Professional Documents
Culture Documents
= , .
The function is called a probability density function (p.d.f) of r.v. and the set =
> 0 is called the support of the p.d.f. (or of r.v. ).
We have seen that the probability distribution of an absolutely Continuous type r.v. is
completely determined by its p.d.f (or its d.f.). Recall that a function : is a p.d.f of
some r.v. if, and only if, 0, and
= 1.
Let " and # be real numbers such that < " < # < . An absolutely continuous type r.v.
is said to have uniform (or rectangular) distribution over the interval ", # (written as
U", # ) if the p.d.f. of is given by
1
,
= ( # "
0 ,
otherwise
= 1,
We have a family U", # : < " < # < of uniform distributions corresponding to
different choices of " and # ( < " < # < .
1
Suppose that U", #, for some < " < # < . Then, for 2 1,2, ,
567 = 8 6
= 6
6
=
: #"
9
"
" A
" 6
#6
>1 + + ? @ + + ? @ C
=
2+1
#
#
#
and
56 = 8 5<7 6
"+# 6
@ E
= 8 D?
2
"+# 6
1
= D?
@ E
2
#"
:
9
=
9 :
A
9
6
:# "
0 , if 2 = 1, 3, 5,
= F # "6
Thus we have
26 2 + 1
567 = 8 6 =
and
, if 2 = 2, 4, 6,
#6
"
" A
" 6
>1 + + ? @ + + ? @ C , 2 = 1,2,
2+1
#
#
#
0, if 2 1, 3, 5,
$ A
#="
; Var X A
,
2
12
5U 0, 5V
$ V
,
80
5U
U
5AA
0,
and
Kurtosis ^<
5V 9
1.8.
5AA 5
Thus an uniform distribution is highly platykurtic (i.e., in comparison with normal distribution
having mean " = #/2, p.d.f. of U", # distribution has a flatter peak around its mean). The
flatness of p.d.f. around mean is due to distribution being less concentrated around its mean.
Moreover the value of of coefficient of skewness #< 0 suggests that the distribution of may
be symmetric about the mean 5<7 . Clearly
5<7 $ $ 5<7 , ,
and, therefore, the distribution of U", # is symmetric about 5<7 " = #/2.
or equivalently
"+# d "+#
=
,
2
2
= " + # .
b
=
0, if < "
"
, if " < # ,
i. e. ,
= F
#"
1, if #
Since the distribution of U", # is symmetric about 5<7 = " + #/2, we have
Median = Mean =
"+#
.
2
"+#
1
@ = ,
2
2
The lower quartile d< and the upper quartile dU of U", # are given by
1
3
d< = and
dU =
4
4
d< =
Also,
# + 3"
3# + "
and dU =
.
4
4
dU d< # "
=
.
2
4
j = Nk l
= k l
=
k l
#"
k l9 k l:
i. e. , j = ( # " , if 0 .
1, if = 0
Theorem 1.1
Let " and # be real constants such that < " < # < and let be a random variable of
absolutely continuous type with r" # = 1. Then U", #, if, and only if,
r n = r s , for any pair of intervals n, s [", # ] having the same lengths.
Proof.
rX v, u = rX [v, u = rX v, u] = rX [v, u]
= u v
uv
,
#"
depends only on the length (= u v) of the interval v, u/[v, u/v, u]/[v, u].
Conversely suppose that r n = r s for any pair of intervals n, s [", # ] having
the same lengths. For 0 < w 1, let
x w = r" < " + # "w =
" + # " w,
where is the d.f. of . Then, for 0 < w< 1, 0 < wA 1, 0 < w< + wA 1,
r" + # "w< < " + # " w< + wA = r" < " + # "wA ,
and therefore
= r" < " + # "w< + r" + # "w< < " + # "w< + wA
= x w< + x wA .
1
1.1
w
w
w
and x w = x + + = { x , 0 < w 1. 1.2
{
{
{
1
1
x = x + +
{
{
{
1
= x ? @ using 1.1
{
=
x 1 using 1.2
{
#
{
x 2 = 2, 2 0,1, 1.3
where denotes the set of rational numbers. Now let 0,1. Choose a sequence
2} : { = 1, 2, in 0,1 such that 2} (existence of such a sequence is guaranteed).
