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Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems:

Technology, Planning, and Operations
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Perspectives on Future Transportation Research:

Impact of Intelligent Transportation System
Technologies on Next-Generation Transportation
Modeling
a

Bin Ran , Peter J. Jin , David Boyce , Tony Z. Qiu & Yang Cheng

Department of Civil and Environment Engineering , University of WisconsinMadison ,

Madison , Wisconsin , USA
b

Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering , The University of

Texas at Austin , Austin , Texas , USA
c

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering , Northwestern University , Evanston ,

Illinois , USA
d

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering , University of Alberta , Edmonton ,

Alberta , Canada
Accepted author version posted online: 12 Jul 2012.Published online: 01 Nov 2012.

To cite this article: Bin Ran , Peter J. Jin , David Boyce , Tony Z. Qiu & Yang Cheng (2012) Perspectives on Future
Transportation Research: Impact of Intelligent Transportation System Technologies on Next-Generation Transportation
Modeling, Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems: Technology, Planning, and Operations, 16:4, 226-242, DOI:
10.1080/15472450.2012.710158
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15472450.2012.710158

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Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems, 16(4):226242, 2012

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ISSN: 1547-2450 print / 1547-2442 online
DOI: 10.1080/15472450.2012.710158

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Review Article

Perspectives on Future
Transportation Research: Impact
of Intelligent Transportation System
Technologies on Next-Generation
Transportation Modeling
BIN RAN,1 PETER J. JIN,2 DAVID BOYCE,3 TONY Z. QIU,4
and YANG CHENG1
1

Department of Civil and Environment Engineering, University of WisconsinMadison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA
3
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA
4
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
2

In this paper, we attempt to summarize the impact of technologies, especially intelligent transportation system (ITS) technologies, on transportation research during the last several decades and provide perspectives on how future transportation
research may be affected by the availability and development of new ITS technologies. The intended audience of the paper
includes young transportation researchers and professionals. Current transportation models are divided into generations
based on their technological and practical background. Based on the trends in the past and the potential technologies to
be implemented in the future, general characteristics of the next generations of transportation models are proposed and
discussed to provide a vision regarding expected future achievements in transportation research. This paper is intended to
be a working document, in the sense that it will be updated periodically.
Keywords: Intelligent Transportation Systems; Next-Generation Transportation Models; Transportation Research

INTRODUCTION
Transportation research deals with a complex real-world
system, the transportation system. It covers the theoretical principles and practical techniques that can be implemented and
applied in various aspects, including planning, design, construction, operations, safety, and so on. One special character of
transportation research is that it evolves intensively with technological innovations. In some sense, the entire transportation
Special thanks to Professor David Noyce, University of Wisconsin at Madison, for an inspiring discussion regarding the traffic safety and control subarea
of transportation research. The authors also thank six anonymous reviewers for
their insightful comments and suggestions.
Address correspondence to Bin Ran, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of WisconsinMadison, 1415 Engineering Drive,
Madison, WI 53706, USA. E-mail: bran@wisc.edu

system is built upon the interaction between human and technologies. Technologies not only promote new ways of observing, monitoring, and managing transportation systems but also
have the ability to change the basic characteristics of the transportation system fundamentally. The fundamental diagram relationship among speed, flow, and density (Greenshields, 1935)
in the 1930s was one of the earliest and most representative
transportation models. Since then, transportation research has
advanced significantly both in breadth and in depth with respect
to almost all aspects of the transportation system, especially
with the development of intelligent transportation system (ITS)
technologies since the 1990s.
A critical problem for a novice transportation researcher
nowadays is that it is easier to understand a detailed research
topic than to initiate fundamental thinking about transportation

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PERSPECTIVES ON FUTURE TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH

and to understand how transportation research has evolved and

advanced during the last centuries. The purposes of this paper
are (a) to sort out the motivations and ways of thinking that lie
behind transportation research; (b) to review how technologies
and practical needs affected transportation research in the past
decades; and (c) to explore what to expect in future transportation research as new ITS technologies become available. The
intended audiences of this paper are the young generations of
researchers, ranging from graduate students to young scientists
and engineers. This paper may not include every detailed aspect
of transportation research, given the limited resources and time.
Moreover, this paper is intended to be a working document to be
updated over the years. An earlier attempt to describe the state
of current research problems and future prospects for innovation was based on a conference held in 1985 and published as a
special issue of Transportation Research (Boyce, 1985).

