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Miguel de Villa
CAT 3Fowler
B20 TA: Stephen Mandiberg
10 June 2014
Impact of Degree of Social Connectivity on the Usage of Surrogate Strategy in Decision-Making
Introduction:
One of the defining aspects of a social network is that it can influence its component individuals
as much as its component individuals can shape it. Surrogate strategy, the process by which information
is gathered externally from the experiences or knowledge from other individuals for incorporation into
ones decision, is one example. It is the driving force behind effective reviews, marketing campaigns, and
consultation services ranging from all degrees of social connectivity from close family to complete
strangers over the internet. Understanding how this principle comes into effect at the individual level is
the key to optimizing marketing strategies for maximum influence and efficiency. For that reason, our
study seeks to understand how the probability of one using surrogate strategy in an immediate decision is
impacted or dependent upon the existence of a prior social connection.
Related Research:
Due to the multiple applications of surrogate strategy in marketing, multiple studies have been
conducted in order to understand the degree to which ones social network or interactions with other
members of a given community can impact decision making. One such study was conducted by Gilbert
and several other researchers on the ability of surrogate information to create accurate affective
predictions. Throughout their experiment, individuals were given one of two sets of data to make an
initial affective prediction of their feelings and perception of a situation. Then, they were given the other
set and introduced to the actual situation and made to reevaluate their predictions. Individuals given
surrogate informationinformation filtered through another individualwere able to make predictions
with less error from their actual responses than individuals who made their prediction using only their

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own judgment and objectively gathered simulation information (Gilbert 1617-1619). This illustrates the
power of surrogate strategy in influencing decision-making toward creating more favorable results than in
the absence of surrogate information.
A similar study conducted by DiMaggio and Louch sought to understand the extent to which
individuals used their social networks to conduct commercial transactions. They conducted an experiment
in which they interviewed recent buyers and sellers of houses and cars while looking at their social
embedednessdegree to which an individual has a social relation with their transaction partner. Their
data showed that in risk-laden purchases such as of a house or a car, consumers preferred having a high
degree of embededness with their commercial partner than without for the reason that they believed those
with whom they shared a social connection were less likely to withhold from them valuable and
advantageous information about the product or service (Dimaggio 619). The outcome of this experiment
reveals that when using surrogate strategy, is preferable for an individual to possess a preexisting social
connection with their surrogate.
Hypothesis:
With this understanding of the efficacy and desirability of surrogate strategy amongst individuals
with preexisting social connections, we hypothesize that an individual is more likely to use surrogate
strategy if their surrogate is a first-degree connection within their social network as opposed to a weaker
connection of two degrees of separation or greater. Moreover, we hypothesize this likelihood to be true
even in situations wherein surrogate information is obtained at a cost or reduced benefit due to the offset
in increased likelihood of getting a desirable outcome.
Methods:
Testing our hypothesis required that our subjects have the option between two choices, receiving
surrogate information at the cost of reduced reward upon successful completion of the experiment and
continuing the experiment without surrogate information and receiving a full reward upon successful

