Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Table of Contents
Context .................................................................................................................................................... 3
Consultation process ............................................................................................................................... 4
The Migration Programme ...................................................................................................................... 4
The size of the Migration Programme ................................................................................................. 5
The composition of the Migration Programme .................................................................................... 6
Planning the 201516 Migration Programme ...................................................................................... 7
Economic factors and labour market analysis ........................................................................................ 7
Labour market outcome of permanent migrants ................................................................................. 8
Temporary migrants in Australia ............................................................................................................. 8
Transition from temporary to permanent residence ............................................................................ 8
Net impacts of migration ......................................................................................................................... 9
Review of our programmes ................................................................................................................... 11
Skilled Migration Programme review ................................................................................................. 11
Alternative approaches to planning the Migration Programme ......................................................... 11
Conclusion............................................................................................................................................. 11
The Survey ............................................................................................................................................ 12
Attachment A Detailed analysis ......................................................................................................... 13
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Context
Australian immigration policy centres on managed migration, meaning that the government
determines the number and characteristics of people who may enter and stay in Australia.
Migration is managed through both temporary and permanent visa categories, which
together provide a comprehensive range of options for who may enter and stay, and on what
basis.
Skilled migration programmes target high quality migrants who use their skills and attributes
to contribute directly to Australias economic well-being. Family migration programme
addresses an important social objective in enabling Australian residents to reunite with close
family members from overseas. The wider global economic climate, as well as Australias
own economic and social climate, is a crucial consideration when setting the size and
composition of the permanent Migration Programme (the Migration Programme).
Planning the Migration Programme both skilled and family migration is a process that
remains focused on Australias national interest and the longer term benefits of migration.
Key questions include:
How can the department ensure the Migration Programme settings are responsive to
the changing economic environment in Australia and overseas and the future
demand for labour?
How can we ensure migrants make a strong contribution to Australias economic
prosperity?
What key social factors are important to consider when planning the size and
composition of the Migration Programme?
Does the current size and balance of the programme reflect the true economic and
family reunion needs of Australians?
How can the department help states and territories and regions in meeting their skill
needs and other considerations regarding migration?
What considerations are important in planning the Migration Programme with the
increasing number of temporary entrants in Australia?
Can the current approach to planning the Migration Programme be improved?
Temporary migrants are not included in the Migration Programme. Given the growing
number of temporary migrants who subsequently become permanent residents, and the
positive impact they have on Australias economy, temporary migrants are a factor for
consideration when planning the Migration Programme.
Note: Please keep in mind that the resettlement of refugee and humanitarian entrants
is not included in this discussion paper. The size and composition of the
Humanitarian Programme is decided through a separate process.
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Consultation process
We seek your views on the size, balance and composition of the 2015-16 Migration
Programme and the factors taken into consideration in planning Australias future migration
intakes, including longer term indicators.
We hope to stimulate your thoughts around the planning for and management of the
programme to best meet Australias economic and social needs in view of the changing
nature of migration in Australia and overseas.
Your views will be considered in the departments submission to government on the
2015-16 Migration Programme and will inform the size, balance and composition of
Australias future migration intakes.
This discussion paper also includes a link to a survey that seeks your views on the Migration
Programme. We encourage you to take the survey.
feedback from the Australian community and from industry and business
bodies
short and long-term social, demographic and economic trends and
government policies
expected demand for skilled labour in key occupations and industries
(including in regional Australia) over the medium to long term as well as the
identified need to address critical labour force skill shortages that are unable
to be met by the domestic labour market or training schemes
estimated demand for family migration places
social, economic and labour market advice and analysis from other
government agencies including state and territory governments
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This stream helps to address medium term labour market needs through employer
sponsored migration, where migrants come to specific jobs. The long term labour market
needs are addressed through points tested skilled migration that selects migrants based on
their highly skilled attributes to ensure labour market success on their arrival in Australia.
State/territory and regional nominated migration, which is also a points tested skilled
migration, helps the states and territories respond to varying regional and economic needs
through supplementing the labour force in key industries and regions.
