Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • A Bitter Cup: Climate Change Profile of Global Production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee

    Uploaded by

    poorfarmer
    985 views20 pages
    By Christian Bunn Source: Climatic Change - An Interdisciplinary, International Journal Devoted to the Description, Causes and Implications of Climatic Change Via SpringerLink Published online: December 13, 2014 Abstract Coffee has proven to be highly sensitive to climate change. Because coffee plantations have a lifespan of about thirty years, the likely effects of future climates are already a concern. Forward-looking research on adaptation is therefore in high demand across the entire supply chain. In this paper we seek to project current and future climate suitability for coffee production (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora) on a global scale. We used machine learning algorithms to derive functions of climatic suitability from a database of geo-referenced production locations. Use of several parameter combinations enhances the robustness of our analysis. The resulting multi-model ensemble suggests that higher temperatures may reduce yields of C. arabica, while C. canephora could suffer from increasing variability of intra-seasonal temperatures. Climate change will reduce the global area suitable for coffee by about 50 % across emission scenarios. Impacts are highest at low latitudes and low altitudes. Impacts at higher altitudes and higher latitudes are still negative but less pronounced. The world’s dominant production regions in Brazil and Vietnam may experience substantial reductions in area available for coffee. Some regions in East Africa and Asia may become more suitable, but these are partially in forested areas, which could pose a challenge to mitigation efforts. Discussion The goal of this study was to examine the implications of climate change for global coffee production. Analysis of changes in suitability under the RCP 6.0 scenario shows that climate change may reduce production of Arabica coffee in many areas, especially in Brazil. Robusta may also be less suitable in important regions in Brazil and Vietnam. Gains elsewhere will do little to offset these losses, giving global losses in suitability for both species of about 50 %. Only East Africa and the Asian island states show substantial gains in suitability for both species. We developed a methodology that is based on the notion that an ensemble of models captures more relevant information than a single model can. By using a mean of models based on several feasible parameter combinations rather than a single model our analysis is more robust than previous regional studies. The extrapolation of the models with spatially-explicit climate information gave global maps of bothC. arabica and C. canephora that indicate suitability scores in regions of major production. We applied the underlying models to the outputs of five global climate models for the RCP 2.6, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. We averaged across emissions scenarios to produce maps and analyzed the change in suitability scores. Both species show important changes in accumulated suitability scores at lower latitudes, which become less negative, albeit not positive, at higher latitudes. A southward latitudinal migration was also proposed by Zullo et al. (2011) in a regional study in Brazil. However, we did not find such impacts of climate change in other regions. Moreover, the gains in suitability in southern Brazil may not be enough to compensate for losses in suitability over large areas elsewhere. Similarly, losses in suitability are mostly at low altitudes while higher altitudes gain in suitability. Schroth et al. (2009) and Simonett (1988) identified similar altitudinal migration for Arabica in Central America and for Robusta in Uganda, respectively. These local studies confirm our analysis, which shows that altitudinal migration of coffee production will likely be a global trend. The magnitude of this effect, however, depends on how climate change will impact local conditions. It has previously been hypothesized that Robusta production may be able to rep

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Report this Document
    By Christian Bunn Source: Climatic Change - An Interdisciplinary, International Journal Devoted to the Description, Causes and Implications of Climatic Change Via SpringerLink Published online: December 13, 2014 Abstract Coffee has proven to be highly sensitive to climate change. Because coffee plantations have a lifespan of about thirty years, the likely effects of future climates are already a concern. Forward-looking research on adaptation is therefore in high demand across the entire supply chain. In this paper we seek to project current and future climate suitability for coffee production (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora) on a global scale. We used machine learning algorithms to derive functions of climatic suitability from a database of geo-referenced production locations. Use of several parameter combinations enhances the robustness of our analysis. The resulting multi-model ensemble suggests that higher temperatures may reduce yields of C. arabica, while C. canephora could suffer from increasing variability of intra-seasonal temperatures. Climate change will reduce the global area suitable for coffee by about 50 % across emission scenarios. Impacts are highest at low latitudes and low altitudes. Impacts at higher altitudes and higher latitudes are still negative but less pronounced. The world’s dominant production regions in Brazil and Vietnam may experience substantial reductions in area available for coffee. Some regions in East Africa and Asia may become more suitable, but these are partially in forested areas, which could pose a challenge to mitigation efforts. Discussion The goal of this study was to examine the implications of climate change for global coffee production. Analysis of changes in suitability under the RCP 6.0 scenario shows that climate change may reduce production of Arabica coffee in many areas, especially in Brazil. Robusta may also be less suitable in important regions in Brazil and Vietnam. Gains elsewhere will do little to offset these losses, giving global losses in suitability for both species of about 50 %. Only East Africa and the Asian island states show substantial gains in suitability for both species. We developed a methodology that is based on the notion that an ensemble of models captures more relevant information than a single model can. By using a mean of models based on several feasible parameter combinations rather than a single model our analysis is more robust than previous regional studies. The extrapolation of the models with spatially-explicit climate information gave global maps of bothC. arabica and C. canephora that indicate suitability scores in regions of major production. We applied the underlying models to the outputs of five global climate models for the RCP 2.6, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. We averaged across emissions scenarios to produce maps and analyzed the change in suitability scores. Both species show important changes in accumulated suitability scores at lower latitudes, which become less negative, albeit not positive, at higher latitudes. A southward latitudinal migration was also proposed by Zullo et al. (2011) in a regional study in Brazil. However, we did not find such impacts of climate change in other regions. Moreover, the gains in suitability in southern Brazil may not be enough to compensate for losses in suitability over large areas elsewhere. Similarly, losses in suitability are mostly at low altitudes while higher altitudes gain in suitability. Schroth et al. (2009) and Simonett (1988) identified similar altitudinal migration for Arabica in Central America and for Robusta in Uganda, respectively. These local studies confirm our analysis, which shows that altitudinal migration of coffee production will likely be a global trend. The magnitude of this effect, however, depends on how climate change will impact local conditions. It has previously been hypothesized that Robusta production may be able to rep

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    985 views20 pages

    A Bitter Cup: Climate Change Profile of Global Production of Arabica and Robusta Coffee

