Department of Chemical Engineering

University of California, Santa Barbara

Ch.E. 132C

Winter, 2006

Final Exam
1. (15 points) A small bakery sells two types of pastries, sweet rolls and muffins. The

profit margin is $0.20 for each sweet roll that is sold, and $0.25 for each muffin that is
sold. Past experience has indicated that the daily pastry sales are approximately normally
distributed with the following parameters:
mean
sweet rolls
muffins

150
100

standard deviation
18
10

a. (5 points) What is the expected daily profit for the bakery?

b. (10 points) What is the probability that the profit will be less than 75% of
the expected value?

2. (15 points) In a large population, 4% of the people have a defective gene that can lead to
a disease. A test for the defective gene is 95% accurate in the sense that if a person has
the defective gene, the test is positive 95% of the time. Conversely, if a person does not
have the defective gene, the test is negative 98% of the time. Suppose that a randomly
chosen person tests positive. What is the probability that this person actually has the
defective gene?
3. (15 points) A healthcare product is supposed to contain at least 1.50 g of an active

ingredient. Experience has indicated that the amount of active ingredient is normally
distributed with a standard deviation of 0.1 g. A customer receives a large shipment and
randomly selects nine items. The average amount of active ingredient for this sample is
1.45 g. Should this shipment be rejected, based on = 0.05?

4. (15 points) During normal process operation, 50 pH measurements are made. The mean

value is x = 5.75 and the standard deviation is s = 0.06. Determine the 99% confidence
limits for the population mean, .

2
5. (10 points) In a quality control application, a Shewhart chart is used with 3 control

limits. What is the probability that two out of three consecutive measurements will
exceed the upper control limit?

6. (15 points) Consider an empirical model of the form,

y = 1 ln (x) +
What is the least squares estimate for 1?

7. (15 points)

An experimental design was performed to determine the process

variables that have the most effect on the yield of a batch chemical reactor. Two
process variables were considered, temperature T and batch time t. Experiments were
conducted for two different values of each variable. The results are summarized in
Table 1.
a. (5 points) Which factor is the most important t, T or the interaction
factor, tT? Justify your answer.
b. (10 points) Is factor F significant at the 95% level?

Table 1. Analysis of Variance

Source
Of Variation
t
T
tT
Error
Total

Sum of
Squares
1.33
9.50
4.87
4.12
19.82

Degrees of
Freedom
1
1
1
12
15

THE END

Mean
Square
1.33
9.50
4.87
0.343