Sri Lanka's election could change

everything... and nothing

W E D N E S DAY 07 JANUARY 2015

On Thursday, Sri Lanka goes to the polls in an extraordinary presidential
election which could change everything but, perversely, change nothing,
writes Callum Macrae.

Above left: presidential candidate Maithripala Sirisena. Above right:

presidential incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa
The incumbent, President Mahinda Rajapaksa, is engaged in a desperate
fight for his political life in an election which just a few months ago seemed
to be his for the taking.
It should all have been so different. Rajapaksa, previously prime minister of
Sri Lanka, became president in 2005 in an election in which he won just
over 50 per cent of the votes.
But within a couple of years of taking power he embarked on a process
which was conventionally deemed impossible. He set out to militarily defeat
the LTTE, or Tamil Tigers, the rebel force which for the best part of a quarter
of a century had been fighting for an independent homeland for the Tamil
people of the north and east of the island, in a bid to redress decades of
anti-Tamil discrimination.
The Tigers were themselves a brutal force, prepared to use child soldiers
and terror tactics including the suicide bombing of civilian targets.
But few people were ready for what happened next.
Rejecting the terms of a much-broken 2002 peace deal, the government
launched a massive offensive against the Tigers and their de facto state of
Tamil Eelam. By the first few months of 2009, with the Tigers in hopeless
retreat, the government declared a series of what they called "no fire
zones", into which they encouraged as many as 400,000 Tamil civilians to
gather "for their own safety".
Government forces then relentlessly shelled these zones and, as a later UN
report concluded, systematically denied them food and humanitarian
supplies. The UN estimates that there were "as many as 40,000 civilian

deaths in a matter of weeks, most as a result of government shelling. There

was also a World Bank estimate that 100,000 civilians were missing after
the war.
In the last few days, in horrific scenes first exposed by Channel 4 News,
dozens of Tiger prisoners were stripped, blindfolded and executed.
The Sri Lanka evidence: Channel 4 News reports

Sri Lanka execution video:

evidence of war crimes?Sri Lanka execution video: new war crimes claims Sri Lanka
'war crimes' video: who are these men?Sri Lanka 'war crimes' video: woman's body
identifiedSri Lanka: evidence of ongoing repression and abuseThe Sri Lankan

Sri
Lanka: new video evidence of grotesque violations 'I cried every day':
inside Sri Lanka's 'No Fire Zones'
But in the aftermath of what was seen by Sri Lanka's Sinhala majority as an
soldiers 'whose hearts turned to stone'Sri Lanka 'still torturing' Tamils

historic victory, there were few concerns about how the war had ended.
However brutal the war's end and the repression that has followed in the
north of the country, the bitter war was ended and the killing stopped.
What didn't stop, according to multiple human rights organisations and
relatives, were the disappearances of government critics, dissidents, and
Tamils - the notorious white vans allegedly prowling night time districts and
bundling people into the back became symbolic of the Rajapaksa's grip.
In 2010 President Rajapaksa, by now nothing less than a national hero, was
re-elected with an increased majority. But over the next couple of years
things were starting to unravel. As the truth slowly began to emerge about
events at the end of the war, there were growing international calls for
some kind of inquiry - calls which resulted in the creation of a UN-mandated
inquiry last March, due to report back to the UN Human Rights Council in
March this year.
An unassailable hero?
But until just a few months ago Rajapaksa seemed unassailable in Sri

Lanka. Riding a continuing tide of Sinhala-nationalistic rhetoric as the man

who won the war, the growing concerns over the widespread corruption and
nepotism of his rule and his assaults on judicial and media freedom
appeared initially to hardly dent his popularity.
Such was the apparent culture of impunity that while he changed the
constitution so he could stand for a third term and had immunity from
prosecution, on the streets violent racist mobs led by hard-line Buddhist
monks seemed free to turn their ire on the island's other minorities, the
Muslims and Christians, without serious challenge. At least four Muslims
died in their riots, to little apparent concern on the part of significant
sections of the Sinhala majority.
But now, suddenly, Rajapaksa looks vulnerable - though it is a change in
fortune which has little to do with the very serious allegations of command
responsibility for the massacres at the end of the war. Instead it is growing
concern over nepotism and corruption and, in particular, the concentration
of power and wealth in the hands of his brothers and, increasingly, his son
Namal.

Above centre: Mahinda Rajapaksa. Clockwise from top right: Namal

Rajapaksa, Chamal Rajapaksa, Gotabhaya Rajapaksa and Basil Rajapaksa.
He called the election two years early amid some concern that his
popularity could be waning - but it seems he had little anticipated how fast
that might happen, or how adept the opposition was at finding a "united
opposition" candidate, his former health minister, Maithripala Sirisena, who
has won over a significant numbers of defectors from his government.
The 'national question'
Rajapaksa has responded by ramping up the unashamed Sinhalanationalism of his rhetoric: the claim that he freed the nation from the