Then
x = lim x 2} since x =
" + # " is right continous
}
= .
It follows that
=
"
, ", # .
#"
~ U", # .
if < "
if " < #
if #
Theorem 1.2
Suppose that ~ ", # , for some real constants " and # such that < " < # < . Then
:
9 :
~ U0,1.
The p.d.f of is
Proof.
= (
Let =
:
9 :
9 :
:
9 :
0, otherwise
= , say. Clearly =
and p.d.f.
<
:
9 :
= < < n .
We have = 0,1 and < = " + # " , = 0, 1. Therefore
= " + # "|# "| n,<
=
1 , if 0 < < 1
.
0,
otherwise
"
~ U0,1.
#"
Example 1.1
Let v > 0 be a real constant. A point is chosen at random on the interval 0, v (i.e.,
U0, v).
(i)
(ii)
Solution.
(i)
If denotes the area of equilateral triangle having sides of length , find the mean
and variance of .
If the point divides the interval 0, v into subintervals n< 0, and nA p, v,
find the probability that the larger of these two subintervals is at least the double
the size of the smaller subinterval.
Figure 1.2
Therefore
,
3
and
.
2
2
1
3
3 A
2
2
4
N
N A
(ii)
3
3 A
N A
v ,
4
12
3
3
N V vV
16
80
and Var N A $ N
vV
.
60
8
Remark 1.1
1.1.
Definition 1.1
Let be a random variable (not necessarily of absolutely continuous type) with distribution
function
.
(i)
(ii)
Remark 1.2
Lemma 1.1
Let be a random variable having distribution function
and quantile function . Let
, 0, 1 and 0 % < % A % 1. Then
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
(vi)
c , provided 0 %
% 1;
;
w : w ,
10
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
Theorem 1.3
(ii)
Proof.
(i)
x = r , .
11
w : w w : w
r r
r % r %
A $ <
$ 0. 1.5
Using (1.4), (1.5) and Lemma 1.1 (iii) we get, for 0, 1,
0, if % 0
x , if 0 c % 1 ,
1, if 1
Therefore we have
(ii)
i. e.,
U0, 1.
Let U0, 1, so that r c , p0, 1q and r0 % % 1 1.
12
= r
= ,
= .
Remark 1.3
The above theorem provides a method to generate observations from any arbitrary continuous
distribution using observations from U0, 1 distribution. Suppose that we require an
observation from a distribution having known continuous d.f.
and quantile function
. To do so, the above theorem suggests that, generate an observation from the U0, 1
distribution and take = .
Example 1.2
(ii)
Solution.
(i)
=
||
, < < ;
{
1 } , if 0, 1, , {
=
,
0, otherwise
where { and 0, 1 are real constants.
=
kl
=
2
k
= ,
2
13
=
= +
kl
k l
=
+
2
2
k
= 1
.
2
Thus the d.f. of is given by
k
, if < 0
,
= F 2
k
1
,
if 0
2
and the q.f. of is given by
(ii)
1
ln2, if 0 < <
2.
=
< = F
1
ln21 ,
if < 1
2
Using Theorem 1.3 (ii) the desired random observation is given by
1
ln2 , if 0 < <
2 .
= = F
1
ln21 ,
if < 1
2
The distribution function of is given by
0, if < 0
{
if < + 1; = 0, 1, , { 1,
x = ? @ 1 } ,
~
1, if {
and the quantile function of is given by
= infw : x w
=
1,
{,
if 0 < 1 }
<
{
if ? @ 1 }
{
< ? @ 1 }
= 0, 1, , { 1
<
{
if ? @ 1 }
; .
< < 1
14
Now, using Theorem 1.3 (ii), the desired random observation is given by
1,
if 0 < 1 }
<
{
{
if ? @ 1 } < ? @ 1 } ; .