Entrepreneurs, investors and innovators are attracted through the Business Innovation and
Investment Programme, and the Distinguished Talent category facilitates migration of
talented individuals to Australia.
More information on the Skill stream is available in Fact Sheet 24 and on SkillSelect at:
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/24overview skilled.htm
http://www.immi.gov.au/skills/skillselect/
The Family stream
The Family stream of the Migration Programme facilitates the reunion of Australian citizens,
permanent residents or eligible New Zealand citizens with their immediate family members
overseas.
The Family stream has four main categories; partner, child, parent and other family. While
the primary focus of the Family stream is the social benefit of a united family, there is strong
evidence that there are wider benefits of family migration including contribution to the
Australian economy through employment and to the population through births. For example,
family migration further improves the age demographics of Australia, through younger
migrants entering the country.
The focus of recent changes to family migration has been on the closest family members
partners and children.
Demand for places in the Family stream continues to be higher than the places available.
More information on the Family stream is available in Fact Sheet 29:
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/29overview family.htm
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offset somewhat by expansion of varying rates in other areas of private demand (RBA).
Overall, growth is expected to be slightly below trend for the next few quarters.
After a subdued labour market since 2011, some forward indicators of employment have
been firming this year. Employment growth has picked up somewhat, increasing by 1.5 per
cent over the year to August1. Workforce participation has improved marginally, after a
period of significant decline, to stand at 65 per cent in August. Nevertheless, there remains
a degree of spare capacity in the labour market and it will probably be some time before
unemployment declines consistently.
According to the Department of Employment, overall employment is projected to increase by
838,100 (7.2 per cent) reaching 12,442,700 by November 2018. Employment is projected to
increase in all industries except manufacturing, mining and agriculture forestry and fishing,
and health care and social assistance is projected to make the largest contribution to this
growth. This structural change may have implications for the department in planning future
skilled migration programmes.
Note that we have used trend estimates as at August 2014 rather than the more commonly cited seasonally adjusted data,
which have shown significant monthly volatility of late and may not therefore provide a reliable indication of recent
developments.
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temporary entrants and their possible implications to future Migration Programmes is crucial
due to the increasing propensity in recent years of temporary entrants to transition to
permanent residence while in Australia.
Over the last decade, there has been considerable growth in the number of temporary
migrants in Australia. Many of these migrants hold work rights and contribute directly to the
Australian labour market, for example, through the temporary 457 programme. While
pathways to permanent residence are available to temporary migrants while in Australia, it is
not an automatic transition and in order to apply for a permanent visa, prospective migrants
are still required to meet prescribed criteria for qualification, skilled work experience and
English language skills.
The proportion of the Migration Programme places filled by people on a temporary visa in
Australia has increased from around 30 per cent in 200405 to 50 per cent in 201314. This
trend is particularly pronounced in the Skill stream where the proportion of onshore grants
has increased from 35 per cent in 200405 to 57 per cent in 201314. Onshore transition to
family visas has also increased during this time, albeit at a slower rate, from 23 per cent in
200405 to 33 per cent in 201314.
The increasing proportion of the Migration Programme filled by people who previously held a
temporary visa in Australia is a positive trend. These people have been living, studying or
working in Australia prior to making an application for permanent residence, and implies that
they should have skills or qualities that make them valuable to us as well as having a
genuine commitment to and understanding of Australian values.
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Conclusion
Australia has a dynamic and growing economy where skills are still needed, where
employment is forecast to grow in most industries, and where unemployment is predicted to
remain fairly static. Australia has a social framework that is global and inclusive, and
increasing numbers of temporary migrants are making informed decisions that Australia is
where they would like to live.
The department is aware of the increasing global competitiveness in attracting and retaining
highly skilled migrants from overseas and the need for a clearer, deregulated skilled
migration visa framework that will help shape and define Australias economic future.
