Monthly Update

TREASURY
RESEARCH

Dec 11, 2014

Namrata Narkar
+91 22 66263517
namrata.narkar@idbi.co.in

Domestic Market Rates

MIBOR (%)
Average Call Volumes (Rs Cr)
Weighted Average Call Rate
LAF Repo o/s (Rs Cr)
LAF Reverse Repo o/s (Rs Cr)
10 year G-Sec yield (%)
364 Day T-Bill Cutoff (%)
1-10 year spread(%)
5 year AAA yield(%)
5 year AAA spread (%)
5 year OIS rate (%)
5 Year MIFOR Swap rate (%)
USD/INR
6 Month Forward Premia (%)

Nov

Oct

8.02
10627
7.37
12781
8414
8.09
8.29
-0.14
8.60
0.27
7.15
6.82
62.04
7.43

7.39
12717
7.09
9275
6637
8.28
8.41
-0.11
8.80
0.34
7.44
7.16
61.36
7.95

Change
0.63
(2090)
0.28
3506
1777
(0.19)
(0.12)
(0.03)
(0.20)
(0.07)
(0.29)
(0.34)
0.67
(0.52)

(Note: figures as of last trading day of the month other than call volumes; change over previous
month in absolute terms)
Source: IDBI Bank Limited

Global Rates
Nov
US Treasury 10Y yield (%) *
6 Month USD LIBOR (%) *
WTI
Brent
Dubai Fateh
Gold
LMEX
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY

2.16
0.33
66.15
68.99
67.92
1167.38
3023.20
1.2452
1.5645
118.63

Oct %Change
2.34
0.33
80.54
84.80
83.24
1172.94
3122.70
1.2525
1.5995
112.32

(Note: figures as of last trading day of the month; * Absolute Change in bps)
Source: IDBI Bank Limited

-0.17
0.00
-17.9
-18.6
-18.4
-0.5
-3.2
-0.6
-2.2
5.6

OUTLOOK
Liquidity to Remain Largely Comfortable, Call Rates

Around 8%

The liquidity situation is expected to remain largely comfortable

going ahead, amidst continuation of deft liquidity management
by the RBI as well as the slackness observed in credit offtake
this fiscal. The money market rates thus are expected to trade
in a relatively narrow range, with the overnight weighted
average call rate seldom breaking the 8% mark.
G-Sec Market to Retain Positive Bias

The G-Sec market is expected to continue trading on a positive

note in the wake of continued softness observed in global
crude oil prices. The G-Sec market could get a boost around
the CPI inflation release for November, which could see a
reading below 4.5% levels. If the actual release comes in line
with the expectations, the market could rally further in hopes
of an earlier rate cut announcement by the RBI. The only
dampener could be the persistent weakness observed in
domestic currency as well as the concerns over the domestic
fiscal situation.
Softer Inflation Reading Could Mute Weakness in

Rupee

The rupee is expected to maintain a largely weak bias tracking

continued demand for dollars. The dollar too has strengthened globally
tracking better macro data. The rupee could get some boost from
the upcoming CPI inflation reading, which is expected to come in
below the 4.5% mark. Another factor, that could keep the weakening
bias on rupee muted, is the softening observed in global crude oil
prices, as the oil imports account for more than 30% of total imports.
.
OIS Rates to Have Downward Bias

The OIS rates are expected to maintain their downward bias

tracking the buoyancy in G-Sec market as well as the
comfortable money market situation. This would be aided by
the possibility of upcoming CPI inflation reading coming below
4.5% levels, which in turn could fuel hopes of an earlier rate
easing by the RBI.

Treasury Research Monthly Update

Money Market
Figure 1 | Total Call Volumes & Weighted Average
Overnight Call Rate
40000

15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5

35000
30000
Rs Cr

25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14
Total Call Volumes (Rs Cr) -LHS

Weighted Avg Overnight Call Rate (%) - RHS

Source: The Reserve Bank of India, IDBI Bank Ltd

Figure 2 | NSE Overnight Mibor & LAF Repo

Rate
12.00
11.00

10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00

Liquidity Largely Comfortable, Call Rates Remain Soft

The liquidity situation was largely comfortable throughout the month
of November. The net LAF Deployments turned positive at the
beginning of the month but, then were seen mostly in the negative
territory averaging around Rs 12,000 cr. The call rates mostly hovered
below the 8% mark during the month of November. The RBI
conducted variable rate reverse repo auctions worth Rs 1,80,000 cr
during November, out of which successful allotment amounted to Rs
1,18,956 cr. The RBI also conducted term repos worth Rs 1,27,000 cr,
out of which successful bidding was to the tune of Rs 96,404 cr.

CPs & CDs: Primary Market Transactions

The primary market issuances under CDs during November 2014 were
noted at Rs 19,345 cr, against October issuances worth Rs 9,395 cr.
Majority of the primary market issuances took place for 2 month, 3
month and 12 month tenors. The 2 month issuances took place in yields
ranging from 8.30% to 8.43%. The 3 month issuances took place in
yields ranging from 8.30% to 8.44%. The 12 month issuances took
place in yields ranging from 8.63% to 8.85%.
The primary market issuances under CPs during November 2014 were
noted at Rs 2,300 cr, which were lower than those seen in October
around Rs 4,125 cr. The issuance took place in 2 month, 3 month and
12 month tenors. The primary market issuances for 2 month tenors
took place in the range of 8.38% to 8.49%. The primary market issuance
for 3 month tenor took place at 8.55%. The primary market issuance
for 12 month tenor took place at 8.75%-8.87%.

6.00
Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13 Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14
NSE Ov ernig ht Mb
i

LAF Re po Rat

Source: NSE, RBI, IDBI Bank Ltd

Figure 3 | Net Outstanding LAF Deployments

80,000
30,000

Rs Cr

(20,000)
(70,000)
(120,000)
(170,000)
(220,000)
Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14
Source: RBI, IDBI Bank Ltd

Outlook
The liquidity situation is expected to remain largely comfortable going
ahead, amidst continuation of deft liquidity management by the RBI as
well as the slackness observed in credit offtake this fiscal. The money
market rates thus are expected to trade in a relatively narrow range,
with the overnight weighted average call rate seldom breaking the 8%
mark.

