The Nepalese sentiment was so anti-India that even the Prime Minister's visit to the country after

such a long time was not able to coerce the Nepalese govt into signing an agreement with the
Indian govt for cooperation in the field of water resources.
India approved financial assistance for USD 1 Million for the renovation of Kandahar Cricket
Stadium.
America's realpolitik with regards to India is Machiavellian, it wants India to be the junior partner
much like Great Britain has been since the 1950s.
If Europe represents the past, the US represents the present then India and China represents the
future.
China has supplied CSS-2 missiles to Saudi Arabia(plus could also source nuclear warheads from
Pakistan) and there is a possibility that the Saudis might use that against Iran if the situation
worsens.
For the first time India and the US have mentioned the South China Sea in the joint press
statement.
India has become a global swing-state, especially in the geopolitical calculations of the world
vis-a-vis India.
India is US's strategic partner only because it expects US to lead in the world and in Asia (in
particular). If US backs off from its 'Pivot to Asia', India will have to take that into consideration and
become less involved in any American led effort to contain Chinese aggression.
Difference between dealing with China and Pak is respectively that with one you are dealing with
4000 yrs of statecraft and with the other you are not sure if you are even dealing with the state. Shiv Shankar Menon
LoC is a formally demarcated boundary, countersigned by both the DGMOs. Yet it is this and not
the LAC which is the live and hot.
For supporting Israel, India had to face a 7 day long oil embargo from Saudi Arabia in 1974.
World Bank has floated Global Infrastructure Facility(GIF) to counter the Asian Infrastructural
Investment Bank and New Development Bank. Though on paper it pledges to work with the AIIB,
NDB as well as the Asian Development Bank. It has the stated function to invest in Emerging
Markets and Developing Economies(EMDEs).
PM Modi wants to convert the Look-East Policy into Action-East Policy. PM Modi thus wants the
connection and bus service between Manipur and Mandalay, Myanamar as soon as possible and
also link a new super-highway between NE India and Thailand via Myanmar and Vietnam. This will
bring India closer to the oil rigs off the coast of Myanmar and Vietnam and also to the Japanese
products being manufactured in Thailand.
President Xi Jinping's anti-corruption faction tends to arrest only politicians affiliated to Jiang
Zemin's rival faction.
Every military coup in Pakistan has been upheld by Pakistani judiciary under the 'Doctrine of State
Necessity'. Also, all coups in Pakistan have been bloodless.
Chabahar port in Iran is being built to give India access to Afghanistan and Central Asia bypassing
Pakistan and is being built by Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust and Kandla Port Trust jointly. The route
will be used for transportation of gas, urea etc. The port is located in Sistan-Baluchistan province
of Iran and is about 900 km from Zaranj in Afghanistan. From there we can access the
Zaranj-Delaram road(which India built in 2009) and get to the Garland Highway in Afghanistan
which joins the 4 big cities of Afghanistan - Herat, Kandahar, Mazar-e-Sharif and Kabul. Irans offer
to make the province a free-trade zone and offer India preferential tariffs for its exports en route to
Afghanistan and Central Asia is also a game-changer and bodes well for the development of
Chabahar. In Afghanistan, both India and Iran supported the Tajik-led Northern Alliance in the
decades of civil war that followed the Soviet withdrawal, and, in a sense, were both on the losing
side, when the Pakistan-backed Taliban emerged in power at the end of the struggle. The Taliban
was inimical to the interests of India and Iran and it showed: Iran and the Taliban nearly fought a
war in 1998 over the killing of Iranian diplomats and journalists in the Talibans capture of
Mazar-i-Sharif. India, too, suffered as the Taliban-led Afghanistan proved a fertile breeding ground

for anti-India jihadist groups who used the Pashtun heartlands as a base for terror attacks in
Kashmir and other parts of India. Last month Iran warned Pakistan of hot-pursuits into Pakistani
territory for trying to let Baloch-based Jihadi groups enter into Iran.
Malabar Exercise is an annual bilateral security summit between India and US. This year, India
also invited Japan. Like 200 and 2009, the previous two times India invited Japan, this time also it
drew a veiled protest from China. Officially the exercise is seen as a counter-piracy measure but in
the past few years it has taken the role of a bilateral security exercise.
At a time when US is fighting for its hegemony in Europe in the form of EU, Putin is talking about
'Greater Russia' and the 'Greatest Divided People'. Ukraine seems to have been caught in
between two questions - 1. Whether to chose US or Russia? 2. Whether to strive for strategic
autonomy or dependence on a big brother? ** FYI, In 1922, Ukraine along with Russia became the
founder of the Soviet Union.
Earlier everyone was thinking that Chinese will only be a 'large Switzerland' - only interested in
making money. But this perception has changed in the last 4-5 years with the Chinese aggression
in East and South China seas.

India-Japan Relationship
1. Okakura Kakuzo - Rabindranath Tagore
2. Hideki Tojo - Subhash Chandra Bose(Bose's strategic maneuver of joining hands with fascist Japan
in order to free India from British colonialism was controversial, but it reaffirmed the notion that the two
countries' fates are intertwined due to their pivotal geographical location in what is now called the
'Indo-Pacific' region.)
3. Chinese leaders come to India and make strong territorial claims on Indian territory and so PM
Modi's oblique reference to the Senkaku Islands dispute and our empathy with the Japanese is a bold
move.
4. The Chinese appreciate power. The Chinese foreign policy is deeply rooted in realpolitik.
5. Nuclear deal with Japan is difficult to clinch post 2011 Fukushima Nuclear incident. And as an
extension to that, the Americans will not be able to do sell Nuclear reactors to India because of
Japanese companies like Hitahi which have a substantial stake in the US nuclear industry. Hence, the
commitment by both the PMs to speed up the negotiation process must be welcomed.
6. The India-Japan deal must be divided into 3 segments: High Level Political Engagement(2+2
dialogue which involved the foreign and defense secretaries of the 2 sides were elevated to the
ministerial level), The Operational Engagement(Joint Military exercises, trilateral security dialogues
including USA(which India is not very favorable to)) and Defense & Industrial engagement(US2(which
both sides consider a civilian deal) and Nuclear energy)
India and the Commonwealth
1. Historically, India's proactiveness in remaining a part of the Commowealth games in 1948, was a
pioneering step in giving confidence to other Asian/African nations that remaining a part of the
COmmonwealth need not mean that a nation is still under subjugation of the British crown.
2. With nearly 60% of the total commonwealth population, India is a pivotal member of the group and is
a member of nearly every committee of the Commonwealth secretariat in London. The current
Secretary General - Kamalesh Sharma is a member of the IFS.
3. Benefits for India:
a. About 32 small states in the Commonwealth and India does not have a permanent mission in many
of them. Hence it gives India the diplomatic platform to interact with them.
b. Commonwealth has a rich tradition of not letting bilateral disputes hinder the progress of the block,
unlike say SAARC where Pak-India equation dominates the political scene.
c. Commonwealth straddles the North-South divide and there is a genuine exchanges between the
haves and the have-nots.
d. The Commonwealth Head of Governments Meetings(CHOGMs) are less formal than say the G8
and UN General Assembly summits and the HoGs thought the Retreat Sessions have an opportunity

