GEOG 310U/SCI 333U

Climate and Water Resources

Fall 2014

Inter-annual Variability
Notes/Overview/Study Guide
Purpose:
Inter-annual variability describes many climate and hydrologic phenomena that exhibit cyclic variability on
seasonal, multi-year, decadal, and longer time scales. These phenomena are often coupled oceanatmospheric systems and oscillating or vary over regional to global spatial scales. Understanding the
linkages and timing of inter-annual variability (also referred to as teleconnections) provides a higher
resolution means of modeling global climate systems, predicting long term weather and climate variability,
and transferring this knowledge to impacted human systems. Research in these systems also supports the
general understanding of the function of climate as a whole.
Definitions (as used in this class):
Teleconnection: Spatially and temporally large scale climate anomalies that influence the variability of
atmospheric circulation.
Index (pl. Indices): Metric for quantifying the variability of a climate phenomenon about a mean state or
value. Often composed of multiple signals of variability (e.g. pressure and temperature).
Oscillation: Bimodal variability of a climate phenomenon about a mean state or value (e.g. Southern
Oscillation).
Southern Oscillation: Sea level atmospheric pressure departures from normal between the western tropical
Pacific (Darwin, Australia) and the eastern tropical Pacific (Tahiti). Closely coupled with El Nio/La Nia
mechanisms.
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI): Standardized index measuring state and magnitude of sea level
atmospheric pressure differences between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. Negative ( Positive) phase: below
(above) normal pressure at Tahiti, above (below) normal pressure at Darwin, Australia. Negative phase
associated with warm water presence across the central and eastern Pacific (El Ni o).
Walker Circulation: Lower tropospheric wind pattern governing average equatorial Pacific air
circulation.
Thermocline: Threshold layer of rapid rapid temperature and density change in the oceanic water column,
separating warm surface waters from deeper cold water. Can act as a barrier to vertical circulation in nutrient
cycling within ocean water.
Kelvin Wave: A deep-water wave 5-10 cm high, and hundreds of kilometers wide. Associated with ENSO,
a Kelvin wave travels eastward in the Pacific, towards South America, transporting a warm water mass
eastward. Alternately rotating currents outside of equatorial waters (owing to Coriolis force) constrains the
flow of a Kelvin wave to an equatorial corridor.
ENSO (El Nio/Southern Oscillation): Coupled oceanic and atmospheric phenomena occurring every 2-7
years and persisting from 9 months to 2 years. Mechanisms involve a breakdown or reversal of equatorial
easterlies and coincident transfer of warm west-Pacific water to the central and eastern Pacific. Coupled
atmospheric changes result in shifts in sub-tropical and polar jet streams, significantly influencing seasonal
weather patterns across the globe.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): Variability in sea surface temperatures for the north- and tropicalPacific ocean. Closely linked with ENSO events.

GEOG 310U/SCI 333U

Climate and Water Resources

Fall 2014

Topics:
Teleconnections:
At the global scale, many teleconnection patterns and correlations have been identified. In some cases causal
mechanisms are partially understood. In other cases, the duration of periodicity, or insufficient historical
records impede the ability of researchers to understand the teleconnection mechanisms and their expression
in global climate.
In most cases, teleconnection patterns are analyzed and monitored through the creation of indices that
describe the magnitude and timing of phenomena about some standardized average phase.