    Uploaded by

    poorfarmer
    By Christian Bunn Source: Climatic Change - An Interdisciplinary, International Journal Devoted to the Description, Causes and Implications of Climatic Change Via SpringerLink Published online: December 13, 2014 Abstract Coffee has proven to be highly sensitive to climate change. Because coffee plantations have a lifespan of about thirty years, the likely effects of future climates are already a concern. Forward-looking research on adaptation is therefore in high demand across the entire supply chain. In this paper we seek to project current and future climate suitability for coffee production (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora) on a global scale. We used machine learning algorithms to derive functions of climatic suitability from a database of geo-referenced production locations. Use of several parameter combinations enhances the robustness of our analysis. The resulting multi-model ensemble suggests that higher temperatures may reduce yields of C. arabica, while C. canephora could suffer from increasing variability of intra-seasonal temperatures. Climate change will reduce the global area suitable for coffee by about 50 % across emission scenarios. Impacts are highest at low latitudes and low altitudes. Impacts at higher altitudes and higher latitudes are still negative but less pronounced. The world’s dominant production regions in Brazil and Vietnam may experience substantial reductions in area available for coffee. Some regions in East Africa and Asia may become more suitable, but these are partially in forested areas, which could pose a challenge to mitigation efforts. Discussion The goal of this study was to examine the implications of climate change for global coffee production. Analysis of changes in suitability under the RCP 6.0 scenario shows that climate change may reduce production of Arabica coffee in many areas, especially in Brazil. Robusta may also be less suitable in important regions in Brazil and Vietnam. Gains elsewhere will do little to offset these losses, giving global losses in suitability for both species of about 50 %. Only East Africa and the Asian island states show substantial gains in suitability for both species. We developed a methodology that is based on the notion that an ensemble of models captures more relevant information than a single model can. By using a mean of models based on several feasible parameter combinations rather than a single model our analysis is more robust than previous regional studies. The extrapolation of the models with spatially-explicit climate information gave global maps of bothC. arabica and C. canephora that indicate suitability scores in regions of major production. We applied the underlying models to the outputs of five global climate models for the RCP 2.6, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. We averaged across emissions scenarios to produce maps and analyzed the change in suitability scores. Both species show important changes in accumulated suitability scores at lower latitudes, which become less negative, albeit not positive, at higher latitudes. A southward latitudinal migration was also proposed by Zullo et al. (2011) in a regional study in Brazil. However, we did not find such impacts of climate change in other regions. Moreover, the gains in suitability in southern Brazil may not be enough to compensate for losses in suitability over large areas elsewhere. Similarly, losses in suitability are mostly at low altitudes while higher altitudes gain in suitability. Schroth et al. (2009) and Simonett (1988) identified similar altitudinal migration for Arabica in Central America and for Robusta in Uganda, respectively. These local studies confirm our analysis, which shows that altitudinal migration of coffee production will likely be a global trend. The magnitude of this effect, however, depends on how climate change will impact local conditions. It has previously been hypothesized that Robusta production may be able to rep

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    ClimaticChange
    AnInterdisciplinary,InternationalJournalDevotedtotheDescription,CausesandImplicationsofClimaticChange

    TheAuthor(s)2014
    10.1007/s105840141306x

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobal
    productionofArabicaandRobustacoffee
    ChristianBunn 1,2,PeterLderach 3,OrianaOvalleRivera 2andDieterKirschke 1

    (1) DepartmentofAgriculturalEconomics,HumboldtUniversittzuBerlin,Philippstr.13,10115Berlin,
    Germany
    (2) InternationalCenterforTropicalAgriculture(CIAT),Km17,RectaCaliPalmira,Cali,Colombia
    (3) InternationalCenterforTropicalAgriculture(CIAT),HotelSeminole2CuadrasalSur,Managua,Nicaragua
    ChristianBunn
    Email:christian.bunn@huberlin.de
    Received:24March2014
    Accepted:2December2014
    Publishedonline:13December2014

    Abstract
    Coffeehasproventobehighlysensitivetoclimatechange.Becausecoffeeplantationshavea
    lifespanofaboutthirtyyears,thelikelyeffectsoffutureclimatesarealreadyaconcern.
    Forwardlookingresearchonadaptationisthereforeinhighdemandacrosstheentiresupply
    chain.Inthispaperweseektoprojectcurrentandfutureclimatesuitabilityforcoffee
    production(CoffeaarabicaandCoffeacanephora)onaglobalscale.Weusedmachinelearning
    algorithmstoderivefunctionsofclimaticsuitabilityfromadatabaseofgeoreferenced
    productionlocations.Useofseveralparametercombinationsenhancestherobustnessofour
    analysis.Theresultingmultimodelensemblesuggeststhathighertemperaturesmayreduce
    yieldsofC.arabica,whileC.canephoracouldsufferfromincreasingvariabilityofintra
    seasonaltemperatures.Climatechangewillreducetheglobalareasuitableforcoffeebyabout
    50%acrossemissionscenarios.Impactsarehighestatlowlatitudesandlowaltitudes.Impacts
    athigheraltitudesandhigherlatitudesarestillnegativebutlesspronounced.Theworlds
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    1/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    dominantproductionregionsinBrazilandVietnammayexperiencesubstantialreductionsin
    areaavailableforcoffee.SomeregionsinEastAfricaandAsiamaybecomemoresuitable,but
    thesearepartiallyinforestedareas,whichcouldposeachallengetomitigationefforts.
    Electronicsupplementarymaterial

    Theonlineversionofthisarticle(doi:10.
    1007/
    s105840141306x)containssupplementary
    material,whichisavailabletoauthorizedusers.