to form a wider consensus on important issues.

e. Commonwealth election observers enjoy a great amount of credibility while being non-intrusive and
help India further its cherished ideals of democracy and freedom of political expression.
f. India has exploited the facility of Commonwealth Fund for Technical Cooperation(CFTC) to help
financially the development of under-developed country and hence, used it as a tool to increase its
diplomatic clout.
g. The Commonwealth Youth Programme(CYP) helps in the cooperation in the field of youth
development and is especially beneficial for a young country like India with one of CYP's four global
centers located in Chandigarh.
h. Commonwealth Games provides good international exposure to Indian athletes.
Nehru's Legacy
1. Nehru gave the UNSC seat to China when it was offered to India.
2. He gave Gwadar to Pakistan when the same was offered to India by the Sultan of Oman for just $ 1
Million.
3. He the Coco Island to Myanmar for Re 1 which has now sublet it to China which apparently has built
a military observation post to keep a tab on Indian military exercises and missile test fires of the East
coast of India. It must be noted that the Coco Islands are just a few nautical miles north of the Landfall
Islands of A&N Islands.
4. An error committed in his tenure which gave two 'fish-tail shaped' parts of Indian territory in
Arunachal Pradesh - one in the Upper Dibang valley and other in the Lower Dibang valley - to china.
Infact, successive governments in New Delhi have not rectified it protect Nehru's legacy. These are by
no means small territories, one is of the size comparable to that of Goa and the other comparable to
Sikkim.
Economics with China
1. The Chinese investments in other countries are in one of the two forms:
a. As Projects being awarded to Chinese companies
b. In resources that could be fed back into the domestic economy for its own growth
i. The 20 Billion Dollar investment of China on Xi Jinping's visit is a little misleading as this 20 Billion
USD will be for the setting up of industrial parks but the then Chinese companies would further be
investing into these industrial parks.
ii. China is sitting atop 4 Trillion USD worth of monetary resources and they amount to nothing if they
cannot be invested into a stable and promising market like India. Also, this monetary resource is at risk
because most of it is in USD and Euros, besides India needs these to strengthen its own currency. So
its a win-win situation for both the sides.
3. India's trade deficit with China is huge and thus is likely to impose import duties on Chinese goods
and services. This can create problems in Indo-China relationship as China could percieve this as
India attempting to stifle China's industries competitiveness. But India believes that this trade deficit
will lead to China dumping ultra-cheap goods into India and push out domestic competitors and then
raise costs of the products again.
4. US has already put import duties on Chinese Solar panels.
5. China has invested globally about $90 Bn and their investment to India is only about $450 Mn. To
think that they will invest $20 Bn in India looks like a mirage.
6. All the Chinese investment will be hostage to even a single border flare-up.
North-East India trade with neighboring countries
1. Asian Trilateral Highway project will join North East and Thailand via Myanmar, and is to be
completed by 2016-17.
2. The Kaladan multimodal transport project which is to join Kolkata and the Sittwe port in Myanmar
and the Sittwe port will be joined with Mizoram via both road and waterway(on the kaladan river).
3. Talks are on to join the North-East India to join the rest of the India via Bangladesh in order to

reduce transport cost and time. This will also double up as an economic corridor and the Chittagong
port could then be also used for trade facilitation in the North East.
4. The Stilwell road used to used during the WW II era(it connected the India, Myanmar and China) but
for our own strategic interest, we'll be switching to the coming up BCIM Corridor(Bangladesh, China,
India and Myanmar).
5. SAFTA could link Bangladesh and Bhutan directly to the north-east.
Effects of protests in Pakistan on India-Pakistan relations
1. Nawaz Sharif wanted more tranquility on the LoC plus he genuinely wanted good trade relations
with India as that was the only way to revive the Pakistani economy(a key Nawaz Sharif poll promise) the goodwill was on display during the Saree-Shawl diplomacy. Military was adamant and wanted
greater say in the security policy of Pakistan and hence could be seen as passively and tacitly
approving the protests. In fact, General Raheel Shareef was called upon to mediate the talks between
the protesters and the govt.
2. Tehreek-i-Insaaf's Imran Khan has alleged that Nawaz Sharif's election is illegal and as a result he
must step down. Such a scenario would further weaken democracy in Pakistan and could lead to
chronic instability. Pakistani Awami Tehreek's Tahir-ul-Qadri has made it more of a social revolution; he
says that Pakistani govt has not fulfilled the first 40 articles of the Paki Constitution which are mostly
about rights(education, livelihood etc) and hence the govt is unconstitutional. But the larger question is
that by that logic every Paki govt was unconstitutional and will only become constitutional upon the
Pakistan attaining western standards of quality of life.
3. After the protests two things are bound to happen:
a. Nawaz Sharif would be reduced to a 'Ceremonial Prime Minister' since in the popular imagination he
would have lost the moral authority to govern
b. Nawaz Sharif would be willing to make more concessions to the military with regards to the
Pakistan's policy vis-a-vis post-NATO afghanistan and India
4. If elections were rigged as Imran Khan is saying, why didnt the protest take place in 2013.
5. Tahir-ul-Qadri mostly was addressing his moderate Barelvi base but after the Model Town tragedy in
June, 2014, he has become reckless in his statements and said that should he be killed, his followers
must kill all male members of Nawaz Sharif's family.
6. PTI's support base is in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and so it is getting a lot of support
from these areas. And similarly PAT is getting a lot of support from the non-Punjabi community in
Pakistan. The movement somehow seemed to go in the mould of an anti-Punjabi dominance struggle.
Peculiarly though, Sindh has kept put of it.
7. Pakistani govt came to the rescue of Nawaz Sharif by invoking Article 245 of the constitution which
essentially means that the army can aid the civilian authority in cases of civil disturbances and the
actions of the army cannot be questioned in a court of law. This seemed to also be a message to Imran
Khan by Nawaz Sharif that the army is with them. Also the army wanted assurances as to it being not
questioned in courts for its actions.
8. We got to know about the mindset of the new ISI chief Rizwan Akhtar who succeeded Zahir-ul-Islam.
As unlike Zahir-ul-Islam who in the Corps Commanders Conference in August wanted to intervene if
the situation in Pakistan got worse, Rizwan Akhtar, reportedly, does not believe in military intervention
in Civilian Affairs.
PNS Zulfikar Incident
1. Attempt to hijack PNS Zulfikar - a naval frigate on 6th September 2014.
2. First attack by AQIS(Al-Qaeda in South Asia).
3. Worrying for both India and US as they had inside help and Pakistani Naval officers have been
arrested after the incident.
4. The plan was to direct the ship and attack a US warship in the region. PNS Zulfiqar was equipped
with anti-ship missiles with a range of 300km.