Treasury Research Monthly Update

Government Securities Market

Figure 4 | Sovereign Yield Curve

Yields Soften on Continued Decline in Oil Prices, CPI

Inflation at 5.5% and Expectation of Rate Easing by
the RBI

0
8.5

-16
8.3

-24

-32

-40

8.0
1

10

12

15

Change (bps) - LHS

20

25

30

Yields Current Month (%) - RHS

Yields Previous Month (%) - RHS

Source: IDBI Bank Limited

Figure 5 |10-Year Yield Movement

9.5
9.3
9.0
8.8
8.5
%

8.3
8.0
7.8
7.5
7.3

Yield to Maturity (%)

Change in Yields (bps)

-8

The G-Sec market opened the month of November on a

buoyant note seeing cut in prices of petrol and diesel. Another
major reason for buoyancy in G-Sec market throughout the
month of November was the softness observed in crude oil
prices. The global prices of oil fell from above $80 a barrel to
below $70 a barrel level during the month of November. The
market overall traded on a positive note albeit with hints of
weakness tracking the depreciating bias in domestic currency.
The market buoyed considerably post a soft reading on CPI
inflation. The CPI inflation for October was noted considerably
soft at 5.52% levels. However, the market gains were muted
amidst reported comments from RBI Adviser, whereby he
mentioned that a rate cut in December policy meeting would
be premature. However, reduction in the trade deficit levels,
combined with some strengthening of currency, improved the
market sentiment. Towards close, the market turned bearish
upon the announcement of an OMO Sale to be held by RBI
early December. Nonetheless, a decision by the OPEC to
retain current production levels buoyed the G-Sec market
again, amidst hopes of continued softness in oil prices. The
10-year yield closed the month of November at 8.09% levels,
amidst hopes of a dovish policy stance being adopted by the
RBI at its Fifth Bi-Monthly review, to be held early December.

7.0
Apr-13 Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14

Yield Flattens

Source: IDBI Bank Limited

Table 1 | Gilt spreads

Spreads

(in bps)

Gilt Spreads
28-Nov-14 31-Oct-14

1Y - 10Y

-10

10Y - 15Y
10Y - 30Y
20Y - 30Y

1Y - 30Y

-3

Change over
1Month 3Month 6 Month

-11

-2

-13

11

-10

11

-11

-3

-15

18

-2

-2

-3

-13

-16

The decline in yields was seen to be slightly sharper at farther

tenors as compared to the short end. The 1Y-10Y spread ended
at 3bps lower at negative 14bps. The 1Y-20Y spread closed
18bps lower at negative 6bps. The 15Y-20Y spread closed
18bps lower at negative 3bps. The 10Y-20Y spread closed
lower by 15bps at 8bps. However, the 10Y-30Y spread closed
higher by 3bps at 11bps.

Source: IDBI Bank Limited

Treasury Research Monthly Update

Government Securities Market

PDs and Public Sector Banks Remain Heavy Sellers,
Buying Undertaken by Private Sector Banks and Mutual
Funds

Figure 6 | Top Traded Securities (Rs Cr)

The trading activity in the G-Sec market including NDS Order Matching
system and NDS remained quite buoyant during November, over
the levels seen in October. The average daily volumes during November
were noted at Rs 46,166 cr, which were higher compared to Rs 45,684
cr seen in October.

300000
250000

Rs Cr

200000
150000
100000
50000
0
8.40% GOI
2024

8.60% GOI
2028

8.27% GOI
2020

8.83% GOI
2023

8.28% GOI
2027

Primary Dealers sold considerably during November, with their net

selling amounting to Rs 8,241 cr. The Primary Dealers alternated
between heavy buying and selling during the course of the month.
Public Sectors Banks too remained heavy sellers for the third
consecutive month in November, with their net selling amounting to
Rs 5,336 cr. The Public Sector Banks too alternated between heavy
buying and selling during the course of the month. The other net
sellers during November were the Foreign Banks and 'Others' with
their net selling amounting to Rs 1,121 cr and Rs 1,887 cr. The major
buyers during November were the Mutual Funds and Private Sector
Banks. Their net buying amounted to Rs 8,877 cr and Rs 7,698 cr
respectively. Mutual Funds bought heavily post the release of inflation
data for October that came in around 5.5% levels.

Source: CCIL, IDBI Bank Limited

Figure 7 | Daily Traded Volumes (Rs Cr)

80000
70000
60000

Rs Cr

50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
3-Nov 7-Nov 11-Nov 13-Nov 17-Nov 19-Nov 21-Nov 25-Nov 27-Nov
NDS

NDS-OM

Source: CCIL, IDBI Bank Limited

Table 2| Category wise G-Sec Trade Details (Net

Buy/Sell in Rs. Cr)
Category

Oct-14

Sep-14

Foreign Banks

-1121

9909

12124

Public Sector Banks

-5336

-11532

-11347

Private Sector Banks

7698

-1267

8813

Mutual Funds

8877

4902

2600

Others

-1887

1620

-23

Primary Dealers

-8241

-3634

-12163

Source: CCIL, IDBI Bank Limited

Nov-14

8.40% GOI 2024 and 8.60% GOI 2028 were the top traded securities
in November, comprising of volumes of Rs 3,01,240 cr and Rs
2,68,170 cr respectively. Both securities together formed around 81%
of the volumes for top 5 most trade securities. The next high volumes
were recorded by 8.27% GOI 2020 and 8.83% GOI 2023.

Outlook
The G-Sec market is expected to continue trading on a positive note
in the wake of continued softness observed in global crude oil prices.
The G-Sec market could get a boost around the CPI inflation release
for November, which could see a reading below 4.5% levels. If the
actual release comes in line with the expectations, the market could
rally further in hopes of an earlier rate cut announcement by the RBI.
The only dampener could be the persistent weakness observed in
domestic currency as well as the concerns over the domestic fiscal
situation.

Treasury Research Monthly Update

Government Securities Market

Table 3 | Benchmark Gilts
Security
364 Day T Bill
7.17% GOI 2015
7.59% GOI 2016
7.02% GOI 2016
8.07% GOI 2017 (JUL)
7.83% GOI 2018
7.28% GOI 2019
8.19% GOI 2020
7.80% GOI 2020
8.27% GOI 2020
8.12% GOI 2020
7.80% GOI 2021
8.79% GOI 2021
8.35% GOI 2022
8.15% GOI 2022
7.16% GOI 2023
8.83% GOI 2023
8.40% GOI 2024
9.15% GOI 2024
8.20% GOI 2025
8.33% GOI 2026
8.15% GOI 2026
8.24% GOI 2027
8.26% GOI 2027
8.28% GOI 2027
6.01% GOI 2028
8.60% GOI 2028
8.97% GOI 2030
9.20% GOI 2030
8.28% GOI 2032
8.32% GOI 2032
8.24% GOI 2033
7.50% GOI 2034
7.40% GOI 2035
8.33% GOI 2036
6.83% GOI 2039
8.30% GOI 2040
8.83% GOI 2041
8.30% GOI 2042
9.23% GOI 2043

Price (Rs)
28-Nov

Yield (%)
28-Nov

92.42
99.42
99.27
98.39
100.00
99.11
96.84
99.95
98.20
100.39
99.54
97.87
102.95
100.75
99.88
93.68
104.04
102.05
106.16
100.00
100.85
100.40
100.30
100.36
100.61
81.94
103.64
106.75
108.75
100.60
101.35
100.75
93.45
92.10
101.15
85.90
101.30
106.94
101.39
111.38