    1 Introduction
    Thelivelihoodsof100millionpeopledependoncoffee(Pendergrast1999),manyofwhomare
    vulnerabletoclimatechange(Bacaetal.2014).Inadditiontoitssocioeconomicimportance,
    theagronomyofcoffeeproductionjustifiesresearchonthecropsadaptationtoclimatechange.
    Theaveragelifespanofacoffeeplantationisabout30years(Wintgens2009)butcanbemore
    than50years.Existingcoffeeplantationsmaythusexperiencetheclimatechangeforeseenby
    globalcirculationmodels(GCMs).Commercialvarietiesincurrentusehaveanarrowgenetic
    base(Anthonyetal.2001)andthereforeanarrowclimaticrange(DaMatta2004).Thethreatof
    climatechangeisfurtheraggravatedbythelongleadtimeofadaptationmeasuressuchas
    breedingforstresstolerance,whichmaytakedecades(EskesandLeroy2008).
    Mostcoffeeisproducedfromtwospecies.Robustacoffee(Coffeacanephoravar.Robusta)
    accountsfor30%ofglobalproduction(USDA2012).Itisgenerallymoreheattolerant,butis
    moresusceptibletolowtemperaturesthanArabicacoffee(Coffeaarabica)(Wintgens2009),
    whichaccountsfortheremaining70%ofglobalproduction(USDA2012).Climatechangehas
    alreadybeenforecasttoreduceproductivityofArabicacoffee(e.g.GayGarciaetal.2006
    Zulloetal.2011Schrothetal.2009).Coffeecouldmigratetohigherlatitudes(Zulloetal.
    2011)oraltitudes(Schrothetal.2009)butthiswouldnotbenefitcurrentproducers(Bacaetal.
    2014)andthemigrationcouldthreatenecosystems(Laderachetal.2009).AlthoughC.
    canephoracansustainhighertemperatuesthanthehigherqualityC.arabica,itisuncertain
    whetheritcanreplacethelatteroncommoditymarkets.
    Studieshaveassessedtheimpactofclimatechangeoncoffeeusingoneofthreemethods:useof
    commondenominatorsofclimatesuitabilitytomapriskareas(Zulloetal.2011Simonett
    1988)orcorrelationbetweentemporal(GayGarciaetal.2006)orspatialvariabilityofcoffee
    production(Schrothetal.2009Davisetal.2012).Simonettetal.(1988),withRobustain
    Uganda,usedmeanannualtemperaturetoconcludethatonlyhighaltitudeswillremainsuitable.
    Zulloetal.(2011)includedwaterdeficitandfrostriskinadditiontomeanannualtemperature
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    2/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    toprojectasouthwardmigrationofArabicaproductioninBrazil.GayGarciaetal.(2006)used
    thecorrelationbetweenyieldandtemperatureinMexicotosuggestthateconomicalyields
    wouldnotbeviableby2020.Schrothetal.(2009)foundasimilarimpactonMexicancoffee
    withincreasingtemperatures.Davisetal.(2012)concludedthatareasthatareclimatically
    suitableforindigenouscoffeevarietiesinEastAfricamaybesubstantiallyreducedinfuture
    scenarios.
    Thesepreviousstudiesontheimpactofclimatechangeoncoffeedemonstratelatitudinaland
    altitudinalmigrationorcompleteabandonmentofcoffee.Theresults,however,arelimitedto
    locallevelsandglobaltrendsremainunclear.
    Davisetal.(2012)andSchrothetal.(2009)usedtheMaxEntspeciesdistributionsoftware
    (Phillipsetal.2006)toinvestigatetheimpactofclimateimpactsonC.arabica.MaxEnthas
    beencriticizedasgivingbiasedrepresentationofsuitableclimatesiftheparametersarenot
    chosencarefully.Thereisavastliteratureondefiningappropriateparametervaluesforrobust
    models.Butintheabsenceofreliabledatatocompareintertemporalclimateandspecies
    distributionchanges,thereisnoclearguidanceforparametervaluesthatallowreliable
    extrapolation(ElithandGraham2009).Thisisdespitemodeluncertaintiesthatarelargerthan
    thosefromstemmingfromGCMs(DinizFilhoetal.2009).
    Thislimitationmaybeovercomebyusingoutputsfromanensembleofvariousmodels,which
    provideamorerobustassessmentandallowforexplicituncertaintyanalysis(AraujoandNew
    2007DinizFilhoetal.2009).Weigeletal.(2008)demonstratedthatoutputsfromamulti
    modelensembleimprovedpredictionskill.Hannahetal.(2013)usedensemblestoassessthe
    potentialindirecteffectsoflandusechangeonecosystemsbythemigrationofviticulture.Bhatt
    etal.(2013)usedthemtogenerateriskmapsofdenguefever.
    Theobjectiveofthispaperistopredictcurrentandfutureclimatesuitabilityforcoffee(Arabica
    andRobusta)productiononaglobalscale.Theensembleapproachwechoseimprovesthe
    robustnessoftheanalysiscomparedwithpreviousstudies.Wethencomparedthedistributionof
    suitabilityundercurrentandfutureconditionstoderiveanimpactprofileofclimatechangeon
    globalcoffeeproduction.
    Wefirstassembledaglobaldatasetofknownpresentoccurrencelocationsofbothcoffee
    species.Usingthesedata,wetrainedthreepopularmachinelearningalgorithmsSupportVector
    Machines(Karatzoglouetal.2006)RandomForest(Breiman2001)andMaxEnt(Phillipset
    al.2006).Weuseddistinctparametercombinationsasoutlinedbelow,togiveatotalof135
    models.Weevaluatedthemodelperformanceagainsttheperformanceofatrivialinverse
    distancemodel.Finally,weextrapolatedthemodelsontointerpolatedclimatedataofcurrent
    andfutureconditionsandderivedthemeansuitabilityscoreforeachglobalpixelcell.We
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    3/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    generatedthefutureclimatedatabydownscalingGCMmodelsrunfortherepresentative
    concentrationpathways(RCP)2.6,6.0and8.5(vanVuurenetal.2011).Weanalyzedimpacts
    forlatitude,altitude,regionsandlanduseclassestohypothesizefutureimpactscenarioson
    globalcoffeeproduction.

    2 Materialsandmethods
    2.1 Climatevariables
    Forthecurrentclimate(19502000)weusedtheWorldClimglobalclimatedataseton2.5
    arcminuteresolution(Hijmansetal.2005).Thedatasetprovidesinterpolatedclimatelayersfor
    19bioclimaticvariablesbasedonhistoricaldata.Thesevariablesrepresentpatternsfoundin
    monthlyweatherstationdata,e.g.annualtemperatureandprecipitationextremes,seasonality
    andmeans.
    WeusedfiveGCMsfromtheIPCCs5thassessmentreport(Stockeretal.2013)toobtain
    futureclimatedata(GFDLESM2M,HadGEM2ES,IPSLCM5ALR,MIROCESMCHEM,
    andNorESM1M).TheseGCMsarerepresentativeofprojectedchangesofglobalmean
    temperatureandprecipitation(Warszawskietal.2014).Wedownscaledtheoutputsofthe
    GCMsusingthedeltamethod(RamirezandJarvis2010)andcomputedthedifferencebetween
    modeloutputsforcurrentconditionsandthemeanforthe20402069timeslice.Wesmoothed
    theresultinglayersto2.5arcminuteresolutionandappliedthemtotheWorldClimlayersfor
    currentclimate.Theresultwasahighresolutionsurfacecorrectedforbiasforthecurrent
    climateandthe2050timesliceforthe19bioclimaticvariables.

    2.2 Presentoccurrencedata
    Presentoccurrencelocationdataidentifyclimatescurrentlysuitabletoproducecoffee.We
    derivedtheoccurrencepointsfromthreesources:(i)Georeferencedcoffeefarms(ii)geo
    referencedmunicipalitiesinBrazilthatproducecoffeeand(iii)georeferencedcoffeegrowing
    areasidentifiedfromGoogleEarthwheredatasources(i)or(ii)werenotavailable.
    Mostoccurrencepointscamefromaglobaldatabaseof62,000georeferencedindividualfarms
    withpredominantlyC.arabicaandsomeC.canephora.TheInternationalCenterforTropical
    Agriculture(CIAT)developedthedatabaseduringseveralregionalprojectsthatwereconducted
    incollaborationwithcoffeecooperativesandcooperatingresearchorganizations.
    Acomprehensivesetofoccurrencerecordsinallcoffeeproducingregionsisdesirablesothat
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    4/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    allsuitableclimatesarerepresentedinthedatabase(Elithetal.2011).Wesupplementedthe
    georeferenceddatabygeneratingadditionaloccurrencepointsusingpubliclyavailable
    informationaboutthedistributionofcoffeeproduction.Weusedsatelliteimagerytoidentify
    preciselocationsbasedonthisinformation.
    UnliketheC.canephoradata,dataoftheC.arabicalocationswerenotcollectedformodeling
    sothattheywerehighlyclusteredintheprojectregions.Westratifiedthedatabasetoavoidbias
    usingaprincipalcomponentanalysisonthe19bioclimaticvariablestoidentifytypicalclimates.
    Fromeachclimateclusterwechosearandomrepresentativesample.Thisreducedtheoriginal
    sampleto1772uniquepresencelocationsforC.arabica.
    NeithertheArabicanortheRobustadatabaseincludedallofthedominantgrowingregionsin
    Brazil,where36%ofglobalArabicacoffeeisproduced(USDA2012).Toensuresufficient
    representationofBraziliansitesandclimates,weincludeddataprovidedbyIBGE(2012).Using
    thesedata,weidentifiedmunicipalitieswhere75%ofthecoffeeisfromoneorotherofthetwo
    species.Wethengeoreferencedthesemunicipalitiesfortheappropriatespecies.
    Thecombinedgeoreferencedatasetgave2861uniquepixelcellsforC.arabicain26countries
    thattogetheraccountedfor92%ofglobalArabicaoutput19982002(USDA2012).ForC.
    canephorathedatasetincluded364uniquepixelcellsin11countriesthattogetheraccountfor
    92%ofglobalRobustaoutput19982002(USDA2012)(SupplementaryMaterialTableS1).
    Figure1showsthedistributionofpresentcoffeelocationsandmajorproductionregions.