tyranny of the Tigers. His message to the Sinhala majority is designed to

reinforce their conviction that Sri Lanka is a Sinhala nation, indivisible - and
that the Tamils of the north and east must accept that, or have that forced
upon them.
Those Tamils, on the other hand, almost universally believe that they will
never be free and equal until they have political genuine autonomy.
Whether that can only be guaranteed through independence or whether
significant devolutionary or federal mechanisms can be made to work is the
subject of profound debate - and division - within the Tamil community.
This "national question" is the single most important issue facing Sri Lanka.
Yet it is the one issue on which you cannot find a sliver of difference
between Rajapaksa and his opponent, Maithripala Sirisena.
Both key candidates are united in declaring that they will not co-operate
with the UN inquiry into the war crimes and human rights abuses. Both
have pledged that senior commanders will not face legal action over war
crimes. Both are united in stating that Sri Lanka is indivisible. And both
calculate that the climate of Sinhala triumphalism following the war cannot
be questioned if they are to win the key Sinhala vote.
Ongoing Tamil oppression
On other issues there are important differences. Sirisena has pledged to
end the corruption of the Rajapaksa era, re-establish the independence of
the judiciary and the rule of law. He says he will reduce the powers of the
executive presidency and re-establish the primacy of parliament. But
Sirisena has made it clear he is in effect talking about those things only for
the Sinhala majority.
He will not challenge the ongoing repression of Tamils in the north and east.

He will not take on the hugely powerful and inflated military - or reduce
their bases in the north. He will not willingly entertain serious discussions
about the kind of political reforms that might satisfy the Tamils. He will not
seek justice for the war crimes that were committed at the end of the war.
Indeed, the former army commander, Sareth Fonseka - a man himself
facing charges of responsibility for war crimes - will probably be a key
member of his government.
Faced with that, some Tamils have taken the view that they cannot support
Sirisena against Rajapaksa, because neither offers any policy to recognise
the legitimate grievances of the Tamils.
But the majority of Tamils - including the sometimes fractious alliance which
is the main voice in the north and east, the Tamil National Alliance eventually threw their weight behind Sirisena on the grounds that although
he would not take them nearer to political solutions and justice, getting rid
of Rajapaksa would at least remove one block to such progress.
Many are conscious that it was the decision of former LTTE leader, Velupillai
Prabhakaran, to call for a boycott of the 2005 presidential election that
allowed his nemesis, Rajapkasa, to get into power in the first place.
Other key parties, including the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, which was a
vital part of Rajapkasa's United People's Freedom Alliance government,
have also backed Sirisena along with other government defectors.
Reigning in the family "I will end the Rajapaksa family rule", Sirisena
pledged at his final campaign rally on Monday - sowho are the four
brothers (pictured above) who dominate Sri Lankan politics? Mahinda
Rajapaksa, born in the tiny fishing village of Hambantota, is president of Sri
Lanka and also gave himself the roles of Minister of Defence and Urban
Development, Minister of Finance and Planning, Minister of Law and Order,
and Minister of Highways, Ports and Shipping. Billions upon billions of
rupees have been pumped into his birthplace - home to 10,000 people -

including investment in an international conference centre, a 235-acre

cinema site, a $1.4bn port and an international cricket stadium. Gotabhaya
Rajapaksa, alongside his brother Mahinda, is also alleged to have carried
out war crimes at the end of Sri Lanka's bloody civil war. He was appointed
Defence Secretary following his brother's initial election to the presidency in
2005 and it is claimed that he ordered the army to end the Sri Lankan civil
war "by any means necessary" - ahead of the bloody final assault that
claimed the lives of thousands of Tamil civilians. He is currently Secretary to
the Ministry of Defence and Urban Development. Basil Rajapaksa is Sri
Lanka's Minister for Economic Development, following his election to
government in 2010. He is also the national organiser for the Sri Lanka
Freedom Party, which is led by Mahinda. Another brother, Chamal
Rajapaksa, is the speaker of Sri Lanka's parliament. Between them the
Rajapaksa brothers control government budgets worth 530bn Sri Lankan
rupees (2.7bn) It is widely considered that Mahinda Rajapaksa is grooming
his son Namal, 28, for power. Namal was elected to parliament in 2010. He
is also the chairman of youth organisation Tharunyata Hetak - which has
been accused of carrying out promotional activities for Namal's father in the
run up to the 2015 election. He is also the owner, alongside his brother
Yoshitha, of the Carlton Sports Network.
Tomorrows result is very difficult to call, but such opinion polls as have
been conducted look close.
So two huge questions remain. Firstly, will the election be conducted fairly?
There have already been several reports of pre-election violence, mainly
against the opposition, the misuse of the military for campaigning, and the
profligate distribution of perks to government employees to buy their
loyalty.
But an even more important question is what will happen if Sirisena wins.
If Rajapaksa is beaten, a whole house of cards, carefully constructed under
his reign, comes down. The stakes are enormously high, and Rajapaksa may
not go quietly.
But there could be another effect. For the international community - even
for near neighbours like India - there is a suggestion that Rajapaksa is
becoming a bit of an embarrassment.

But some observers fear that the demise of his regime could also take the
pressure off in the international campaign for truth, justice and
accountability over the crimes at the end of the war.
If that international momentum is lost, they fear, the urgent need for
democratic and peaceful solutions to Sri Lankas underlying political
divisions could be further delayed.
Callum Macrae is a writer and film-maker who directed the feature
documentary No Fire Zone: The Killing Fields of Sri Lanka. Follow him
on @Callum_Macrae
Posted by Thavam