Fig. 1: Various teleconnection phenomena

Southern Oscillation (SO):
SO is a bimodal variance in sea surface pressure measured between Darwin, Australia and Tahiti. It was
identified in the 1920's by Sir Gilbert Walker through an attempt to understand fluctuations in Indian SubContinent monsoon.
ENSO (El Nio Southern Oscillation):
Western Pacific Eastern Pacific normal conditions are characterized by Walker circulation. Atmospheric
pressure is low over Indonesia and Australia, and high in the central Pacific over Tahiti. Warm water pools at
the western margin of the ocean, driven by easterly trade winds. High heat energy and coincident
evaporation drive intense buildup of convective weather systems that then migrate eastward over the Pacific.
These systems cool and the denser air descends, warming adiabatically, over desert regions of the west coast
of South America, to return with trade wind circulation and easterlies across the Pacific.
El Nio and La Nia events tend to develop during the period Apr-Jun, reaching their maximum strength
during Dec-Feb. ENSO events typically persist for 9-12 months, though occasionally persisting for up to 2
years, with a recurrence interval of 2 to 7 years. This is the canonical event description. However, very
few ENSO events follow this pattern with any consistency. (E.g. the 1982-1983 event was characterized by a
delayed onset, with weakening trade winds in November of 1982.)
The warm phase of ENSO (El Nio) is characterized by a weakening or reversal of easterly trade winds in
the equatorial Pacific, which is correlated with an east-bound Kelvin wave of warm water from the Western
Pacific (true causality of warm phase events remains indistinct in the current research). This transfer of
available heat energy eastward leaves equatorial Australia and Indonesia in drought conditions, and brings
intense convective precipitation to the central Pacific as far as the Peruvian/Ecuadorian coast. The eastward
shift of intense precipitation perturbs high altitude jet stream circulation, influencing weather patterns at
higher latitudes. Warm waters at the west coast of South America, coupled with a depression or flattening of
the thermocline, result in the collapse of anchovy and sardine fisheries in these regions, generating economic
and cultural impacts. Similarly, intense precipitation in this coastal region results in flooding and landslide
hazards. ENSO-associated weather anomalies in North America can generate similar impacts relative to
precipitation intensity in Southern California and the Southwestern United States. Warm phase events are
said to dissipate as returning Rossby waves in the equatorial Pacific cancel out the warm water movement
anomaly.
The cool phase of ENSO (La Nia) is characterized by magnified normal Walker circulation conditions.
West Pacific rainfall tends to be elevated in magnitude, and the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. experiences
cold, wet winters, with high volumes of snowfall.

GEOG 310U/SCI 333U

Climate and Water Resources

Fall 2014

Fig. 2: Warm and cold phase ENSO schematics

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO):
PDO was identified through the correlation of known sea surface temperature variability with fisheries
productivity data for anadromous salmonid species along the west coast of North America. The phenomena
is closely correlated with ENSO, and this linkage tends to accentuate the regional effects of ENSO when both
indices are in phase.

Key Concepts (copied directly from lecture slides)

Teleconnections refers to atmospheric, oceanic, or coupled interactions and phenomena, whose
expression in one region influences climate, weather, and earth-atmosphere system events in another
region.
Teleconnections tend to be regional, synoptic, or global in scale, with periodicity in years to decades.
Southern Oscillation was the first quantified mode of inter-annual variability to be correlated with
distant climate and weather variability (e.g. Indian monsoon).
ENSO (El Nio Southern Oscillation) is the coupled, atmospheric oceanic phenomenon whereby shifts
in atmospheric pressure at the surface and sea surface temperature variability generate a significant
shift in equatorial precipitation. Concomitant circulation (atmosphere and oceanic) disruption
influences weather patterns throughout the world. Associated fluctuation of the thermocline at the
west coast of South America disrupts anchovy and sardine fisheries important to local economy and
culture.
El Nio is the warm phase of the ENSO phenomenon. La Nia is the cool phase of the phenomenon,
with similar, albeit opposite, expressions in weather phenomena throughout the globe. No two ENSO
events are alike, and the inherent variability confounds predictive capacity.
2014/2015 sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure indices, as well as other ENSO indicators
express high probability for an El Nio event.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a relatively recently identified signal of sea surface temperature
variability in the equatorial and north Pacific. PDO was initially identified through variability in
fisheries dynamics on the west coast of North America. PDO and ENSO are closely linked,
accentuating climate and weather effects when in similar phase.