    Fig.1
    Globalcoffeelocationdatabaseandmajorcoffeegrowingregions.BluepointsrepresentC.canephora
    occurrencelocationsorangepointslocationsofC.arabicabasedproduction.Greyshadingandbold
    namesrepresentregionsofcoffeeproduction

    2.3 Backgroundsampling
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    5/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    Tofitafunctionthatdescribessuitableclimates,theclassificationalgorithmscomparethe
    variablepatternsfoundatpresentoccurrencelocationswiththepatternfoundinenvironments
    thatarepotentiallysuitable.Tocharacterizetheseenvironments,wetookrandomsamplesfrom
    locationsthatwerenotknownpresentlocations.
    Wechosethebackgroundsamplestoavoidbothtrivialclassificationandovertrainingofthe
    algorithms.Inecology,thereisatradeoffbetweenpredictiveperformanceandcapabilityto
    generalize.Forexample,amodelthatalwayscorrectlyseparatesknownoccurrencelocations
    fromtherandombackgroundsamplesmaybeundesirable.Thisisbecauseitunderestimatesthe
    trueenvironmentalrangeincaseswheretheknownoccurrencedataincompletelyrepresentthe
    truedistribution.Amoregeneralmodel,however,thatalwayscorrectlypredictsunknown
    presentlocationsmayoverestimatetheenvironmentalrange.
    Nooptimizationframeworkforthedefinitionofbackgroundparametersandmodeling
    approachesexiststodate(ElithandGraham2009).Therefore,ratherthanusingasingle
    samplingstrategyweusedamodelensemble.Webasedtheensembleonseveralbackground
    samplingparameterswithinreasonablerangesfor(i)thegeographicalextentfromwhichthe
    backgroundsamplewasdrawn,and(ii)thenumberofsamples.Furthermore,weaccountedfor
    remainingsamplingbiasinthelocationdatabaseusingthebiasedbackgroundsamplingmethod
    Dudketal.(2005))(SupplementaryMaterialTableS1).
    Thegeographicextentofbackgroundsamplesshouldreflectpriorknowledgeofthespecies
    distributionandbeadequatetothegeographicalscaleofthestudy(VanDerWaletal.2009).We
    employedthreedifferentbackgroundconcepts,political,biophysical,andgeographic.We
    definedthefirstbackgroundasallcountriesthatproduceeitherRobustaorArabica(USDA
    2012ICO2013)respectively.Wedefinedthesecondbylimitingtheenvironmenttothe
    observedspreadofannualmeantemperatureforeachspecieslocationsample(C.arabica:
    14C26.4CC.canephora19.2C27.8C).Wedefinedthethirdbyusinga4.5buffer
    aroundpresentlocations(about500kmattheequator).
    Theliteratureagreesthattheratioofbackgroundsamplestooccurrencelocationsshouldbeat
    least1:1.Toofewbackgroundsamplesdonotallowforacleardistinctionbetweenoccurrence
    andbackground,commonlyleadingtoanoverpredictionofdistribution,whiletoomany
    backgroundsamplesresultinunderprediction(BarbetMassinetal.2012).Weusedoccurrence
    locationtobackgroundsampleratiosof1:1,2:1,4:1,6:1,8:1.

    2.4 Modeltraining
    Fortheclimatesuitabilitymappingwereliedontheclassificationprobabilitiesprovidedby
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    6/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    threemachinelearningalgorithms:MaxEnt,SupportVectorMachines(SVM)andRandom
    Forest.MaxEnt(Phillipsetal.2006)iswidelyusedtomodelspeciesdistributioninecology
    (Merowetal.2013).SVMisawidelyusedclassificationalgorithmweusedthe
    implementationintheRpackagekernlab(Karatzoglouetal.2006).RandomForests(Breiman
    2001)isanensemblelearningmethodforclassificationofdatausingmultipledecisiontreesthat
    hasbeenshowntobeusefulinecology(Prasadetal.2006).
    Machinelearningalgorithmsincludearegularizationparameterthatallowstheusertoadjusta
    tradeoffbetweenoptimalmodelfitandgeneralization.Optimalparametervaluesareusually
    dependentonthecharacteristicsoftheinputdata.Wethereforeinitiallydefinedrelevant
    parametervaluesbyconductingagridsearchacrosstherelevantparameterranges.Toassess
    generalizationcapacityweselected25%ofouroccurrencepointsthatweremostdistantfrom
    otherpointsasatestdataset,andtrainedonthe75%ofpresentlocationsthatwerenotas
    dispersed.Wechosethreelevelsofregularizationperalgorithmthatimprovedmodel
    generalizationcomparedtodefaultsettings.FortheMaxEntregularizationparameterwe
    choose0.01,5and20:forSVMsccostparameter1,0.5and0.05andforthenumberof
    variablespickedatnodesbyRandomForest8,4,and2.Thefirstvaluewasmeanttoproducea
    wellfittedmodel,whilethelastvaluegaveageneralmodel.

    2.5 Modelevaluation
    Toassesstheperformanceoftheindividualmodelsweusedtwomeasures:thethreshold
    independentareaunderthereceivercharacteristiccurve(AUC)andacalibratedAUCmeasure
    (cAUC).AUCswerecalculatedusing10foldsubsamplingoftrainingandtestingdata.Each
    modelwasthustrainedon90%ofthelocationdatabaseandevaluatedontheremaining10%in
    tenreplications.
    TheAUCisthestandardmethodofmodelevaluationinmodelingpredictivedistributions.It
    summarizestherankingofoccurrencepointsversustherankingofbackgroundsamples.Ifall
    presentsiteshaveahighervaluethanbackgroundsitesitsvalueis1,whileavalueof0.5
    reflectsamodelthatisnobetterthanchance.TheuseoftheAUCstatistichasbeencriticized,
    however,asbeingmisleadingwhendifferentbackgroundsamplesaredrawnfromdifferent
    backgroundextents:lowpredictionsongeographicallydistantlocationsareoftentrivialand
    inflatethestatistic(Loboetal.2008).Thisistobeexpectedbecauseclimatepatternsareusually
    autocorrelated.WethereforecalculatedacAUCasproposedbyHijmans(2012)bycalibrating
    themodelAUCusingtheAUCderivedfromatrivialnullmodelbasedontheinversedistance
    tothetrainingpresence.
    WeestimatedvariableimportancebycomputingAUCvaluesforeachpredictorvariable
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    7/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    individuallyusingtheCaretpackageinR(Kuhn2008).Thismethodappliescutoffstothe
    predictordataandthencalculatessensitivityandspecificityforeachcutofftocalculatethe
    AUC.TheAUCisthenameasureforvariableimportance.