,
~
~
=
= 0, 1, , { 1
<
{
if ? @ 1 } < < 1
{,
Defination 2.1
" = k l : < ,
">0
k l : < , " ,
consider the following cases.
Case I
"0
k l : <
k
: <
and k l : <
<
15
k l :
<
: <
,
k
<
:
0,1
<
<
k l : <
k l : <
k l : <
k l :
<
and k l : <
0 k l :
<
<
:
<
0,1
16
<
:
<
<
k l : <
k l : < .
<
Fix " and choose k such that > ". Then we know that
kl
0 k l :
<
,
!
> 0
!
,
:;<
converges. Consequently
<
:;<
> 0.
k l : <
<
converges for any " . From the above discussion it follows that the integral
Case III
k l : <
"1
17
k l : <
will converge if, and only if, the integral
k l : < dt
<
k l : <
<
k l : <
" + 1 = k l :
l : <
= [ k l : ]
,
+ " k
Note that
18
1 = k
dt = 1. 2.2
{ = { 1! , { , 2.4
We have
1
= k l
2
= 2 k
1 A
? @ = 4 k
2
= 4 k
<A
k
;
.
On making the transformation = 2 cos and = 2 sin in the above integral (so that the
Jacobian of the transformation is 2), we have
A
1 A
? @ = 4 2 k
2
= 2 2 k
= k
2
2
19
= .
Since
1
= k l <A < 0,
2
we get
A = 2.5
<
and
In general
3
1
1
? @ = ? @ =
,
2
2
2
2
5
3 1 1
13
= = A .
2
2 2 2
2
2{ + 1
1 3 5 2{ 1
?
@=
,
2
2}
i.e., for { ,
A};<
A
A}!
}!V
{ , 2.6
, { . 2.7
Definition 2.2
An absolutely continuous type random variable is said to follow a gamma distribution with
shape parameter " > 0 and scale parameter > 0 (written as ~ x ", ) if its
probability density function is given by
1
: < , if > 0
k
|", = ( : "
.
0, otherwise
20
1
|", = :
k
"
: <
1
=
k l : <
"
= 1.
Theorem 2.1
Suppose that ~ x", , for some " > 0 and > 0. Define the random variable = .
: <
,
if > 0
= ( "
.
0, otherwise
= < < n
= ||n,
k
,
if > 0
.
= ( "
0, otherwise
: <
N 6 = 6
1
=
k
"
=
Thus
" + 2
,
"
~ x ", 1 N 6 =
Clearly, for 2 ,
:;6 <
2 > ".
" + 2
,
"
N 6 = N = 6 N 6 .
6
N 6 =
Therefore,
" + 2 6
.
"
2 .
5A7 = N A = "" + 1 A ,
5V = N 5<7 V = 5V7 45<7 5U7 + 65<7 A 5A7 35<7 V = 3" " + 2 V ,
22
5U
U
5AA
"
and
Kurtosis ^<
5V 3" = 2
6
3 = .
A
"
"
5A
Note that, as " , #< 0 and ^< 3. Also #< 0 and ^< 3. Thus the gamma
distribution is positively skewed and has sharper peaks than the normal distribution. For " 0
the distribution is heavily (positively) skewed. For large " " the gamma distribution very
much behaves like the normal distribution.
j N k l N k l ,
1
j
k
j 1 $
< l
, %
: <
1
. 2.10
23
The following theorem provides a relationship between gamma probabilities and Poisson
probabilities.
Theorem 2.2
For a positive integer { and for real constants > 0 and > 0, let x{, and P .
l
Then
k
k } <
i. e.,
=
{ }
<
~
l
, > 0, > 0.
r > = r ? > @. 2.11
r > =
k } <
= n} say, { ,
{ 1!
1
n} =
k
{ 1!
} <
+ { 1 k
1
k } <
+
k
=
{ 2!
{ 1!
k } <
+ n} < , { 2
{ 1!
} A
} <
k } < k } A
+
+ n} A , { 3
{ 1!
{ 2!
24
} <
=
~<
} <
=
~<
} <
=
Thus, for > 0,
+ n<
!
