Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Agenda
Definition
Regulatory Response
Funding
Providers
Capital
market
funding providers
Funding
liquidity risk
22
(liabilities
run-off)
Lenders of last resort central banks
33
securitization
Assets
Structu
ural
(asset
decreasing
liquidity value)
Standing facilities
discount windows
Operational
Market
liquidity risk
liquidity risk
r mgt
Liquidity
risk
Conting
gency
Management of funding
sources
Consequential risk
Follows credit
credit, market
market, operational or reputational crisis
Agenda
Definition
Regulatory Response
7
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Entreprise Risk Management Services Survey, Sep 2008
Asset mix
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60 000
60,000
40,000
20,000
,
0,000
-20,000
-40,000
9
Liquidity Buffers
10
11
Agenda
Definition
Regulatory Response
Regulatory Initiatives
14
Idiosyncratic
9
Market
9
D li iin liliquidity
Decline
idit value
l +d
deteriorating
t i ti ffunding
di conditions
diti
Combination of both
16
Agenda
Definition
Regulatory Response
LR Measurement - components
Cash flow projections
- Intra-day, short, medium
long term
g
- Contractual and contingent
- Retail & wholesale
External sources
- Diversity (Committed lines,
lines
repo facilities, CP programs,
)
- Contingency Funding Plan
Best
Practice
18
known
TIMING
unknown
AMOUNT
unknown
Fix rate loans and
Variation margins
mortgages
t
Options with fixed
Cash/repos/collaterali exercise date
sed lending
(european)
Term deposits
Floating rate loans
and deposits
Fixed coupons from
bonds swaps etc
Travelers cheques
Callable bonds
Flexible amortisation
loans
Revolving
loans/cards
Current accounts
Savings accounts
Investment assets
American options
19
Ratios
Current: Short-Term
Short Term Assets/ ST Liabilities
S
Survival time : time at which cumulative cash flow
<0 (with no rollovers)
20
21
Dynamic Analysis
Scenario analysis
Forward
F
d liquidity
li idit exposure
Counterbalancing capacity
Net Liquid Position
Definition of scenarios!
Modelling Scenarios
Specify supply and demand for liquidity
Risk appetite:
Maturing assets
how low can we go?
Assets for sale/
collateral
Maturing liabilities
Lines in favour
Lines against
Renewed term
Sight funds
f di
funding
New production
Deposit growth
OBS liabilities
and
d stress
t
th parameters
the
t
that
th t affect
ff t their
th i volume
l
23
9
9
9
9
Interbank
Retail
Private
MidCap
Wholesale
Interbank
(long optionality)
Callable
ll bl
Term (CP, CD, MT, LT)
Fiduciary funding
Midcap funding
Intragroup funding
Retail funding
g
Private banking funding
Other unsecured funding
Off-Balance
Call
O/N
Term
Wholesale funding
3
Rights
Interbank funding
9
Illiquid
q
loans
9
Liabilities
On-Balance
Commitments
(short optionality)
All funding
g business
Derivative exposures (CSA)
LR amplified by liquidity call option (on the bank)
Credit facilities
Derivative exposures (margin requirements)
Exogenous to
E
o the
firm
End
dogenous to
o the
firm
26
Assumed Committed
e withdrawal
t da a
Line
D0
D+5
D+10
D+15
D+20
D+25 D+30
Assumed Retail
withdrawal rate
D+35 D+40
Cumulated CF
D0
D+5
D+10
D+15
D+20
D+25 D+30
D+35 D+40
C a e ge :
Challenge
Estimate behavioral and modeled withdrawal rates
by types of client (retail, corporate, bank, fiduciary,)
for each scenario
Legend :
= outstanding undrwan CCL
= outstanding sight dep.
< 0 ECF
(1 - rrD+5) x tDD-15/D+5
tDD-15/D+5
1.
(1 - rrD+25) x tDD+5/D+25
tDD+5/D+25 =
rrD+5 x tDDD-15/D+5
15/D+5
2.
3.
-tDD+5/D+25
-tDD-15/D+5
D-15
D-10
D-5
D0
D+5
D+10
D+15
D+20
D+25 D+30
1.