    2.6 Impacts
    Wetrainedthethreealgorithmsusingtheparameterspacesdescribedabove,fivedifferentratios
    ofbackgroundtopresencesamples,threeregularizationchoices,andthethreesamplingextents.
    Wethereforetrained3*5*3*3=135distinctmodelsperspecies.Weextrapolatedthetrained
    andtestedmodelsonrasterdataforthe19bioclimaticvariablesfromWorldClimandforthe
    2050timeslice.Thisyieldedmapsofcontinuousscoreswhetherapixelcellbelongedtothe
    absenceorpresenceclass.Thisisequivalenttoratingeachglobalpixelcellsclimateassuitable
    orunsuitableforcoffeeproduction.Wenormalizedindividualmodeloutputstoscoresfrom0to
    1andaveragedthemforeachbaselineandemissionscenario.Todefineathresholdbetween
    probabilitiesthatrepresentmarginalsuitabilityandrelevantsuitabilityvalueswechosethe
    lowestvalueatapresentlocation.Weonlyincludedintheanalysispixelcellsthathad
    suitabilityvaluesabovethisthreshold.
    Wecomparedimpactsacrosslatitudeandaltitudeclassesbycomparingthesumsofsuitability
    scoresacross1latitudeclassesand100maltitudeclasses.Weanalyzedregionalimpactsfor12
    regionsofcoffeeproduction(Fig.1).
    WeusedtheGLC2000globallandcoverdatabase(EuropeanCommission2003)topartition
    suitabilitychangestolandwithforestcover(GLC2000globalcategories19),landwithout
    forestcover,andagriculturalland(GLC200globalcategories1018).Tropicalforestsprovide
    diverseecosystemservices,aremorespeciesrichandholdhighercarbonstocksthancoffee
    plantations(DeBeenhouveretal.2013).Coffeeplantations,however,oftenhavemore
    biologicaldiversitythanotheragriculturalland(MoguelandToledo1999)andholdmore
    carbonstocks(vanRikxoortetal.2014).Therefore,conversionfromnaturalforesttocoffee
    wouldhaveanegativeenvironmentalimpact,butconversionfromopenlandtocoffee
    plantationscouldhaveapositiveeffect.

    3 Results
    3.1 Currentcoffeesuitability
    ThetrainedandtestedmodelsextrapolatedontorasterdataforWorldClims19bioclimatic
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    8/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    variablesgaveaglobalmapofcurrentsuitabilityforcoffeeproduction(Fig.2).Thelargest
    areassuitableforC.arabicaareintheBrazilianstateofMinasGerais.Otherhighlysuitable
    areasareinCentralAmericaandtheEthiopianhighlands.Madagascarisalsohighlysuitable
    despitenotbeingamajorproducertoday.OtherAfricanandAsiansitesareratedas
    intermediateclimaticsuitabilityforproductionofArabica.

    Fig.2
    Currentsuitabilitydistributionforcoffee.Darkgreyindicateshighsuitability,lightgreyintermediate
    suitability.Hatchingindicatesthespecies

    LargerareashighlysuitableforC.canephoraareintheBrazilianEspiritoSantoregion,West
    Africa,thelowerregionsofCentralAmericaandinmountainouslocationsinAsia,especially
    thePhilippines,IndonesiaandVietnam.

    3.2 Futurecoffeesuitability
    Wecalculatedthedifferencebetweencurrentandfuture(2050)meansuitabilityscores.Forthe
    RCP6.0scenario,Fig.3(AD)showsthechangesinsuitabilityforthecurrentdominant
    productionregionsofC.arabicainLatinAmerica,Brazil,Asiaandthecenteroforiginofthe
    speciesinEastAfrica.TheBrazilianproductionregionslosesuitabilitywithpossiblepositive
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    9/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    changesatitssouthernmargin.IntherestofLatinAmerica,higheraltitudesbecomemore
    suitablethanatpresent.InEastAfricatherearepositivechangesinsuitabilityintheEthiopian,
    UgandanandKenyanhighlands.InIndonesiaandthePhilippinestherearepatternsofaltitudinal
    migrationsimilartoSouthAmerica.

    Fig.3
    Suitabilitychangesbythe2050sintheRCP6.0scenarioAD:Arabica,EG:Robusta.Hatching
    indicatesthecurrentsuitabilitydistributionWarmcolorsrepresentareaswithnegativeclimatechange
    impactsandcoldcolorspositivechanges

    Figure3(EG)showsthechangesinsuitabilityforC.canephoraby2050intheRCP6.0
    scenarioinBrazil,itscenteroforigininWestAfrica,andthemostimportantregionofRobusta
    productioninSouthEastAsiaandtheAsianislandstates.TheBrazilianstatesofRondoniaand
    EspiritoSantomayseeseverelossesofsuitability.TheCongobasinandcoastalregionsofWest
    Africahavedecreasedsuitability.Incontrast,suitabilityislikelytoincreaseathigheraltitudes
    alongtheequator.InSouthEastAsiathedominantVietnameseproductionregionslose
    suitability.
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    10/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    MapsfortheRCP2.6andRCP8.5emissionscenariosareintheSupplementaryMaterial
    (Fig.S12).Thecoefficientofvariationacrossthe5GCMsisinSupplementaryMaterial
    Fig.S3.TheCVisgenerallylow,withtheexceptionoftheregionaroundBrasiliainBrazil
    whereitisupto100%forC.arabica.

    3.3 Distributionofclimatechangeimpacts
    Thesuitabilityscoresindicatehowlikelyitisthatalocationisclimaticallysuitableforcoffee
    productionandahighersumofscoresmeansthesuitableareaislarger.Thesumofsuitability
    scoresacrosslatitudinalmeridiansforcurrentclimateconditionsandGCMoutputsforscenario
    RCP2.6,RCP6.0andRCP8.5areshowninFig.4a.C.arabicalosessuitabilityacrossall
    latitudes,althoughathighlatitudesthelossesarenotaspronounced.Theonlypositivechange
    canbeobservedataround27S.LossesofsuitabilityforC.canephorawillmostlyoccuratlow
    latitudes.