Hong-Kong Democracy
1. British won Hong Kong during the Opium wars was returned to China in 1997 under the 'One
Country - Two Systems' rule, wherein while being in China they could maintain western style
freedoms.
2. China promised that Hong-Kong would be able to have free election in 2017.
3. The disagreement is over the meaning of 'free election'. Hong Kong citizen say that it implies that
the people would be able to nominate and vote their chief executive. But the Chinese National
People's Congress(Parliament) ruled in August that though Hong Kong could vote, their nominees
would be approved by the CPC - and there lies the danger of nominating all pro-Beijing loyalists.
4. The Occupy Central movement aims to occupy the financial hub of Hong Kong if the democratic
demands were not met. Also the 'Scholarism' movement has school and university students boycott
exams and academics and demand democracy. This group is the first group to have been born after
the Communist takeover of China and polls show that the younger Hong Kongers are vying for change
more than their elders and this could make these protests a long drawn process.
5. This plan of the CPC has to be ratified by the Hong Kong legislature. Hong Kong legislature has
enough pan-democratic legislators who won't let the bill pass but if the bill doesn't pass the CPC says
then in 2017 also like the past there will not be any elections and the Chief Executive would be picked
directly.
6. China seems to be playing the waiting game and will erode Hong-Kong's freedom slowly and not
suddenly. But the people of Hong Kong has a long history of protest. In 2003 they forced the Chinese
Communist Party to back down when they proposed amendment to Article 23 of the Hong Kong
constitution in 2003. And this time their is the probability of a much larger protest and civil
disobedience.
7. The protesters are now wanting direct elections and not Universal Suffrage. Direct Election has not
been a part of the Hong Kong Basic Law and has not been asked for by democrats like Martin Lee
ever.
8. There was also a social aspect of the protest - Property price so high that it is almost impossible for
a Hong-Konger to buy a house. Hong Kong topped the list in Index of Crony Capitalism even beating
countries like Russia. Migration from Mainland China. Confidence in govt all time low.
9. Hong Kong has had a degree of success in the past. In the early 2000s they protested twice and
succeeded in making the govt roll back a security legislation that impinged on their freedom and the
second time against textbooks being made compulsory that had sensored Tiananmen Square incident
and also had a lot of elements of cultural revolution.
10. Hong Kong used to be called the gateway to China. Today the contribution of Hong Kong in the
Chinese GDP has dramatically fallen. This is also one of the reasons of protests.
11. Xi Jinping as the Vice President of China also headed the Leading Small Group on Hong Kong and
Macau Affairs and thus is very well versed with the political activities of the region.
12. Democracy is not conducive to crony capitalism in HK. Thats why capitalists are in regular touch
with the CPC. When CY Leung was elected as HK's CE, he narrowly won against people who were
supported and funded by the capitalists.
13. Finally it can be said that CPC is ready to follow the letter of the law but not the spirit of the law.
India Soft-Power Advantage
1. Tony Abbott recently was asked in an interview that as to why did his govt decide to sell Uranium to
India. The PM replied, 'India threatens no-one and is a friend to many'. This wasn't a diplomatic nicety
but a carefully chosen answer based on India's image in the world.
2. Today India is the only known non-NPT state allowed to indulge in global nuclear commerce.
3. Pakistan wouldn't have been as adventurous while dealing with India had it not witnessed India's
restraint first-hand.
4. India is one of fiercest voices in favor of Nuclear-Disarmament since PM Rajiv Gandhi.
5. India has stood against all kinds of International interventions irrespective of who intervenes on
behalf of whom. Syria, Iraq, etc - India has always opposed such interventions, mostly because in her

