over in Hull and
surrounding areas. We should be sharing our lovely towns and countryside - not
dividing them!” – South Bank resident
35
Final Report
6 UK-wide Impacts
6.1.1 The key assessment in this study has been looking at impacts of toll reduction on the Hull
and Humber Ports City Region. However, there are also reasons to believe that these
improvements would also be good economic development strategy for the UK as a
whole.
6.2 Removing economic barriers is a promising regional

investment
6.2.1 Addressing the regional economic imbalance is a UK priority, and the Hull and Humber
Ports City Region is a crucial economic area in the priority region Yorkshire and the
Humber. Enhancing local economic performance here and bringing it up to a national
standard is a priority.
6.2.2 Although many forms of city-regional investments will be funded to improve the city-
regional economy, removing existing barriers to economic development, once identified,
is often a simple and successful strategy to helping a city-region to operate at its
economic best.
6.2.3 Toll reduction may require an implicit investment by the UK government; compared to
other regional and city-regional level interventions, this may offer exceptional promise of
delivering local economic development benefits. Removing key barriers to economic
growth helps the Hull and Humber Ports City-region make the most of its strengths and
opportunities and operate at its most competitive level.
6.3 Strategic port enhancement
6.3.1 Toll reduction offers particular benefit to port and distribution industries in and around the
City Region, which has important strategic effects for the UK as a whole.
6.3.2 Tolls on the Bridge not only provide an immediate operational cost to these industries, but
they also impact on their competitiveness. Prime locations for port and distribution
activity on the South Bank have difficulty filling jobs, because of limited interest from the
North Bank resulting from tolls. Furthermore, connectivity between these industries and
complimentary service activities on the North Bank are limited.
6.3.3 Businesses expressed that location decisions are often impacted by the tolls, and there is
some evidence to suggest that distribution centres have been choosing other locations,
at least in part because of the toll expense.
6.3.4 The Hull and Humber Ports are a strategic centre of distribution for the UK, and
strengthening the offer here is good for UK competitiveness. Enhanced Hull and Humber
Ports can provide alleviation from congestion at ports in the South East, and running
lorries across the UK from the Humber Ports, rather than the South East coast, relieves
road congestion in the South East. This also is more competitive as much more of the
UK can be accessed from Hull within the four hours drive time directive than can be
accessed from the South East coast. Furthermore, less expensive land and labour in the
City Region makes it a more attractive and internationally-competitive port location.
36
Final Report
7 Summary and Findings
7.1 Impact summary

7.1.1 A reduction in tolls on the Humber Bridge is found to provide significant economic and
social benefits for the Hull and Humber Ports City Region. Furthermore, these benefits
offer good strategic benefits for the UK. As the region is targeted for UK investment and
public subsidisation to bring the city-regional (and regional) economy up to national
standards, toll reduction seems a logical target for such investment, given the benefits
modelled. The benefits of toll reduction offer good return to economic development
investment. Furthermore, benefit to the Hull and Humber Ports provides further strategic
benefits to UK competitiveness.
7.2 Key findings:
With the natural north-south divide across the Hull and Humber Ports City Region,
the Humber Bridge plays a crucial role in facilitating the kinds of synergies across
the area that make city regions competitive. The Bridge allows movement of
employees, goods, knowledge and information – providing a deeper pool of
resources from which the City Region can draw.
Reducing the toll to £1 per car crossing results in £10.5m in agglomeration benefit
plus £11.2 million in toll revenue going back to residents within the City Region, all
in 2009.
Toll elimination creates £21.3m in additional output, plus £18.1m in toll money
returning to local residents in 2009.
Over the projected life of the tolls, the benefits in either scenario amount to 300-
500 million (see Table 7.1).
37
Final Report
Table 7.1: Results – Economic impacts of toll reduction/elimination, in

£millions, 2008 prices, undiscounted
£1 toll no toll
2009

the City Region

(undiscounted)
2009-2032

the City Region
The output benefits accrue particularly to targeted city-regional sectors: distribution

industries and high-end services.
There are also significant social benefits in key areas:

- Health travel
- Improving opportunities for some long-term unemployed
- Increasing opportunities for continuing education
- Increasing social and leisure opportunities
In the immediate term, a strategy should be developed to clarify and simplify the
process for toll reimbursement for patients that are eligible.
With toll reduction, the entire City Region benefits from access to increased retail
choice, but while retail spend would likely increase in Hull and Beverley, retail
expenditure in Scunthorpe and Grimsby would likely decline.
Instead of these benefits, continuing the tolls as at present would continue to

constrain the city-regional economy.
38
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Humber Bridge Tolls

East Riding of Yorkshire, Hull, North

Project No: 147001

Prepared by: Approved by:

Status: Status Issue no: 0 Date: 07 October 2008

humber bridge - draft 19.doc

Table 3.1: Results – Economic impacts of toll reduction/elimination, in £millions,

Figure 3.1: Statistical relationship between productivity and employment density

1.1 Purpose of this research

1.2 Economic context

1.3 Bridge Toll History

Case Study: Toll Impact Assessment in Scotland

2.2 Qualitative research

2.3 Quantitative research

2.3.3 Other quantitative elements of inquiry have included:

3 Economic Impact Assessment

3.1 Agglomeration impacts

3.1.3 Agglomeration/density is thought to be linked to productivity in six key ways:

Figure 3.1: Statistical relationship between productivity and employment density

Earnings differential and log of employment density, 2001

Source: Ormerod et al, 2005

Agglomeration in the Humber

Figure 3.5: Grimsby accessibility – with current £2.70 toll

Figure 3.6: Scunthorpe accessibility – generalised journey times with current

 “As a lecturer in Nursing at Hull University I have anecdotal evidence that

3.1.23 Accessibility in a £1 toll scenario is mapped in Appendix 4.

Figure 3.8: Hull accessibility – no toll

Figure 3.9: Grimsby accessibility – no toll

Figure 3.10: Scunthorpe accessibility – no toll

Measuring agglomeration impacts of the Humber Bridge

3.1.25 By applying the known relationships between agglomeration and productivity, as

10% increase in effective density generates a 0.39% increase in productivity. The

3.2 Applying the Agglomeration Impacts

Induced and indirect benefits

Redistribution of toll expenditure

Table 3.1: Results – Economic impacts of toll reduction/elimination, in

Toll money redistributed to 11.2 18.1

Direct + induced 263.9 598.4

Toll money redistributed to 315.8 509.9

Total city-regional benefit 579.7 1108.3

Table 3.2: Agglomeration impacts by industry, £millions, 2008 prices

No Toll Impact £1 Impact Average

Primary industries 0.1 1.5 0.0 0.7 0%

4 Social Impact Assessment

4.2 Health Travel

4.3 Job Seekers

Mid-level worker advancement

 “I live in Hull and work as a locum social worker on a freelance basis. I am

 Although I am enjoying my work as a social worker in North Lincolnshire very

4.4 Higher Education

4.5 Social/ friends and family

4.7 City-regional amenity ‘footprint’

Figure 4.2: Key nature parks, nature amenities

Figure 4.3: Religious facilities

Figure 4.4: Sports facilities

Figure 4.5: Cinemas and theatres

5.1 Business Impacts

Table 5.1: Business survey respondents by sector

5.1.6 Several respondents commented on the strength of these impacts:

5.1.7 An additional survey by the Federation of Small Businesses received 77 respondents,

Targeted sector interviews

5.1.9 Key messages:

 Distribution and heavy industries on the South Bank, in particular, mentioned a

 The tolls limit general inward investment into the area.

“As a lecturer in Nursing at Hull University I have anecdotal evidence that

“I live in Hull and work as a locum social worker on a freelance basis. I am

Although I am enjoying my work as a social worker in North Lincolnshire very

Distribution and heavy industries on the South Bank, in particular, mentioned a

The tolls limit general inward investment into the area.

The output benefits accrue particularly to targeted city-regional sectors: distribution

There are also significant social benefits in key areas:

Instead of these benefits, continuing the tolls as at present would continue to