    Fig.4
    Distributionofsuitabilitychangesbyalatitude,baltitude,ccoffeeregionsContinuouslinesrepresentC.
    arabica,dashedlinesC.canephora,blacklinesthecurrentdistribution,coloredlinesfuturedistributionthe
    errorbarsindicatetheminimumandmaximumacrossRCP6.0modelmeans

    ThesumofsuitabilityscoresindiscretealtitudeclassesforbothC.arabicaandC.canephora
    by2050(meanedforeachRCPscenario)comparedwithcurrentconditionsisshowninFig.4b.
    Bothspeciesloselargesharesoftotalsuitabilitymostlyinlowaltitudesbelow1000maslwhile
    therewillbelessrelativelossesathigheraltitudes.
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    11/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    ThesumofsuitabilityscoresformajorcoffeeregionsforcurrentconditionsandmeansforRCP
    scenariosby2050isshowninFig.4c.ThelargestlossofsuitabilityisinBrazilandSouthEast
    AsiaforArabicacoffee,whereaccumulatedsuitabilityscoresdecreaseby85%inRCP8.5and
    30%inRCP2.6.TheleastimpactonArabicaisprojectedforEastAfricaandthePacificIsland
    regionwith10%ofsuitabilitylostintheRCP2.6scenarioandupto30%intheRCP8.5
    scenario.Globally,lossesareprojectedtobe49%ofoverallsuitabilityscorelostintheRCP
    6.0scenario(SupplementarymaterialTableS.3).
    C.canephorasuitabilitywillbelostintheCongobasinwith60%(RCP2.6)to95%(RCP8.5)
    oftotalsuitabilitylostinthecenteroforiginofthespecies.Again,EastAfricaisprojectedto
    facetheleastimpact.IntheRCP2.6scenariothelossofsuitabilitywillbebetween16%andup
    to30%intheRCP8.5scenario.ThreeoftheimportantRobustaproductionregions,Brazil,
    SouthEastAsiaandWestAfrica,areprojectedtoexperiencelossesofabout60%ofsuitability
    score.ThegloballossesarehigherforRobusta(54%)thanforArabica.Eveninthelowimpact
    scenarioRCP2.6lossescouldbe51%forRobusta(SupplementaryMaterialTableS.3).
    InFig.5thechangesinsuitabilityaredistributedaccordingtolanduseclassesinthecoffee
    producingregionsby2050intheRCP6.0scenario.Globally,lossesandgainsinsuitabilityare
    nearlyequallydistributedacrosstheareawithforestcoverandwithoutforestcover.Novelareas
    makeuponlyabout10%oflostsuitabilityforbothspecies,however.TheexceptionsforC.
    arabicaareinBrazil,EastAfricaandtheAsianislands.InBrazil90%ofsuitabilitylossesare
    forareaswithoutforestcover.InEastAfricaallthesuitablearealostthatisnotcurrently
    forestedmaybereplacedwithnovelareathatisalsonotcurrentlyforested.InAsia,however,
    nearlyallsuitabilitygainsareinareasthatarecurrentlyforested.

    Fig.5
    Distributionofsuitabilitychangesbyregionandthelanduseclasseswithforestcoverandwithoutforest
    coverby2050underRCP6.0aC.arabicabC.canephora

    C.canephorashowsasimilarpattern.InWestAfrica90%ofsuitabilitylossesoccuronland
    withoutforestcover,whileintheAsianislands,PhilippinesandIndonesia,gainswillbeonland
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    12/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    withforestcover.ForRobustamostofthesuitabilitylossesinEastAfricaalsomaybereplaced
    bygainsonopenland.IntheCongobasinlargelossesofsuitabilityforbothspecieswillbeon
    forestedland.

    3.4 Modelvalidation
    AUCvalueswereconsistentlyhighacrossallmodelsetups.ThelowestAUCvalueforArabica
    coffeewas0.92and0.73forRobusta,indicatingthatthemodelsperformmuchbetterthan
    chanceatdiscerningpresencefrombackgroundlocations.Consideringthevaluesthatwe
    comparedtotheperformanceofasimplenullmodel,cAUC,mostofthemodelsperformed
    betterthanthedistancebasedmodel.AllmodelsforArabicacoffeewerebetterthanthenull
    modelaccordingtocAUC.TheRobustamodelsperformedbetterthanthenullmodelin74%of
    thecasesaccordingtocAUC.

    3.5 Variablecontribution
    ThemostimportantvariableforArabicawasthemeantemperatureofthewarmestquarter.This
    wasfollowedbymaximumtemperatureofthewarmestmonthandmeantemperatureofthe
    wettestquarter.Precipitationvariablesrankedasleastimportant,especiallyprecipitationofthe
    driestquarterandmonth(Bio14and16).Amongthetemperaturevariables,temperature
    variability(Bio2andBio7)wasleastimportant.
    Incontrast,thevariablesthatrankedconsistentlyhighforRobustawerethemeandiurnalrange
    oftemperature(Bio2)andtheannualtemperaturerange(Bio7).Thiswasfollowedby
    maximumtemperatureofthewarmestmonth.Precipitationvariablesweremoreimportantfor
    RobustathanforArabica,withintraannualvariationofprecipitation(Bio15)rankedthe
    highest.Leastimportantweretemperatureinthecoldestquarter(Bio11)andprecipitation
    duringthecoldestquarter(Bio19)(SupplementaryMaterialTableS.2).