EVOLUTION OF TRANSPORTATION MODELS

Transportation models can be classified in many different
ways. In this paper, however, we are more interested in tracking
the evolution of transportation models in response to the trends
in technology advance, methodology concepts, and practical
requirements over a long time horizon. From this perspective,
transportation models can be classified into different generations. By summarizing what has been achieved in the past generations, we can offer some projections of what may be expected
in future generations (e.g., the next 30 years) of transportation
models, considering some promising ITS technologies being or
expected to be implemented. If one looks back into the history
of the transportation research, three major waves can be identified. The first wave began in the 1950s with the construction
and massive use of freeway systems worldwide (U.S. Interstate, based on earlier experience with the German autobahn
and American turnpikes), which provided a new perspective
in transportation engineering. Researchers and engineers have
been motivated to study the detailed characteristics of the new
transportation systems and explore methods of operating and
managing the expanding system (Weiner, 2009). Due to the difficulty and complexity of collecting data at that time, models
during this period were primarily empirical and static. Models
and theories are developed based on either ideal assumptions, or
very limited experimental and survey data. However, they still
serve as basic guidelines that help plan, construct, and operate
the early transportation systems. Transportation models developed during this time period (1950s to 1980s) are here referred
to as first-generation models.
The second wave was triggered by the rapid development of
information technologies after 1980, as well as the legislation
progress regarding transportation systems, such as ISTEA
(Gage & McDowell, 1995), which is the emergence of the
intelligent transportation system (ITS) technologies. During
this time period, the most critical issue that emerged was the
balance between the limited supply that can be added to the

227

existing infrastructure and the ever-growing travel demand.

Different approaches have been taken, including explore
the additional capacity from the existing infrastructure and
using planning strategies to balance the transportation supply
and demand (Meyer & Miller, 2000) by promote alternative
transportation modes. Tackling such issues relies on more
detailed and dynamic information regarding traveler demand
and road conditions. Information technologies, along with the
development in vehicle sensing technologies, allow engineers
and researchers to collect, analyze, model, and predict transportation phenomena more rapidly, more efficiently, and more
accurately than ever before. During this period, dynamic, statistical, and disaggregated transportation models with rigorous
formulations and efficient numerical methods originating from
physics, economics, computer science, and other scientific
fields, suitable for network or system performance evaluation,
were widely developed. We refer to models that have these
features and that emerged during the 1980s to 2000s as
second-generation models. Most early ITS models lie within
this generation, even though the scope of ITS has been greatly
extended by more advanced technologies and models.
The third and current wave has been primarily driven by
rapidly growing wireless communication technologies in the
new century. Reliable connectivity between all elements (human, vehicle, and infrastructure) in transportation systems can
now be achieved. Such connectivity facilitates not only the realtime data collection of transportation systems but also the active coordination of vehicles in real-time. Models in this period
have the characteristics of real-time capability, active control,
and integration among different data sources and different applications. However, these models still assume that the natural characteristics of flow in the transportation system, such
as human driving, local perception, and so on, will remain
largely unchanged. With the future development of communication technologies along with smart vehicle technologies in
the automobile industry, fully automated and controlled transportation systems may become possible. This advance may start
the next wave in transportation model development, since traffic flow can be changed fundamentally to automated, proactive,
well-informed, and fully controlled flow, which may be triggered by several new technologies that are under development
such as cloud computing (Armbrust et al., 2009), Internet of
Things (CASAGRAS Research, 2010), and distributed computing (Attiya et al., 2004). Fourth-generation models in this wave
may be highly integrated, highly reliable, distributed, and system optimized based on the above new characteristics of traffic
flow. There are several key differences between the third- and
fourth-generation models. First of all, the third-generation models deal with the increased automation in driving and traveling
with the development of the connected vehicle technologies,
while the fourth-generation models study the potential fully
automated traveling in the future. The difficulty in the thirdgeneration models is to describe the impact of the increased
connectivity and control within mixed noninformed, informed,
and connected driving and traveling, while the difficulty in the

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B. RAN ET AL.

fourth-generation model is to explore system-wide and customized solutions to stochastic travel demand by data mining
over the massive amount of data. The latter one may sound trivial
but is, in fact, a very complicated system optimization problem.
Tables 1 and 2 describe the main objectives, key characteristics, data environment, major applications, and their issues of
each generation of models. The major stages of modeling research and some important applications are also plotted on the
timeline of transportation models in Figure 1.
As illustrated in Figure 1, the division of generations is primarily based on the emerging times of those models, though
many models in the first and second generations were still under
development in research or have been intensively used in practice during later generations. In the rest of this paper, we expand
the summary table into a more detailed discussion regarding
methodology, challenges and opportunities, and theoretical and
technological tools and applications.

EVOLUTION OF METHODOLOGY IN
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH
Transportation models generally can be classified into microscopic, mesoscopic, macroscopic, and metascopic models.
Microscopic models study individual elements of transportation
systems, such as individual vehicle dynamics and individual
traveler behavior. Mesoscopic models analyze transportation
elements in small groups, within which elements are considered
homogeneous. A typical example is vehicle platoon dynamics
and household-level travel behavior. Macroscopic models deal
with aggregated characteristics of transportation elements,
such as aggregated traffic flow dynamics and zonal-level travel
demand analysis.
Major research objects in transportation engineering include
traffic flow, travel behavior, transportation networks, traffic control and management, freight systems, and other transportation
modes. The study on traffic flow includes its micro-, meso-, and
macroscopic characteristics, human factors, autonomous vehicles, and so on. Common approaches include empirical studies,
and statistical and computer science modeling motivated by
new data collection technologies. Theories and models developed for similar physical objects, such as fluid and particles,
are sometimes introduced and improved to fit traffic flow characteristics. The research topics of travel behavior include demand analysis, route choice, day-to-day dynamics, and activity
choices. Research methods usually involve survey-based methods and travel choice models that originated from economics
and logistics. Traffic control and management involves the design and management of traffic control devices, traveler information provision, and more recently vehicular communication
system. Optimization and control methods are usually involved.
Transportation network consists of traffic flow, traveler behavior, and traffic control. Its design and performance evaluation
usually rely on integrated models of both planning and operations. The study of freight systems involves the performance,

