INFLUENZA

Costs 10 billion for US annually

Affects 5-20% of population
Fever & aches exhaustion & death
Aware of it since 400 BC
Seasonal epidemic
- winter
- prevalent in higher rate than other seasons
respiratory infection
mammals and birds
RNA virus
3 subcategories:
A, B, C
A most epidemiologically significant
Found in many bird & mammals
Currently 2 strains: H1N1 and H3N2
Unlike B & C, major shifts in immunological properties
Differences between membrane proteins and surface receptors
Hemagglutin
Spike shaped membrane protein
Binds and attacks specific sugar chains on surface of host cell
Makes flu difficult to fight off
Facilitates fusion of viral membrane and host membrane, helping pathogen
replication
Fused, then HA engulfed by host cell, injects influenza genome, which will be copied
in cell
NA, neuraminidase
Function after replication
Has 4 subunits that have active sites. Sites bond to polysaccharide chains on surface
of host. Subunits clip off sugars at end of replication so pathogen and new viral cells
can detach from host cell and spread
The HA and NA = strain name
B more limited in replication and range of hosts
Cant mutations that A can
C humans and pigs only, not severe symptoms

Airborne transmission
Enhanced when higher humidity and higher rate of airflow
Spread from droplets from noses/mouths from coughs, sneezes, talking
Incubation period (between contraction and showing symptoms) is 1-3 days
Infectious period, 3-6 days
Retain lifelong immunity to strain and similar strains
Returned after 20 years, only affected young people
Most severe for infants, elderly, and ppl w/ compromised immune systems
Flu has ability to adapt to host population
Flu caused Spanish Flu pandemic, most deadly pandemic in human history
Infected 1/5 of world population
Unusual, fast acting
WWI provided mass movement of men & goods quick spread
Flu is still around bc
-drift evolution
escape recognition by host immune system
gradual change in antigens
host immune cells dont have corresponding antibodies
-antigenic shift
virus jump one species to another.
Strain A only
One host to another
Intermediate host
Most dangerous: 2 distinct strains to intermediate host, where genes
combine to make new mutated pathogen.
Phylogenetic tree
-show evolutionary relationships
competitive exclusion one strain out-competes its counterparts
vaccines effective
MATH:
Compartmental models that categorize people according to infection status
SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered)
SEAIR (susceptible, exposed, less infected, infected, recovered)

Explain variation in proportion of population that needs medical attention during

epidemics
SIR
Flux depends on population size and density
Most people recover quickly high flow
2 types, frequency dependent and density dependent
density dependent best for flu
infectivity constant beta
recovery rate, gamma
epidemic or endemic?
S(0) > gamma/beta
Then will be epidemic
Inverse, beta/gamma, = reproductive ratio
# secondary cases from primary case, entire population susceptible.
Greater than one, then will invade
Compare severity of different diseases
Do more math
Find that the disease burns out because of a lack of infected people, rather than
susceptible people
SEAIR more tailored for influenza
Can find the same info as SIR
Ie reproductive ratio and threshold phenomenon
More accurate for flu
Flux equations more complicated
Shed light on information that helps us decide how to best respond to flu