8.23
8.28
8.15
8.03
8.06
8.13
8.13
8.20
8.22
8.18
8.22
8.23
8.22
8.21
8.17
8.21
8.19
8.09
8.23
8.20
8.21
8.10
8.20
8.21
8.20
8.27
8.15
8.20
8.20
8.21
8.17
8.16
8.17
8.20
8.21
8.18
8.18
8.19
8.17
8.20

Change in Yield over (%)

1 Month
3 Months
6 Months
(0.16)
(0.17)
(0.14)
(0.18)
(0.15)
(0.09)
(0.13)
(0.17)
(0.14)
(0.14)
(0.14)
(0.14)
(0.19)
(0.19)
(0.25)
(0.20)
(0.22)
(0.19)
(0.18)
(0.20)
(0.18)
na
(0.21)
(0.19)
(0.20)
(0.09)
(0.22)
(0.18)
(0.16)
(0.16)
(0.20)
na
(0.34)
(0.16)
(0.17)
(0.19)
(0.18)
(0.17)
(0.18)
(0.16)

(0.45)
(0.41)
(0.20)
(0.33)
(0.47)
(0.46)
(0.48)
(0.51)
(0.54)
(0.45)
(0.49)
(0.53)
(0.50)
(0.55)
(0.59)
(0.55)
(0.53)
(0.47)
(0.55)
(0.64)
(0.61)
na
(0.63)
(0.60)
(0.62)
(0.58)
(0.57)
(0.54)
(0.57)
(0.56)
(0.58)
na
(0.56)
(0.57)
(0.55)
(0.59)
(0.58)
(0.61)
(0.59)
(0.58)

(0.42)
(0.20)
(0.32)
(0.32)
(0.37)
(0.41)
(0.49)
(0.45)
na
(0.48)
(0.43)
(0.47)
(0.46)
(0.56)
(0.57)
(0.45)
na
(0.56)
(0.61)
(0.61)
na
(0.58)
(0.46)
(0.59)
(0.50)
(0.46)
(0.54)
(0.51)
(0.59)
(0.61)
na
(0.56)
(0.58)
(0.57)
(0.59)
(0.62)
(0.61)
(0.59)
(0.58)

Source: CCIL, IDBI Bank Limited

Treasury Research Monthly Update

Table 4 | G-Sec, T-Bill & SDL Auction Details for the Month of November 2014
Date of
Auction

5-Nov-14
5-Nov-14
7-Nov-14
7-Nov-14
7-Nov-14
7-Nov-14
11-Nov-14
11-Nov-14
11-Nov-14
11-Nov-14
11-Nov-14
11-Nov-14
11-Nov-14
11-Nov-14
11-Nov-14
11-Nov-14
11-Nov-14
12-Nov-14
12-Nov-14
14-Nov-14
14-Nov-14
14-Nov-14
14-Nov-14
19-Nov-14
19-Nov-14
21-Nov-14
21-Nov-14
21-Nov-14
21-Nov-14
25-Nov-14
25-Nov-14
25-Nov-14
25-Nov-14
25-Nov-14
25-Nov-14
25-Nov-14
25-Nov-14
25-Nov-14
25-Nov-14
25-Nov-14
25-Nov-14
25-Nov-14
25-Nov-14
25-Nov-14
26-Nov-14
26-Nov-14
28-Nov-14
28-Nov-14
28-Nov-14
28-Nov-14

Security / State

91-Days T-Bill
182-Days T-Bill
8.27% GOI 2020
8.60% GOI 2028
8.30% GOI 2040
new 19-year
Goa
Gujarat
Maharashtra
Mizoram
Puducherry
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Telangana
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
91-Days T-Bill
364-Days T-Bill
8.27% GOI 2020
8.40% GOI 2024
9.20% GOI 2030
9.23% GOI 2043
91-Days T-Bill
182-Days T-Bill
8.27% GOI 2020
8.24% GOI 2033
8.30% GOI 2040
new 12-year
Andhra Pradesh
Bihar
Gujarat
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Nagaland
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
91-Days T-Bill
364-Days T-Bill
8.27% GOI 2020
8.40% GOI 2024
9.20% GOI 2030
new 30-year

Source: RBI, IDBI Bank Limited

Notified Competitive Non-Competitive Devolvment Cut-off Cut-off Bid-to Underwriting

Amount
Bids
Bids- Accepted
Amount
Yield(%) Prise Cover Comission
(Rs cr) Accepted
(Rs Cr)
(Rs)
Ratio
(Paise per
(Rs Cr)
Rs 100)
9000
6000
2000
7000
3000
3000
100
1000
1200
20
100
200
500
1000
800
1250
1000
8000
6000
3000
7000
2000
3000
8000
6000
2000
3000
3000
6000
2000
1000
1000
500
200
2500
1000
750
1500
150
300
500
1500
1250
1000
8000
6000
3000
6000
2000
3000

9000.00
6000.00
1991.50
6986.00
2994.90
2989.00
100.00
967.00
1163.00
20.00
100.00
192.00
500.00
1223.35
791.00
1218.00
991.00
8000.00
6000.00
2981.00
6966.80
1991.37
2996.85
8000.00
6000.00
1984.50
2993.00
2993.65
5968.45
1928.00
975.00
980.00
489.00
197.50
2385.70
986.40
736.00
1435.00
147.00
270.80
499.50
1805.00
1218.50
956.00
8000.00
6000.00
2984.00
5987.00
1989.24
2986.80

5500.00
2.00
8.50
14.00
5.10
11.00
33.00
37.00
8.00
26.65
9.00
32.00
9.00
6051.00
6.00
19.00
33.20
8.63
3.15
5003.14
174.00
15.50
7.00
6.35
31.55
72.00
25.00
20.00
11.00
2.50
114.30
13.60
14.00
65.00
3.00
29.20
0.50
70.00
31.50
44.00
8500.00
3.00
16.00
13.00
12.76
13.20

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

8.31
8.40
8.24
8.28
8.27
8.24
8.42
8.42
8.43
8.46
8.46
8.44
8.42
8.44
8.46
8.46
8.44
8.31
8.35
8.29
8.22
8.32
8.32
8.27
8.40
8.22
8.21
8.26
8.15
8.46
8.45
8.43
8.43
8.45
8.45
8.44
8.45
8.44
8.46
8.45
8.43
8.44
8.45
8.45
8.27
8.29
8.18
8.10
8.21
8.17

97.97
95.98
100.12
102.56
100.35
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
97.97
92.31
99.90
101.18
107.63
109.91
97.98
95.98
100.23
100.25
100.37
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
97.98
92.36
100.38
101.96
108.70
100.00