worldview a tolerance for kinds of regimes and government forms are manifest.
6. Historically, Gandhi's non-violent lead in India's freedom struggle and JL Nehru's initiatives such as
NAM gave the initial impetus for India's soft power.
7. As our strategic interests widen and as India takes it's rightful place in the world, with calculated
statecraft, our biggest challenge would be to convert this soft power into hard gains for India.
Independence movements in Europe apart from Scotland
1. Catalonis from Spain
a. Seperate language, culture, cuisine, parliament and architecture. Capital is Barcelona.
b. Unlike Scotland, Catalonia referendum to have 2-part question - Should Catalonia be a state?
Should that state be independent?
c. Independence movements going on for decades.
2. Basque region between Spain and France - Violence and terror used in the past.
3. Veneto(region around Venice) from Italy - Protesters allege that Rome takes away their resources
but gives back only a little.
4. Dutch speaking Flanders from Belgium - Many citizens want greater autonomy but a lot of them also
want outright independence.
5. Not entirely unheard of in Europe as Norway left Sweden in the early part of 19th century.
6. The Union of States in 1707 was for economic reasons and if the secession happens it will also
happen because of economics.
7. Currency unions without political unions are always fraught with danger of instability, for eg. the
Euro.
8. Reasons of Scottish defeat
a. Inability of keeping the pound as a currency
b. Other economic concerns like stability of economy. But after Cold War, Eastern Europe sustained
the shock therapy pretty well and came out of it pretty well. Besides Scotland already has a capitalist
economy. Fears were being played up by the NO campaign.
c. Security concerns. But an independent Scotland could have joined NATO to counter an assertive
Russia.
d. Uncertainty about Oil reserves.
e. Bandwagon effect in borderline elections
9. Secessionists from all across the world had descended upon Scotland to observe the election for
self determination.
Counter String of Pearls theory
1. Iron Curtain doctrine
2. Indian navy's hydro-graphic missions for Middle East and South-East Asian countries
3. Listening posts in East African island countries
4. Economic incentives like Double-Taxation Avoidance Treaty with Mauritius
5. More naval exercises with IOR-ARC countries
6. If the SoP was real why are they worried about OVL(ONGC Videsh Ltd) investing in Vietnam.
7. The Maritime Silk Route is a counter to the Western Re balancing. MSR is getting lukewarm
response in Western Pacific Region but an enthusiastic response in the Indian Ocean.
India's Tibet Policy
1. Dominant and hegemonic powers tend to expand their boundaries uptil the point they encounter a
natural barrier which acts as the de-facto boundary or they encounter a stiff and strong neighbor that is
unwilling to cede an inch. - This is the thumb rule of modern day geo-politics.
2. It is not the border but the tibet question that is the route cause for everything that is sore in
Indo-Sino relationship. The first thing the Chinese want is to make every visiting Indian leader
acknowledge that Tibet is an integral part of China. In a sense the status of Tibert serves as the test
case for the survival of China as a state, at-least acc to the Chinese.

3. Historical Dimension
a. Buddhism traveled from India to Tibet and hence by 9th century AD the whole of Tibet converted to
Buddhism. From a nation of warriors it became a nation of pacifists.
b. During the British control over India, British agreed to the suzerainty of China over Tibet and agreed
that all foreign agreements between Tibet and and the foreign party would be carried via the 'good
offices of Peking'.
c. when in 1950, China annexed Tibet, India only mildly protested mostly because Nehru wanted to
chart a friendly course for the Sino-Indian ties. This mistake for not actively condemning and seeking
international assistance to keep the 'buffer zone' alive was called the biggest blunder that led to the
1962 humiliation.
4. Military Dimension
a. Aksai Chin acts as one of the most viable routes into Tibet from mainland china.
b. Any Indian offensive into Tibet will be for no value, as the Indian Air Force as of now, does not have
the strategic reach uptill mainland China. Besides China can easily launch an offensive on India using
Tibet as a launchpad.
c. It has connected Tibet and mainland China with 3 expressways and dedicated fuel pipeline and
even high speed railways. It has even upgraded all its runways and equipped them to handle military
heavy-lifters.
d. Most of the problems Chinese troops face in Tibet is linked to weather and altitude.
5. Economic Dimension
a. Tibet has a huge reserve of natural gas and oil.
b. It has the largest reserves of Uranium in the world.
c. It has hydroelectric power in abundance as it is the source of many perennial rivers like
Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Mekong etc.
6. Human Rights Dimension
a. Large scale persecution of Tibetans and loyal followers of Dalai Lama. This was a result of the
'Strike-Hard campaign' of the Communist Party of China.
b. Subversion of Tibetan language and culture and gradual assimilation of the ethnic Tibetans into the
Chinese fold.
c. Large scale mobilization of Han Chinese into Tibet and preferential treatment of Hans in Tibet like
more payment for the same work, appointment to influential posts etc.
7. China and Nepal
a. An accord was signed between the Chinese and King Gyanendra in 2002 which stated that Nepal
will not be allowed to be used for Anti-China activities.
b. In 2005, China forced Nepal to close the Tibetan Refugee Welfare office.
c. Nepal also began lobbying for grant of observer status to China in SAARC.
8. Environmental Warfare
a. China can easily resort to environmental warfare as it controls the flow of major rivers that are in the
trans-Himalayan area and can cause flooding in lower himalayas and the Indo-Gangetic plains.
b. Recently news of a 'lake burst' in Tibet that threatened an environmental catastrophe in Himachal
has led to the suspicion that it might be an experiment in environmental warfare.
9. China is not willing to accept the McMohan line in Arunachal Pradesh as the international border
since it would weaken its claim over Tibet(because the Sino-British agreement that Tibet was not an
integral part of China but merely was under suzerainty of China would get wind). And on the western
front, Aksai Chin is all to important for China strategically to give it up to India.
10. In 2003, Atal Behari Vajpayee accepted that Tibet is a part of China. In 2005, China laid claim to
Arunachal Pradesh and called it 'South Tibet'. The current govt made its stand ambiguous but at the
same time committed a diplomatic blunder by calling in the joint press statement that it thanked the
Chinese and 'Tibetan Autonomous Region' govts for the support to the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra.
Henry Kissinger's World Order
1. Until the arrival of the modern western world, no language of asia had a word for 'Asia'. This