optimization, and management of commodity flow. Other research objects also include several alternative modes such as
public transportation, bicycles, and pedestrians, which are also
important components in transportation systems and can either
be studied along with behavior model or operational models or
together with passenger vehicles as alternative studies.
These basic research objects remain relatively static
throughout the history of transportation research; however,
models to describe and analyze those objects have evolved from
generation to generation. Meanwhile, technologies play important roles in studying these research objects. More detailed
data sets can reveal new characters of those objects and lead to
new methodologies and models. For example, from traditional
license-plate matching, to inductive loop detectors, and to
probe vehicle technologies, the methodology on estimating
and managing traffic flow dynamics on both freeway and
arterials has evolved from empirical relationship analysis to
complicated traffic state estimation and advanced traffic control
models. Furthermore, similar to the other engineering fields, the
evolution of transportation models usually involves four major
types of contributions: (A) the discovery and introduction of
new principles and relationships, (B) the integration of models,
(C) the relaxation of ideal assumptions, and (D) performance
improvement. The first two types of contributions usually
come during the transition period between major generations;
the second two types of contributions occur regularly during
all periods. The term model is not used in the type A
contribution since this type of contribution only refers to truly
fundamental and original models. Typical examples include the
fundamental diagrams of traffic flow, kinematic models, and
gravity models. One should not underestimate the contributions
of the latter four types of contributions, since usually the first
type of contribution only result in very raw and ideal models
and formulations that sometimes take years to evolve into
practically accurate and efficient models that can be applied in
the real world, which is quite important for a practical field like
transportation. A famous example is the development of the cell
transmission model (Daganzo, 1993), which made solving the
traffic dynamics inferred by LWR model (Lighthill et al., 1955)
truly efficient and scalable for traffic operations, even though
it is a category-D contribution. Table 3 summarizes the major
existing and expected contributions and their corresponding
types in different generations and different types of models.

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

Similar to other engineering fields, transportation research
has always been motivated by practical needs and technology availability. In this section, we discuss the impact of these
two aspects on transportation models, especially the potential
challenges and opportunities that may lead to next-generation
transportation models. As illustrated in Figure 2, the practical requirements for the next generation of models can emerge early
in an old generation, when limitations of existing models are

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Descriptive models
Dynamic model
Statistical models
Partial macroscopic control
Independent models
Behavioral models
Actuated control
Sampled and archived data
Automated traffic management
Indirect and unidirectional
communication
Macroscopic dynamic control
Localized perception
Low market penetration
Limited coverage (spatial/temporal or
both)
Limited accuracy
Limited resolution

Empirical models
Static models

Very limited data

Static data
Empirical data
Basic control

Key characteristics

Data and control

environment

Issues

Lack of dynamic data

Lack of dynamic theories
Suitable for design and
planning, but not reliable for
operations
Planning models lack a clear
relationship to traffic flow
theory
No representation of
interaction at intersections

Early intelligent transportation system

(ITS) technologies
Create potential supply from existing
infrastructure
Balance supply and demand

Massive construction of
transportation infrastructures
Operate early transportation
systems

Technological background

Objectives

Second generation (1980s2000s)

Summary of four generations of transportation models.

First generation (1950s1980s)

Table 1

Heavy data processing

Complex data fusion and
integration
Strong interactions (V2V, V2I,
and I2I)
User interface
Need to accommodate the
transition from autonomous
vehicle to fully controlled
vehicles
Privacy and system security
(Hubaux et al., 2004)

Wireless communication
technologies
Accommodate both human and
automated driving
Active supply and demand
management
Rich data environment
Partial macroscopic/microscopic
control
Interaction with vehicular
network
Transition between human and
automated traveling
Detailed real-time and archived
data
Direct and bidirectional
communication
High market penetration

Third generation (2000snear

future decades)

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Data mining on massive data

Integration with existing
information and control systems
System reliability and robustness
User-oriented services
Stochastic demand management
Privacy and system security

High-resolution real-time and

archived data
User specific control
Full or near-full market penetration

Massive data environment

Automated environment
Fully integrated models
Feedback-control models
System optimal

Cloud computing, Internet of

Things, supercomputers
Real-time control and management
of transportation systems
Proactive control and management

Fourth generation (2000sdistant

future decades)