4.63
3.20
4.60
2.88
2.87
2.82
6.55
4.49
3.93
5.50
5.10
3.67
5.42
3.39
3.19
3.39
3.88
4.59
4.32
3.74
3.16
3.03
2.28
6.16
2.59
5.09
3.56
2.24
2.84
2.92
4.07
3.93
2.70
7.04
3.49
3.43
3.38
2.77
5.99
1.86
4.12
2.11
3.33
3.92
4.71
4.75
3.79
2.17
2.77
3.80

0.18
0.23
0.37
0.23
0.19
0.23
0.37
0.40
0.16
0.26
0.33
0.17
0.18
0.20
0.27
0.29

Treasury Research Monthly Update

G-Sec Market Technical Analysis

Figure 8 | 10-Year G-Sec (Daily)

Source: Thomson Reuters, IDBI Bank Limited

10 year G-Sec (8.40% GOI 2024):

During the month of Nov 2014 The 10 year yields after opening at 8.242, it has surged downward and closed the month at 8.08.
During the current month of December 2014 the surged continues and its currently at 7.908. The chart suggest the yield has broken
the support line of 8.11 and the immediate support might be at 7.90. The chart suggests it might consolidate and trade the month
in a narrow range where the resistance will be at 8.11 and the support at 7.90. If the support of 7.90 breaks then we might see the
yield going towards 7.60.

Treasury Research Monthly Update

Corporate Bond Market

Figure 9 | Benchmark AAA yield movement

Bond Yield Decline Further

11.0
10.6
10.2
%

9.8
9.4
9.0
8.6
8.2
7.8
Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14
5-year

10-year

Source: Reuters, IDBI Bank Limited

The corporate bond secondary market yields eased further over the
course of November. The fall in yields was primarily tracking the
softening in G-Sec yields, as well as the reduction in the credit spreads.
The buoyancy in corporate bonds was largely tracking the soft
readings on inflation and expectations of a softer interest rate
environment.
The benchmark 5Y yield closed the month 20bps lower at 8.60%.
The 1Y yield ended the month lower by 7bps at 8.59%. The 3Y
yield closed 28bps lower at 8.45%. At the longer end, the 10Y yield
closed 26bps lower at 8.55%.
The overall secondary market activity in corporate bonds remained
buoyant over the month of November. The average daily trading
volume during November was seen at Rs 5,901 cr against Rs 5,438
cr seen in October.

Credit Spreads Ease

Figure 10 | Benchmark AAA spread movement
1.40
1.20
%

1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00

The credit spreads eased considerably during the month of November.

The spreads eased across all tenors. The decline in spreads reflected
the easing in liquidity conditions as well as the overall bullish sentiment
in bond market amidst rising expectations over easing of interest
rates looking at the downtrend in inflation trajectory. The credit spread
on 1Y AAA paper closed the month unchanged at 15bps. However,
the 1Y spread had in fact turned negative during the course of the
month. The spread of 5Y AAA paper closed 7bps lower at 27bps.
The credit spread on 10Y AAA paper ended 7bps lower at 26bps.
The credit spread on the 3Y AAA paper ended the month 17bps
lower at 13bps.

Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14
5-year

10-year

Source: Reuters, IDBI Bank Limited

Table 5 | Corporate bond yields and spreads (As

of 28 Nov 2014)
(%)
Tenor

AAA
Rate Spread

Rate

AA
Spread

1 Year

8.59

0.15

8.79

0.35

8.99

0.55

3 Year

8.45

0.13

8.65

0.33

8.85

0.53

5 Year

8.60

0.27

8.80

0.47

9.00

0.67

10 Year

8.55

0.26

8.75

0.46

8.95

0.66

Source: Reuters, IDBI Bank Limited

AA+
Rate Spread

Primary Market Issuances

Major primary market bond issuances were as follows: HDFC issued
Major primary market bond issuances were as follows: MTNL issued
10-year bond worth Rs 1,500 cr for a coupon rate of 8.24% (semiannual). REC issued 5-year bonds worth Rs 1,700 cr for a coupon
rate of 8.56%. PFC issued 5-year bonds worth Rs 1,000 cr for a
coupon rate of 8.76%. Tata Motors issued 9-year bonds worth Rs
400 cr for a coupon rate of 9.40%. LIC Housing Finance issued 5year bonds worth Rs 600 cr for a coupon rate of 8.70%. EXIM
Bank issued 3-year bonds worth Rs 775 cr for a coupon rate of
8.50%.

Outlook
The corporate bond yields are expected to retain the softening bias.
This downward bias is primarily expected to occur tracking the positive
sentiment in G-Sec market, as well as the comfortable liquidity
condition in the money markets.

Treasury Research Monthly Update

Forex Market
Figure 11 | INR movements against USD

Rupee Weakens

50.0

USD/INR

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0
Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14
Source: Bloomberg, IDBI Bank Limited

Table 6 | Forex rates

Currency

INR
28-Nov-14 31-Oct-14

US Dollar

US$
28-Nov-14 31-Oct-14

62.0400

61.3600

Euro

77.16

77.19

1.2475

1.2580

Pound Sterling

97.36

98.06

1.5699

1.6007

Japanese Yen

52.45

55.28

118.23

111.61

Source: RBI, Bloomberg, IDBI Bank Limited

Table 7 | Forward premia

Forward Premia

(%)

28-Nov-14

31-Oct-14

28-Mar-14

1 Month

7.58

7.76

9.23

3 Month

7.60

7.84

8.80

6 Month

7.43

7.95

8.77

12 Month

7.06

7.56

8.56

Source: Reuters, IDBI Bank Limited

Figure 12 | Movement of 6 month forward premia

10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
%

8.0

The rupee traded on a considerable weakening bias over the

month of November. The weakness in currency was primarily
tracking an increased demand for dollars from corporates.
Moreover, the dollar too was seen strengthening globally. The
losses in rupee were muted slightly tracking a softer reading on
CPI inflation, which touched 5.5% levels in October. The rupee
then again weakened as the demand for dollars from corporates
persisted. The rupee then improved again temporarily seeing
interest rate easing by China and comments from a government
official highlighting possibility of the current account deficit for
current fiscal remaining contained between 1.7% to 2.0%.
However, amidst persistant demand for dollars, the rupee closed
the month of November considerably weak at Rs 62.04 levels.

Forward Premia Rates Decline, Sharply at Farther Tenors

The forward premia rates softened further during the month of

November. The fall in rates was seen to be sharper at the longer

tenors. The decline in rates was sharp during first few days of
the month. The rates then hardened by the middle of the month.
The rate thereon started easing and dropped sharply on the last
day. The 1M premia closed the month 18bps lower at 7.58%.
The 6M forward premia fell by 52bps to close the month at 7.43%.
The 3M forward premia closed 24bps lower at 7.60%. The 12M
forward premia ended lower by 50bps at 7.06%.