    4 Discussion
    Thegoalofthisstudywastoexaminetheimplicationsofclimatechangeforglobalcoffee
    production.AnalysisofchangesinsuitabilityundertheRCP6.0scenarioshowsthatclimate
    changemayreduceproductionofArabicacoffeeinmanyareas,especiallyinBrazil.Robusta
    mayalsobelesssuitableinimportantregionsinBrazilandVietnam.Gainselsewherewilldo
    littletooffsettheselosses,givinggloballossesinsuitabilityforbothspeciesofabout50%.
    OnlyEastAfricaandtheAsianislandstatesshowsubstantialgainsinsuitabilityforboth
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    13/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    species.
    Wedevelopedamethodologythatisbasedonthenotionthatanensembleofmodelscaptures
    morerelevantinformationthanasinglemodelcan.Byusingameanofmodelsbasedonseveral
    feasibleparametercombinationsratherthanasinglemodelouranalysisismorerobustthan
    previousregionalstudies.Theextrapolationofthemodelswithspatiallyexplicitclimate
    informationgaveglobalmapsofbothC.arabicaandC.canephorathatindicatesuitability
    scoresinregionsofmajorproduction.Weappliedtheunderlyingmodelstotheoutputsoffive
    globalclimatemodelsfortheRCP2.6,RCP6.0andRCP8.5emissionscenarios.Weaveraged
    acrossemissionsscenariostoproducemapsandanalyzedthechangeinsuitabilityscores.
    Bothspeciesshowimportantchangesinaccumulatedsuitabilityscoresatlowerlatitudes,which
    becomelessnegative,albeitnotpositive,athigherlatitudes.Asouthwardlatitudinalmigration
    wasalsoproposedbyZulloetal.(2011)inaregionalstudyinBrazil.However,wedidnotfind
    suchimpactsofclimatechangeinotherregions.Moreover,thegainsinsuitabilityinsouthern
    Brazilmaynotbeenoughtocompensateforlossesinsuitabilityoverlargeareaselsewhere.
    Similarly,lossesinsuitabilityaremostlyatlowaltitudeswhilehigheraltitudesgainin
    suitability.Schrothetal.(2009)andSimonett(1988)identifiedsimilaraltitudinalmigrationfor
    ArabicainCentralAmericaandforRobustainUganda,respectively.Theselocalstudies
    confirmouranalysis,whichshowsthataltitudinalmigrationofcoffeeproductionwilllikelybe
    aglobaltrend.Themagnitudeofthiseffect,however,dependsonhowclimatechangewill
    impactlocalconditions.
    IthaspreviouslybeenhypothesizedthatRobustaproductionmaybeabletoreplaceinpartthe
    lossesinArabicaproductionduetoclimatechange.ThehypothesisrestsonthenotionthatC.
    arabicaisheatsensitiveandwouldthussufferinahotterworld.Incontrast,C.canephoracan
    toleratehighertemperaturesandcouldthusreplaceheatstressedArabicacoffee.Thisscenario
    maybeviableinsomeregions,butouranalysisemphasizesthatC.canephoraneedsclimates
    withlittleintraseasonalvariability.ThislimitstheRobustacroptolowlatitudes.Also,as
    climatemaynotonlybecomehotter,butalsomorevariable,thismayaggravatenegativeeffects
    onRobustacoffeeproduction.Thus,globallybothspeciesappeartobeequallyaffectedby
    climatechange.ItisnoteworthythattheCongobasin,thecenteroforiginofC.canephora,may
    becomeunsuitableforthespeciesby2050inthehighemissionsscenario.Thiswarrantsfurther
    investigationasmanyseeindigenousvarietiesasthekeytoadaptcoffeetoclimatechange.
    WefoundthatArabicaproductioninEasternAfricaislessimpactedthaninotherregions.In
    contrast,Davisetal.(2012)proposedsubstantialreductionintheareasuitableforindigenous
    ArabicavarietiesinEasternAfrica.Ourdataarebasedonthedistributionofcommercial
    plantations,whichhaveadaptedtoabroaderrangeofclimatesthanthoseofArabicasnative
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    14/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    range.Thisdifferencesuggeststhatinareaswherecoffeeproductionremainsfeasible
    productionsystemswillhavetobeadapted.Thenecessaryfundamentalchangesinlocal
    productionsystemswouldposesubstantialchallengestosmallholderfarmers.
    Moreover,giventhelonglifespanofcoffeeplantationsthefeasibilityofmigratingcoffeeto
    landthatwillbemoresuitableunderclimatechangeneedsfurtherstudy.TheareasofEast
    Africathatwillbecomemoresuitableforcoffeearecurrentlynotforested,incontrasttothe
    Asianareasthatwillgainsuitability,whichcurrentlyareunderforest.Climateinduced
    migrationmaythusresultinfurtheremissionsfromlandusechange.Whetherornotnewly
    suitableareaswillbethreatenedbyconversiontoagriculturedependsoneconomicincentives.
    OuranalysisshowsthathighlyproductiveareasofcoffeeinBrazilandVietnammaybecome
    unsuitableforcoffeeinthefuture.Worldmarketsmaythuscreateeconomicopportunitiesin
    EastAfrica,butmayinduceadditionaldeforestationinAsia,wherecoffeeisalreadyafrontier
    crop.Policymakersneedtobeawarethatthesearechallengesthattheywillneedtoconfront.
    Acknowledgments
    ThisresearchwasconductedundertheCGIARResearchProgramonClimateChange,Agricultureand
    FoodSecurity(CCAFS).ChristianBunnreceivedaKlimafolgenforschungfellowshipthroughthe
    StiftungHumboldtUniversitt.WethankourcolleaguesattheDataandPolicyAnalysisgroupatCIATfor
    theirsupportandhelpfulcomments.WealsothankDr.MylesFisherforhiscarefulrevisionofthe
    manuscript.

    OpenAccessThisarticleisdistributedunderthetermsoftheCreativeCommonsAttribution
    Licensewhichpermitsanyuse,distribution,andreproductioninanymedium,providedthe
    originalauthor(s)andthesourcearecredited.

    Electronicsupplementarymaterial
    Belowisthelinktotheelectronicsupplementarymaterial.
    ESM1
    (DOCX15419kb)