essentially suggests two things

a. Asia is a western construct.
b. Asia is far more heterogeneous than the west.
c. No history of a shared history, no equivalent of a Roman or a Napoleanic empire.
2. Chinese history says that for over a thousand years China considered itself the center of the earth
and its emperor was the ruler of 'All under heaven'. All other people were allowed to pay homage to the
king in a variety of rituals but were not granted a chance to shape the world order. From this flows the
Chinese tendency where they see the world order in hierarchical rather than balance of power of
terms.
3. American foreign policy drew basically from two strands - one initiated by Theodore Roosevelt who
advocates hardcore realism and the other from Woodrow Wilson the idealist who wanted the rest of
the world to embrace US democratic ideals too. Kissinger says that whenever US has evoked
Woodrow Wilson and resorted to idealism, it has failed(because it led to frustration and abrupt
withdrawl such as in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan but Idealism enjoyed its big paydays too in the
form of US invasion of Europe and Japan where the motive was to restore peace and democratic
ideals). In this modern world, the only approach that yields result is the Roosevelt style realism.
4. Kissinger argues that the world order should driven by balance of power rather than a hegemonic
power enforcing its will on other nations.
India-US Counter-Terrorism Cooperation
1. India's cross border terrorism cooperation was called an India-Pak problem in the 80s. After 9/11
that changed.
2. After 9/11 and between 26/11 people believed that India and US could cooperate on
counter-terrorism and even offered its military bases for Afghan invasion.
3. After parliament attack, US forced Pak to reign in terror. After 26/11 also, govt did not act because it
was convinced that US would be able to reign in Pak.
4. Post US withdrawal from Afghanistan, US will cut funding to Pak and lose clout in the region and
then there will not be any US to tame Pak. India will be left to fend itself all alone.
5. India believes that secular and non-theocratic states are best antidotes to terrorism. In contrast, US
has no problems engaging with non-secular and autocratic regimes.
6. Specific examples of not supporting Syria and Iran but backing Saudi Arabia and involving Pak in
talking to Mullah Omar and bringing Taliban to the table is an example of US's duplicity.
7. Yuddh Abhyas
Currency Wars
1. Competitive depreciation of currency against USD
2. South Korea's Won and Japanese Yen into Currency war as Hyudai and Samsung of S.Korea and
Sony and Toyota of Japan shared the same market space, so they wanted to make their exports more
competitive
3. Even European countries want to indulge in Quantitative Easing, and if that happens emerging
markets bound to suffer
4. Once a currency war starts its a race to a bottom and can quickly trigger a global economic crisis
because it ends up exporting deflation to other countries(even those which are out of currency wars)
5. If China is to restart the growth engine, it will have to resort to quantitative easing which could affect
India
Pivot to Asia
1. Rebalancing effort of USA by moving the focus from Middle-East to the Asia Pacific region( and
specifically South-East Asia).
2. The underlying thought is that the 21st century would be Asia's century and if the US is to stay
relevant - a pivot to Asia is required.
3. Includes military as well as trade and economic component(more trade with ASEAN).

4. Could be seen as a defence measure for Taiwan and other countries surrounding the South China
Sea.
5. India critical as it is the bridge between Middle East and South-East Asia.
6. The Look-East policy of India can be integrated with US's rebalancing the Pivot to Asia.
7. China suspicious and calls any activity of US in the South China sea(under the pretext of Pivot to
Asia) as an interference to internal affairs.
8. The Chinese are convinced that India will not move to the US camp because India's FP's grand
narrative is built around strategic autonomy.
India-China Strategic Affairs
1. India became the first non-communist country in January 1950 to accord recognition to communist
China.
2. Sardar Patel foresaw this and warned of a 'two front situation' upon the disappearance of Tibet. But
the people who had championed Satyagraha fell in love with a foreign ideology which travelled from
Russia to China with the murder of 5 million people!
3. Declassified documents even show that in the very early days of independence Nehru wanted to
disband the army and argued for only a small police force. The suspicion was mostly because of an
unfouded fear that the Army could take over India which of course proved suicidal as seen in 1962.
4. If the 1948 war were decisive and the army had pushed back the invaders, 5000 sq km of territory
wouldn't have been handed over to the Chinese today, no Karakoram highway would have been
possible today and of course no land link to Middle East would have been viable today.
5. Xi Jinping is committed to solving the boundary problem at an early date and the Chinese said this
in as many word in the joint presser. It was one of the strongest statements in recent years especially
when LAC is a flexible boundary.
6. In the Modi-Jinping summit there was almost no discussion on Maritime Silk Route(they being
appreciative of our concerns). While coming to India, Xi came via Maldives and SLanka drumming up
support for MSR and these countries happily obliging.
India-Norway Climate Change
1. India's Arctic research station - Himadri, is located in Svalbard in Norway.
2. Researchers have concluded that polar ice melting can have adverse impact on monsoons in the
Indian subcontinent that is why Norway giving all the logistical help it can to India.
3. Norway actively supported India in its bid to get an observer status in Arctic.
4. Active cooperation between National Center for Antarctica and Ocean Research and Norwegian
Polar Institute.
5. Due melting of polar ice caps, new sea routes have opened in Arctic from Europe and Asia. India is
playing an active role in management of sea traffic.
6. India endowed with warm water ports and Norway has cold water ports, so significant exchange of
operational experience can happen. Also India is building Norwegian ships in its docks.
7. India espouses equitable and sustainable distribution of Arctic resources the same as Norway.
Iran Nuclear Deal and India
1. Negotiated between Iran and P5 + 1.
2. Iran will halt enrichment above 5%. 5% enrichment is required for nuclear power, 90% for nuclear
weapon.
3. No additional centrifuges.
4. Provide daily access to IAEA inspectors at nuclear plants.
5. A limit has been put to the amount of Uranium Iran can stockpile.
6. Iran and P5 + 1 will form a joint commission which will work with IAEA and address any issues that
may arise.
7. India voted against Iran at the 2005 IAEA vote where India is at the board of governors.
8. India continues to staunchly oppose Iran's nuclear program.