Outlook
The rupee is expected to maintain a largely weak bias tracking
continued demand for dollars. The dollar too has strengthened
globally tracking better macro data. The rupee could get some
boost from the upcoming CPI inflation reading, which is expected
to come in below the 4.5% mark. Another factor, that could
keep the weakening bias on rupee muted, is the softening
observed in global crude oil prices, as the oil imports account
for more than 30% of total imports.

7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14

Source: Reuters, IDBI Bank Limited

Treasury Research Monthly Update

Forex Market Technical Analysis

Figure 13 | USD/INR (Daily)

Figure 14 | EUR/USD (Daily)

Source: Thomson Reuters, IDBI Bank Limited

Source: Thomson Reuters, IDBI Bank Limited

USD/INR
USD/INR currency pair open at 61.50 then it has continuously moved upward and closed the month at near to its high of 62.04
during the month of Nov 2014. In the current month till now the pair moved in a range and it has now trading at 62.20. The
resistance fopr the pair might be around 62.30 and the support at 61.80.

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD currency pair after opening at 1.2515, it has moved downward and closed the month near its month at 1.2450. The
sentiment in Global is still negative, which might make the pair more volatile with downside bias. The technical chart suggests the
pair might get support at arround1.2200, if it breaks then the pair might go towards 1.12. On the upside the pair might face
resistance at around 1.2690 during the month of December.

10

Treasury Research Monthly Update

Swap Market
OIS Rates Softer Sharply

Figure 15 | 1Y & 5Y OIS Rate

The OIS rates eased further during November, and the movement
was quite substantial especially towards close. The decline in rates
was primarily tracking the buoyant sentiment in the G-Sec market.
The positive sentiment in markets was triggered by considerable
softening observed in retail levels inflation, which in turn raised hopes
of rate easing by the RBI. The fall in swap rates was also aided by
overall comfortable liquidity condition in money markets.

10.0
9.0

8.0
7.0
6.0
Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14
5 Year

1 Year

Source: Bloomberg, IDBI Bank Limited

Figure 16 | 1Y & 5Y Mifor Swap Rate

The 5Y OIS rate closed the month 37bps lower at 7.15%. The 3Y
rate too closed lower by 37bps at 7.18%. At the short end of the
curve the 1Y OIS rate ended 34bps lower at 7.76%. The 2Y rate
closed lower by 35bps at 7.32%. Since the easing was comparable
across tenors, the spreads remained mostly stable over the month.
The 1Y-5Y spread closed the month lower at negative 61bps. The
2Y-3Y spread closed a lower at negative 14bps. The 2Y-5Y and 3Y5Y spread closed at negative 17bps and negative 3bps respectively.

10.0
9.0

Mifor Swap Rates Decline Sharply

8.0

The Mifor swap rates declined considerably over the month of

November. The easing was sharper at the farther tenors. The swap
rates fell tracking the decline in forward premia rates.

7.0
6.0
5.0
Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14
5 Year

1 Year

Source: Bloomberg, IDBI Bank Limited

Table 8 | OIS and MIFOR Swap Rates

OIS

(%)

28-Nov

31-Oct

Change

1 Year

7.76

8.10

-0.34

2 Year

7.32

7.67

-0.35

3 Year

7.18

7.55

-0.37

5 Year

7.15

7.52

-0.37

28-Nov

31-Oct

Change

1 Year

7.67

7.96

-0.29

2 Year

6.76

7.20

-0.44

3 Year

6.72

7.20

-0.48

5 Year

6.82

7.25

-0.43

MIFOR Swaps

The 5Y swap rate closed 43bps lower at 6.82%. The 2Y swap rate
closed at 6.76%, a fall of 44bps. The 3Y Mifor swap rate closed
lower by 48bps at 6.72%. The illiquid and volatile 1Y Mifor Swap
rate closed 29bps lower at 7.67%. Since the downward movement
in rates was sharper at the farther end, swap curve flattened over the
course of the month. The 1Y-5Y spread closed 14bps lower at
negative 85 bps. The 2Y-3Y spread ended lower at negative 4bps
each.
.

Outlook
The OIS rates are expected to maintain their downward bias tracking
the buoyancy in G-Sec market as well as the comfortable money
market situation. This would be aided by the possibility of upcoming
CPI inflation reading coming below 4.5% levels, which in turn could
fuel hopes of an earlier rate easing by the RBI.

Source: Bloomberg, IDBI Bank Limited

11

Treasury Research Monthly Update

Banking & Monetary Indicator

Table 9 | Monetary & Banking Indicators for Latest Fortnight

(Rs cr)

Monetary Indicators

14-Nov-14

Change in
Fortnight

Change in
2013-14

Change in
2014-15

M3

10,143,770

(2,760)

719,340

646,440

1,748,450

90

101,630

15,710

10,560

(21,527)

Net RBI Credit to GOI*

556,820

(26,800)

67,810

(141,890)

Forex Reserves (US $ m)*

316,312

761

12,088

RBI Holding of Rupee Securities*

545,174

(4,561)

14-Nov-14

Change in
Fortnight

Change in
2013-14

Change in
2014-15

Aggregate Deposits

8,253,630

(23,320)

608,070

548,070

Total Bank Credit

6,252,940

(19,670)

372,720

258,840

105,850

(3,130)

5,370

7,370

6,147,090

(16,540)

367,360

251,480

22,080

980

(7,410)

(5,720)

Reserve Money*
Ways & Means - GOI*

Banking Indicators

Food Credit
Non Food Credit
Money in Call & Short Notice
CRR Balances

336,790

(3,250)

31,950

20,450

SLR Investments

2,415,940

800

191,600

203,120

Total Outstanding G-Secs #

3,827,777

Source: RBI, Government of India, IDBI Bank Ltd (Note: * As of 28 November 2014 # As of 1 December 2014)

Figure 17 | Growth in Aggregate Deposits (Rs cr)

Figure 18 | Growth in Non-Food Credit

1,200,000

800,000

(Rs cr)

700,000

1,000,000

600,000

800,000

500,000

600,000

400,000
300,000

400,000

200,000

200,000

100,000
-

5-Apr

5-Jun

5-Aug
2014-15

5-Oct

5-Dec

5-Apr

5-Feb

5-Jun

2013-14

5-Aug
2014-15

5-Oct

5-Dec

5-Feb

2013-14

Source: RBI, IDBI Bank Ltd.

Source: RBI, IDBI Bank Ltd.

