EMBARGOED TO 00:05 HOURS GMT FRIDAY 26th DECEMBER 2014

World Economic League Table

2015 Highlights

Revisions to Chinas GDP mean that it is now forecast to overtake the

US in 2025 compared to 2028 in last years forecasts

The UK appears to have overtaken France this year to become the

worlds 5th largest economy (but as the 2014 GDP figures are $2,828bn
for the UK and $2,827bn for France, the gap is well within the margin
of error)

The rise of India looks unstoppable. India overtakes the UK in 2018 to

become the largest economy in the Commonwealth and the rise
continues by 2024 India is the worlds third largest economy

Korea is becoming an economic powerhouse (Gangnam Style?) as its

growth continues its league table position moves from 15th in 2013
to a solid 8th, just behind Germany in 2030

Russias economic woes, a likely weak rouble and a low price of oil
mean that it drops back from 8th position in 2013 to 10th in 2014 and
stays around that position to 2030

Germany slides back, held back by a declining population and the

likely weakness of the euro. In 2030 Germany, which for many years
was the worlds third largest economy, is overtaken by the UK for the
first time for since 1954 (and of course Germany then was only West
Germany) to drop to 7th place in the league.

The latest edition of Cebr Globals World Economic League Table (WELT) for 2015 reveals some
interesting moves as the worlds richest powers jockey for position. Cebr Global is the international
economics consultancy arm of Cebr, the economics consultancy.

The World Economic League Table tracks the size of different economies across the globe and projects
changes over the next 10 years. We call the score on the current year and forecast future changes to
2030.

This year the main revisions reflect data changes the Chinese have revised their GDP figures to
measure their service sector more accurately and added an amount as large as the whole Malaysian
economy. This and some other revisions mean that China now overtakes the US to become the worlds
largest economy in 2025 rather than 2028 as we thought a year ago.
We also revise the oil price assumption though not by much since last year we had already revised
down our medium term forecast for the price of oil to $85. Because of greater energy efficiency and
improved supply this has been revised down slightly further to $75.

And of course currencies always behave with a mind of their own which means that whatever we predict,
something else will happen. Three years ago we expected a medium term value for the rouble around 36
to the dollar. Now we expect 50, with the currency having dropped to 80 last week!

The key results for 2014 are shown in Table 1.

The UK overtakes France (just) having revised our GDP figures to include earnings from drugs and
prostitution. The French figures do not include these industries (which may well be larger than their British
counterparts!).
Russias well known economic woes show it dropping to tenth place. The collapse in the Turkish Lira
th

th

brings it down from 17 to 19 place. Korea moves up a place as do Italy (surprisingly but only because
the Russian economy is in even worse trouble than the Italian economy!) India, the Netherlands, Belgium
(who swap places with Norway) and Austria. Argentina drops 3 places as its economy collapses.

The changes to 2024 are shown in Table 2.

The fast moving emerging economies start to claim the top places China is still second but moving into
th

the overtaking lane to become the worlds No 1 economy. India moves into a strong 4 place. Brazil
th

moves into 6 position, splitting Germany and the UK (this report doesnt only revise the view of the future
the past is also revised and it now appears that our highlight of Brazil overtaking the UK in 2011, which
prompted the UK newspaper The Sun to append to its report on this on its page 2 a fetching picture of a
young lady on the Copacabana wearing a matching outfit to that of the lady on the opposite page, did not
actually happen!).
As globalisation reaches its mature phase in 2030, the worlds league settles down to a new ordering, with
China in first place and India in third. This is shown in Table 3.

This table also shows the UK overtaking Germany for the first time since 1954 (although if Scotland
breaks away, we calculate that this particular Il sorpasso will not happen until 2037). Of course, if
Germany left the euro, its currency strength would mean that the UK, even if Scotland were not to leave,
would be unlikely to overtake Germany until around 2050 by when the pressure of the UKs superior

demographics would prove irresistible.

Comments Cebr Chief Executive Douglas McWilliams: The fun of the world economic league table is that
it brings things back to hard figures. Countries like Russia and Argentina, who have invaded neighbouring
countries and whose leaders spout aggressively nationalistic rhetoric are brought down to earth by their
falls in the league table as their economies collapse.
The World Economic League table also shows the dramatic changes now taking place in the worlds
economic geography with slow growing European economies falling back and Asian economies, even
though their growth is slowing, catching up.
The only European economy that rises consistently in this league table is Sweden, where the economy
was revitalised by the previous government. There may be lessons here for other European economies.
Notes to Editors
Cebr Globals World Economic League Table (WELT) is an annual calculation by Cebr Global, Cebrs global
economic consultancy. The base data for 2013 is taken from the IMF World Economic Outlook and the GDP
forecast draws on Cebrs Global Prospects model to forecast growth, inflation and exchange rates.
Please refer to this in copy when quoting as The Cebr Global World Economic League Table or Cebr Globals
WELT.

The Global Prospects Report is a quarterly report every three months. The report is part of the prospects service
Cebrs macroeconomic advisory package for business.

Cebr Global is a leading independent commercial economics consultancy based in London. The report has been
co-authored by the Cebr staff whose details are below plus Osman Ismail who is unavailable on Boxing Day.

For more information, please contact:

Douglas McWilliams

+44 7525 287112

Charles Davis

+44 7808 770372

Danae Kyriakopolou

+44 7812 540030

Alastair Cavalla

+44 7845 361402

Cebr.com

@Cebr_uk

LinkedIn

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Telephone 020 7324 2850 Fax 020 7324 2855