Political-Security Research Council

The political-security panel will explore ASEAN management of the

single market and potential security challenges after the start of the
ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by 2015. The AEC would open up
borders among ASEAN member states for the transactions of goods,
services, capital and labour. However, several security questions, such as
transnational crime and terrorism, remain unresolved and could
exacerbate in a border-free ASEAN. Moreover, the management of a single
market would be challenging for ASEAN and perhaps necessitates some
form of regional economic institution. The panel discussion will be centred
on these 2 issues and how ASEAN could overcome such challenges.
The first discussion topic involves security problems facing ASEAN,
in particular transnational crime and terrorism. In October 2014, the
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) representative warned
that transnational organised crime in Southeast Asia alone is
conservatively estimated to generate close to USD $100 billion per year,
threatening intended economic and social benefits of regional
integration. The Southeast Asia Opium Survey 2014 released in last
December shows that poppy cultivation in the Golden Triangle of
Myanmar and Lao PDR is rising. The heroine produced in the area goes
from Myanmar to neighbouring countries as well as global markets.
Moreover, some ASEAN countries continue to face intra-state violence in
the forms of either terrorism or insurgency. Thailand, for example, has
fought decades-long insurgencies in the four southernmost provinces. Abu
Sayyaf and Jemaah Islamiyah are examples of transnational terrorist
network operating in Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, etc. With the
rise of the Islamic State (IS) in the Middle East, the priority of
counterterrorism is even higher up on both ASEAN and global security
agendas. Thus, ASEAN maritime security capabilities as well as crossborder police cooperation require substantial upgrade, and the political
and security architecture of ASEAN strengthened.
Compared to the AEC, the political-security pillar of ASEAN has seen
only limited progress. Although ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and ASEAN
Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) have been established over the years,
ASEAN emphasis on preserving sovereignty of each member means that
the overall political and security regional architecture of ASEAN,
sometimes dubbed a paper tiger, remains weak. The report from Friends
of Europes debate in November 2014 pointed to the lack of effective
opposition to China in the South China Sea, and the inability to resolve

internal conflicts such as the South Thailand insurgency. In addition,

member states such as the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia have
preferred defence ties with the US rather than other partners in ASEAN.
The second issue is the management of the single market. The AEC
would bring not only trade opportunity but also economic challenges on a
regional scale such as labour qualification, competition, and corporate
regulation. Jayant Menon, lead economist at the Asian Development Bank,
observes that ASEAN will fall shorts of its goals by 2015. The ASEAN
Economic Community Scorecard from March 2013 suggests that the
region had reached only 77.5% of its targets between 2008-March 2013.
The remaining challenges include:
-

Eliminating non-tariff barriers

Strengthening trade facilitation by ensuring implementation of
national single windows in the newer member countries to complete
the ASEAN Single Window
Further liberalising investment and services trade by improving the
business climate and reducing the cost of doing business, including
prescribing standard rules governing licensing and other regulatory
regimes
Expanding the number of mutual recognition agreements and
ensuring that they are implemented in a way that leads to increased
skilled labour mobility
(Menon, 2014)

Clearly, a stronger ASEAN institution to push for integration is

required. The main institution is the ASEAN Secretariat which, according to
Benny Hutabarat, executive director of ASEAN Consulting Group, is
severely underfunded and understaffed, compared to the European
Commission, its EU counterpart. For instance, in 2012, there were just 300
people in the ASEAN Secretariat, while the European Commission
employees nearly 34,000 people. Quite often, ASEAN members pursue
narrow national interests for short-term benefits. For instance, Indonesia
has not ratified the ASEAN Multilateral Agreement for the Full
Liberalisation of Air Freight Services because it wants to protect domestic
aviation industry from regional competitors such as Malaysia, Singapore
and Thailand. The current ASEAN Way of non-interference is unlikely to
solve this issue. Furthermore, a stronger ASEAN institution would enable
member states to reach common voice more easily. This is crucial if
ASEAN is to play a more central role in Asian and global politics, for
example, the negotiation for the Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership (RCEP). It remains to be seen which direction ASEAN would
take to manage regionally-integrated market.

The AEC will lead to deeper economic integration for ASEAN

countries. It will also have political-security implications for ASEAN. There
have been some concerns regarding worsening security threats such as
transnational crime and terrorism on which the panel is likely to focus.
ASEAN institutions seem to lack the strength necessary to manage the
process of integration. Clearly, both issues require effective regional
institutional building. Uncertainty about the impacts of all these
challenges and the manner in which the progress may be unfolded will be
fascinating subjects for discussion in the political-security panel at the
Warwick ASEAN Conference 2015.

References
ASEAN Economic Community 2015 and its impact on the Security
Architecture of South East Asia. (2014). In: Friends of Europe. [online]
Available at:
http://www.friendsofeurope.org/media/uploads/2014/12/ASEANEconomic-Community-REPORT.pdf [Accessed 9 Jan. 2015].
Hutabarat, B. (2014). ASEAN Economic Community 2015: Will it happen?.
[online] Thejakartapost.com. Available at:
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/11/24/asean-economiccommunity-2015-will-it-happen.html [Accessed 10 Jan. 2015].
Menon, J. (2014). An ASEAN Economic Community by 2015? | VOX, CEPRs
Policy Portal. [online] Voxeu.org. Available at:
http://www.voxeu.org/article/asean-economic-community-2015
[Accessed 11 Jan. 2015].
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), (2014). Transnational
organized crime worth at least USD $100 billion per year poses
challenges to Asian integration. [online] UNODC.org. Available at:
http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/frontpage/2014/October/Transnationalorganized-crime-worth-at-least-100-billion-per-year-poses-challengesto-Asian-integration.html [Accessed 12 Jan. 2015].
United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), (2014). Southeast
Asia Opium Survey 2014. 1st ed. [ebook] Bangkok. Available at:
http://www.unodc.org/documents/southeastasiaandpacific//Publication

s/2014/ops/SE_ASIA_opium_poppy_2014_web.pdf [Accessed 12 Jan.

2015].