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completion of the experiment. Thus, our group designed two similar versions of a riddle-based
questionnaire upon whose completion with a score of 50% or higher would deem the subject eligible for
said reward. One of the questionnaires would contain a set of hints for every question in order to simulate
the presence of surrogate information, whereas the other version would contain the questions alone,
leaving the subject to rely solely on their own knowledge and abilities to complete the questionnaire.
Additionally, during the experiment, subjects who opted to choose the version with hints would be
informed that said hints were personally formulated by their proctora member of our group with whom
the subject either shared a first-degree connection or a second-degree or further connection. This is done
in order to increase the likelihood that our subjects perceive the hints to be actual surrogate information
derived from their proctor as implicit in our hypothesis is that the known origin of the surrogate
information will determine the likelihood of one using surrogate strategy..
Another critical variable of our experiment was the differentiation between a first-degree
connection and a non-first-degree connection of two degrees or further between the subject and their
proctor. Therefore, we chose to deliver the same experiment to two groups of 10 subjects each with the
first group being comprised a proctors suitemates to constitute the first-degree connection. The second
group, on the other hand, was comprised of another group members suitemates, but whose proctor was
previously unknown to them, thus creating the necessary second-degree social connections. Our
experiment would then be delivered to each group whose individuals would be given the choice whether
or not to use hints in the manner outlined previously in this section. Which version of the questionnaire
each individual in either group chose contributed toward the primary statistic of our analysis.
Furthermore, secondary statistics such as race, major, and mood at the instant of experimentation were
also recorded prior to testing for the purposes of correlating the probability of hint-usage with those
variables in later analysis. Note also that the accuracy or score that each subject received as a result of
taking either version of the questionnaire is not a primary statistic as that variable is far more dependent
on an individuals ability to reason and solve rather than the presence of surrogate information.

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Results:

Non-First
Degree
Connection
Participant 1

Participant 2

Participant 3

Participant 4

Participant 5

Ethnicity

Asian

White

White

Hispanic

Hispanic

Major

Human Biology Undeclared

Chemical
Engineering

Mechanical
Engineering

Undeclared

Hint Usage

No Hints

Hints

No Hints

No Hints

Hints

Test-taking

Good

Average

Good

Good

Average

Languages

English(First),
Chinese

English(First)

English(First), English(First),
Spanish
Spanish

English(First),
Spanish

CAT 3 (Which class)

Patterson

Patterson

Oates

Patterson

Fowler

Mood at the time

Good

Had few shots

Good

Good

Average

Participant 6

Participant 7

Participant 8

Participant 9

Participant 10

Ethnicity

White

White

Asian

Asian

Asian

Major

Neuroscience/
Bioengineering Physiology

Structural
Engineering

Electrical
Engineering

Electrical
Engineering

Hint Usage

No Hints

No Hints

Hints

No Hints

Hints

Test-taking

Average 2/4

Average 2/4

Average 2/4

Good 4/4

Average 2/4

Languages

English

English (first),
Spanish

English

Chinese (first), Chinese (first),

English
English, German

CAT 3 (Which class)

Fowler

Oates

N/A

Oates

N/A

Mood at the time

Fine

Nervous

Average/
Neutral

Fine

Hungry

First-Degree
Connection

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Participant 1

Participant 2

Participant 3

Participant 4

Participant 5

Ethnicity

White

Asian

Asian

Asian

White

Major

Undeclared

Bioengineering

Structural
Engineering

Mechanical
Engineering

Computer
Engineering

Hint Usage

Hints

Hints

No Hints

Hints

No Hints

Test-taking

Average

Good

Good

Average

Good

First Language

English

Chinese(First),
English

English(First), English(First),
Korean
Korean

English

CAT 3 (Which class)

Oates

Oates

Patterson

Patterson

Fowler

Mood at the time

Good

Average

Drunk

Average

Good

Participant 6

Participant 7

Participant 8

Participant 9

Participant 10

Ethnicity

Asian

Asian

White

White

White

Major

Structural
Human Biology Engineering

Computer
Science

Undecided

Neuroscience

Hint Usage

No Hints

Hints

No Hints

No Hints

No Hints

Test-taking

Good

Good

Good

Average

Average

First Language

Chinese

Korean

English

English

Armenian

CAT 3 (Which class)

Fowler

Fowler

Not in it

Oates

Oates

Mood at the time

Neutral

Calm

Tired

Such mad

Tired

Percentage of individuals who used hints

First-Degree group

60%

Non First-Degree group

60%

Discussion of Results and Error:

What we found at the end of the experiment was that roughly the same percentage of individuals
who received surrogate information from their friends used hints as often as their individuals who did not