Figure 19 | Money Supply Growth Y-o-Y % (Rs cr)

Figure 20 | Forex Reserves in USD Billion

16%

340

(Rs cr)

320
14%

300
12%

280
260

10%
Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul-13Oct-13Jan-14Apr-14Jul-14Oct-14
Source: RBI, IDBI Bank Ltd.

12

240
Ap r-12 Aug -12 Dec-12 Ap r-13 Aug -13 Dec-13 Ap r-14 Aug -14
Source: RBI, IDBI Bank Limited

Treasury Research Monthly Update

Monthly Indicators
(Base Year 2004-05)
INFLATION
WPI Growth Rates Y-o-Y
Headline
Primary Articles
Fuel & Power
Manufactured Products
Total Food
Non-Food Manufactured Products
Consumer Price Index (M-o-M)
General Index - Combined
General Index - ExFood - Combined
Core Index - Combined
General Index - Rural
General Index - Urban
CPI Inflation (Y-o-Y)
General Index - Combined
General Index - ExFood - Combined
Core Index - Combined
General Index - Rural
General Index - Urban

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

7.5%
15.3%
11.1%
2.9%
13.6%
3.0%

6.4%
10.8%
10.9%
3.0%
9.5%
3.3%

5.1%
6.8%
9.8%
3.0%
6.1%
3.4%

5.0%
6.3%
8.7%
3.4%
5.5%
3.8%

6.0%
7.3%
11.8%
3.7%
7.0%
4.0%

5.5%
7.0%
9.3%
3.7%
6.7%
3.9%

6.2%
8.6%
10.5%
3.9%
7.5%
4.0%

5.7%
7.0%
9.0%
3.9%
6.6%
4.1%

5.4%
6.8%
7.4%
4.1%
7.1%
4.0%

3.9%
3.7%
4.5%
3.7%
4.7%
3.6%

2.4%
2.2%
1.3%
2.8%
3.4%
2.8%

1.8%
1.4%
0.4%
2.4%
2.5%
2.6%

1.3%
0.6%
8.0%
1.6%
1.0%

-1.0%
0.6%
8.2%
-1.1%
-0.8%

-0.4%
0.5%
8.2%
-0.6%
-0.2%

-0.1%
0.3%
7.9%
-0.2%
0.2%

0.6%
0.4%
7.9%
0.6%
0.5%

0.7%
0.3%
7.8%
0.6%
0.9%

0.6%
0.3%
7.7%
0.6%
0.7%

0.9%
0.7%
7.5%
0.8%
0.9%

1.8%
0.7%
7.5%
1.8%
1.8%

0.9%
0.3%
6.9%
1.1%
0.8%

0.0%
0.3%
6.0%
0.3%
-0.3%

0.1%
0.4%
6.0%
0.1%
0.1%

11.2%
7.8%
8.0%
11.7%
10.5%

9.9%
7.9%
8.2%
10.5%
9.1%

8.8%
7.8%
8.2%
9.3%
8.1%

8.0%
7.5%
7.9%
8.4%
7.6%

8.3%
7.5%
7.9%
8.9%
7.5%

8.6%
7.4%
7.8%
9.2%
7.7%

8.3%
7.2%
7.7%
8.9%
7.6%

7.5%
6.9%
7.5%
7.9%
6.8%

8.0%
6.8%
7.5%
8.4%
7.4%

7.7%
6.3%
6.9%
8.3%
7.0%

6.5%
5.4%
6.0%
6.7%
6.3%

5.5%
5.4%
6.0%
5.5%
5.6%

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

(Base Year 2004-05

Aug-14 Sep-14
Oct-14

-6.1%
-8.4%
-5.6%
-8.4%

11.9%
15.5%
11.7%
10.4%

-10.7%
-16.7%
-11.4%
2.9%

1.5%
2.2%
1.2%
3.3%

-1.9%
-2.6%
-1.9%
-1.3%

0.1%
-3.8%
0.4%
1.2%

-3.4%
-1.4%
-4.2%
0.2%

3.3%
0.1%
4.8%
-4.6%

-----

-6.2%
-2.2%
-5.2%
-7.8%
-0.2%
-12.0%

12.4%
29.1%
6.9%
7.2%
5.1%
8.5%

-7.5%
-22.6%
-6.6%
-11.0%
-7.0%
-13.5%

2.5%
-3.0%
3.9%
0.7%
2.9%
-0.8%

-2.2%
18.7%
-2.8%
-8.6%
-19.3%
-1.3%

-0.1%
-3.7%
2.8%
0.7%
3.7%
-0.9%

0.6%
-15.2%
-2.3%
-4.5%
-0.4%
-7.0%

-1.8%
17.3%
-0.6%
7.4%
10.1%
5.8%

-------

-2.0%
2.3%
-3.9%
11.5%

-0.5%
0.5%
-1.3%
5.4%

3.7%
1.7%
3.0%
11.9%

5.6%
2.5%
5.9%
6.7%

4.3%
4.8%
2.9%
15.7%

0.4%
1.2%
-1.0%
11.7%

0.5%
2.0%
-1.3%
12.9%

2.5%
0.7%
2.5%
3.9%

-----

4.5%
-17.6%
4.0%
-5.2%
-9.8%
-2.0%

4.6%
-11.5%
1.3%
-2.2%
-11.8%
5.0%

8.6%
13.4%
3.0%
-4.8%
-7.7%
-2.7%

7.5%
4.2%
3.5%
4.6%
3.6%
5.2%

10.2%
23.3%
2.6%
-8.8%
-23.3%
1.9%

7.4%
-3.9%
3.0%
-7.7%
-20.9%
2.4%

9.2%
-9.8%
-0.1%
-6.5%
-15.0%
-0.4%

5.1%
11.6%
1.8%
-4.0%
-11.3%
1.5%

-------

4.47
0.06
1.93
-4.38
3.23
-0.68
4.79
2.27
10.45

2.53
0.67
-1.61
-9.32
2.83
-6.06
5.37
0.04
5.36

4.24
3.27
-0.06
-7.69
-2.16
11.06
3.05
6.65
11.20

2.35
5.48
-0.29
-2.22
-2.32
17.65
-1.97
8.70
6.30

7.25
8.11
0.07
-1.69
1.20
-1.02
4.19
13.56
15.65

2.65
6.18
-1.02
-8.96
-5.47
-4.24
-3.35
16.45
11.20

5.84
13.36
-4.89
-8.34
-4.32
-4.34
9.10
10.29
12.64

1.89
7.25
-1.09
-6.15
-2.46
-11.63
3.97
3.21
3.78

6.32
16.20
1.00
-4.24
4.23
-7.01
2.27
-1.03
13.25

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14
IIP Growth Rates M-o-M
Overall
-3.5%
9.7%
2.5%
Mining & Quarrying
4.1%
9.9%
2.4%
Manufacturing
-4.6%
10.0%
2.7%
Electricity
-2.5%
6.9%
1.0%
Use Based -Basic Goods
0.3%
7.4%
1.5%
Capital Goods
-4.7%
7.9%
-5.3%
Intermediate Goods
-4.0%
8.7%
0.6%
Consumer Goods
-7.9%
14.0%
7.8%
Consumer Durables
-20.3%
-2.8%
14.2%
Consumer Non-Durables
2.8%
25.2%
4.5%
IIP Growth Rates Y-o-Y
Overall
-1.3%
0.1%
1.1%
Mining & Quarrying
1.6%
2.6%
2.7%
Manufacturing
-2.6%
-1.1%
0.3%
Electricity
6.3%
7.5%