2.
D 15/D+5
3.
D+35 D+40
Assumed
renewal rate
Challenge :
Estimate the renewal rates per type of client and depending on the type and severity of the event
Allow to change the maturity of the renewals instead of using the initial maturity
29
200.000
150.000
150.000
100.000
100.000
Counterbalancing CF
50.000
50.000
+1day
+1day
+1week
+1month
+3month
Contractual CF
(50.000)
Future Contractual CF
Potential CF
(50.000)
(100.000)
(100.000)
(150.000)
(150.000)
(200.000)
(200.000)
Counterbalancing Capacity
CounterbalancingCapacity
ECBeligibledebtsecurities
BoEeligibledebtsecuirities
Fedeleiibledebtsecurities
DebtsecuritiesS&Prating[A;AAA]
DebtsecuritiesS&Prating<A
Equityassets
Committedlinesinfavorofthebank
Collateralflowsfromrepo/tendertransactio
p
CounterbalancingCapacity
Today
9/17/2008
LV
_ON_
9/18/2008
Marketvalue
20.4
0.7
1.0
32.3
4.3
_ON_
9/18/2008
_ON_
9/18/2008
_ON_
9/18/2008
Haircut
5%
5%
5%
15%
35%
Liquidation
capacity
75%
100%
100%
20%
10%
LV
14.55
0.63
0.95
5.49
0.28
_TN_
9/19/2008
Marketvalue
25.4
0.7
1.2
32.1
5.1
_TN_
9/19/2008
_TN_
9/19/2008
_TN_
9/19/2008
Haircut
5%
5%
5%
15%
35%
Liquidation
capacity
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.20
0.10
LV
18.08
0.63
1.14
5.46
0.33
21.9
25.6
CBC has its own dynamics and better not considered as a stock
Design of scenarios
33
Name-crisis amid
market turmoil
all contracts are legally binding and credit risk assumptions are avoided
no renewall off maturing
i
businesses
b i
counterparties exercise options at the shortest maturity
CBC can generate cash if needed through repo or sale i.e. no contingency
funding doors are closed.
the business franchise is kept at the current level; i.e. maturing cash flows are
replaced by identical anticipated cash flows in a way to keep the overall
amount of assets and liabilities constant
modeled conditional cash flows follow a historical/normal trend
CBC can generate cash if needed through repo or sale; i.e. no contingency
funding doors are closed
as GC, but mimicking the growth/decline behavior of the business franchise
as defined in the yearly business plans
CBC can generate cash if needed through repo or sale; i.e. no contingency
funding doors are closed
the business franchise is affected by the partial loss of funding, the
impossibility of cash flow renewal, the contraction of funding maturities and/or
the expansion of generated credit maturities
modeled conditional cash flows experience severe deviations from
historical/normal trend
CBC: cash generating assets experience significant haircuts and contingency
funding channels can be partially or completely closed
similar to name crisis with intensity of assumptions varying according to how
much the reputation and trust of the institution might be affected
CBC: cash generating assets experience significant haircuts and funding
channels can be partially or completely closed
similar to name crisis with higher intensity
CBC: cash generating assets experience significant haircuts and funding
channels can be partially or completely closed
Source: Onorato, M. (2007) Liquidity Risk Management: Assessing and Planning for Adverse Events.
Algorithmics Withe Papers.
Survival time
15
10
0
O /N
8D
14D
1M
3M
1Y
3Y
6Y
> + 10Y
-5
-1 0
-1 5
-2 0
37
Communication plan
Intra-day LR issues
39
Liquidity Limits
Collateral management
Technology Implications
Data
Analytics
Reporting Tools
Flexibility essential
43
Conclusions
Analysis
A
l i off the
th liquidty
li idt characteristics
h
t i ti off contracts,
t t collateral
ll t l
and funding sources
Enhancement of data stores to reflect thes characteristics
Integration of data sources & systems near time,
consolidated view
Dynamic modelling of the liquidity stock and flow under
different combinations of internal and external risk factors
Software
45
Thank you!
Pieter.de.saeger@finalyse.com