+ k
!
.
!
} <
r > =
~
<
r > = r ? > @ =
l
Example 2.1
For a positive integer { and > 0, let G{, . Define the random variable
} <
=
~
Solution. Note that r 0 = 1 and, by Theorem 2.2, the distribution function of
G{, is given by
0, if < 0
} <
k
=
.
,
if 0
1
!
25
Definition 2.3
For > 0, a G1, distribution is called an exponential distribution with scale parameter
denoted by Exp .
1 l
if > 0 .
= k ,
0, otherwise
Mean = 5<7 = N = ,
Variance = 5A = A ,
567 = N 6 = 2! 6 , 2 1,2, ,
5U
U
5AA
Kurtosis = ^< =
5V
= 9.
5AA
j = 1 < ,
<
= 2,
1
,
=
0, if < 0
l
i. e.,
=
.
1 k , if 0
26
r > w + | w
r w =
k
r w
P , 2.12
Let ~ Exp denote the lifetime of a component. Then the property (2.12) (or equivalently
the property (2.13)) about the lifetime of the component has the following interesting
interpretation. Given that the component has survived w units of time the probability that it will
survive additional units of time is the same as the probability that a fresh unit (of age 0) will
survive units of time. In other words the component is not aging with time (i.e., the used
component is as good as the new one). This property of a continuous type random variable is
also known as the lack of memory property (at each stage the component forgets its age and
behaves like a fresh component).
In the following theorem it is shown that the lack of memory property characterizes the
exponential among all continuous distributions having mass concentrated on 0, .
Theorem 2.2
s + = s t, s, t > 0
1 1
1
=
+ + +
{
{
{
{
1
= [
? @] , , { , using 2.14 2.15
{
27
<
1 = [
}]} , { . 2.16
=
? @
{
{
= [ 1] } , , { . 2.17
1
? @ = 1, {
{
1
lim
? @ = 1 ,
}
{
0 = 1 , since
is continuous,
which is not true as
0 = 0.
{ = D1
+ 1 + + 1E
1]}
= [
= 1, {
{ = 0 , {
lim
{ = 0,
}
6
, 2
0, ,
<
= ln .
28
where denotes the set of rational numbers. Now let 0, . Then there exists a
sequence 2} : { = 1, 2, of rational numbers in 0, such that lim} 2} = .
Therefore
=
lim 2}
}
= lim k
}
= k
.
1, if 0
=
k , if > 0
=
0, if < 0
1k
,
Exp .
if 0
Example 2.2
The waiting time for occurrence of an event N (say repair time of a machine) is exponentially
distributed with mean of 30 minutes. Find the conditional probability that the waiting time for
occurrence of event N is at least 5 hours given that it has not occurred in the first 3 hours.
Solution. Let be the waiting time (in hours) for the occurrence of event N. Then Exp .
<
Definition 2.4
29
=
k
}
F2 A {
}
<
A A , if
0
.
2
0, otherwise
Mean 5<7 N {,
Variance 5A 2{,
5U
U
5AA
2
2 ,
{
and
Kurtosis ^<
5V
12
A 3 = { .
5A
j Nk l 1 $ 2
}
A ,
1
% .
2
3. Beta Distribution
We will first provide the definition of the beta function.
Definition 3.1
< 1 <
< 1 <
<
1
<
<
converge.
< 1
lim
l
<
<
= 1,
<
A
<
converges, it follows that the integral
31
<
A
< 1 <
< 1
lim
l<
1 <
<
= 1,
<
1 <
<
A
< 1 <
<
A
< 1 <
Using the above arguments it can also be seen that the integral
<
diverges if 0 or 0.
< 1 <
Thus the beta function : 0, 0, 0, is well defined. For > 0 and > 0,
consider
32
= k
w < w k
= k
;l
w
s =
w
l <
Let us make the transformation w = and = 1 in the above integral. Then the
Jacobian of the transformation is
= .
Also,
Therefore,
<
= k
<
= k
< 1
; <
<
<
||
< 1 <
= + < 1 <
= + ,
, =
<
= < 1 < , > 0, > 0.