6.5%
Use Based -Basic Goods
2.7%
3.0%
2.8%
Capital Goods
0.1%
-2.5%
-3.9%
Intermediate Goods
3.7%
5.2%
4.3%
Consumer Goods
-8.9%
-4.6%
-0.5%
Consumer Durables
-21.7%
-16.4%
-8.3%
Consumer Non-Durables
2.2%
2.8%
4.5%
Growth in Eight Core Infrastructure Industries Index (Y-o-Y%)
Overall Index
1.73
2.06
1.61
Coal
2.34
-0.57
-0.69
Crude Oil
1.11
1.60
3.01
Natural Gas
-11.26
-9.91
-5.19
Refinery Products
-4.99
-1.70
-4.47
Fertilizers
0.56
4.15
1.22
Steel
3.91
3.14
3.44
Cement
4.23
1.11
1.45
Electricity
5.88
6.73
5.73
Source: CSO, office of Economic Adviser Ministry of Commerce & Industry, IDBI Bank Ltd

13

Treasury Research Monthly Update

Monthly Indicators
External Sector Data
Data in USD Million
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports in USD Million
--Oil Imports
--Non-Oil Imports
Growth Rates M-o-M
Trade Deficit
Exports
Imports
--Oil Imports
--Non-Oil Imports
Growth Rates Y-o-Y
Trade Deficit
Exports
Imports
--Oil Imports
--Non-Oil Imports
Foreign Investment Inflows
Equity (Net, in USD Millions)
Debt (Net, in USD Millions)
FISCAL INDICATORS (in Rs Cr)
Revenue Receipts
Tax Receipts
Non Tax Receipts
Non Debt Capital Receipts
Recovery of Loans
Other Receipts
Total Receipts
Non-Plan Expenditure
On Revenue Account
of which Interest Payments
On Capital Account
of which loans disbursed
Plan Expenditure
On Revenue Account
On Capital Account
of which loans disbursed
Total Expenditure
Fiscal Deficit
Revenue Deficit
Primary Deficit

Nov-13

Dec-13

Jan-14

Feb-14

Mar-14

Apr-14

May-14

Jun-14

Jul-14

Aug-14

Sep-14

Oct-14

-10002
23930
33704
12976
20729

-10285
26400
36685
13923
22762

-9493
26813
36307
13187
23120

-8191
25296
33487
13707
19780

-10468
29076
39544
15779
23765

-10161
25628
35789
12978
22811

-11235
27999
39233
14465
24768

-11763
26480
38243
13343
24900

-12229
27728
39956
14355
25601

-10839
26958
37797
12839
24958

-14247
28903
43151
14497
28653

-13357
26094
39452
12365
27086

-5.6%
-12.9%
-11.5%
-15.1%
-7.9%

2.8%
10.3%
8.8%
7.3%
9.8%

-7.7%
1.6%
-1.0%
-5.3%
1.6%

-13.7%
-5.7%
-7.8%
3.9%
-14.4%

27.8%
14.9%
18.1%
15.1%
20.1%

-2.9%
-11.9%
-9.5%
-17.8%
-4.0%

10.6%
9.3%
9.6%
11.5%
8.6%

4.7%
-5.4%
-2.5%
-7.8%
0.5%

4.0%
4.7%
4.5%
7.6%
2.8%

-11.4%
-2.8%
-5.4%
-10.6%
-2.5%

31.5%
7.2%
14.2%
12.9%
14.8%

-6.2%
-9.7%
-8.6%
-14.7%
-5.5%

-41.9%
2.9%
-16.7%
-1.0%
-24.2%

-41.5%
3.7%
-14.8%
1.2%
-22.3%

-52.5%
4.4%
-20.5%
-10.1%
-23.2%

-42.0%
-5.1%
-17.9%
-3.0%
-25.8%

6.8%
-4.8%
-3.4%
17.7%
-13.7%

-42.5%
5.2%
-14.8%
-0.6%
-21.3%

-42.0%
12.4%
-11.4%
2.4%
-17.9%

4.3%
10.2%
8.3%
10.9%
7.0%

-2.1%
7.3%
4.3%
12.7%
1.2%

1.4%
2.4%
2.1%
-15.0%
14.7%

132.7%
2.7%
26.0%
9.8%
36.4%

26.1%
-5.0%
3.6%
-19.1%
20.3%

1301
-957

2602
858

125
2062

229
1825

3297
1878

1595
-1519

2354
3347

2363
2826

2189
3829

887
2759

845
2615

-191
2920

Nov-13
46650
39640
7010
865
865
0
47515
76253
69699
30012
6554
7
22933
16960
5973
1992
99186
51671
40009
21659

Dec-13
131242
121495
9747
4521
680
3841
135763
82325
69644
34030
12681
-376
60271
39821
20450
1397
142596
6833
-21777
-27197

Jan-14
87972
58284
29688
1729
1653
76
89701
88313
83270
36915
5043
381
17840
12310
5530
1098
106153
16452
7608
-20463

Feb-14
61690
51189
10501
1666
885
781
63356
89982
85173
36465
4809
-191
39831
32045
7786
2236
129813
66457
55528
29992

Mar-14
231684
188912
42772
23194
1926
21268
254878
119577
123445
55658
-3868
-9458
44151
34172
9979
1919
163728
-91150
-74067
-146808

Apr-14
6929
977
5952
144
144
0
7073
97500
91769
23284
5731
-40
23027
16315
6712
1879
120527
113454
101155
90170

May-14
31576
27674
3902
853
853
0
32429
123230
106072
31573
17158
10831
36582
29429
7153
2108
159812
127383
103925
95810

Jun-14
75922
70436
5486
320
211
109
76242
81067
76688
35837
4379
-837
52197
43512
8658
1602
133264
57022
44278
21185

Jul-14
61205
47778
13427
2067
2054
13
63272
70094
63519
27921
6575
-13
20243
14747
5496
2033
90337
27065
17061
-856

Aug-14
94823
38594
56229
950
950
0
95773
123204
117660
35261
5544
48
45574
35508
10066
1438
168778
73005
58345
37744

