Probability Theory, Math 170a, Fall 2014 - Homework 1 solutions

Problem 1. Show that for any sets A and B

P(A B) P(A) P(A B).
Solution: One way to solve it is to notice that A B A and A A B and use the properties
of the probability law (in particular the monotonicity: if S T then P(S) P(T )).
Problem 2. We have a very weird dice, for which we know that the probability that the number
is strictly less than 5 is 0.6, the probability that we get 4 is equal to 0.2 and the probability
that the number is strictly bigger than 2 is 0.9. Show that this information is not sufficient to
determine the probability law, that is there is more than one probability law for this experiment
which has the above properties.
Solution: This probability has to satisfy the following
P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) = 0.6
P(4) = 0.2
P(3) + P(4) + P(5) + P(6) = 0.9
P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(5) + P(6) = 1.
This can be viewed as a system of 4 equations with 6 unknowns (P(1), P(2), P(3), P(4), P(5),
P(6)) and therefore there are multiple solutions. Note that this is not a sufficient argument, since
we also require the probabilities to be in the interval [0, 1]. To finish the argument we actually
present two sets of solutions, that is two probability laws which satisfy the requirements. For
example, observe that last two equations imply P(1) + P(2) = 0.1, so take P(1) = P(2) = 0.05,
and since P(4) = 0.2 the first equation forces us to choose P(3) = 0.3. Then, P(5) and P(6)
can be chosen arbitrarily as long as their sum is 0.9 0.3 0.2 = 0.4 (from the third equation).
So you can choose P(5) = 0.2 and P(6) = 0.2 or perhaps P(5) = 0.3 and P(6) = 0.1. So go
ahead and check that both
P(1) = 0.05, P(2) = 0.05, P(3) = 0.3, P(4) = 0.2, P(5) = 0.2, P(6) = 0.2
and
P(1) = 0.05, P(2) = 0.05, P(3) = 0.3, P(4) = 0.2, P(5) = 0.1, P(6) = 0.3
satisfy the required conditions.
Problem 3. You want to buy a car on a certain website. During the purchase they first ask
you for the model (you can choose between 3 models: A, B and C), then they ask you for the
engine type (you have two options: normal and hybrid), then they ask you for the transmission
type (you have two options: manual and automatic), and finally they ask you to choose one
of 5 different colors. In how many ways can you configure your car, if you know that the only
restriction is that hybrid must have an automatic transmission.
Solution: Total number of possibilities (disregarding the restriction) is 3 2 2 5 = 60.
However we have 3 1 1 5 = 15 of these possibilities which include both hybrid and manual
options and are not allowed. Therefore, there are 60 15 = 45 possibilities.
1

Problem 4. On a lottery ticket you choose and circle six numbers out of the numbers 1, 2, 3,
... 44, 45. The next day at the lottery six numbers are chosen at random (with all combinations
having the same probability) out of the numbers 1, 2, 3, ... 44, 45. You win the prize if on your
lottery ticket you have guessed exactly three out of this six numbers. What is the probability
you win the prize.


To win, the 6 numbers drawn
Solution: There are 45
6 possibilities for the lottery outcome.


6
must agree with exactly 3 of your numbers: there are 3 possibilities to choose these 3 numbers




= 39
out of your 6, and 456
3 to choose 3 numbers which dont match with any of yours. So
3
the answer is



6 39
3

3 .

45
6

Problem 5. You have an 8 8 chessboard and a token at the low left corner square. You want
to move it to the top right corner square. In the questions below you need to compute in how
many ways you can do that given the restrictions, that is how many such token trajectories
exists.
a) In how many ways can you move the token if, at each move youre only allowed to move
the token one square to the right or one square up?
b) In how many ways can you move the token if in addition youre also allowed to move the
token diagonally (in one move you can also move it to the adjacent right up square).
Solution:
a) To reach the square we need to move the token 7 times to the left and 7 times up in any
order. Each trajectory can be encoded by a list of 7 Ls and 7 Us. For example, if the first
two move are to the left, followed by 3 moves up, then left, then
up and so on we encode
it with LLUUULU... We can arrange 7Ls and 7Us like this in 14
7 ways, so there are this
many ways to move the token.
b) This is similar as before, but the diagonal moves are denoted with
D. If we have no diagonal
14!
moves the question is the same as before and the answer is 14
7 = 7!7! . If we make only
one diagonal move then we have to make 6 left moves, 6 up moves and 1 diagonal move.
13!
This corresponds to arranging 6 Ls, 6 Us and 1D on the line which can be done in 6!6!1!
. If
we make 2 diagonal moves, we need to arrange 5 Ls and 5Us and 2Ds which can be done
12!
in 5!5!2!
, and so on. If there are 7 diagonal moves, there are no right/up moves and there
is only one way to do this. Therefore, the asnwer is
14!
13!
12!
11!
10!
9!
8!
7!
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
.
7!7! 6!6!1! 5!5!2! 4!4!3! 3!3!4! 2!2!5! 1!1!6! 0!0!7!
(As 0! = 1, the last term is indeed equal to 1.)
Problem 6. Assume that 0 m n. Give a combinatorial proof that
  X

n 
n
k1
=
.
m
m1
k=m

(Hint: how many m-element subsets of {1, 2, . . . , n} are there which have k as the largest
element?) Plug in m = 2 here, what familiar formula do you get?
2

Solution: The largest element can be one of m, m + 1, . . . , n. If k is the largest element, then
we only

need to choose m 1 elements from the set {1, 2, , . . . , k 1} which can be done in
k1
m1 ways. Therefore, both sides count the number of m-element subsets of {1, 2, . . . , n}.