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receive surrogate information as their friends. 60% percent of our total sample size opted to forego the use
of hints when they took the questionnaire making it such that a majority of our test subjects did not seek
to use surrogate strategy even when their proctor was a first-degree connection. However, when
considering the accuracy of this data on representing the hypothesis that we attempted to test, a discussion
of possible sources of error in experimental design and assumptions made are necessary. Due to the
limited nature of our sample size in an attempt to control for certain variables, several sources of
statistical or random error were introduced.
In selecting our sample size, we chose two suites of male Sixth College freshmen students, 90%
of whom were premed or engineering majors. This was in order to control for variables such as age and
gender, and optimistically even risk-taking habits and intelligence levels that would have an individual
predisposed toward a particular strategy regarding hint usage regardless of their social connection with
their proctor or acting surrogate. For example, individuals with a predisposition toward solely maximizing
reward at any cost of risk would have immediately forgone potentially useful surrogate information
anyway. Similarly, individuals who lack confidence in their riddle-solving capacities would have chosen
to work with hints regardless of their connection to their surrogate as that would have vastly improved
their probability of getting any reward over that of a near certainty of failure had they worked without
hints. Any deviation from assumed personality profiles prescribed above would have resulted in 5% of
our data being unreliable, hence the high probability of our having faulty data.
Aside from sources of random error, there existed also forms of systematic error that would have
skewed our data in a manner not attributable to the individual personality of the test subject. For example,
the manner of delivery, conduct and appearance of a test subjects proctor may have persuaded or
dissuaded them from choosing to use hints, and not their degree of social connection to their proctor.
Also, our attempts to compensate for a limited sample size by choosing what we deemed to be a fairly
homogeneous population of subjects may have been counter-productive as 90% of them were premed or
engineering majors and concurrently enrolled in CAT 3. This fact may have predisposed them to forego

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hints for the reason that they believed themselves to be more than intelligent enough to successfully
complete the questionnaire and maximize reward or because they trusted any fellow colleague in CAT 3
not to purposely disadvantage them for the sake of a study.
Conclusion:
As the results of our experiment conflict with our initial hypothesis, there exists two possible
conclusions that can be drawn from our data. The first conclusion that can be drawn is that, as our data
suggests, even if an individual does not possess a first-degree social connection with a potential surrogate
or partner, they are just as likely to engage in surrogate strategy with that individual as if their surrogate
were a first degree connection. Motivations for this course of action are indeterminate from our
experiment as our data did not seek to include it; however, one postulate is that as we used a seconddegree connection as our non-first-degree connection, the motivations of trust are similar to if the
surrogate were a first degree connection. As the difference between the two is only one degree, it is
plausible that the disparity in the likelihood of using surrogate strategy at that level is not nonexistent, but
actually negligible enough not to be evident in our small sample size.
Conversely, the other conclusion that can be drawn is that our data is faulty due to the previously
mentioned failure to control for certain variables outlined in the Discussion section of this paper.
Researchers such as DiMaggio and Louch found a positive correlation between the usage of surrogates
and social embededness associated with high-risk purchases, which leads us to believe that our hypothesis
is correct (Dimaggio 634). Individuals are more likely to use surrogates with whom they share a first
degree connection as opposed to a further one for the reason that they trust their surrogates not to
withhold from them valuable information that will increase their probability of success or satisfaction in
their decision. Our data would have likely reflected this phenomenon had we endeavored for a larger
sample size during our experiment. Further testing of our hypothesis is required on a larger scale with a
more diverse sample population is needed in order to draw a reasonable conclusion.

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Bibliography:
Gilbert, D. T., M. A. Killingsworth, R. N. Eyre, and T. D. Wilson. "The Surprising Power of Neighborly
Advice." Science 323.5921 (2009): 1617-1619. Print.
Dimaggio, Paul, and Hugh Louch. "Socially Embedded Consumer Transactions: For What Kinds of
Purchases Do People Most Often use Networks?." American Sociological Review 63.5 (1998):
619-635. Print.