9. Iran on the other hand has linked India's energy ties with Iran to our refusal to support it in the
Nuclear program. This has pushed India even further away from Iran as it has looked to diversify its
energy resources.
China in Latin America
1. China lent $10 Bn to Brazilian oil company in 2009. Also built a cellphone factory in Venezuela.
2. China signed a $10 Bn deal to construct a railroad in Argentina in 2010.
3. Last year Ecuador leased almost a third of their rain-forests to China for mining.
4. Nicargua Canal - $40Bn project, severe environmental constraints. Political significance - the US
built Panama Canal. This one is longer, deeper and wider than Panama Canal.
India and Vietnam
1. Cooperation in providing yarn(raw material) to Vietnam's booming textile industry.
2. Provide for Vietnamese tourism as their no.1 visitors - China has dropped of the charts as there
were anti-Chinese riots in Vietnam.
3. Militarily India has overhauled Vietnam's MiG fleet and now looking to train its navy's entire
submarine. India should sell military equipment to Vietnam.
India - Bangladeshi Migrant Issue
1. In 1983, Illegal Migrant Determination Tribunal was established to identify and deport Illegal
Migrants. But from in 25 years of functioning, it could only deport 10000 illegal migrants. The SC
scrapped the law in 2005.
2. SC ordered that the Foreigners Act 1946 be enforced throughout India and illegal migrants be
deported. Yet this was also problematic. In 2003, Home Minister LK Advani ordered all stated to deport
illegal immigrants and 265 people were selected to be deported but Bangladesh declined to accept
them. BSF and Bangladesh Border Guards even came to the point of violence over the issue.
3. Often Bangladeshis that migrated towards Assam in 1947 were Indians, yet they are the ones that
face the maximum amount of brunt for it.
4. Even Bangladesh loses millions of dollars each year as a major share of remittance these people
send back home is through illegal channels.
5. India could do few things:
a. Issue short term work visas to Bangladeshis who are ready to even partake hazardous work
b. Make it tit for tat with Bangladesh - we'll ratify the Teesta treaty or the Land Swap Agreement if they
agree to cooperate with India in taking back Bangladeshi immigrants
c. Give them some kind of economic assistance package to resettle these immigrants
6. Bangladeshis simply deny that any illegal migration takes place.
Pakistan-Iran and Baluchistan
1. Ethnic Baloch's are spread into Pak, Iran and Afghanistan. They are ethnic Sunni people.
2. Shia and Sunnis had to remain united as together they were in minority in S.Asia.
3. In 1977, Zia-ul-Haq overthrew civilian govt and took to Sunnization of Pakistan and on the other
hand in 1979, Iran became a Shia state after the Islamic Revolution.
4. Baloch terror outfits - Jundallah and Jaish-ul-Adl are repeatedly targeting Iran's border districts and
Iran is accusing Pakistan and Saudi Arabia of funding and motivating them to cause trouble.
Al-Qaeda in South Asia
1. After 9/11, all the Arabic Jehadi group focused their attention towards the west and left India to the
Paki jehadis. Al-Zawahiri wants all the Muslim Ummah to unite and wage Jehad to reinvigorate the
Caliphate in India.
2. The radical Muslim youth are gravitating towards any organization that can produce more violence.
3. Abu Bakr al Baghdadi and Al Zarqawi were sent to Iraq from Afghanistan and held the Iraqi front

under the banner - Al-Qaeda in Iraq and later renamed it to ISIS. OBL had a disagreement with al
Zarqawi on how to implement Jihad.
4. ISIS have stopped calling Al-Baghdadi as Khalifa but are calling him Amir-ul-Muslimeen(the Amir of
all Muslims implying that all muslims must pledge allegiance to him)
5. The crux of the matter is that the center of gravity of the 'Ummah' is not South Asia. It is the Middle
East and that is where the struggle for supremacy will be waged.
6. Despite the outfit being AQSA, there is no leader from India. This is probably because the Jehadi
enterprise is HQed in Pak and hence all the leaders are Paki.
7. In Pak, Op Zarb-e-Azb has been launched against the TTP but they are very much mollycoddling
with the India specific groups - JeM, LeT, Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, Harkat-ul-Mujahideen etc
8. De-Radicalization of Islam is a fashionable concept of the West but in India, Hindus and Muslims
have lived side-by-side for 1000 years. West style Secularism and west style 'De-Radicalization' are
both bad for India.
Irael - Gaza Conflict
1. Hamas won the Gaza elections in 2006 but refused to step down and a war ensued between Hamas
and Fatah(a more moderate outfit) in 2007. Since then thrice Israel has gone to war with Hamas.
Fatah still controls West Bank and it is moderate as it is dependant on international help. Today Fatah
and Hamas are closer than ever before.
2. Benjamin Netanyahu is a right wing politician and has a history of taking a hawkish stance against
Palestine. He even ordered the redrawing of Isralei map sans Palestine.
3. Israel uses a particular similie in their strategic literature as a substitute for saying that you explicitly
kill people - 'You cannot get rid of the grass but whenever it grows, you mow it down'. Palestinian
people have leart the art of survival and thus whenever Israel chooses the military option, it has led to
naught.
4. Thrice a conflict in the past decade has happened - 2006, 2008-09, 2012 and now in 2014 but have
not concluded any of these conflicts with peace treaties.
5. But there are some experts suggest that whenever there is a conflict between Israel and the
Palestinian people, it makes Israel concede more to the Palestinian people and marks the urgency of a
peace process.
Brics Bank
1. $50Bn - Initial Capital; $100Bn - Contingent Reserve Arrangement(Currency pool to help fledgeling
economies)
2. Who will it lend to? S.America not much borrowing right now. Africa borrowing capacity extremely
limited.
3. Brics bank will be lending in the borrowers local currency than in USD. This will protect them from
exchange risks(and take the risk itself and is susceptible to losing money in the long run) and make
borrowing from NDB an inviting affair.
4. One of the arguments given in favor of the NDB is that if there is a financial crisis for the rest of the
world from the Western Financial Institutions, the hope is that NDB will be able to isolate these
countries from these crisis. But that seems highly unlikely.
5. An NDB is not an aid institution but what sets it apart is that it draws upon the collective wisdom of
the experience of the BRICS members of their own development.
6. The CRA which is $100 Bn is enough to begin with. World Bank etc have built their reserves over 50
years and the NDB will also take a similar amount of time to stabilize itself. Secondly, international
govts backed banks are mostly immune from financial threats because if there were a financial crisis,
India and China are strong enough to bail the bank out.
7. The operating modalities of this arrangement are still to be worked out. But a lot will depend on the
kind of ties BRICS want to keep with IMF. For eg. the Chiang Mai initiative of ASEAN requires an
assent of the IMF if you are to withdraw more than 30% of the funds. Also, the Inter-American
Development Fund doesn't need the consent of the IMF.