PERSPECTIVES ON FUTURE TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH

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vol. 16 no. 4 2012

Highway Capacity Manual

(1950, 1965, 1985)
Traffic Flow Monograph
(1964, 1975)
A Policy on Geometric
Design (AASHTO, 1984,
1990, 1994)
Traffic Flow Fundamentals
(May 1990)
Long-range forecasts
Ramp control
Sequential models
Entropy models (Wilson,
1970
Aggregated zone-based
models
Early gravity models (1955)
Diversion curves)
Basic fundamental diagrams
Statistical features of traffic
state variables
Websters models (1958)
Kinematic wave models
(1955)
Early Car-following models
(1950s)
Aggregate trip-generation
methods
BPR gravity and traffic
assignment models (1960s)
(Brokke, 1969)
TRANPLAN (1960s, Chang
et al., 1988)
UTPS (1970s, Dial, 1976)

Third generation (2000sfuture)

Future versions of previous documents
(e.g., HCM, HSM, Traffic Flow
Monograph etc.)
Operations Models
Variational Models
Active Traffic Control Models
RHODES (Mirchandani and Lucas,
2001)
Planning Models
IBM: Smart Planet (2008)
Activity-based models
DYNAST
DYNAMEQ (2001)
AMOS (1998)
SACSIM (2008)
Vovsha (2004)
URBANSIM (1998)
Behavioral models
Safety Models:
Driver simulators

Second generation (1980s2000s)

Highway Capacity Manual (2000, 2010)
Traffic Flow Monograph (2001)
Travel Time Data Collection Handbook
(2001)
Highway Safety Manual (2010)
A Policy on Geometric Design
(AASHTO, 2001, 2004, 2011)
MUTCD (1961, 1971, 1978, 1988, 2000,
2003, 2009)
High-order continuum models
Kinetic models
Traffic state estimation models
Traffic control models
Incident detection, duration, and impact
models (Payne et al. 1978, Khattak et al.
1995)
TRIPS (1970s)
Multinomial logit and nestedlogit models
Household-based trip generation
Dynamic traffic assignment
Stochastic traffic assignment
DYNASMART (1992)
VISSIM/VISUM (1992), MITSIM (1996),
PARAMICS (1997), AIMSUN (1997),
CORSIM (1998)
FREFLOW (1979), METANET (1992),
KRONOS (1984)
SATURN (1986), TRANSIMS (1995)
CUBE, EMME /2, TransCAD, VISUM
(Florian 1999, 2008, Slavin, 2004)
SCOOT (1980s), SCATS (1982),
SIDRA(Akcelik) (1983)

Note. The year in parentheses indicates the year of the occurrence of a model or document.

Application areas (expand)

operations, planning,
control, behavior, design,
safety

First generation
(1950s1980s)

Table 2 Applications in or expected in each generation of transportation models.

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Dynamic traffic control

Planning models, demand models,
supply models
Behavioral models
Microscopic traffic control

Fourth generation (2000sfuture)

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231

Figure 1 Timeline of major stages and applications of four generations of transportation models (HCM: Highway Capacity Manual, TFT: Traffic Flow Theory
Monograph, HSM: Highway Safety Manual).

Figure 2 Practical requirements over each generation of transportation models.

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Fundamental diagrams (Category

A, Greenshields, 1935)
LWR models (Category A,
Lighthill & Whitham, 1956)
Intersection delay model
(Category A, Webster, 1958)
Zonal models (Category A)
Gravity models (Category A,
Voorhees, 1955; Sen & Smith,
1995)
Planning simulation models
(Category B, TRANPLAN,
UTPS)
Traffic assignment models
(Category A, Beckmann et al.,
1956; Sheffi, 1985; Patriksson,
1994; Mertz, 1961)

Macroscopic(aggregated)

Note. Items in sqauare brackets indicate the expected contributions.

Platoon analysis (Category A,

Treiterer et al., 1973)

Discrete choice models (Category A,

Ben-Akiva et al. 1985; Bhat &
Koppelman, 1993; Koppelman & Wen,
2000)
Microscopic traffic simulation models
(Category B, CORSIM, PARAMICS,
VISSIM, AIMSUN)
Lane-changing models (Category A,
Gipps, 1986)
Mesoscopic traffic simulation models
(Category B, DYNASMART, Hu et al.,
1992)
Household models (A)
High-order continuum models (Category
A, Payne, 1971; Whitham, 1974)
Cell transmission models (Category D,
Daganzo, 1993)
Dynamic traffic assignment (Category A,
Merchant & Nemhauser, 1978a, 1978b;
Ran & Boyce, 1996; Mahmassani et al.,
1984, 1986)
Macroscopic traffic control models
(Category B, Papageorgiou, 1983)
Macroscopic traffic simulation models
(Category B, Messmer & Papageorgiou,
1992; Michalopoulos, 1984)

Car following (Category A, verbars

et al., 1951; Herman et al., 1958)

Mesoscopic(disaggregated)

Microscopic (individual)

Second generation

First generation

Table 3 Evolution of methodology for different models.