    References
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    15/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    AnthonyF,BertrandB,QuirosOetal(2001)Geneticdiversityofwildcoffee(Coffeaarabica
    L.)usingmolecularmarkers.Euphytica118:5365.doi:10.
    1023/
    A:
    1004013815166
    CrossRef
    AraujoM,NewM(2007)Ensembleforecastingofspeciesdistributions.TrendsEcolEvol
    22:4247.doi:10.
    1016/
    j.
    tree.
    2006.
    09.
    010
    CrossRef
    BacaM,LderachP,HaggarJetal(2014)Anintegratedframeworkforassessingvulnerability
    toclimatechangeanddevelopingadaptationstrategiesforcoffeegrowingfamiliesin
    Mesoamerica.PLoSONE9:e88463.doi:10.
    1371/
    journal.
    pone.
    0088463
    CrossRef
    BarbetMassinM,JiguetF,AlbertCH,ThuillerW(2012)Selectingpseudoabsencesfor
    speciesdistributionmodels:how,whereandhowmany?MethodsEcolEvol3:327338.doi:10.
    1111/
    j.
    2041210X.
    2011.
    00172.
    x
    CrossRef
    BhattS,GethingPW,BradyOJetal(2013)Theglobaldistributionandburdenofdengue.
    Nature496:504507
    CrossRef
    BreimanL(2001)RandomForests.MachLearn45:532.doi:10.
    1023/
    A:
    1010933404324
    CrossRef
    DaMattaFM(2004)Ecophysiologicalconstraintsontheproductionofshadedandunshaded
    coffee:areview.FieldCropRes86:99114.doi:10.
    1016/
    j.
    fcr.
    2003.
    09.
    001
    CrossRef
    DavisAP,GoleTW,BaenaS,MoatJ(2012)Theimpactofclimatechangeonindigenous
    arabicacoffee(coffeaarabica):predictingfuturetrendsandidentifyingpriorities.PLoSONE
    7:e47981.doi:10.
    1371/
    journal.
    pone.
    0047981
    CrossRef
    deBeenhouwerM,AertsR,HonnayO(2013)Aglobalmetaanalysisofthebiodiversityand
    ecosystemservicebenefitsofcoffeeandcacaoagroforestry.AgricEcosystEnviron175:17
    CrossRef
    DinizFilhoJAF,MauricioBiniL,FernandoRangelTetal(2009)Partitioningandmapping
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    16/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    uncertaintiesinensemblesofforecastsofspeciesturnoverunderclimatechange.Ecography
    32:897906.doi:10.
    1111/
    j.
    16000587.
    2009.
    06196.
    x
    CrossRef
    DudkM,PhillipsSJ,SchapireRE(2005)Correctingsampleselectionbiasinmaximum
    entropydensityestimation.Advancesinneuralinformationprocessingsystems.pp323330
    ElithJ,GrahamCH(2009)Dothey?Howdothey?Whydotheydiffer?Onfindingreasonsfor
    differingperformancesofspeciesdistributionmodels.Ecography32:6677.doi:10.
    1111/
    j.
    16000587.
    2008.
    05505.
    x
    CrossRef
    ElithJ,PhillipsSJ,HastieTetal(2011)AstatisticalexplanationofMaxEntforecologists.
    DiversDistrib17:4357.doi:10.
    1111/
    j.
    14724642.
    2010.
    00725.
    x
    CrossRef
    EskesAB,LeroyT(2008)CoffeeSelectionandBreeding.Coffee:Growing,Processing,
    SustainableProduction.WileyVCHVerlagGmbH,pp5786
    EuropeanCommission(2003)GlobalLandCover2000database.http://
    bioval.
    jrc.
    ec.
    europa.
    eu/
    products/
    glc2000/
    glc2000.
    php.Accessed21Dec2012
    GayGarciaC,EstradaF,CondeCetal(2006)Potentialimpactsofclimatechangeon
    agriculture:acaseofstudyofcoffeeproductioninVeracruz,Mexico.ClimChang79:259288.
    doi:10.
    1007/
    s105840069066x
    CrossRef
    HannahL,RoehrdanzPR,IkegamiMetal(2013)Climatechange,wine,andconservation.Proc
    NatlAcadSci110:69076912.doi:10.
    1073/
    pnas.
    1210127110
    CrossRef
    HijmansRJ(2012)Crossvalidationofspeciesdistributionmodels:removingspatialsorting
    biasandcalibrationwithanullmodel.Ecology93:679688
    CrossRef
    HijmansRJ,CameronSE,ParraJLetal(2005)Veryhighresolutioninterpolatedclimate
    surfacesforgloballandareas.IntJClimatol25:19651978
    CrossRef
    IBGE(2012)SistemaIBGEdeRecuperaoAutomticaSIDRA.In:IBGE.http://
    sidra.
    ibge.
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    17/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    gov.
    br/
    .Accessed28Mar2013
    ICO(2013)InternationalCoffeeOrganizationHistoricaldata.In:HistoricalData.http://
    www.
    ico.
    org/
    new_
    historical.
    asp?
    section=
    Statistics.Accessed29Jan2014
    KaratzoglouA,MeyerD,HornikK(2006)SupportVectorMachinesinR.JournalofStatistical
    Software15:
    KuhnM(2008)BuildingpredictivemodelsinRusingthecaretpackage.JStatSoftw28:126
    LaderachP,HaggarJ,LauCetal(2009)Mesoamericancoffee:buildingaclimatechange
    adaptationstrategy.CIAT,Cali
    LoboJM,JimnezValverdeA,RealR(2008)AUC:amisleadingmeasureoftheperformance
    ofpredictivedistributionmodels.GlobEcolBiogeogr17:145151.doi:10.
    1111/
    j.
    14668238.
    2007.
    00358.
    x
    CrossRef
    MerowC,SmithMJ,SilanderJA(2013)ApracticalguidetoMaxEntformodelingspecies
    distributions:whatitdoes,andwhyinputsandsettingsmatter.Ecographynono.doi:10.
    1111/
    j.
    16000587.
    2013.
    07872.
    x
    MoguelP,ToledoVM(1999)Review:biodiversityconservationintraditionalcoffeesystemsof
    Mexico.ConservBiol13:1121
    CrossRef
    PendergrastM(1999)Uncommongrounds:thehistoryofcoffeeandhowittransformedour
    world.BasicBooks
    PhillipsSJ,AndersonRP,SchapireRE(2006)Maximumentropymodelingofspecies
    geographicdistributions.EcolModel190:231259.doi:10.
    1016/
    j.
    ecolmodel.
    2005.
    03.
    026
    CrossRef
    PrasadAM,IversonLR,LiawA(2006)Newerclassificationandregressiontreetechniques:
    baggingandrandomforestsforecologicalprediction.Ecosystems9:181199
    CrossRef
    RamirezJ,JarvisA(2010)Disaggregationofglobalcirculationmodeloutputs.International
    centerfortropicalagriculture.CIAT,Cali
    SchrothG,LaderachP,DempewolfJetal(2009)Towardsaclimatechangeadaptationstrategy
    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    18/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    forcoffeecommunitiesandecosystemsintheSierraMadredeChiapas,Mexico.MitigAdapt
    StrategGlobChang14:605625
    CrossRef
    SimonettO(1988)UsingGISinaGlobalContext:TheGlobalResourceInformationDatabase
    (GRID).Proceedings,EighthAnnualESRIUserConference
    StockerTF,QinD,PlattnerGK,etal.(2013)ClimateChange2013.ThePhysicalScience
    Basis.WorkingGroupIContributiontotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmental
    PanelonClimateChangeAbstractfordecisionmakers.Groupedexpertsintergouvernemental
    surlevolutionduclimat/IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeIPCC,C/OWorld
    MeteorologicalOrganization,7bisAvenuedelaPaix,CP2300CH1211Geneva2
    (Switzerland)
    USDA(2012)PSDOnlineHome.In:Production,SupplyandDistributionOnline.http://
    www.
    fas.
    usda.
    gov/
    psdonline/
    .Accessed21Dec2012
    vanderWalJ,ShooLP,GrahamC,WilliamsSE(2009)Selectingpseudoabsencedatafor
    presenceonlydistributionmodeling:howfarshouldyoustrayfromwhatyouknow?Ecol
    Model220:589594
    CrossRef
    vanRikxoortH,SchrothG,LderachP,RodriguezSanchezB(2014)Carbonfootprintsand
    carbonstocksrevealclimatefriendlycoffeeproduction.AgronSustainDev.doi:10.
    1007/
    s1359301402238
    vanVuurenDP,EdmondsJ,KainumaMetal(2011)Therepresentativeconcentration
    pathways:anoverview.ClimChang109:531
    CrossRef
    WarszawskiL,FrielerK,HuberVetal(2014)Theintersectoralimpactmodelintercomparison
    project(ISIMIP):projectframework.ProcNatlAcadSci111:32283232.doi:10.
    1073/
    pnas.
    1312330110
    CrossRef
    WeigelAP,LinigerMA,AppenzellerC(2008)Canmultimodelcombinationreallyenhance
    thepredictionskillofprobabilisticensembleforecasts?QJRMeteorolSoc134:241260
    CrossRef

    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    19/20

    12/17/2014

    Abittercup:climatechangeprofileofglobalproductionofArabicaandRobustacoffeeSpringer

    WintgensJN(ed)(2009)Coffee:growing,processing,sustainableproductionaguidebookfor
    growers,processors,traders,andresearchers,2ndedn.WileyVCH,Weinheim
    ZulloJ,PintoHS,AssadED,vilaAMH(2011)PotentialforgrowingArabicacoffeeinthe
    extremesouthofBrazilinawarmerworld.ClimChang.doi:10.
    1007/
    s1058401100580
    Over8.5millionscientificdocumentsatyourfingertips
    SpringerInternationalPublishingAG,PartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia

    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s105840141306x/fulltext.html

    20/20

    You might also like