KXGM 6302

ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Emission Production

Introduction
There is growing scientic evidence of an increase in green

house gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere since

preindustrial times contributing to rising global temperatures
and to changes in climate patterns.
The primary source of these increased atmospheric GHG

concentrations have come from fossil-fuel burning and other

human activities.
These emissions have continued to increase in recent years.

Introduction
Thus, emission and climate-change mitigation have become an

increasingly important topic for researchers and policymakers.

However, establishing any effective policies and measures to

reduce CO2 emissions from primary sector requires

understanding of trends and factors affecting these emissions.

Emission and Pollutant

Burning fossil fuels and some human activities are release the

emissions such as carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2),

nitrogen oxide (NOx) and carbon monoxide (CO) which can
cause greenhouse gas emission effect, acid rain and other
negative impact to environmental and humankind.
Carbon dioxide (CO2), is a colorless, odorless gas and

produced when any form of carbon is burned in an excess of

oxygen. CO2 is the largest contributor of greenhouse effect out
of all the gasses produce by human activities.

Emission and Pollutant

Sulfur dioxides (SO2) is a colorless gas, from the family of

sulfur oxides (SOx) which is produced in various industrial

processes.
Since coal and petroleum often contain sulfur compounds, their
combustion generates sulfur dioxide.
Carbon monoxide (CO) is a colorless, odorless, poisonous gas.

CO is a product of incomplete burning of hydrocarbon-based

fuels. During normal combustion, each atom of carbon in the
burning fuel joins with two atoms of oxygen forming a harmless
gas.
When there is a lack of oxygen during the combustion of the
fuel, each atom of carbon links up with only one atom of
oxygen forming carbon monoxide gas.

Emission and Pollutant

Nitrogen oxide (NOx) are from nitric oxide (NO) and nitrogen

dioxide (NO2). NO is a colorless, flammable gas with a slight

odor. NO2 is a nonflammable gas with a detectable smell and in
certain concentration will highly toxic, which can cause serious
lung damage in long time . NO2 is plays a major role in the
atmospheric reactions that produce ozone or smog. In the
atmosphere, NO2 will mix with water vapor producing nitric acid
and deposited as acid rain.

Global primary energy consumption

1: British Petroleum, BP Statistical review of world energy. British: BP Plc; 2008

Fossil fuel
The energy consumption is mainly based on fossil fuels which

account for 88.1% whereby with crude oil consisting of 34.8%,

coal 29.2% and natural gas 24.1%.
Power generation which includes both electricity and heat

generation is one of the major sources of CO2 emissions from

fossil-fuel combustion.
The share of power generation in global energy-related CO2

emissions has increased from 36% (8.8Gt CO2) in 1990 to 41%

(11.0Gt CO2) in 2005 and if the current trends continues this
share is projected to increase to 45% (18.7Gt CO2) in 2030
(International Energy Agency).

Global CO2 emission

1: British Petroleum, BP Statistical review of world energy. British: BP Plc; 2008

Global CO2 emission

The major contributor of the greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide

emissions and the trend has been increasing every year.

It is predicted that carbon dioxide emission will increase to 40

billion tons in year 2030 if no effort are thrown in to mitigate it.

It is believed that CO2 emission will continue to climb as long

as fossil fuels remain as the main contributor in the energy mix.

Primary Energy use in Malaysia

Source: NEB, National Energy Balance 2008. Selangor, Malaysia:

Malaysia Energy Centre; 2009.

Primary Energy use in Malaysia

Industrial sector is the major energy consumption with a

record of 19.1Mtoe and followed closely by transportation

sector which is mostly powered by petroleum products.
The future energy demand expected to grow at an annual

growth rate of 57.9% for the next 20 years

Thus, energy security is becoming a serious issue as

fossil fuels are non-renewable energy and will deplete

eventually in near future.

Case study- Electricity emission

Introduction
The electricity generation is one of the main contributors for

emission in the country.

A conventional power stations burn fossil fuels to produce
electricity. Burning fossil fuels is releases the emissions such
as carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide
(NOx) and carbon monoxide (CO) which cause greenhouse gas
emission effect, acid rain and other negative impact to
environmental.
Thus, the objective of this case study is to predict the emission
pattern of the electricity generation.

Survey data
Table 1.1
Electricity generation data in Malaysia

Year

Total
(GWh)

1970

2175

1980

7912

1990

19 469

1991

21 442

1997

49 080

2000

52 300

2010

105 762

2020

195 253

Source: Economic Planning Unit. Study on energy policy analysis and

planning to the year 2020. Prime Minister Department, Kuala Lumpur,
Malaysia.

