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D xn
1 ; : : : ; X0
D x0 / D P.Xn D xn j Xn
D xn
for all n 1, x1 ; : : : ; xn 2 E.
1 /;
(1)
P.Xn 2 A j Fs / D P.Xn 2 A j Xs /;
(?)
Notation 2.
EX I F for F F means EX 1F .
Step 0.
D xn
2 E.
1 ; : : : ; X0
D x0 / D P.Xn 2 A j Xn
D xn
1 /;
(2)
Step 1. (?) obvious holds when s D n; we will first establish that (?) holds when s D n 1.
Let H be -system1 consisting of and all sets of the form fXn 1 D xn 1 ; : : : ; X0 D x0 g. It is clear that
EP.Xn 2 A j Xn
And for H D fXn
D xn
1 /I
1 ; : : : ; X0
EP.Xn 2 A j Xn
D EE1Xn 2A j Xn
1 I
(3)
D x0 g 2 H ,
1 /I H
D EP.Xn 2 A j Xn
D P.Xn 2 A j Xn
D P.Xn 2 A j Xn
1 /I Xn 1
D xn ; : : : ; X 0 D x0
D xn
1 /P.Xn
D xn
1 /P.H /;
1/
D xn ; : : : ; X 0 D x0 /
E1Xn 2A I H D EE1Xn 2A j Fn I H
D EP.Xn 2 A j Fn /I H
D P.Xn 2 A j Xn
D xn
(4)
(5)
1 ; : : : ; X0 D x0 /P.H /
where the first equality is the defining relation of the conditional expectation, since H 2 H Fn , and the second
equality is due to P.Xn 2 A j Fn / taking the constant value P.Xn 2 A j Xn 1 D xn 1 ; : : : ; X0 D x0 / on H .
Step 0 allows us to conclude that
EP.Xn 2 A j Xn
1 /I H
D E1Xn 2A I H ;
for all H 2 H :
(6)
1/
1 /I H
D E1Xn 2A I H ;
for all H 2 .H / D Fn
1/
D P.Xn 2 A j Fn
1 /,
1:
1 /:
(7)
(8)
Step 2.
(9)
P.Xn D xn j Xn
D x; Xs D xs /P.Xn
D x j Xs D x s /
D P.Xn D xn j Xs D xs /
(10)
in which
P.Xn D xn j Xn
D xn
1 ; Xs
D xs ; : : : ; X0 D x0 / D P.Xn D xn j Xn
D xn
1 ; Xs
D xs /;
(11)
by Step 1 as both are equal to the common value P.Xn D xn j Xn 1 D xn 1 /; and P.Xn 1 D xjXs D xs ; : : : ; X0 D
x0 / D P.Xn 1 D x j Xs D xs / by the induction hypothesis. The summation is taken over all such that P.Xn 1 D
x; Xs D s; : : : ; X0 D x0 / > 0.
Now we can extend this result to
P.Xn 2 A j Xs D xs ; : : : ; X0 D x0 / D P.Xn 2 A j Xs D xs /:
Step 3.
step:
(12)
Just as Step 0 provided for the result in Step 1, Step 2 (i.e. (12)) provides the essential ingredient in this final
P.Xn 2 A j Fs / D P.Xn 2 A j Xs / a.s.
(?)
2 As
1 ; : : : ; X0
1; A
E,
2 A0 / D P.Xn 2 A j Xs D x/:
(13)