Professional Documents
Culture Documents
by
Peter Tuckel
Department of Sociology
Hunter College
ptuckel@hunter.cuny.edu
William Milczarski
Department of Urban Affairs & Planning
Hunter College
wmilczar@hunter.cuny.edu
July 2012
Population Shifts and Implications for Walking in the United States by Tuckel and Milczarski
July 2012
Population Shifts and Implications for Walking in the United States by Tuckel and Milczarski
July 2012
Population Shifts and Implications for Walking in the United States by Tuckel and Milczarski
July 2012
lighting, and having stores in close proximity to their residences. New York City,
to take one example, is now in the process of installing countdown clocks at more
than 400 busy intersections to make streets safer for seniors as well as
introducing a host of other pedestrian friendly initiatives.5
The Different Transportation Priorities of Young People
A second demographic shift which has implications for walking is the entry into
adulthood by members of Generation Y (those born between 1980 and 1999).
This generation has a different set of priorities pertaining to transportation than
other age cohorts, according to a recently released report by the Frontier Group
and U.S. PIRG.6
Since the end of World War II until the beginning of this century, the number of
vehicle miles driven in the United States increased steadily. During the last
several years, however, this six decades-old trend has changed course.7 In 2011,
for example, Americans drove 6 percent fewer miles than they did in 2004. What
is surprising is that this trend away from driving has been particularly pronounced
among members of Generation Y. The annual number of miles driven per
capita by members of this cohort declined from 10,300 to 7,900 during the years
from 2001 to 2009. This represents a 23 percent drop. There has also been a
corresponding drop in the number of drivers licenses among young people.
According to figures gathered by the University of Michigan, only two thirds of
those 18 years of age possessed a drivers license in 2008 compared to 80 percent
who had a drivers license in 1983.8
The report by the Frontier Group and U.S. PIRG offers several explanations for this
marked decline in driving among young people.9 First, the cost of owning a car
and higher gas prices have imposed a disproportionate burden on young people
because of underemployment, unemployment, or credit-card debt to pay off
college expenses. Yet even among younger adults who are from more affluent
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Population Shifts and Implications for Walking in the United States by Tuckel and Milczarski
July 2012
Population Shifts and Implications for Walking in the United States by Tuckel and Milczarski
July 2012
Population Shifts and Implications for Walking in the United States by Tuckel and Milczarski
July 2012
Now, according to the latest census figures, it is the cities which are outstripping
the suburbs in population growth. The most recent census data show that
between the period July 2010 and July 2011, in 27 of the 51 largest metropolitan
areas in the country, city centers grew at a faster rate than their suburbs.16 The
resurging growth of metropolitan areas means, of course, that fewer people will
be relying on driving and more will be using alternative forms of transportation
such as public transportation, walking, and biking.
Why are the cities outstripping the suburbs in population growth? One reason for
this, of course, is the drying up of the credit market has prevented people from
buying a house in the suburbs. Another reason is the persistently high price of
gasoline (which is unlikely to revert to the good old days of under $3.00 a gallon),
which is giving pause to people who might otherwise consider moving to the
suburbs. Yet it is not just these economic factors which are responsible for the
demographic trend favoring the cities. Quality-of-life issues are also playing a
significant role.17 Simply put, the cities have become more attractive places in
which to live. Over the last few decades, crime rates have plummeted in many
U.S. cities. As a result, downtown areas once filled with boarded up buildings
defaced with graffiti again have become vibrant urban centers. So too the urban
landscape dotted with air-polluting factory smokestacks has changed its contours
as service-oriented businesses have replaced large-sized factories in the cities.
And, of course, the cities provide many cultural and entertainment attractions not
found in the suburbs and the convenience of having stores, offices, schools, and
places of residence in close proximity to one another. As noted in one
journalistic account explaining the reasons why one couple opted for living in the
city versus the suburbs: They can walk to public transportation, grocery stores
and parks, all while avoiding suburban gridlock. 18
Reflecting these demographic trends is the sharp reversal in the value of real
estate in well-to-do outlying suburbs. Up until the recent past, housing in these
affluent suburbs, in which the only viable means of transportation was the
automobile, commanded the highest prices per square foot. Today, according to
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Population Shifts and Implications for Walking in the United States by Tuckel and Milczarski
July 2012
Population Shifts and Implications for Walking in the United States by Tuckel and Milczarski
July 2012
Notes
Population Shifts and Implications for Walking in the United States by Tuckel and Milczarski
July 2012