Sep-14
147441
137732
9709
997
998
-1
148438
120669
112494
31794
8175
-239
68666
55236
13430
3292
189335
40897
20289
9103

Oct-14
62177
45681
16496
933
932
1
63110
79333
73296
20304
6037
254
20702
16462
4240
656
100035
36925
27581
16621

Source: DGCIFS, Controller General of Accounts (Ministry of Finance), IDBI Bank Ltd

14

Treasury Research Monthly Update

Quarterly Indicators
Y-o-Y GDP Indicators at Constant Prices (base 2004-05)
2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

Industry
Mining & Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas & Water
Services
Construction
Trade, Hotel, Transport & Comn
Fin, Ins, Real Estate & Bus Serv
Community, Soc & Per Services
GDP at Factor Cost

Q3
6.7%
4.4%
-0.4%
4.5%
9.7%
6.4%
7.6%
3.9%
11.0%
4.7%
6.1%

Q4
3.9%
4.4%
7.5%
3.9%
5.5%
6.0%
5.8%
3.1%
11.0%
6.3%
5.4%

Q1
1.8%
-0.6%
-1.1%
-1.1%
4.2%
6.7%
2.8%
4.0%
11.7%
7.6%
4.5%

Q2
1.8%
0.1%
-0.1%
0.0%
1.3%
6.5%
-1.9%
5.6%
10.6%
7.4%
4.6%

Q3
0.8%
2.0%
-2.0%
2.5%
2.6%
6.1%
1.0%
5.9%
10.2%
4.0%
4.4%

Q4
1.6%
2.0%
-4.8%
3.0%
0.9%
5.8%
2.4%
4.8%
11.2%
2.8%
4.4%

Q1
4.0%
-0.9%
-3.9%
-1.2%
3.8%
6.5%
1.1%
1.6%
12.9%
10.6%
4.7%

Q2
5.0%
1.8%
0.0%
1.3%
7.8%
6.1%
4.4%
3.6%
12.1%
3.6%
5.2%

Q3
3.7%
-0.9%
-1.2%
-1.5%
5.0%
6.4%
0.6%
2.9%
14.1%
5.7%
4.6%

Q4
6.3%
-0.5%
-0.4%
-1.4%
7.2%
5.8%
0.7%
3.9%
12.4%
3.3%
4.6%

Q1
3.8%
4.0%
2.1%
3.5%
10.2%
6.6%
4.8%
2.8%
10.4%
9.1%
5.7%

Q2
3.2%
1.2%
1.9%
0.1%
8.7%
6.8%
4.6%
3.8%
9.5%
9.6%
5.3%

Private Final Consumption Exp

Govt Final Consumption Exp
Gross Fixed Capital Formation

11.9%
6.3%
2.7%

11.0%
5.3%
9.7%

5.0%
10.2%
-4.1%

4.7%
9.9%
-0.6%

5.1%
4.5%
4.4%

8.3%
1.1%
8.1%

5.6%
12.9%
-2.8%

2.8%
-0.1%
3.1%

2.8%
3.6%
0.2%

8.2%
-0.4%
-0.9%

5.6%
8.8%
7.0%

5.8%
10.1%
0.0%

Balance of Payments Indicators (USD Millions)

2011-12
Merchandise Trade
Invisibles
Services
Transfers
Income
Current Account

Q2
-44511
13975
13992
15601
-15617
-18880

Foreign Investment
5289
Foreign Direct Investment
6485
Portfolio Investment
-1196
Loans
8498
External Assisstance
291
Commercial Borrowings
5336
Short Term
2871
Banking Capital
7049
Rupee Debt Service
-1
Other Capital
-1284.43
Capital Account
19551
Errors & Omissions
-394.57
Overall Balance of Payments 276

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

Q3
-48645
16108
16167
16410
-16468
-20160

Q4
-51647
17650
17521
16803
-16674
-21710

Q1
-43849
26756
14981
16664
-4889
-17093

Q2
-47793
26664
16328
15918
-5582
-21129

Q3
-58378
26608
16646
15762
-5800
-31770

Q4
-45635
27465
16960
15690
-5185
-18170

Q1
-50484
28695
16868
16658
-4831
-21789

Q2
-33305
28135
18371
16086
-6322
-5170

Q3
-33152
29054
18120
16380
-5446
-4097

Q4
-30668
29328
19605
16152
-6430
-1340

Q1
-34648
26788
17069
16413
-6694
-7860

6861
4963
1898
1602
1353
-327
576
-5487
0
4906.53
7883
-534.53
-12812

15282
1356
13926
2737
303
2282
152
1999
-47
-3447
16524
-552
-5738

1899
3821
-1922
5960
54
528
5378
9408
-26
-706
16535
1080
522

15877
8159
7718
5152
57
962
4133
5491
-1
-5774
20745
226
-158

11887
2106
9781
10795
343
2773
7679
5243
0
3545
31470
1081
781

17048
5733
11314
9218
529
4221
4468
-3572
-31
-2114
20549
302
2681

6263
6488
-225
3645
291
903
2451
10325
-25
346
20554
889
-346

1499
8101
-6602
-473
-163
1552
-1862
1162
-2
-6938
-4752
-433
-10355

8456
6066
2390
3012
-40
4211
-1159
15758
0
-3439
23787
-586
19103

10168
910
9258
1579
942
5111
-4474
-1796
-24
-730
9195
-749
7106

20607
8168
12440
1863
-50
1690
222
-115
-56
-2470
19830
-791
11179

Source: CSO, RBI, IDBI Bank Ltd

15

Treasury Research Monthly Update

Table 10 | Official Rates in Select Countries

Country
USA
UK
Euro Area
Japan
Australia
New Zealand
Canada
Switzerland
Russia
Brazil
China
South Korea
India

Benchmark
Fed Funds Rate
Official Bank Rate
Main Refinancing Rate
Uncollateralized Overnight Call Rate
Cash Rate Target
Official Cash Rate
Overnight Rate
3M CHF LIBOR Target Range
Key Rate
Selic Rate Target
1-year Lending Rate
Base Rate
Repo Rate

Rate
0%-0.25%
0.50%
0.05%
0%-0.1%
2.50%
3.50%
1.00%
0%-0.25%
9.50%
11.75%
5.60%
2.00%
8.00%

Last Change
-0.75% to -1.00%
-0.50%
-0.10%
-0.10%
-0.25%
0.25%
0.25%
-0.50%
1.50%
0.50%
-0.40%
-0.25%
0.25%

Date of Change
16-Dec-08
5-Mar-09
10-Sep-14
5-Oct-10
7-Aug-13
24-Jul-14
8-Sep-10
3-Aug-11
5-Nov-14
3-Dec-14
21-Nov-14
15-Oct-14
28-Jan-14

Source: Bloomberg, IDBI Bank Limited

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16

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