8. Since China is contributing almost $41 Bn out of the $100 Bn, many people are suggesting that this
Bank will give them a neutral route to investing in Africa and elsewhere and hence could escape the
allegations of Chinese Colonialism.
9. Western commentators have been quick to pour cold water over the initiative citing these countries
have nothing in common. The same can be said about the UN, IMF, NATO etc. Countries come
together not because they are ideologically aligned but because they share a common (strategic)
interest in aligning
Afghanistan Elections Rigged
1. Abdullah Abdullah was trained under Ahmad Shah Massoud and has a streak of independence.
Ashraf Ghani is a more suitable candidate wrt the west.
2. Pashtuns are about 40-45% but the Tajiks are about 30-35% of the total population and did most of
the fighting against Taliban. The Tajiks feel cheated as they were discriminated against for the last 200
years are beyond.
3. During recounting 8000 poll stations were selected. Their selection was also a cause of concern.
4. Abdullah Abdullah could have formed his own govt in North Afghanistan. But he refused as it could
break Pakistan apart.
India's Water Dispute with Pakistan
1. The Indus Water Treaty of 1960 was signed between Pakistan and India in 1960 between JL Nehru
and Ayub Khan.
2. It is regarded as one of the most successful water sharing endeavours in the world today. India has
not revoked it even during war time.
3. Since 2010, Pakistan is trying to project water as a new core issue.
4. Under the treaty, India generously gives almost 80% of the water to Pakistan and that too
indefinitely.
5. According to the Indus Water Treaty the western rivers would be under the jurisdiction of India and
the Eastern ones under Pak.
6. Taking this into provision under consideration, the International Court of Arbitration ruled in India's
favor in the Kishanganga Dam dispute and said that India could divert minimal and optimal amount of
water for non-consumptive purposes.
7. Since Kashmir is out of fashion for the international community, the pakistanis now want to include
the water related issues in the composite dialogue for apparantly no rhyme and reason. This could be
the latest ploy to gain international sympathy.
8. Pakistan inherited an excellent irrigation system from the British but the lack management and the
deposition of silt has caused a considerable fall in its water carrying capacity.
9. In agreement with the policy stated above, Pakistan has also started expressing dissatisfaction
about the Indus Water Commission on both sides and now even wants a renegotiation of the Indus
Water Treaty.
Nepal's Federal Structure and the geopolitics
1. First Constitution Assembly(CA) constituted in 2007 failed in its mission and hence the second CA
was elected in 2013. The Second CA is to constitute the constitution by January 22, 2015. But it seems
unlikely now.
2. India and China want 3 things from Nepal:
a. Fewer provinces on the border areas of their respective boundaries, so that they can have less
problem dealing with fewer authorities
b. A strong center and a weaker provinces so that easier to deal with the country as a whole
c. Not go for ethnicity based federalism as this could create tensions in the country
3. China is additionally concerned about the border provinces that could cause problems in Tibet
4. India is additionally concerned about the Madhesi-Terai region that has huge cultural similarity with
Bihar and Purvanchal and India wants to restrict the number of authorities in the MT region to deal with

5. Additional points of disagreement:

a. Ruling party is pressing for resolving these issues with voting while the opposition wants consensus
b. Ruling party wants ethnic based provinces, the opposition however wants a single ethnic Nepal
6. It is being said that Nepal must go for consultation with India and China and take their concerns on
board but the problem is that it could put question marks on Nepal's sovereignty which it has come to
value so much.
7. PM Modi must ensure that Nepali nationalism is not reduced to anti-Indianism.
Japan's Constitution Reinterpretation
1. Japan has reinterpreted Article 9 of its constitution. It is to send its troops overseas to protect its
interests. But this is not the first time Japan has done that. Japan reacts like this whenever there is a
change in the external geostrategic environment. It is a very strange article as at one hand it makes
Japan a pacifist power and on the other hand it makes them enter into a military alliance with the
Americans.
2. Only 13 hours of discussion was done to arrive at this reinterpretation and that too the discussion
was internal to the party. And with the lack of consensus there seems to be a good proportion of
people opposed to this.
3. But only the constitution is being reinterpreted but laws will need to be modified too - for example the
Self Defense law, Coast Guard Lawetc.
4. The excuse to fiddle with the 'Doctrine of Collective Defence' is always the threat from North Korea
but the Chinese is the real reason.
5. The Yasukuni Shrine for war crimes visited by Shinzo Abe and this irked China and Korea. And there
are already indications that China and Korea are re-approaching each other and the Japanese are
re-approaching North Koreans.
India-Bangladesh Issues
1. Water is a state issue and thats why WB State govt objecting to water sharing agreement. Although
technically water is being shared in the same proportion as of now, as it would be after the Teesta
water sharing agreement. There are no water sharing agreements between WB and Sikkim and thus
even Sikkim must also be brought on board as there are multiple run of the river hydropwer projects on
Teesta in Sikkim. The Ganga agreement was led by Jyoti Basu.
2. If we talk about BBIN(B'Desh, Bhutan, India and Nepal) and BCIM groupings, bilateral issues get
melted anyway.
Ukraine crisis and Crimea Annexation
1. Looks like a fight for the Black Sea. If US can pull Ukraine and Georgia to its side, Black Sea
becomes an American Lake. After the annexation of Crimea, Black sea naval port is being controlled
by Moscow directly - the Russian equivalent to a Union Territory.
2. Ukraine is mineral rich but is not an important issue. It seems more like a tussle between Ukraine's
post Soviet identity and its exceptional of a European identity. Ukrainian president wanted to have a
gas pipeline with Russia, people resented and wanted to have more relations with Western Europe
instead. The Ukrainian president - Victor Yanukovych had to flee to Russia and finally Petro
Poroshenko - considered close to the West was elected.
3. In the post-Soviet era Russia became the inheritor of the Soviet legacy - only nuclear weapon state,
only permanent member of UNSC etc. This created a lot of resentment among the other new
countries.
4. In February, there was a leaked conversation between US asst secretary of state and the US
ambassador in Kiev between who could be presidents of Ukraine and one of those candidates actually
ended up being the Ukrainian PM. From the Russian side there have been masked men in Crimea
found speaking crisp Russian. So there are clear cut signs of external interference.
5. Whats our stake in all this - the more the West squeezes the Russians the more they'll lean on
China.

