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About 10 million US residential mortgages are underwater. This may lead to defaults
Jaimini Bhagwati / New Delhi January 15, 2010, 2:06 IST
January 2010 is the first month of the year and of the decade, and there is a thriving
market in making economic projections. It is evident that there has been a seismic shift in
the global economy’s tectonic plates. The gradual reordering of national economic
rankings over the last two decades came sharply into focus with the financial sector
meltdown at the end of 2008.
Looking ahead, it is reasonably safe to predict that for the next several years, GDP
growth rates in India, China and Brazil would be higher than those in the US, EU and
Japan. Table-I provides projected GDP growth rates for these countries. The accuracy of
these projections could be contested and would vary, depending on the underlying
assumptions. On balance, these numbers reflect a consensus that India, China and Brazil
are expected to grow faster than the other countries listed in the table.
The comparatively high growth numbers for India should not make us complacent since
the prospects over the next 12 months are far from certain. This article discusses the
possibility of a downturn in the US stemming once again from defaults in the real estate
sector, and the resulting implications for India.
Additionally, the crisis of 2008 has not been adequately utilised to make the required
improvements in regulatory and compensation norms. Consequently, bankers may rely on
short public memory and continue to depend on the Greenspan “put”. The difference is
that if there is a financial sector blowout in the second half of 2010, there would be
limitations to which taxpayer-funded support could be provided. Table-II details the
volumes of central bank and government aid for banks till June 2009 in the US and the
Euro area and November 2009 in the UK.
These were extremely generous lifelines for which taxpayers should have received long
maturity call options on bank equity with strike prices at the bottom-end of stock
valuations during the crisis of late 2008. This unrequited generosity has been fed by
accommodating monetary policy with historically low interest rates in the US, UK and
Japan. The resulting liquidity has funded a bounce-back in stock markets around the
world. For example, the S&P 500 stock index is now trading at 22 times trailing earnings,
which is well above S&P’s 135-year average for trailing P/E (price to earnings) of 15.
There are also indications that the Chinese housing market is overheating.
Consequently, the risks for India in the next one year are: (a) sharp reduction in OECD
demand which could again impact Indian exports negatively; and (b) shortage of export
and other credit. If this were to happen, Central and state government finances would be
adversely affected, which could further reduce our collective appetite for reforms. In
anticipation, we could take the following steps: (a) keep mopping up forex inflows and
tie up optional contracts for longer-term forex credit; (b) better align oil and gas pricing
to international prices; (c) push for an agreement on GST implementation timelines in the
first half of 2010 when states would be less apprehensive about their finances. Oil prices
may not pose a risk as a fall in global demand could lead to softening of oil prices.
However, if tensions rise in the Persian Gulf, oil prices could increase even as demand
drops in developed economies.
To sum up, it is increasingly likely that in the last quarter of 2010, there may be another
round of convulsions in western economies. The consequent opportunity costs for India
of not having insurance mechanisms in place and pushing for reforms could be higher
than usual. We are on a trajectory to reach 9 per cent GDP growth and if we slip back to
5-6 per cent, the economic and social costs resulting from reduced means to fund
employment generation could be very high.
j.bhagwati@gmail.com
The author is India’s Ambassador to the European Union, Belgium and Luxembourg.