[Active traffic and demand

management] (Category B)
[Integration models with
micro- and meso-models]
(Category B)
[Connected vehicle data-based
macroscopic models]
(Category D)

Automated vehicle characteristics]

(A)
[Automated vehicle control] (A)

Activity models (Category A,

Vovsha et al., 2004a, 2004b)
[Vehicle interaction models]
(Category A)
[Semi-autonomous vehicle
characteristics] (Category A)
[Microscopic control models]
(Category B)

[Macroscopic control over

automated vehicles] (B)

[Platoon characteristics of
automated vehicles] (A)

Fourth generation

Third generation

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PERSPECTIVES ON FUTURE TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH

identified and theoretical and empirical studies are initiated

for the new generation of models. As the technologies become
ready, practical demand on the new-generation model starts to
increase rapidly, until the modeling research catches up and becomes mature for field evaluation and deployment. Then the
practical requirement turns to the technological side; hence its
needs on the research and modeling side will slow down. Meanwhile, at the same period, the demand for a newer generation of
models will emerge again. The practical requirement on an old
generation of models will continue to exist but will eventually
fall below the demand on the new generation of models. Likewise, practical demand also changes from generation to generation. In the first generation, the main practical demand is to
obtain basic knowledge and techniques to understand, manage,
and control the transportation system. Practical motivations are
behind the second-generation model. With new ITS technologies recently, we are on the verge of the rapid development of
the third generation of transportation models and the preparation
period for the fourth-generation models.
Table 4 investigates the detailed aspects of the motivations
behind each generation of models. Four important aspects, data,
communication, methodology, and technology, are discussed.
Communication is discussed separately from technology because of its importance with regard to traveler information and
traffic control.
Figure 3 illustrates the advances of data collection techniques
from generation to generation in terms of the detection grid with
respect to space and time with the evolution of ITS technologies. In the first generation, due to the technology limitations,
only very limited data could be collected at very scattered time
and space points either through labor-intensive data collection
methods or under controlled experimental environments. As
detection technologies advanced into the second generation,
continuous detection grids were established over some road
sections or time intervals, with the addition of partial trajectory
data provided by probe vehicle technologies. In the third generation, when the connected vehicle technologies become more
sophisticated, the density of the continuous detection grids will
increase and more complete individual trajectory data can be
collected. In the fourth generation, when full penetration can be
achieved over the entire transportation system, a more complete
and dense detection grid can be achieved.
Communication technologies also change significantly from
generation to generation. In the first generation, only very loose
communication existed from infrastructure to vehicles through
control devices. In the second generation, with the emergence
of regional traffic management centers (TMCs), infrastructure
served an intermediate communication layer. Dynamic conditions in transportation systems were collected and processed
through the infrastructure to the TMCs. The TMCs analyzed the
data and implemented control strategies or guidance through the
infrastructure back to the users. A representative system of such
has been evaluated in the ADVANCE project (Boyce, 2002).
In the third generation, transportation systems take advantage
of the connected vehicle technologies (RITA, 2011) to add the

233

additional bidirectional communication among neighboring vehicles, between vehicles and infrastructures, and possibly with
the TMCs. As the entire system becomes more complex and automated, in the future it may be expected that communication in
transportation systems will have flatter or more distributed structures by technologies such as distributed (Attiya et al., 2004) and
cloud computing (Armbrust et al., 2009). Then each vehicle,
infrastructure, or a TMC becomes one node in a large transportation cloud. Such trends can potentially reshape the fundamental characteristics of transportation systems. Users will
change from being completely unorganized individuals to being
more coordinated, more actively involved in the perception, optimization, and feedback of the entire system. Moreover, users
may also be individually served based on their specific needs
(Figure 4).
Another interesting phenomenon to be expected is that the
information provided to users evolves from little in the first
generation, then increases over the second and third generations,
but may decrease towards the end of the third generation; in the
fourth generation, users will receive much more precise and
concise information processed, filtered, and optimized by the
infrastructure or TMCs, as illustrated in Figure 5.
For the first-generation models, the major motivation of transportation research was how to understand the basic characteristics of transportation systems using limited field data or data
collected in experimental environment. Empirical models and
models from other fields (e.g., physics and economics) were
widely introduced into the transportation field by assuming the
similarities between transportation systems and other physical
or economic systems were studied. In the second generation, the
major motivation is the crisis of transportation supply not being
able to handle the ever-growing demand. With improved field
data quality, two major directions can be observed in the transportation research. One was to address the discrepancy between
field observations and the phenomenon predicted by empirical
and borrowed models in the first generation. The other was to
explore dynamic models so that the state of a transportation
network can be estimated, predicted, or controlled with respect
to the demand changes. In the third and fourth generation, the
issue of supply falls behind demand is still the main. For thirdgeneration models, based on a much richer data environment,
major motivations may be the capability of processing highresolution real-time data for real-time route guidance and traffic
control strategies. Meanwhile, it is also necessary to explore the
impact of the increased perception of travelers and the strengthened interaction among entities (vehicle, driver, infrastructure,
and other modes) in transportation systems. In the fourth generation, the motivations become the ability to process large-scale
and massive data in real-time and to provide user-specific control and guidance for fully automated traveling. Moreover, as
each component of a transportation system (travelers, passenger vehicles, public transportation systems, freight transportation, and parking) has been studied intensively in the previous
generations, integrated models that consider all transportation
modes, involve all parties (users, planning agencies, operators,

