Professional Documents
Culture Documents
December 2014
Inteliace Research
AGENDA
Banking sector
Bank BPH
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
2
Inteliace Research
1
Volumes
Margins
Deposit margins have been under pressure again due to falling market interest rates
following central bank rate cuts.
Lending margins are in an increasing trend
3
Lending Quality
The overall lending quality is improving. Both consumer and corporate debt show
decreasing NPL rates.
The only loan category where quality is falling is mortgage. The cause is ageing portfolios
and only limited dilution from new loans due to very slow mortgage origination.
Profitability
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
3
Inteliace Research
30
28
26
26
24
24
22
22
20
Demand deposits
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
After a temporary
slow-down in 2014,
mortgage loans are
growing again faster
than consumer
lending.
Mortgage loans
10
Total
deposits
Household
deposits keep
growing. The term
structure is
fluctuating inline
with changing
interest rates
expectations
20
18
10
-2
-2
-4
-4
Term deposits
-6
Total HH loans
Consumer loans
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
-6
4
Inteliace Research
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
28
in
%
30
27
27
Demand deposits
24
21
The growth in
corporate volumes
has been positive and
increasing since the
beginning of 2013.
21
18
18
Total deposits
15
Total loans
15
12
12
-3
-3
-6
-6
-9
-9
-12
Investment &
other loans
Loans in c/a
Corporate deposits
have been growing
slightly faster than
corporate loans
recently. However,
looking forward, it is
corporate lending ,
which is expected to
grow faster than
deposits.
-12
Term deposits
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Dec-10
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
-24
Dec-11
-24
Sep-11
-21
Jun-11
-21
Mar-11
-18
Dec-10
-18
Jun-11
-15
Mar-11
-15
5
Inteliace Research
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
24
MOST OF RECENT BANKING VOLUMES GROWTH TOOK PLACE IN THE RETAIL SEGMENT
Recent changes in outstanding loans and deposits by business segment, Dec.2013-Oct.2014
in billion PLN
Deposits (billion PLN)
Loans (billion PLN)
536.5
32.8
569.3
547.1
Highest
absolute
volumes growth
in retail segment
+6.1%
26.1
573.2
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
Retail clients
(Households)
+4.8%
Dec-13
Oct-14
Dec-13
Oct-14
208.0
2.4
210.4
244.7
16.9
261.5
Corporate
clients*
+6.9%
+1.2%
Dec-13
Oct-14
Dec-13
Oct-14
6
*Corporate subjects only. Excluded: non-monetary financial institutions and public sector
Inteliace Research
Source: NBP, Inteliace Research
19
18
Consumer loans
17
16
14
SME loans
13
12
11
10
Corporate (big) loans
9
8
7
6
5
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
15
4
3
Mortgage loans
Jul-14
Sep-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jan-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jul-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
7
Inteliace Research
8
7.5
7
6.5
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
14
Deposit margins
are under pressure
again after the drop
of reference rates
in 2014.
12
Retail***
10
8
Corporate
Corporate
6
4
Retail
2
0
Sep-14
Sep-14
12
1.00
10
0.50
( on WIBOR 6M)
Interest Margin**
Retail
Retail (consumer)***
8
0.00
Lending margins
are steady
Corporate
-0.50
Lending margins
have stabilized (at
10% for consumer
lending and ~2% for
corporate loans) as
banks are able to
pass changes in
market interest
rates on clients.
Corporate
4
-1.00
2
0
-1.50
Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14
* Stock of term deposits or loans respectively (loans and funds in current account excluded)
** Theoretical margin calculated against WIBOR 6M
*** Consumer lending : Loans to households other than mortgage
Inteliace Research
Source: NBP, Inteliace Research
Sep-14
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
Change (in%)
Dec.12-Sep.14
+15%
176
15.6
175
15.5
15.4
173
15.3
172
15.2
171
15.1
170
15.0
Total employment
(left-hand scale)
169
88.8
90.7
93.0
91.8
94.6
97.2
101.0
7.9
8.1
8.2
8.1
8.3
8.6
8.9
+16%
14.9
168
14.8
167
14.7
166
11.3
11.2
11.3
11.4
11.4
11.3
11.3
0%
14.6
Dec-12
Mar-13
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
9
* Data for all banks operating in Poland including cooperative banks and foreign bank branches
Inteliace Research
Source: NBP, KNF, Inteliace Research
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
174
87.6
Thousands
Thousands
in thousand
AGENDA
Banking sector
Bank BPH
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
10
Inteliace Research
SINCE 2012, BANK BPH HAS BEEN SHRINKING WHILE THE BANKING MARKET
HAS BEEN GROWING
CAGR*
UNCONSOLIDATED
ACCOUNTS
PLN billion
-5.7
33.7
33.5
32.7
32.1
31.0
30.7
30.2
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
-12.3
2.65
2.63
2.56
2.45
2.45
2.31
2.21
2.11
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
33.5
11
* Compound Annual Growth Rate
Source: BANK BPH, KNF, Inteliace Research
Inteliace Research
PKO BP
Pekao
BZ WBK
115.2
8.0
0.1
mBank
113.1
7.9
0.2
ING
6.5
0.1
BGK
70.9
4.9
Getin Noble
66.4
4.6
-0.2
Millennium
60.3
4.2
-0.1
Raiffeisen
56.2
3.9
10
Citibank
11
BG
12
226.0
160.4
49.5
11.2
-0.7
1.6
0.2
3.4
0.0
40.2
2.8
0.1
Deutsche B.