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In planning the size, balance and composition of the 201516 Migration Programme, the
department will need to be informed by careful consideration of these factors and trends as
well as the views of the Australian public to ensure the programme delivers on what it is
intended toresponding to Australias longer-term economic and social needs.
The Survey
The Department invites you to take the Migration
Programme 201516 Survey before
Friday 5 December 2014
Click below to continue to the survey
https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/RYWVBKG
Note that all survey responses will be confidential.
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Note that unless otherwise stated, we have used trend estimates as at August 2014 in this section rather than the more
commonly cited seasonally adjusted data, which have shown significant monthly volatility of late and may not therefore provide
a reliable indication of recent developments.
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Figure 3: Employment growth by industry, cumulative over five years to August 2014
Source: ABS Cat No 6291.0.55.003, E06, original data. *Household services include accommodation and food services,
education and training, health care and social assistance, arts and recreation services and other services. #Business services
includes information media and telecommunications, financial and insurance services, rental hiring and real estate services,
professional, scientific and technical services, and administrative and support services.
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Figure 4: Employment growth by state, cumulative over five years to August 2014
Skill Shortages
The Department of Employment has an ongoing skill shortage research programme
involving consultation with employers and recruitment agents on the labour market for more
than 100 occupations. Results from this research programme are regularly published in the
six monthly report Skill Shortages Australia. The latest report, for 2013-14, was recently
published on the departments website. The main findings are noted as follows:4
Skill shortages are currently not a feature of the Australian labour market. Employers
are generally recruiting skilled workers without marked difficulty and the number of
occupations in shortage is at an historical low.
In 2013-14, there were generally large fields of applicants vying for skilled jobs and
employers filled a high proportion of their vacancies.
There is now little disparity between employers recruitment experiences across the
states and territories due, in part, to the slowing activity in the resources states.
Employers in regional locations still have more difficulty recruiting skilled workers
than those in metropolitan areas, but most fill their vacancies readily, and the gap
has narrowed.
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Shortages are more evident for trades (with 18 in shortage) than professions (5).
While shortages of trades workers have abated in the past few years, this easing has
not been to the same extent as that for professionals.
Vacancy levels have increased more strongly over the past year for technicians and
trades workers than they have for professionals. Vacancies increased by
9.5 per cent for professionals but increased by 17.1 per cent for technicians and
trades workers over the year to June 2014. Nonetheless, employment growth for
professionals continues to outstrip that for technicians and trades workers, rising by
1.1 per cent (or 27,100) over the year to May 2014 compared with an increase of 0.7
per cent (or 12,200) for technicians and trades workers.
A significant proportion of surveyed vacancies remained unfilled and the reasons were
varied.
Many of these vacancies attracted multiple qualified applicants but they did not meet
employers precise requirements.
A number of vacancies attracted applicants who were suitably skilled but employers
opted to defer recruitment until they attracted their ideal candidate.
Some employers and preferred applicants were unable to agree on the terms and
conditions of employment.
Skill Level: While the evolution of the labour market towards higher skilled occupations
looks set to continue, with Skill Level 1 projected to make the largest contribution to
growth (356,900), there is also strong growth in employment projected for Skill Level 4
(225,300) providing lower skilled opportunities for job seekers.
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States and Territories: Employment is projected to increase in all the states and
territories with the largest gains in New South Wales (241,600), Queensland (215,100),
and Victoria (196,300). While employment growth is expected to remain relatively strong
in Western Australia (119,400), it is projected to slow from the rates of the past five
years, given the predicted falls in mining investment.
Skill stream primary applicants achieved good employment outcomes at the six-month
stage of settlement. This included a moderate unemployment rate of 5.7 per cent, a very
high participation rate of 95.6 per cent, high income levels and high rates of employment
in highly-skilled and full-time work. Skill stream primary applicants outperformed the
general population on most of these measures.
Department of Immigration and Border Protection Continuous Survey of Australias Migrants: Cohort 1 ReportAugust 2014,
http://www.immi.gov.au/pub-res/Documents/research/csam-2014-cohort-1.pdf.
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