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Test vehicle techniques

Manual license plate surveys
Uniform traffic control devices
Inductive loop detectors
GPS technologies
Wireless location technologies
Video detection technologies (e.g.,
Autoscope)
Probe vehicle technologies
Traffic control center technologies
GIS technologies
ITS standards

Theories and models borrowed from

other fields (e.g. physics, economics)
Basic transportation observations

Methodology

Technology

Stochastic and dynamic characteristics

of transportation
Dynamic control strategies

Loose connectivity

Communication

Massive data processing

Rich and effective user interface
Cloud computing
Distributed computing
Supercomputer
New forms of public transportation

Massive connection processing

Information priority and compression
Information security
Network and large-scale solutions to
existing theory and models
Real-time large-scale optimization
User-specific models

High-resolution full vehicle trajectory data

High-resolution sensor network
Real-time traveler service request
Real-time transportation service data

High-resolution partial vehicle

trajectory data
Arterial traffic network data and signal
timing data
Dynamic travel demand data
Real-time local traffic condition
(through connected vehicles)
Dynamic multimodal dataVehicular
network data

Archived historical data

Segment-based detectors
Enhanced (e.g., high-resolution) point
detector data
Probe vehicle data
Dynamic behavior data (e.g.,
GPS/cell-phone travel survey)
CCTV surveillance video
Traffic operations and management data
(e.g., weather, work zone, incidents)
Comprehensive crash data
Unidirectional/indirect connectivity

Aggregated traffic flow characteristics

Point detector data
Experimental and test-track data
Survey-based static travel behavior data
Static and long-term demand data

Data

Connectivity reliability
Information reduction
Connectivity security
Real-time models
Combined human, assisted, and
automated traveling
Integration of theory and models
developed for subproblem (e.g.
combining the simulation of
operations and planning)
Connected vehicle technologies
Smart vehicle technologies
Social media applications

Fourth generation

Third generation

Second generation

First generation

Table 4 Motivations behind each generation of transportation models.

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235

Figure 3 Advances in transportation data collection methods.

and policies), and serve multiple objectives (efficiency, safety,

and sustainability impact) can be expected. When obtaining not
only operational but also demand data becomes more efficient,
these new integrated models will play important roles in future
transportation system.

One critical step of transportation research is the model

validation and verification. Transportation models are not applicable without proper calibration and validation using field
data. Many transportation models in the first and second generation are presented initially with very limited field data support.

Figure 4 Changes in communication in transportation systems.

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Figure 5 Information provided to users in different generations.

However, those successful models were later on intensively validated by other researchers and engineers using field data. With
the development in ITS technologies, benchmark field data sets
have been established in many transportation research fields for
the second- and third-generation models. Examples include the
NGSIM data set (FHWA, 2012) for research on traffic flow theory and the transportation testing problem data sets (Bar-Gera
2011) for network modeling. Yet for testing many transportation
models, direct and comprehensive data sets are not always available, including examples such as data sets for traffic flow and
network dynamics in arterial network, data sets for traffic diversion on freeway, and drivers reaction toward route guidance
and dynamic traffic messages. In the future, with the development of new ITS technologies, innovative ways of collecting
and using traffic data may be proposed and optimized. The time
duration from the proposal of a model to its field validation
can be significantly shortened. Meanwhile, comprehensive scenarios can be selected to verify new models thoroughly. Some
difficulties may rise in processing and filtering the data to fit the
proposed model, developing efficient optimization algorithms
for model calibration, and finding effective ways of interpreting
the results. For example, with a large amount of high-resolution
data, it can be difficult to validate some macroscopic models, as
researchers need to reconstruct the required inputs and ground
truth data. It may also be possible that some old models become
inaccurate, ineffective, or even useless with the new data sets.

APPLICATIONS OF TRANSPORTATION MODELS

In this section, detailed observations regarding the applications of models in each generation are offered. This discussion is
one of the first attempts to depict such a detailed picture of major topics and applications associated with major transportation
models. Admittedly, the detailed classifications and descriptions
may not be highly accurate and are subject to changes over time.
The primary goal is to present the trend of modeling ideas and
ways of thinking from generation to generation in more concrete and specific scenarios other than generation descriptions
in the previous sections. The first scenario is based on different
subareas of transportation research (Table 5).
Research on operational models focuses on two major directions, traffic characteristics and traffic control. The first one