6. Germany is going to play a very critical role as a mediator between the Russians and the Americans.
They are part of the NATO and also working with the Russians on a pipeline which would bypass the
Ukraine in entirety - in a nutshell, they are the pivot between the East and the West. A few months ago
there were reports in the WSJ that Deutschebank, Volkswagon etc were asking Angela Merkel that if
further sanctions are approved against Russia then that is going to hurt German business interests
and the German economy.
7. Russian minorities are shabbily treated throughout EU and in Ukraine especially Russian language
was not given constitutional status(also in some parts they have banned the usage of Russian
language altogether). So it is indeed a sensitive topic in Russia.
8. The US is already working on Moldova and Georgia relentlessly. In-fact when the protests were
going on, the presidents of these two countries were in Washington meeting President Obama.
9. Crimea has 60% ethnic Russian population and the official narrative of Russia is that President
Putin has accepted the request of the residents of Crimea to incorporate it into Crimea. Strategically,
Crimea houses the Russian Black Sea fleet and would give it access to the warm waters of the
Mediterranean Sea. In fact to put it bluntly, Russia without black sea would seize to exist for all
practical purposes.
10. There are 2 more strategic reasons - a. There is an old Soviet Era military industrial complex which
has critical facilities in Ukraine. If Ukraine goes with NATO, Russia's defense R&D facilities would get
significantly degraded. b. Russia and Ukraine do not have a proper international border. If there is
hostility in Ukraine, it could have a ripple effect on Russia.
11. Historically Crimea was always a part of the Soviet Union and was transferred to Ukraine in 1954
on a long lease.
12. Eastern Ukraine houses ethnic Russian populations and there are disturbing reports that Ukraine
has been incessantly shelling these areas on the pretext of 'fight against Russian invadors'.
13. Belarus and Northern Kazakhstan is also important to Russia but hey are already with them.
14. For example, if there is an anti-India protest in Bhutan and if this is being propped up by say China.
Are we supposed to not do anything? If something hurts are vital interests we act like we did in 1971.
What was our official excuse - Instability in Bangladesh is hurting India.
15. After the Geneva Agreement, there is a consensus between Russia and the West that there wont
be any further discussion on Crimea - in a way the West has reconciled with its annexation by Russia.
So now the focus is on preventing an East Ukraine vs West Ukraine civil war backed by NATO and
Russia respectively. The only solution available, it seems is to divide Ukraine like Czechoslovakia and
let the subsequent parts decide there fate.
16. The economic angle of the whole issue was that the Ukrainians wanted an Eastern Partnership
and subsequent FTA with the rest of the Eastern European countries and thereafter wanted the EU
membership and subsequently at a later stage maybe even NATO membership. But Russia said that if
Ukraine wants to go with the West, its OK, but its special economic relationship with Russia will
collapse.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization
1. The SCO, previously known as the "Shanghai Five," is made up of major and minor players; while
China and Russia are the main attractions, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan sit on
the sidelines, hoping for a spot in China's "Go West" strategy. There is a lot on the agenda to cover,
from China's pipelines to security in Afghanistan. However, one thing is clear: China holds the reins.
2. Perhaps the clearest sign that other SCO states are merely window dressing came earlier this
month when Chinese and Russian troops carried out joint military exercises in the Urals, leaving
everyone else to ask, "Where are the other four members?"
3. The SCO's stated enemies are "terrorism, separatism and extremism," known collectively as the
"Three Evils. Under the broad stroke of "Counter-terrorism," the group's official line on security has
been called by some a "vehicle for human rights violations." While the rhetoric on human rights from
the SCO is par for the course, in practice the "Three Evils" are a catch-all excuse for domestic
crackdowns.

4. At the Dushanbe summit, the general agreement was that a military political alliance is not desirable.
5. Why India should join?
a. TAPI strategic link
b. Alternative regional platform to discuss the Afghan issue.
c. If Pakistan joins SCO, then we must join- to ensure we can rebutt
d. Indian interest in International North-South Transport Corridor to connect Mumbai with Bandar
Abbas port in Iran(This economic corridor stretches from India to Europe via Iran, Russia and smaller
Central Asian countries). This route is shorter than the existing Suez Canal and the Mediterranean
Sea.
6. Why India shouldn't join?
a. Not much compatibility between Indias security interest vs Chinese security interest. Besides,
under pressure from China, smaller countries will readily block India's proposal.
b. Ethical issue - they use military as a first resort to handle internal security issues; India uses police
as the first resort for situations like anti-Naxal operations.
India's road construction and the Chinese reaction
1. India is constructing a 200 km long road from Changlang district to Tawang district at a cost of
40,000 Cr. Largest infrastructure project in the history of India. Currently all roads connecting East and
West Arunachal are via Itanagar. This project will bypass Itanagar(and in some cases even Assam as
the valleys in Arnachal run North South) and provide direct connectivity.
2. There are already rural roads, PMGSY roads etc. so why object on this one road?
3. In migration of Arunachal people into Tawang and Itanagar and the govt is looking to give these
people jobs and a life there so that they dont need to migrate.
4. Right now Indian soldiers take upto 3 days trek to reach there outposts.
5. Chinese undertake similar projects but they do it silently, swiftly and effectively. For example, from
Lhasa to Shigatse the railway line they built, nobody came to know till the advanced stages and they
declared it afterwards. India needs to take a similar discreet approach.
6. We don't need to militarize these projects. Why is the MHA and MoD involved. Why Ministry of
Surface Transport execute it and take the necessary help from BRO for it.
7. Except for Tawang and the Tawang tract(where the 5th Dalai Lama was born), the rest of Arunachal
is ethnically non-Tibetan. In fact till 2008, Dalai Lama was claiming Tawang and Tawang tract as a part
of Tibet, in 2008 he formally agreed to Tawang being a part of modern State of India.
8. The main contention is that there is a Karakoram in the North and and a Demchok in the East and
the dispute is regarding how to join the two points.
India-Myanmar
1. In the past India's relations with Myanmar were caught between idealism and realism - supporting
democracy but also dealing with the military dictatorship.
2. Geographically it is sandwitched between South Asia and SE Asia, India and ASEAN, India and
China. It is of immense geostrategic importance.
3. People to people contact between India and Myanmar outstanding - North-East Indians in border
areas with Myanmar have avery old and familial ties with the Myanmarese people. Hinduism and
Buddhism have shaped that country. At one point Indians used to control business and educational
institutions in Myanmar. Even today upto 25 lakh Indian-origin people live in Myanmar.
4. Military has always had extensive links with the Burmese military. Even when Laldenga and his
group escaped into Myanmar, the Indian Army's special forces and intelligence agencies operated
there with the tacit consent of the Burmese.
5. Our policy towards Myanmar has been affected by India's policy to contain the influence of China
in SE Asia. We floated the BIMSTEC towards that aim.
6. Economically, Myanmar is the second largest exporter of Dal to India. Also, Tata Motors has put up a
truck assembling plant in Myanmar. So things are picking up slowly. What we need to do is open up
local chapters of FICCI, CII etc in Myanmar, of which none exists today.

7. India does not have any tangible air connectivity with Myanmar. Right now there is just one
Bi-weekly flight between Bodh Gaya and Myanmar. On the other hand, the Eastern China Airlines
operates daily flights from Shanghai to Myanmar.
8. With Myanmar, rather than having an MEA driven approach, we must strive to have an idustry driven
approach.