+
33
Let be a random variable of absolutely continuous type and let v > 0 and u 0 be real
constants. The random variable is said to follow the beta distribution with shape parameter
v, u (written as ~Bev, u) if its probability density function is given by
Definition 3.2
< 1 $ <
, if 0 % % 1
(
.
v, u
0, otherwise
Clearly 0 , and
<
1
< 1 $ < 1.
v, u
Suppose that Bev, u distribution, for some positive constants v and u. The, for 2 $v
<
1
N 6
6 < 1 $ <
v, u
i. e.,
N 6
<
1
;6 < 1 $ <
v, u
v = 2, u
v = 2 v = u
,
v, u
v v = u = 2
2 $v.
Therefore,
34
Mean = 5<7 = N =
5A7 = N A =
v
,
v+u
vv + 1
,
v + uv + u + 1
Variance = 5A = N A N A =
v +
v +
vu
uA v
+ u + 1
2u vvu
,
+ u + 1v + u + 2
uU v
3vu2u vA + vu
,
v + uV v + u + 1v + u + 2v + u + 3
5U
U
5AA
2u v v + u + 1
,
v+u+2
vu
j = N k l
<
1
=
k l < 1 <
v, u
<
1
<
(
1 <
=
v, u
!
<
=
; < 1 <
! Bv, u
~
35
Bv = , u
=
,
! Bv, u
z, k.,
j
~
,
v = uv =
, .
vv = u = !
1
r c
: < 1 $ : <
B", "
<
1
: < 1 $ : <
B", "
<
r 1 $
It follows that
r 1 $ c .
r c r1 $ c , .
Therefore
Bev, u 1 $ $
1 1
$ .
2 2
Thus if ~Be", ", for some " 0, then the distribution of is symmetric about A.
<
36
In the following theorem we establish a relationship between the beta and the binomial
probabilities.
Theorem 3.1
Let Be, {, for some positive integers and {. Then, for 0, 1,
r = r ,
;} <
1
+{1
< 1 } < = ?
@ 1 ;}
B, {
<
0, 1.
n,} = r
1
=
< 1 } <
B, {
+ { 1!
=
< 1 } < .
1! { 1!
+ { 1!
1 } <
{1
+
=
1 } A
1! { 1!
+ { 1!
=
1 }
! { 1!
+{1
= ?
@ 1 }
+{1
= ?
@ 1 }
<
+ { 1!
+
1 } A
! { 2!
<
<
+ n;<,}
<
+ { 1 ;<
1 } A + n;A,} A
+?
@
+1
37
;} A
+{1
= ?
@ 1 ;}
;} A
+{1
= ?
@ 1 ;}
;} <
+{1
= ?
@ 1 ;}
<
<
<
+ n;}
<,<
+ { 1!
+
;} A
+ { 2! 0!
Example 3.1
Time (in hours) to finish a job follows beta distribution with mean 1/3 hours and variance 2/63
hours. Find the probability that the job will be finished in 30 minutes.
Solution. Let denote the time to finish the job. Then Bev, u, for some v > 0 and u >
0. We have
Mean = N =
v
1
vu
2
= and Variance = Var =
=
v + uA v + u + 1 63
v+u
3
v = 2 and u = 4,
Be2, 4,
i. e.,
<
A
1
1
r ? < @ =
1 U
2
B2, 4
<
A
= 20 3 A + 3 U V
4. Normal Distribution
Recall that
13
.
16
1
= ? @ = k l
2
<
A
38
= 2 k
= k
2
1
k
k
A
k
=1
A
A
Definition 4.1
(i)
(ii)
A ,
< < .
The p.d.f. and the d.f. of 0, 1 distributions will be denoted by and respectively,
i.e.,
=
A ,
and z = =
5 = 5 + =
< < ,
2
1
k
A .
A ,
39
i. e.,
if ~ 5, A then $ 5 5 $ .
40
r c 5 $ r 5 =
r c 5 $ 1 $ r c 5 = .
