Approximately 15,272 warm

temperature records were

broken in March 2012 across
the contiguous United States
Earliest spring since 1900
utilizing phenology network
metrics
Above normal temperatures
were a result of an anomalous
upper level ridge in the Midwest
Understanding synoptic
patterns responsible for early
season warmth are critical for
long term climate predictions

Analyzed 1000-year control run of the Community

Earth System Model (CESM) with a 1x1 resolution
Applied Spring Indices (SI-x) model to each year to
determine the onset of spring
Characterized spring onset by the standard SI-x
metrics of leaf and bloom dates
After applying a standard Pearson correlation and
covariance to the CESM spring onset dates, the
years were ranked and matched in comparison to
March 2012
Sea level pressure (SLP) patterns for the closest
nine matches were analyzed in 15-day time
segments during the peak of each respective years
anomalous warmth period

References
Ault, T. R., G. M. Henebry, K. M. de Beurs, M. D. Schwartz, J. L.
Betancourt, and D. Moore (2013), The False Spring of 2012,
Earliest in North American Record, Eos Trans. AGU, 94(20),
181.
Kay, J. E., Deser, C., Phillips, A., Mai, A., Hannay, C., Strand, G.,
Arblaster, J., Bates, S., Danabasoglu, G., Edwards, J., Holland,
M. Kushner, P., Lamarque, J.-F., Lawrence, D., Lindsay, K.,
Middleton, A., Munoz, E., Neale, R., Oleson, K., Polvani, L.,
and M. Vertenstein (in press), The Community Earth System

SI-x leaf and bloom dates were computed using inputs of

daily minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and latitude
for each CESM simulation year (401-999). The CESM leaf and bloom
climatological averages were further calculated using the average
over the entire period, which correlated closely to the average
SI-x dates from the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature data (BEST)
for the 1880-2010 observations.
Early spring onset years often featured the greatest anomaly
across portions of the Great Lakes and Midwest eastward through
the southern Middle Atlantic region, consistent with the pattern from
March 2012. Later than average leaf and bloom dates were
common across the western United States during these periods.
Closest matches to March 2012 featured spring onset dates
of approximately 30-40 days earlier than normal

Left: CESM Leaf and Bloom Index anomalies

calculated for the closest nine March 2012CESM matches
Right: Mean 15-day SLP heights for the closest
three March 2012-CESM matches for each leaf
and bloom metric

March 2012 featured an anomalous southerly flow in response to a strong

anticyclone over the Great Lakes. H85 temperatures during the peak of the
warm spell reached approximately 10-15C above normal. Upper level heights
increased over the central and eastern United States as a ridge progressed
eastward ahead of a trough over the western United States and eastern Pacific.
Comparing mean SLP heights for 15-day periods during each respective years
warm periods (three closest March 2012-CESM matches), it was found that
lower pressure patterns were predominately found in a region just south of the
Gulf of Alaska and consistent with an upper level trough over the western USA.
Ridging and anticyclonic regimes were noted over eastern and central regions.

Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community

Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of
Internal Climate Variability, Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1
NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate:
National Overview for March 2012, published online April 2012,
retrieved on September 9, 2014 from
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/3/.
Randall Dole et al., 2014: The Making of an Extreme Event:
Putting the Pieces Together. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 427
440 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00069.1

Acknowledgements
1. Ault, Toby, Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric
Sciences, Assistant Professor

Synoptic wavelengths and pressure patterns were

found to be closely similar for CESM years
responsible for early spring onset

Midlatitude weather patterns during these

particular years are likely a result of increased
teleconnection forcing from an anomalous MJO
and PDO

Temporal trends in early spring onset are absent

through the entire CESM run period

Further research and work will continue to

analyze early spring onset years from the CESM
simulation with an expansion to the top fifty closest
matches to March 2012. Synoptic and long wave
weather patterns will be evaluated for their
similarities and predictability

Understanding the frequency and predictability of

these extreme events in a changing climate will be
critical for agricultural industries and energy
markets

Above: March 2012 wind fields at 250 hPa during the the height of the
above normal temperatures across the eastern United States.

Zachary M. Labe | Email: zml5@cornell.edu

Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Cornell University (B.S. Expected 15)

USA National Phenology Network and Dr. Mark D. Schwartz, of the

University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, for use of the original SI-x model
Richard Moore, Cornell University, for assistance in programming and
computing
CESM1(CAM5) Large Ensemble Community Project and
supercomputing resources provided by NSF/CISL/Yellowstone
Further Contact Info.

Poster PDF