34.9
2.4
13
Nordea**
30.7
2.1
-0.4
14
BPH
30.2
2.1
-0.3
15
Alior
29.2
2.0
82.0
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
93.6
0.8
15.7
0.4
0.1
12
CAGR
4Q12-3Q14
in billion PLN
22.2
22.1
21.8
21.2
20.5
20.3
19.9
19.8
Value of deposits*
in billion PLN
CAGR
4Q12-3Q14
-6
Retail
Corporate
& SME
Retail
Corporate
& SME
7.8
7.7
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.1
4.6
4.6
4.8
7.5
5.2
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.1
7.7
7.7
7.6
7.4
7.1
-3
-13
-5
Corporate
& SME
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4.4
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.6
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
Retail
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
2.8
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.3
Corporate
& SME
As combined loan volumes exceed client deposits, the difference has to be financed on the interbank market and by the major shareholder.
Bank's market share has been falling recently across key segments.
13
Inteliace Research
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
Retail
30
(2.75%)
21
(3.07%)
23
(2.79%)
14
(2.89%)
Average
= 2.47%
13
(2.28%)
22
(2.21%)
32
(2.71%)
35
(2.53%)
7
49
(1.38%) (2.30%)
Regions where
BPH`s network is
least developed
relative to other
banks
76
(2.99%)
35
(2.09%)
9
(1.82%)
29
(2.12%)
27
(2.69%)
19
(2.09%)
* Banking network including commercial banks, foreign bank branches, cooperative banks and SKOK credit unions
Inteliace Research
Source:
Inteliace
Research Bank outlets database 2014
Maj 2011
r.
14
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
Regions
where BPH`s
network is
best
developed
relative to
other banks
UNCONSOLIDATED
ACCOUNTS
Legend
Bank BPH
All commercial banks
2012
2013
14H1
0.3 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.6
2012
2013
14H1
2013
4.1
14H1
3.0
3.8
2.7
3.7
2012
2013
14H1
2013
Still high
operating cost
49.2
2012
69.4
81.1
51.0
2013
ROAE
%
48.5
14H1
2013
2.6
14H1
2.0
1.1
2012
1.6
14H1
1.7
1.0
2013
Depreciation
1.8
1.0
14H1
2013
14H1
14H1
2013
Net reserves
2012
14H1
14H1
2012
2013
Personnel costs
2012
2013
Low profitability
2012
14H1
Income tax
2012
2012
2013
14H1
15
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
SINCE EARLY 2010, BANK BPH HAS BEEN STRONGLY UNDERPERFORMING ITS
PEER GROUP
Performance Index
Jan 1, 2010 = 100%
%
160
WIG-BANKS*
140
100
Difference of 78 pp.:
WIG-banks: 131.6%
Bank BPH: 53.3%
80
60
40
BANK BPH
20
16
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
120
Date
2012
Buyer
Santander
Getin Noble
Bank
2013
PKO BP
Kredyt Bank
Retail business of
DnB NORD
Nordea bank
Market share
acquired**
~3.4%
Description
n/a
<0.2%
DnB Nord decided to divest retail operations in Poland and offered for
sale its retail branch network (40 outlets), retail and SME clients
(35,000) and retail lending portfolio (~1 billion PLN).
2.5%
2013
BNP Paribas
2014
Alior Bank
Bank BG
2.7%
Bank Meritum
~0.2%
? Expected value
of PLN ~4-5 billion
2.1%
(Q3 14)
Owner of the bank, General Electric Company is looking for buyers of BPH
as it wants to exit the investment which has failed to provide satisfactory
return over recent years.
Bank BPH
Raiffeisen
Polbank
17
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
2012
Price paid*
(for 100%)
Target
Inteliace Research
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
Recent Reports:
28
28
56
75
59
35
66
67
38
52
44
176
Liczba/Number
rednia / Average
= 58
59
37
48
88
>60
40-60
< 40
Inteliace Research
Mediana
Median (443)
Channels
GE money bank - 48 branches
GEpard, ~200 used car dealers
Dobry Kredyt consumer finance 12
outlets and ~1000 POS
Expander - 33 branches - financial
products distributor*
Shareholders
99
Results
Target Clients
Assets
Products
Only lending products on offer:
mortgage
refinancing loan
credit cards
installment loans
cash loans
car loans
PLN billion
Market
share
(%)
9.1
2003
2004
2005
1.6
1.6
1.7
Maximum: 947
Loans
PLN billion
14.2
6.6
7.6
100 8.6
200
Net Profit
Top notch risk management and collection
High performing sales staff
Fast loan processing and flexibility
High margins
Control over distributors (GEpard, Expander,
Dobry Kredyt)
Advanced cross-selling between segments
10.9
8.3
7.4
2003
Other
1
Concept Description
379 powiatw
General Electric
Company
CAGR**
Timeline
2004
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Inteliace Research
2005
51.2
PLN billion
2014
February - Mortgage Lending in Poland 14
May - Bank outlets database 14
May - Insurance commissions survey 14
May - Banking Market in Poland 14
June - Insurance Market in Poland 14
September - Top 200 CEE banks 14
November - Investment Funds and Asset Mgmt. 14
0.30
0.32
2003
2004
2005
20.4
26.7
22.8
0.14
ROE (%)
* Although Expander is distributing products from various banks, GE offer / for example mortgage/ is reported to be favoured
** Compound Annual Growth Rate
Inteliace Research
Source: Inteliace Analysis
Recent trends in the banking sector in Poland and bank BPH, December 2014
2013
February - Mortgage Lending in Poland 13
May - Banking Market in Poland 13
May - Bank outlets database 13
June - Insurance Market in Poland 13
September - Top 200 CEE banks 13
November - Investment Funds and Asset Mgmt. 13