Thus,
1
5, A
5 $ 1 $
5 = , , and
5 .
2
Figure 4.3
In particular
1
$ 1 $ , , and 0 .
2
5 = || n
A ,
is given by
,
$ % % .
41
5
0, 1.
i. e., ~ 5, A =
= r A .
= r
l
=
2
l
2
= k
=
A
A
<
A < k
A .
<
l
A , if
>0
,
= (2
0, otherwise
A < k
0, 1 = A <A .
Theorem 4.1
~ 0,1;
Theorem 4.2
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
Proof.
(i)
Let =
0 , if r is odd
2!
N 6 = F 6
, if r is even .
2
A
2 2 !
Then
Mean = 5<7 = N = 5,
Variance = 5A = Var = A ,
Coefficient of skewness = #< = 0,
and Kurtosis = ^< = 3.
For t
j = Nk l
2
1
k k
l
A
k l; k
l
= k l; A
k
A
l
A
l
A . using 4.1
= k l;
(ii)
l
l;
A ,
k
j = Nk l
43
= Nk l;
= k l Nk l
= k l j v
= k l k l;
= k
(iii)
;l;
, t
, t ,
j = k A , t
A
= , t .
2 !
~
For 2 1,2,
(iv)
0 , if r is odd
2!
= F 6
, if r is even.
2
2A !
2
Let =
Also by (iii)
Moreover
A
= 0 and N ?
N = 5 and N 5
@ = 1
= A
N = 5 and 5A = Var = A .
5U = N 5U = U N U = 0
5U
Skewness = #< = U = 0.
5AA
44
5V = N 5V = V N V = 3 V
5V
Kurtosis ^< A 3.
5A
Remark 4.1
In the 5, A distribution the parameters and A 0 are respectively the mean
and the variance of the distribution. Moreover is the standard deviation of the distribution.
Moreover, for 5, A distribution, the mean, the median and the mode coincide at 5.
If ~ 5, A then
r c
r
r c
$5
, .
Thus,
~ 5, A
$5
, .
45
Let
: be such that
: 1 $ ". Then
: is called the 1 $ "th quantile of . Clearly
$
: 1 $
: ".
Table 4.1. 1 $ "-th quantile of 0, 1 distribution for selected values of "
.001
3.092
.005
2.5758
.01
2.326
.025
1.96
.05
1.6499
.1
1.282
.25
.675
-3.5
.0002
0.5
.6915
-3.0
.0013
1.0
.8413
-2.5
.0062
1.5
.9332
-2.0
.0228
-1.5
.0668
2.0
.9772
-1.0
.1587
2.5
.9938
-0.5
.3085
3.0
.9987
0.0
0.5
3.5
.9998
Example 4.1
46
Let ~2,4. Find r 0, r|| 2, r1 < 3 and r 3| > 1.
Solution. We have
r 0 =
= 1 = .1587;
A
A
+ 1
A A
A
= 2 + 1 0
A A
A
= .0228 + 0.5
= 0.5228;
U A
A
< A
A
= 0.5 0.5
= 20.5 1 since + = 1,
= 2 .6915 1
and
= 0.383;
r1 < 3
r > 1
0.383
1 0.5
0.383
1 0.3085
= .5539.
Example 4.2
Let 0, 1 and let = [||], where, for a real number , [] denotes the largest integer
not exceeding .
47
(i)
(ii)
Solution.
(i)
=
=
(ii)
N ||6 = N A
<
6 k A A <
A
6;<
2
2 A
6;<
<
A
k A
+1
2
+1
2 .
=
N = r {
}~<
= r|| {
}~<
= [r { + r {]
}~<
= [{ + 1 {]
}~<
= 2 [1 {].
}~<
Problems
1. Let ~0, , where is a positive integer and let = [], where [ ] is the
largest integer . Show that ~ 0, 1.
48
,
=
,
if || 1
.
if || > 1
=
<
k
l
A .
11. Let 0, 1. Find E and E A . (Hint: Use the fact that 7 =
and integrate by parts.)
49