is to develop more sophisticated models that can capture the

actual characteristics of real-world transportation system, from
the ideal models such as car following models, intersection delay models, and kinematic wave models to more complicated
higher order models, such as kinetic models that can describe
nonequilibrium traffic states observed in field data. In the third
and fourth generations, the modeling efforts will need to be focused on vehicle-oriented and control-oriented studies as more
detailed vehicular data and smart infrastructure data become
available. An equally important track for this direction is the
study on the performance evaluation models for traffic flow.
Such a track includes the study of single-variable characteristics
such as sample-data-based speed, headway distribution (May,
1990), and fundamental diagram characteristics (e.g. early editions of Highway Capacity Manual) in the first generation, as
well as more data-centric measures such as travel time reliability
(Higatani et al., 2009; Uno et al., 2009) and traffic contour maps
(e.g. HCM 2000) in the second generation that require more
advanced modeling and process efforts. It can be expected that
in the future, when new technologies and data sources become
available, more detailed and informative measures of transportation systems may emerge and become applicable in practice.
The other major research direction is traffic control and management. It evolved from the static pretimed signal control in
the first generation to corridor or network-wide adaptive control
in the second generation, then to active traffic management and
control in the third generation. With more dynamic and more detailed data available, as well as innovations in new methodology
and technology, the corresponding control models have become
more and more adaptive, real-time, optimal, and concrete. In the
future, with the development in connected vehicle or Internet of
Vehicles technologies, the control technologies targeting individual vehicles or travelers may become feasible. Then efficient
microscopic optimal control models will be needed.
Four major trends may be expected for planning models.
First, the specificity of the model output has increased from
generation to generation, from the static 24-hour single-class
output of the first generation to the dynamic in the second generation and real-time in the fourth generation, resulting in more
operational models. Second, the models have become more
and more disaggregated as more travel details are reflected in
transportation data. Third, the network representation used by
planning models contains more details with respect to vehicle
classes, lane configuration, and demand and supply changes.
Fourth, sustainability can also be enhanced in future transportation planning. Sustainable solutions have drawn increasing interests in recent years (Black et al., 2002; Jeon & Amekudzi, 2005;
Richardson, 1999, 2005). With increased connectivity among all
transportation modes, more customized, efficient, flexible, and
compelling (with regard to auto mode) solutions may emerge in
the future.
Design models may become intensively integrated into the
entire life cycle of transportation systems. In safety research,
the trend has been toward more comprehensive data analysis,
and more proactive measures and countermeasures. Ultimately,

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Computer-aided design
Maintenance management
Context-sensitive design
Enhanced crash data
Empirical Bayesian analysis
Static emission modeling (conformity
analysis)
Sampling of atmospheric chemicals
Environmental-oriented design
(porous pavement, noise barriers)
Emission controls on cars
Fuel economy standards
GIS-based air quality monitoring
(Rebolj & Sturm, 1999)

Experience-based protocols
Blackspot analysis
Environmental impact analysis
required/mandated
Air quality impacts
Design for rainfall runoff

Safety

Environmental

Static 24-hour, single-class

Empirical
Aggregated
Deterministic
Four-step models
Land use models
Inputoutput models
Household survey data
Network representation: link travel time
based on link flow only

Planning

Standard-based design/construction

Intersection delay models

Pretime and adaptive signal timing
Coordinated signals

Operations (traffic control and

management)

Design/construction

Second generation
Macroscopic traffic state estimation
and prediction
Highway LOS evaluation
Travel time reliability
Route guidance
Traveler information dissemination
Adaptive arterial network control
Freeway control methods
Congestion mitigation
Incident management
Traffic flow and demand simulation
Static by period, multiple-class
Stochastic destination and mode
choice
Combined equilibrium and dynamics
models
Disaggregated
Feedback
Stated preference surveys
Network representation: travel time by
type of lane, mixed flow, car only,
HOV
Network reliability

First generation
Macroscopic traffic flow characteristics
Microscopic traffic flow characteristics
Human factor

Applications in different areas of transportation research by generation.

Operations (traffic characteristics)

Table 5

Fourth generation

Route choice by travelers

Activity-based
Individual traveler
Full user equilibrium
Complete tracking of travelers
System optimal pricing
Network representation:
integrate signal operation and
link flow.

Dynamic
Activity-based
Individual household
Tracking travel choices, such as by
GPS, cell phone
Congestion pricing
Sustainability
Integrated microsimulation and
planning models (e.g., VISSIM +
VISUM, TransModeler +
TransCAD)
Network representation: travel time
based on links own flow and
conflicting flows (intersection
conflicts)
Sensor-based infrastructure
monitoring
Proactive maintenance
Coordination with control
Driver simulators
Automated safety data collection
and analysis models
Proactive safety inspection
Dynamic emission modeling by
vehicle type (Panis et al., 2006;
Kristensson et al., 2004)
Real-time data collection
Environmental-oriented
infrastructure control (intelligent
roadway lighting)
Emission control on trucks and
buses
Hybrid vehicles

vol. 16 no. 4 2012

Multiple-objective system
control and optimization
Adaptive emission controls
(e.g., dynamic)
Fuel-cell-powered vehicles