Survey data
Table 1.2
Percentage of electricity generation based on fuel types

Year

Coal
(%)

Petroleum
(%)

Gas
(%)

Hydro
(%)

2000

15.00

5.00

70.00

10.00

2010

18.00

2.00

50.00

30.00

2020

29.00

1.00

40.00

30.00

Source: Department of Electricity & Gas Supply. Statistics of electricity

supply industry in Malaysia. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Survey data
Table 1.3
CO2, SO2, NOx and CO emission from fossil fuel for a unit electricity generation
Fuels

Emission (kg/kWh)
CO2

SO2

NOx

CO

Coal

1.18

0.0139

0.0052

0.0002

Petroleum

0.85

0.0164

0.0025

0.0002

Gas

0.53

0.0005

0.0009

0.0005

Hydro

0.00

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

Other

0.00

0.0000

0.0000

0.0000

Source: Jaafar MZ, Yusop YM. Malaysian energy sector and current energy
supply and demand forecasting, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Methodology
Schwartz states that scenarios are tools for ordering perceptions

about alternative future environments and the end result might not
be an accurate picture of tomorrow, but can give a better decision
about the future.
This analysis is generally based on modeling methodologies to

figure out the potential emissions from electricity generation in the

future.
The electricity pattern and percentage type of fuel use for

electricity generation should be identified. Some of the data are

already available but others have to be calculated with respect to
the country electricity consumption trend.

Methodology
The method used to estimate the rest of the calculation data is

polynomial curve fitting.

The method is an attempt to describe the relationship between

variable x as the function of available data and a response y.

Which seeks to find some smooth curve that best fit the data,
but does not necessarily pass through any data points.
Mathematically, a polynomial of order k in x is expressed in the

following form:

Methodology
The pattern of potential emission production is depend on the

fuel use for the electricity generation. The common emissions

are consisting CO2, SO2, NOx and CO.
Thus, emission pattern of the electricity generation can be

calculated by the following equation:

Data Analysis
Based on the data shown in Table 1.1, using Eq. (1), the total

energy consumption from year 2002 to year 2020 can be

predicted by the following equation:

Based on the data shown in Table 1.2, using Eq. (1), the fuel mix of

electricity generation from the year 2002 to 2020 can be predicted.

The percentage of coal used for electricity generation can be
predicted by the following equation:

Data Analysis
The percentage of petroleum used for electricity generation can be

predicted by the following equation:

The percentage of gas uses of electricity generation can be predicted

by the following equation:

The percentage of hydropower uses of electricity generation can be

predicted by the following equation:

Data Analysis
The predicted results data based on Equations (3) - (7)

are tabulated in Table 1.4 and Figure1.1

Year

Total
(GWh)

Coal
(%)

2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

66159
71368
76779
82390
88203
94217
100433
106850
113468
120287
127308
134530
141954
149578
157404
165431
173660
182090
190721

14.96
15.06
15.24
15.50
15.84
16.26
16.76
17.34
18.00
18.74
19.56
20.46
21.44
22.50
23.64
24.86
26.16
27.54
29.00

Petroleu
m
(%)
4.24
3.89
3.56
3.25
2.96
2.69
2.44
2.21
2.00
1.81
1.64
1.49
1.36
1.25
1.16
1.09
1.04
1.01
1.00

Gas
(%)

Hydro
(%)

65.20
62.95
60.80
58.75
56.80
54.95
53.20
51.55
50.00
48.55
47.20
45.95
44.80
43.75
42.80
41.95
41.20
40.55
40.00

15.60
18.10
20.40
22.50
24.40
26.10
27.60
28.90
30.00
30.90
31.60
32.10
32.40
32.50
32.40
32.10
31.60
30.90
30.00

Table 1.4
Predicted electricity consumption and
percentage fuel mix of electricity
generation

Fig 1.1. Predicted electricity consumption and percentage fuel mix for
electricity generation
100%
90%
80%
70%

Hydro

60%

Gas

50%

Petroleum

40%

Coal

30%
20%
10%

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

0%

Results
The pattern of emissions is a function of the total energy

consumption multiplied by the percentage of fuel mix and the

amount of emissions by the fossil fuel from every unit of
electricity generation.

Results
Table 1.5
Potential emissions production by electricity generation
Year
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020

Emissions production (Ton)

CO2

SO2

NO2

CO

36 925 190
38 853 310
40 871 919
42 999 341
45 258 018
47 670 787
50 263 503
53 062 992
56 098 579
59 401 570
63 005 748
66 945 895
71 259 772
75 985 624
81 165 687
86 842 673
93 062 310
99 871 266
107 318 707

205 146
217 390
230 813
245 625
262 069
280 395
300 877
323 804
349 481
378 236
410 416
446 377
486 505
531 189
580 852
635 925
696 863
764 132
838 219

97 301
103 264
109 693
116 664
124 267
132 593
141 743
151 821
162 940
175 220
188 788
203 775
220 324
238 577
258 690
280 822
305 141
331 819
361 035

24 108
25 168
26 228
27 292
28 366
29 457
30 572
31 718
32 906
34 143
35 443
36 814
38 271
39 825
41 492
43 285
45 221
47 316
49 587

Conclusion
The emissions from electricity generation contributed the

largest emission to the country.

The study also shows that emissions pattern from electricity

generation of fossil fuel to renewable fuel such as hydropower

offers a solution and multiple benefits to utility, society and
most important for the environment protection.
Government intervention to reduce these emissions is urgently

needed at the present.

The data from the study can be a basis for calculating cost

benefit analysis for implementation of new renewable sources

for electricity generation and emission mitigation program.

Appendix
Notation