Safety-oriented vehicle control

Safety-oriented infrastructure
control

Automated maintenance
Integration with operations and
planning

Optimal system control

Microscopic traffic
management

Automatic vehicle control and

coordination
Real-time data processing and
integration

Active traffic management models

Integrated corridor management
Traffic simulation with vehicular
communication

Microscopic traffic state estimation

and prediction
Hybrid (human and automated)
traffic state estimation
Vehicular connectivity

Third generation

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Metascopic (regional,
national, global)

Basic macroscopic principles and

characteristics
Static/pretimed control
Zone-based representation
Aggregated trip origins and
destinations
Transit network representation: fixed
zone-to-zone travel times and fares
Metascopic indexes
Basic data collection methods
Basic connection with other modes
(air, rail, and sea)

Methodology, standards to convert dynamic

data to metascopic indexes
Evaluation based on rich data
Integrated management among passenger and
commodity flow

Dynamic principles, characteristics, and

interactions under ideal condition
Stochastic characteristics
Dynamic control and coordination

Dynamic principles and characteristics

regarding formation, evolution, and
distinction (FED) of traffic element groups
(e.g. platoon diversion, cell transmission)
Relationship with microscopic, macroscopic,
and other resolutions
Parcel-based trip origins
Household-based trip origins
Network representation: more dense, includes
high to mid-level functional class
Transit network representation: service
frequency, travel time, fare-based transit
planning (Dial & Bunyan, 1968)
Strategy models to capture user choices within
transit networks

Basic principles and characteristics of

homogeneous, correlated group of
traffic elements
High-level functional class for
network representations

Mesoscopic (disaggregated)

Macroscopic(aggregated)

Second generation
Dynamic characteristics
Interaction between different traffic elements
Broadcast-based (radio, DMS, etc.) guidance

First generation

Basic principles and characteristics of

traffic elements (vehicle, driver, and
road)

Microscopic (individual)

Table 6 Applications by generations for different research scopes.

Real-time characteristics
Characteristics under partial
control
Activity-based models
DYNAST model (Arizona)
Transit microsimulation
model (e.g., VISSIM)
Real-time characteristics,
interactions, and relationship
Characteristics and
interactions under control
Dynamic intra- and
interrelationship between
groups
Partial and self-organized
local coordination and
control
Digital map, GIS
(NAVTEQ)-based network
representation
Real-time arrival time
forecast-based transit
management and planning
Transit performance
simulation based on transit
capacity, boarding and
alighting process
Transit LOS evaluation:
queuing time with respect to
demand, vehicle capacity
Real-time principles,
characteristics, and
interactions under actual
condition
Characteristics and interaction
under control
Real-time control and
coordination
Metascopic pattern
recognition
Continuous evaluation of
metascopic indexes
Real-time optimization of
different modes and flows
Multiple-objective traveling
efficiency, safety, and
sustainability

Third generation

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Fourth generation

Metascopic event identification and

management
Multiple-objective globally optimized
integration with other modes

Characteristics under full control

Fully automated and optimized
control

Real-time characteristics and

interactions.
Characteristics and interactions of
fully controlled traffic element
groups.
Distributed and coordinated local
control

Characteristics under full control

Real-time interaction
Full microscopic control
Transit management and planning
based on real-time user-based
forecast

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PERSPECTIVES ON FUTURE TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH

however, in the fourth generation, safety models may become

more of a technological issue than data analysis, since more advanced vehicle and infrastructure control and automated driving
can potentially reshape the entire concept of traffic safety. Environmental models can also benefit from the increased availability of data and improvement in clean energy technologies.
Dividing transportation models by their scope is one of the
most important classification scenarios in the field (Table 6). In
this discussion, transportation models, primarily operations and
planning models, have been divided into microscopic, mesoscopic, macroscopic, and metascopic models for each generation. In general, one can expect more concrete, dynamic estimation and control models to increase from the first generation
to the fourth generation. In the first and second generation,
microscopic models were primarily descriptive models. However, in the third and fourth generations, microscopic control
and management models may also be developed. In metascopic models, an important trend is that the decision making
has changed from a single objective to multiple objectives as
more data sources are available over the generations.

SUMMARY
With more than eight decades of development, our field has
experienced two major waves of transportation models in the
1950s to the 1990s. Major technology reforms in the automobile industry and information science have respectively inspired
and motivated the previous two generations of transportation
models, along with the ever-increasing practical needs for more
efficient and productive transportation system. We are now at the
verge of the next major waves of transportation research with
the introduction of new ITS technologies including wireless
communication technologies, connected vehicle technologies,
smart vehicle technologies, and distributed and cloud computing technologies. These new ITS technologies can fundamentally change the characteristics of existing transportation system with increased connectivity, automation, and optimization
toward a much more user-oriented, system-optimal, safe, and
sustainable system. All of these technologies open up brand
new territory to be further explored, discovered, and mastered.
The discussion presented in this paper serves as the first step
in inspiring and motivating transportation researchers toward
a future generation of transportation models that may benefit
millions of users of transportation systems.

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